HOLLINGER picks celtics 3rd in East 43-23

[mmmmm]

 Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

This emphasizes a point I keep repeating:  That arguably the most killer injury to our team last year was Delonte's.  Because he missed so much time, we had to keep Rondo on the floor a ton (right behind Ray in minutes played).  I don't think his plantar fasciitis ever had enough rest (almost the only real therapy) to completely heal and he was simply worn down by an assortment of bangs & bruises.     It is really hard to drive aggressively when your feet feel like you have sharp pointy rocks inside your socks & shoes.  And that is what PF feels like.

As Rondo wore down, so did our offense, as it clearly tracks with his aggression level.

It is telling that after getting a few days of real rest at the end of the season, he finally started to play better in the playoffs.   But then, his elbow got bent backward and ...

I totally concur with you that a healthy big man rotation of KG/JO/Wilcox/Bass/JaJuan is far better than anything we fielded last year because except for a brief window in the Fall, we never had more than TWO of our centers healthy all year!

Obviously the period of time when we had healthy Shaq and healthy Rondo along with the Big 3 was a brief moment of pure basketball heaven that we'll likely never see again.  But it had no healthy depth behind it and it couldn't (didn't) last.

[Kane3387]

 Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

This emphasizes a point I keep repeating:  That arguably the most killer injury to our team last year was Delonte's.  Because he missed so much time, we had to keep Rondo on the floor a ton (right behind Ray in minutes played).  I don't think his plantar fasciitis ever had enough rest (almost the only real therapy) to completely heal and he was simply worn down by an assortment of bangs & bruises.     It is really hard to drive aggressively when your feet feel like you have sharp pointy rocks inside your socks & shoes.  And that is what PF feels like.

As Rondo wore down, so did our offense, as it clearly tracks with his aggression level.

It is telling that after getting a few days of real rest at the end of the season, he finally started to play better in the playoffs.   But then, his elbow got bent backward and ...

I totally concur with you that a healthy big man rotation of KG/JO/Wilcox/Bass/JaJuan is far better than anything we fielded last year because except for a brief window in the Fall, we never had more than TWO of our centers healthy all year!

Obviously the period of time when we had healthy Shaq and healthy Rondo along with the Big 3 was a brief moment of pure basketball heaven that we'll likely never see again.  But it had no healthy depth behind it and it couldn't (didn't) last.

I agree with the sentiment we needed more rest for Rondo. Yet, in the end he was still performing in the playoffs as expected before the injury. Fact is we never really got to see how we stacked up with a healthy Rondo. We were a Rondo missed layup from a series at 2-2. Honestly the cold 4th qtrs is what did us in. We were in every game of that series until the 4th when Miami went on runs. Miami didn't really upgrade that much with Battier and basically stood pat. We have a better team today then we did in the playoffs last year if Quise is playing like he was pre-injury.

Quise was very solid last year and his production before the spinal injury was better then the production we ever got from Green.

We don't have the flash but we are capable of beating Miami and Chicago in the playoffs. We match up well with Chicago. Both teams have great starting 5s. As far as Miami, we need rondo to play at his playoff level in 2010, we need to be healthy, and we need to constantly close down the paint and get back on D.

[indeedproceed]

 Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

This emphasizes a point I keep repeating:  That arguably the most killer injury to our team last year was Delonte's.  Because he missed so much time, we had to keep Rondo on the floor a ton (right behind Ray in minutes played).  I don't think his plantar fasciitis ever had enough rest (almost the only real therapy) to completely heal and he was simply worn down by an assortment of bangs & bruises.     It is really hard to drive aggressively when your feet feel like you have sharp pointy rocks inside your socks & shoes.  And that is what PF feels like.

As Rondo wore down, so did our offense, as it clearly tracks with his aggression level.

It is telling that after getting a few days of real rest at the end of the season, he finally started to play better in the playoffs.   But then, his elbow got bent backward and ...

I totally concur with you that a healthy big man rotation of KG/JO/Wilcox/Bass/JaJuan is far better than anything we fielded last year because except for a brief window in the Fall, we never had more than TWO of our centers healthy all year!

Obviously the period of time when we had healthy Shaq and healthy Rondo along with the Big 3 was a brief moment of pure basketball heaven that we'll likely never see again.  But it had no healthy depth behind it and it couldn't (didn't) last.

I don't disagree with any of this. In fact, I agree with all of it. I stand by the notion, however, that the Boston Celtics since 2008, have played worse after Christmas, and its because the older players get tired, get bored, or get injured. The condensed schedule only emphasizes this, it doesn't help it.

[mmmmm]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

In fact, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Celtics had the league's best record over the first 20 games or so.

