To blow up or not? A lot hinges on #20

[vwoodruff]

If I'm Ainge, the first order of business in moving forward is determining what Ray's contract expectations are for 2012-13 and beyond. If he's willing to sign on for a MLE-level (or less) contract and come off the bench, it is a far different cry than shooting for $8M or so a year. If Ray's in the latter camp, I think Ainge has to blow it up. KG has little trade value, and PP could net something at this point.

KG's future in Boston would then depend on whether the Cs are going to contend and if he wants to sign for a low number and provide leadership in a more limited role or retire.

[lepoooo]

Even a MLE for KG or Allen is too much IMO.

This team is gonna suck, who cares if Allen and KG are on board.

Vet min is the max in my mind they deserve, they made enough money. The funny thing is, lots of fans are talking loyalty but you'll see that when it's time to resign them (if they are still in Boston), they will probably argue over a few millions. Loyalty is a one way road theses days, aside from some counter-examples (first to come to mind is Haslem in Miami).

[vwoodruff]

My point is this - Ray is the key cog in whether they rebuild on the fly or go into full "deconstruct" mode.

If they think they can flip PP for a key asset, pick up a FA drink the offseason, and retool with draft picks or by leveraging draft picks, Ray Allen off the bench is a huge piece to have. If it goes to full "blow it up" mode, Ainge needs to get some value for Allen. My point is this - if Allen is looking for another payday, I think the Cs are better off going into to "blow it up" mode versus "rebuilding on the fly."

[GranTur]

Ray and KG are still worth $5 million each next year. That said, they will accept anything from Boston if it signs a Dwight Howard/Kevin Love type so they can contend right away.

If the Celtics aren't contending, KG will retire and Ray will sign for mini-MLE with Boston to finish his career.

[vwoodruff]

If the Celtics aren't contending, KG will retire and Ray will sign for mini-MLE with Boston to finish his career.

I think that is a big assumption - given that Ray can be good for 15-20ppg a night and is a huge weapon for a contender. If I was Ray and the Cs went into rebuild mode, I'd rather take the mini-MLE from a contender than languish for the same money in Boston.

[Q_FBE]

I think we are looking at a complete rebuild no matter what. That started last year by trading Kendrick Perkins and accelerated with the loss of use for Jeff Green. I think Danny has already started the rebuild process and that is serving as a distraction to the Celtics. We will have a fire sale if the losing continues.

[GranTur]

If the Celtics aren't contending, KG will retire and Ray will sign for mini-MLE with Boston to finish his career.

I think that is a big assumption - given that Ray can be good for 15-20ppg a night and is a huge weapon for a contender. If I was Ray and the Cs went into rebuild mode, I'd rather take the mini-MLE from a contender than languish for the same money in Boston.

Respect to Ray, but next year he'll be 13 PPG on efficient numbers. He doesn't want to go to another team. He has a stable family life here and he loves the Celtic organization and what it does for him.

[vwoodruff]

I am sure Danny sees a "rebuild on the fly" option.

Let's say that he can parlay Pierce for Gay, for example. That gives the Cs Ray and Rondo as assets, as well as cap space. If the cap space can be used for a franchise player, there is the opportunity to resign KG and Allen for spot roles on an extremely competitive team.

[tyrone biggums]

Even a MLE for KG or Allen is too much IMO.

This team is gonna suck, who cares if Allen and KG are on board.

Vet min is the max in my mind they deserve, they made enough money. The funny thing is, lots of fans are talking loyalty but you'll see that when it's time to resign them (if they are still in Boston), they will probably argue over a few millions. Loyalty is a one way road theses days, aside from some counter-examples (first to come to mind is Haslem in Miami).

I highly disagree that the MLE for Allen is too much. If anything, we would be lucky for him to settle for the MLE.

[Marcus13]

Even a MLE for Allen is too much IMO.

Sillyness.  He's still a Top 5 SG in the league and you dont want to give him the MLE?  So your logic is "If we think we'll suck, let's suck as bad as possible"?

