HOLLINGER picks celtics 3rd in East 43-23

[manl_lui]

I dont agree with him often, but he might be right on this one

[Snakehead]

The actual write up doesn't sound too high on us.  I'd be interested to see the other teams, he must not think much of the Knicks.

[vinnie]

I think this is about right, although I think more like 4th or 5th seed. I agree with his labeling of the Celts as a "B" contender, which to me means a medium to long-shot to win the title. And before I write this, let me repeat that I am NOT a Jeff Green fan. However, based on everything I am reading, it appears many of the experts and the fans here simply did not think Green would be that important to the team this year. I don't get it. Why were the Celtics willing to pay this guy $9 million if he can easily be replaced by Marquis Daniels?

[Snakehead]

I think this is about right, although I think more like 4th or 5th seed. I agree with his labeling of the Celts as a "B" contender, which to me means a medium to long-shot to win the title. And before I write this, let me repeat that I am NOT a Jeff Green fan. However, based on everything I am reading, it appears many of the experts and the fans here simply did not think Green would be that important to the team this year. I don't get it. Why were the Celtics willing to pay this guy $9 million if he can easily be replaced by Marquis Daniels?

Because the Celtics are run by a executives, a GM, and a coach?  Not the fans thank god or we would have traded away our whole team to be young and mediocre when we still have a shot (going off the boards here). And one "expert" thinks we will be lower seeded then the 76ers.

People hate on Jeff Green, and he was a little dissapointing, but his production per minute was basically the same as in OKC and that was pretty good.  He still has a lot of potential to improve.

$ 9 mill for a player of Green's caliber is also very reasonable.

[ktw7]

Re: Jeff Green - he wasn't going to start but I heard Sean Grande say he was going to be a 32-35 minute player. You can't say he wasn't going to play a big role, but it just means they'll play a bigger lineup more often probably. Who's to say that makes them worse? We have to see how Wilcox, Bass and JO play before judging I think. We know what we're getting from the Big 4.

[snively]

I disagree with Hollinger's skepticism regarding our ability to maintain a top 3 defense.  The defection of Thibs and Frank should have very little effect on the defensive effectiveness of the starting 5.

As long as KG and to a lesser extent Rondo are healthy our defense will be sterling.  If JO is actually healthy this season, it's probably improved.

Offensively, I agree we'll be as mediocre as we were last season.  The offensive upgrade from Baby to Bass/Wilcox is big, we won't have Shaq's brilliant quarter season this time around and I'd expect a small decline in minutes and/or efficiency from the big 3.

In my mind, our contention hopes rely on health above all (not only will we need to have our guys fully healthy, we might need our opposition to be a little beat up), and we'll need an extra boost via midseason pick-ups (Joel Przybilla, Kenyon Martin) and/or trade deadline moves for a bench scorer/playmaker (Leandro Barbosa, Mo Williams, Louis Williams, Grant Hill, Boris Diaw)

[twinbree]

I don't bother with predictions about the Celtics anymore. The hallmark of this team has become unpredictability. We could slug our way to the finals in fashion. We could have another painful exit. We could win it all as the 8th seed. The only prediction I'm comfortable making is that it'll be an emotional roller-coaster as usual and my plan is to fasten my seat belt so I don't fall off along the way.

[MBunge]

One way the condensed schedule could work in our favor is that Doc now has no choice but to rest the vets at certain times.  While Doc did adjust KG, Ray and Pierce's minues when they first arrived, he's never really made any changes in the years since that and he's especially fallen into the habit of leaving Ray out there too long.

Mike

[indeedproceed]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

In fact, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Celtics had the league's best record over the first 20 games or so.

Couple that with no real solution on a defensive center next to KG (barring medical miracles for JO), and I just don't see it.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

[mmmmm]

I think this is about right, although I think more like 4th or 5th seed. I agree with his labeling of the Celts as a "B" contender, which to me means a medium to long-shot to win the title. And before I write this, let me repeat that I am NOT a Jeff Green fan. However, based on everything I am reading, it appears many of the experts and the fans here simply did not think Green would be that important to the team this year. I don't get it. Why were the Celtics willing to pay this guy $9 million if he can easily be replaced by Marquis Daniels?

You asked this (very reasonable) question in one of the blog threads so I'll repeat my answer from there:

Green is 5 years younger and has (if healthy) more upside.  Also, like with many things, you pay a lot more to get that extra 10%. It is definitely not linear.

Ultimately, the price is dictated by things beyond your control. Marquis’ market leverage was almost zero. Coming off his injury he was not going to get more than vet minimum from any team. Fortunately, the C’s were a familiar, natural fit to go back to. He’s more valuable to us, even if we can’t pay him any more (because of the CBA) than anybody else would.

If Marquis has a solid year, posting ~20 minutes per game and getting through the season healthy, then he will probably be able to garner a much, much bigger pay check for next season.