Couple that with no real solution on a defensive center next to KG (barring medical miracles for JO), and I just don't see it.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

Shaq was not a "defensive center" for us.  Sure no one tried posting him up, but his help defense mostly consisted of really hard fouls and stern glances at perimeter shooting big men.  I think Chris Wilcox can equal Shaq's contributions to the team (only better because we can expect him to play for more minutes and many more games). 

Perk/JO contributed little to our regular season success.  KG was our defense.

Wow do you overrate Chris Wilcox (and I like that he is on our team).

First of all, Shaq is in no way a defensive center yet ultiamtely he has worth on defense by the size of his body alone.  He makes opponents think twice about going in the paint and if they do he has a big body to check them with.  Fouls also have their worth.  And so does defensive rebounding, which Shaq certainly did.

Second of all, Shaq in our lineup last year turned us from a middle of the pack offensive team to maybe the best in the league (right up there).  His ability to score in the post was huge in opening up the floor and he proved to be a great target for Rondo around the rim unlike anyone Rondo has ever played with.  Part of the reason Ainge made the Perk trade was that he felt he had enough at C and Shaq actually made us better overall than Perk did.

Will Chris Wilcox do that?  NO. No he won't and I don't know how you are even proposing that.  Sure he will probably be healthy where Shaq wasn't, and if that's your argument okay, but when both are on the floor for us Shaq is WAY more valuable.

Well, I personally won't begin to try to compare Wilcox to Shaq and I doubt we'll ever see as dominant a starting 5 as we had, however briefly, in the Fall of 2010 with Healthy Shaq(tm) + Big 4.

But Wilcox DOES possess some qualities that probably amplify his value to the Celtics over what his value has been elsewhere.  Although not a superstar and he has his weaknesses, his _strengths_ do include a very strong offensive game near the rim.  So he should, indeed provide a similar boost to our offensive efficiency to Shaq in that when he's near the post, defenses will not be able to sag their C off him to put two big men doubling on KG (something that would routinely happen when we had Perkins).

If defensive bigs try to sag off him, or switch a small onto him, then Rondo will have an easy lob target because that's a play Wilcox will definitely be able to finish.

My only concerns about Wilcox are on defense.   However, he's not a _bad_ defender - just not a great one.  And like others, I agree that KG has a magical way of boosting the defensive props of whomever is playing behind him.

[Evantime34]

 Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

This emphasizes a point I keep repeating:  That arguably the most killer injury to our team last year was Delonte's.  Because he missed so much time, we had to keep Rondo on the floor a ton (right behind Ray in minutes played).  I don't think his plantar fasciitis ever had enough rest (almost the only real therapy) to completely heal and he was simply worn down by an assortment of bangs & bruises.     It is really hard to drive aggressively when your feet feel like you have sharp pointy rocks inside your socks & shoes.  And that is what PF feels like.

As Rondo wore down, so did our offense, as it clearly tracks with his aggression level.

It is telling that after getting a few days of real rest at the end of the season, he finally started to play better in the playoffs.   But then, his elbow got bent backward and ...

I totally concur with you that a healthy big man rotation of KG/JO/Wilcox/Bass/JaJuan is far better than anything we fielded last year because except for a brief window in the Fall, we never had more than TWO of our centers healthy all year!

Obviously the period of time when we had healthy Shaq and healthy Rondo along with the Big 3 was a brief moment of pure basketball heaven that we'll likely never see again.  But it had no healthy depth behind it and it couldn't (didn't) last.

I don't disagree with any of this. In fact, I agree with all of it. I stand by the notion, however, that the Boston Celtics since 2008, have played worse after Christmas, and its because the older players get tired, get bored, or get injured. The condensed schedule only emphasizes this, it doesn't help it.

The hope (as it always has been) is that the bench can take an increased role this year allowing the Celtics to perform at the early season level for the entire year. You make a compelling argument but I'm going to believe until they give me a reason not to rather than believe in the past empirical evidence. Anyone else is welcome to blissfully stick their heads in the sand with me.

[mmmmm]

I think Bass might be the best backup big we have ever had. It's definitely a realistic possibility. Eventually he will be the fifth guy to finish games even if JO is healthy. Watch.

Well, JO is by far a better defender than Bass so unless the matchups favor going small, JO would be my _usual_ preference to finish games.  Defensive stops are huge in the closing minute of a tight game.  Both have offensive value, though their strengths are different.

Both JO and Bass both shoot free throws at a very nice clip so I expect both to be useful at the end of games, depending on the matchups.

[mmmmm]

I agree with the sentiment we needed more rest for Rondo. Yet, in the end he was still performing in the playoffs as expected before the injury. Fact is we never really got to see how we stacked up with a healthy Rondo. We were a Rondo missed layup from a series at 2-2. Honestly the cold 4th qtrs is what did us in. We were in every game of that series until the 4th when Miami went on runs. Miami didn't really upgrade that much with Battier and basically stood pat. We have a better team today then we did in the playoffs last year if Quise is playing like he was pre-injury.