[lepoooo]

Even a MLE for Allen is too much IMO.

Sillyness.  He's still a Top 5 SG in the league and you dont want to give him the MLE?  So your logic is "If we think we'll suck, let's suck as bad as possible"?

My logic is "let's suck as possible", yep.

What's the point of being a middle-of-the-pack team?

Ray is great, and he probably could find a team willing him to pay more than a MLE, but young players and picks are more valuable now.

If DA doesn't find a trade for him, he will be back next year I guess, but it's a big IF, because he is the easiest member of the big 3 to move given his "small contract" and trade value.

[vwoodruff]

I don't think the choice is between "sucking as bad as possible" and "middle-of-the-pack."

Let's take a reasonable scenario if Ainge decides to disassemble the Big 3:

(1) Trade Pierce for Gay or Granger

(2) If Ray won't come back on a contract that works for the Cs, trade him for an expiring and either a #1 pick in the 2012 draft or a prospect - something along the lines of to Denver for Andre Miller and Denver's #1 or Kenneth Faried and a second rounder.

(3) See whether KG comes back for cheap or retires

That puts the Cs in a great position to retool in the offseason with 2 to 3 first rounders and a bunch of cap space. The cap space serves two big purposes - the ability to sign a big FA directly or the possibility of using the 1st round picks and the cap space to acquire a maligned star.

I don't think the Cs need to hit bottom at all.

[LarBrd33]

Nothing hinges on any of the 4 top guys.  KG, Ray and Pierce go back to their 2008 post-prime form and it isn't going to make a lick of difference.  We have Jermaine O'Neal starting at center and our best bench guys are Pietris and Bass.  Our backup center doesn't even belong in the NBA (stiesma)... You can't win a championship with that.

Had Jeff Green and Krstik played this year, our chances would be a bit improved.  At this point, we're chasing a pipe dream.  The 2011 Celtics are no more likely to win a title than the 2002 Celtics were.  Have all the green faith you want... its not happening unless we luck into a starting center (A Chris Kaman buyout or something) and some depth (pray that Wilson Chandler or Kirilenko come back to the states before the season ends and miraculously decide to sign with Boston).

I know it's sad, but our best move at this point is to move any of the old guys for expiring contracts and draft picks.  It's going to take 5 years minimum for us to return to being competitive... might as well get a jump on things as soon as possible... and utilize Ray as a trade asset while we still have him.

If "a lot" hinges on Ray... I'd say it hinges on our ability to trade him for a late 1st rounder.

[LarBrd33]

I don't think the choice is between "sucking as bad as possible" and "middle-of-the-pack."

Let's take a reasonable scenario if Ainge decides to disassemble the Big 3:

(1) Trade Pierce for Gay or Granger

(2) If Ray won't come back on a contract that works for the Cs, trade him for an expiring and either a #1 pick in the 2012 draft or a prospect - something along the lines of to Denver for Andre Miller and Denver's #1 or Kenneth Faried and a second rounder.

(3) See whether KG comes back for cheap or retires

That puts the Cs in a great position to retool in the offseason with 2 to 3 first rounders and a bunch of cap space. The cap space serves two big purposes - the ability to sign a big FA directly or the possibility of using the 1st round picks and the cap space to acquire a maligned star.

I don't think the Cs need to hit bottom at all.

Gay and Granger are nowhere near the players Pierce was in his prime... and I'd go as far as to say that Pierce will remain better than them for the next couple years despite his age.   I'm not even convinced Gay and Granger are THAT much better than Jeff Green (who averaged similar numbers to them while playing second fiddle to Durant)... and their contracts are certainly not worth taking on.

In no way would trading Pierce for Gay improve our championship chances in the short term... and in no way would adding Gay's bloated contract improve our rebuilding in the long term.

Only move is to trade Pierce for expiring contracts + young guys on rookie deals or draft picks.

[PosImpos]

I'm 90% sure KG will retire after this season, the way he's looked so far this year.