Just for a sense of market perspective:  Marquis, between the ages of 25-28 made between $5.4M – $6.9M each year. So if you add in a bit for NBA salary inflation and another bit for Green being considered a better player, then the $9M we were going to pay Green at a similar age today doesn’t seem that different.

[BballTim]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

 This isn't true. KG's numbers after the all-star break are the same as before for the last 2 years, PP and Ray were both a little better one year and a little worse the other.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

  Also not really the case. We won 14 of the next 20 after Shaq went down (JO missed all those games as well) and (after Krstic and Green arrived) 5 straight without any of the three. The problem was when Rondo was playing poorly, not due to those three centers being out. To put a point on it, we were 16-2 when Semih played 15 or more minutes, 6-2 when he played more than 20 minutes. A reasonably healthy JO is enough to win with, and a rotation of JO/KG/Bass/Wilcox is better than we had most of the year, clearly better than anything we had without Shaq.

[LooseCannon]

I'm actually a bit excited that acquiring Keyon Dooling for basically nothing means that Doc may be more inclined to give Rondo some rest and we won't see games where Rajon is not playing as hard as we like to see because he is obviously pacing himself.  I'll even be happy to go back to the Marquis Daniels point guard experiment if that will help Rondo be more effective.

[snively]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

In fact, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Celtics had the league's best record over the first 20 games or so.

Couple that with no real solution on a defensive center next to KG (barring medical miracles for JO), and I just don't see it.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

Shaq was not a "defensive center" for us.  Sure no one tried posting him up, but his help defense mostly consisted of really hard fouls and stern glances at perimeter shooting big men.  I think Chris Wilcox can equal Shaq's contributions to the team (only better because we can expect him to play for more minutes and many more games). 

Perk/JO contributed little to our regular season success.  KG was our defense.

It was Rondo's collapse in productivity, Shaq's injury, and the awful performance of the bench (Baby imploded after a hot start, Nate never got going, Delonte was never healthy, Erden was a liability, Daniels got injured and the late season adds never got comfortable) that did us in, not Krstic's insertion into the starting line-up (if anything, his boomlet in offensive productivity helped avert a worse regular season record).

[Snakehead]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

In fact, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Celtics had the league's best record over the first 20 games or so.

Couple that with no real solution on a defensive center next to KG (barring medical miracles for JO), and I just don't see it.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

Shaq was not a "defensive center" for us.  Sure no one tried posting him up, but his help defense mostly consisted of really hard fouls and stern glances at perimeter shooting big men.  I think Chris Wilcox can equal Shaq's contributions to the team (only better because we can expect him to play for more minutes and many more games). 

Perk/JO contributed little to our regular season success.  KG was our defense.

Wow do you overrate Chris Wilcox (and I like that he is on our team).

First of all, Shaq is in no way a defensive center yet ultiamtely he has worth on defense by the size of his body alone.  He makes opponents think twice about going in the paint and if they do he has a big body to check them with.  Fouls also have their worth.  And so does defensive rebounding, which Shaq certainly did.

Second of all, Shaq in our lineup last year turned us from a middle of the pack offensive team to maybe the best in the league (right up there).  His ability to score in the post was huge in opening up the floor and he proved to be a great target for Rondo around the rim unlike anyone Rondo has ever played with.  Part of the reason Ainge made the Perk trade was that he felt he had enough at C and Shaq actually made us better overall than Perk did.

Will Chris Wilcox do that?  NO. No he won't and I don't know how you are even proposing that.  Sure he will probably be healthy where Shaq wasn't, and if that's your argument okay, but when both are on the floor for us Shaq is WAY more valuable.

[Kane3387]

I think the toll the condensced schedule will place on the Celtics' starters will prove to be too much, especially if (when) JO misses considerable time. I see us finishing around 4th or 5th and just praying we come around healthy at the end.

That said, 3rd seems to be the ceiling. We're not going to out-run the Bulls or Heat in the regular season without an injury to LBJ or Derrick Rose. We couldn't do it last year, and there is no way we can do it this year.

  Last year we were in the driver's seat for top seed until Rondo's March swoon. This year, with the busy schedule, I don't think they should kill themselves over seeding but I don't see a big dropoff from where we ended up last year.

I think you're not looking at the other major issues we had. Guys just got tired. Allen, Pierce, Garnett, they've consistently been worse the 2nd half than they have been the first half.

In fact, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Celtics had the league's best record over the first 20 games or so.

Couple that with no real solution on a defensive center next to KG (barring medical miracles for JO), and I just don't see it.

Look when we played our worst last year. Who wasn't playing? Perkins, O'Neal, or O'Neal. You think Wilcox or JJ is an upgrade over Krstic?

I think Bass might be the best backup big we have ever had. It's definitely a realistic possibility. Eventually he will be the fifth guy to finish games even if JO is healthy. Watch.