Quise was very solid last year and his production before the spinal injury was better then the production we ever got from Green.

We don't have the flash but we are capable of beating Miami and Chicago in the playoffs. We match up well with Chicago. Both teams have great starting 5s. As far as Miami, we need rondo to play at his playoff level in 2010, we need to be healthy, and we need to constantly close down the paint and get back on D.

The part in bold red is emphasized for truth.  Statistically, it was just the unlucky confluence of our guys shooting abnormally cold from outside while at the same time their guys shot abnormally hot from outside.  Often way, way outside!

I definitely don't disagree that Rondo was performing better in the playoffs (until his arm was ripped off).   Just that little bit of extra rest before and during the playoffs probably benefited him more than any of our 'old' guys!

[BballTim]

 Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

This emphasizes a point I keep repeating:  That arguably the most killer injury to our team last year was Delonte's.  Because he missed so much time, we had to keep Rondo on the floor a ton (right behind Ray in minutes played).  I don't think his plantar fasciitis ever had enough rest (almost the only real therapy) to completely heal and he was simply worn down by an assortment of bangs & bruises.     It is really hard to drive aggressively when your feet feel like you have sharp pointy rocks inside your socks & shoes.  And that is what PF feels like.

As Rondo wore down, so did our offense, as it clearly tracks with his aggression level.

It is telling that after getting a few days of real rest at the end of the season, he finally started to play better in the playoffs.   But then, his elbow got bent backward and ...

I totally concur with you that a healthy big man rotation of KG/JO/Wilcox/Bass/JaJuan is far better than anything we fielded last year because except for a brief window in the Fall, we never had more than TWO of our centers healthy all year!

Obviously the period of time when we had healthy Shaq and healthy Rondo along with the Big 3 was a brief moment of pure basketball heaven that we'll likely never see again.  But it had no healthy depth behind it and it couldn't (didn't) last.

I don't disagree with any of this. In fact, I agree with all of it. I stand by the notion, however, that the Boston Celtics since 2008, have played worse after Christmas, and its because the older players get tired, get bored, or get injured. The condensed schedule only emphasizes this, it doesn't help it.

  I'll go along with bored.

  I thought that the worst thing for the Celts last year was Rondo's time on team USA. I don't think Rondo was at his healthiest when the playoffs ended (nearly July) and he spent much of the offseason *not* resting/recuperating. He started the season great but his body had trouble holding up during the season. I'm hoping the lockout will help him out in this regard.

[snively]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

In fact, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Celtics had the league's best record over the first 20 games or so.

Couple that with no real solution on a defensive center next to KG (barring medical miracles for JO), and I just don't see it.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

Shaq was not a "defensive center" for us.  Sure no one tried posting him up, but his help defense mostly consisted of really hard fouls and stern glances at perimeter shooting big men.  I think Chris Wilcox can equal Shaq's contributions to the team (only better because we can expect him to play for more minutes and many more games). 

Perk/JO contributed little to our regular season success.  KG was our defense.

Wow do you overrate Chris Wilcox (and I like that he is on our team).

First of all, Shaq is in no way a defensive center yet ultiamtely he has worth on defense by the size of his body alone.  He makes opponents think twice about going in the paint and if they do he has a big body to check them with.  Fouls also have their worth.  And so does defensive rebounding, which Shaq certainly did.

Second of all, Shaq in our lineup last year turned us from a middle of the pack offensive team to maybe the best in the league (right up there).  His ability to score in the post was huge in opening up the floor and he proved to be a great target for Rondo around the rim unlike anyone Rondo has ever played with.  Part of the reason Ainge made the Perk trade was that he felt he had enough at C and Shaq actually made us better overall than Perk did.

Will Chris Wilcox do that?  NO. No he won't and I don't know how you are even proposing that.  Sure he will probably be healthy where Shaq wasn't, and if that's your argument okay, but when both are on the floor for us Shaq is WAY more valuable.

Sorry, just have to disagree here.  Shaq's size may have made him the better defensive player overall to Chris Wilcox, but the difference is not all that significant.  Without KG, Shaq would have been the same defensive liability he was with Cleveland.  And Shaq was no better on the defensive boards than Wilcox is.

As to your second point, Shaq barely posted up in his time with the C's.   He primarily finished looks created by Rondo and the Big 3.  Wilcox is similarly capable as a finisher: he has good hands, good touch, quick jumping ability and good strength.  Shaq had more girth and power, but Wilcox is capable of a greater range of finishes around the basket.  This is the main reason Wilcox is in the league: he's one of the best big man finishers around. 

