Contenders?

[PosImpos]

east: heat, bulls
west: thunder, lakers, mavs


if the nets somehow managed to sign Nene and trade Lopez / picks for Dwight (admittedly very unlikely), i might be tempted to include them as well, depending on what role players they signed for support.

the knicks could be a contending team if they signed the right supporting pieces, but i don't think they have the money to do so -- plus they wouldn't want to compromise their cap space for next summer.

i think memphis will have a bit of a let down this year after their surprising post-season run this summer.



Thunder v. Heat is my Finals matchup.

You really think the Heat and the Bulls are going to be so dominant that we won't even have a chance?  That's some real good negative thinking, there.

i think our team may be good enough to take either the Heat or the Bulls to 6 games, if our team is healthy.

 I'd say that's more of a chance than most would have given the Mavs last year. It's also much more of a chance than many here would have given us before 2009-2010, when we were "done as a contending team". When we were healthy last year we were easily dispatching the Heat during the season. When we were very unhealthy in the playoffs we were a missed layup from being tied 2-2 with the Heat.

you may be right about the mavs last year, but then dirk went and turned into the best player in the playoffs.  he was unstoppable.  who on the celtics is going to do that this year for 4 series?

many were writing off our team in 2009-2010 as well, it's true -- myself included, after the horrid regular season.  the team was certainly surprising in the playoffs, but let's remember that they fell short, and there haven't been any major improvements to the team since then.  in fact, the roster outlined at the start of this post is significantly less impressive than the 2010 team that made the finals.

last year, we did have a lot of success against the heat early in the regular season when they were still putting it together and we had a reasonably healthy shaq and / or perk.  later in the regular season when the roster more closely resembled the roster in the original post, the heat handed our butts to us.  in the playoffs, we hung with the heat fairly well prior to rondo's injury.  it is open to debate whether or not our team would have beaten the heat if rondo had not been injured, but i am of the opinion that though we very well may have taken them to 6 games and been very competitive, we would ultimately still have lost.

  People were writing off the Celts as contenders when they lost to the Magic without KG. They fell short of the title but clearly were contenders, just like they were last year. And we don't have to copy the Mavs to win the title. We nearly won the title in 2010 without a true go-to scorer.

eh, i'm not so sure your first assertion is true.  i think people were wondering if KG would ever be the same again, and wondered (quite reasonably) if the celtics could really contend if KG was seriously diminished by his injury moving forward.  it took KG a while to get back to the point where he looked anything like his former self.  i don't think many people thought of the celtics as contenders in 2009 without KG.

we came close to winning the title in 2010 without a true go-to scorer, but we ultimately fell short, and our team -- at least as it is likely to be constructed, barring a major trade -- has only declined since then (big 3 older, bench worse, big man rotation significantly weaker).

[slamtheking]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

[PosImpos]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

yes, our team could, perhaps, contend if those things happen.  call me pessimistic, but i just don't see half of those things happening, let alone all of them.

[Celtics4ever]

I think if we got lucky and signed Dalembert or good rebounding/defensive center we could beat the Knicks, Bulls, Magic or the Heat.   We'd have to be healthy though.  

JO and Green would be nice bench people.   I hope we get some more help for resting the starters though.  It would help if Green takes the next step but I am not convinced he will not be moved.   I think BBD will be gone as well via sign or trade or the like.  We were doing ok last year until they trashed Rondo's arm against the Heat.  It killed us.

I think Kobe is showing his age.   He is starting to rack up injuries couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

[ManUp]

I have to say I completely agree with slam. This team needs a lot of things to happen to have a real shot at a title this season. That list is almost exactly what I was going to write once I saw this thread. IMO, it's unreasonable to expect everything to fall into place when asking for so much.

[Celtics18]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

yes, our team could, perhaps, contend if those things happen.  call me pessimistic, but i just don't see half of those things happening, let alone all of them.

A lot of things have to fall into place for anyone to win a title.  There are no teams out there without some flaws.  That includes the Heat and the Bulls.  Personally, I do think you are being overly pessimistic.  I think there's a school of thought among some fans that says if we are not guaranteed a title at the beginning of the season, we refuse to believe in our team as a contender. 