Last year's Shaq was not a great all-around player so I don't think I'm overrating Wilcox with the comparison.  He did a few things very well, and it happened that those few things were magnified by the contributions of the starters (which I admit I didn't see coming: I thought Shaq would be better off as a scorer/rebounder off the bench.)  In another situation, he would have been a defensive liability who hurt more than he helped, just as Wilcox has been for many of his teams (and might still be if not utilized correctly).

[BballTim]

I think Bass might be the best backup big we have ever had. It's definitely a realistic possibility.

  By "ever" I'll assume you mean since we traded for KG and Ray, otherwise McHale, Walton and a host of others would disagree with this.

  That said, I'm pretty psyched about Bass as well. Good finisher, good outside shooter.

[snively]

  Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

This emphasizes a point I keep repeating:  That arguably the most killer injury to our team last year was Delonte's.  Because he missed so much time, we had to keep Rondo on the floor a ton (right behind Ray in minutes played).  I don't think his plantar fasciitis ever had enough rest (almost the only real therapy) to completely heal and he was simply worn down by an assortment of bangs & bruises.     It is really hard to drive aggressively when your feet feel like you have sharp pointy rocks inside your socks & shoes.  And that is what PF feels like.

As Rondo wore down, so did our offense, as it clearly tracks with his aggression level.

It is telling that after getting a few days of real rest at the end of the season, he finally started to play better in the playoffs.   But then, his elbow got bent backward and ...

I totally concur with you that a healthy big man rotation of KG/JO/Wilcox/Bass/JaJuan is far better than anything we fielded last year because except for a brief window in the Fall, we never had more than TWO of our centers healthy all year!

Obviously the period of time when we had healthy Shaq and healthy Rondo along with the Big 3 was a brief moment of pure basketball heaven that we'll likely never see again.  But it had no healthy depth behind it and it couldn't (didn't) last.

I don't disagree with any of this. In fact, I agree with all of it. I stand by the notion, however, that the Boston Celtics since 2008, have played worse after Christmas, and its because the older players get tired, get bored, or get injured. The condensed schedule only emphasizes this, it doesn't help it.

I think all three played a part, but one advantage this year is that a hot start over the first 30 games will go a lot farther.  If the season ended at 66 games last year, we would have been 48-18 instead of 56-26, and 42-24 instead of 50-32 the year before that.

So much attention is paid to the condensed schedule that the fact that there are fewer games overall (and thus fewer chances to get injured or bored - 2/3s of our recent problems) is often overlooked.

[snively]

I think Bass might be the best backup big we have ever had. It's definitely a realistic possibility.

  By "ever" I'll assume you mean since we traded for KG and Ray, otherwise McHale, Walton and a host of others would disagree with this.

  That said, I'm pretty psyched about Bass as well. Good finisher, good outside shooter.

I like Bass too, but even if we're going off the post-KG era, I'd take a healthy Leon Powe over him.  More of a go-to scorer, better rebounder.

[Chris]

I think Bass might be the best backup big we have ever had. It's definitely a realistic possibility.

  By "ever" I'll assume you mean since we traded for KG and Ray, otherwise McHale, Walton and a host of others would disagree with this.

  That said, I'm pretty psyched about Bass as well. Good finisher, good outside shooter.

I like Bass too, but even if we're going off the post-KG era, I'd take a healthy Leon Powe over him.  More of a go-to scorer, better rebounder.

Yeah, I think Bass basically is pretty much what Powe was turning into before the knee injury...except Powe was the better rebounder.  But, unfortunately, I think the healthy Powe ship has sailed. 

He might carve out a spot in the league, but I don't see him regaining the explosiveness that made him special.  And without that, he will be a 12th man in this league.

[green7]

the team is good but there's 2 missing pieces

[Neurotic Guy]

Well, I personally won't begin to try to compare Wilcox to Shaq and I doubt we'll ever see as dominant a starting 5 as we had, however briefly, in the Fall of 2010 with Healthy Shaq(tm) + Big 4.

But Wilcox DOES possess some qualities that probably amplify his value to the Celtics over what his value has been elsewhere.  Although not a superstar and he has his weaknesses, his _strengths_ do include a very strong offensive game near the rim.  So he should, indeed provide a similar boost to our offensive efficiency to Shaq in that when he's near the post, defenses will not be able to sag their C off him to put two big men doubling on KG (something that would routinely happen when we had Perkins).

If defensive bigs try to sag off him, or switch a small onto him, then Rondo will have an easy lob target because that's a play Wilcox will definitely be able to finish.

My only concerns about Wilcox are on defense.   However, he's not a _bad_ defender - just not a great one.  And like others, I agree that KG has a magical way of boosting the defensive props of whomever is playing behind him.

Nicely stated!  TP