Hey, I understand that everyone has their own way of being a fan, and I respect that, but I believe we have the tools to contend.  We have almost objectively the best top 4 players in all of basketball.  If we can find a healthy center, we are in the mix. That's not too much to expect, in my opinion.

[BballTim]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

  I think if you got 1 and 4 or 1 and 2 and 5 the Celts would probably be the favorites to win the title, not just contenders. A list as long as yours (different items but same magnitude) might turn a team like the Nets or the Hornets into contenders.

[chambers]

The Grizzlies are going to be a lethal force this season.
They have Rudy Gay back, and they will resign Gasol.

They were up 3-2 with a nice lead against the Thunder to make the Western Conference finals. I think with Rudy Gay in there they make the WCF easily last year.
They have an awesome defense and an inside outside presence that reminds me of the Spurs when they were killing everyone.

I don't see any teams touching them in the paint with Gasol and Randolph. Maybe if the Lakers get some serious upgrades at PF and PG then they will compete with them.
They are young too so I expect them to finish quite high in the regular season- like the Bulls last year.

[slamtheking]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

yes, our team could, perhaps, contend if those things happen.  call me pessimistic, but i just don't see half of those things happening, let alone all of them.

which was my point -- I don't think all those things will come to pass.  I'd like to see them happen if not just for a title this year but I'd feel pretty good about the team going into next year with a solid base of young talent in Rondo, Green, JJJ and Bradley.

[slamtheking]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

yes, our team could, perhaps, contend if those things happen.  call me pessimistic, but i just don't see half of those things happening, let alone all of them.

A lot of things have to fall into place for anyone to win a title.  There are no teams out there without some flaws.  That includes the Heat and the Bulls.  Personally, I do think you are being overly pessimistic.  I think there's a school of thought among some fans that says if we are not guaranteed a title at the beginning of the season, we refuse to believe in our team as a contender. 

Hey, I understand that everyone has their own way of being a fan, and I respect that, but I believe we have the tools to contend.  We have almost objectively the best top 4 players in all of basketball.  If we can find a healthy center, we are in the mix. That's not too much to expect, in my opinion.

My point was that they need a lot to fall into place -- more than the other teams I put as the top contenders.  In the case of those teams, I think things have to go WRONG moreso than things have to go RIGHT as in the C's case.

fans are fans.  a bit condenscending of saying there's different ways of being a fan.  I root for the C's regardless of the level of talent or the likelihood of a title.  It doesn't mean I won't look at the team and try to figure out where the weak points are and where their strengths are.

[PosImpos]

East: Heat, Bulls in that order.  Celts, Orlando and NY are next tier down.

West: Mavs, Lakers.  Spurs and OKC are next tier down.

I don't think the C's big 3 can play at a high level for 4 series.  They won't get by both the Heat and Bulls in the playoffs--maybe one of them but not both.  Orlando and NY don't have enough pieces to get there.

In the West, I'd love to dismiss the Lakers but I can't count out Kobe and Pau.  Tough duo to knock off.  Spurs are on decline and OKC isn't there just yet.

It pains me to think the C's aren't contenders but the only way they contend is:
1. Rondo gets a consistent jumper out to 18 feet and hit at least 75% FTs.
2. JJJ has got to turn into a real rotation player -- a 10/5 guy off the bench.  someone that makes BBD irrelevant and can keep Green at SF.
3. Bradley has to turn into the defensive stopper in the backcourt that will remind people of TA.
4. C's get 2 FA centers that don't get hurt, play solid D and rebound.
5. JO stays healthy all year and gives them 10/7 from the center spot.
6. Green develops into a real weapon off the bench where Doc can seriously rest PP and keep him fresh to put the team on his back in the playoffs.  Green has to get to a point where he can relieve the offensive pressure by providing 12-15 off the bench (and more when needed).  C's won't get by Miami unless they can put Green up against Bron for post offense and draw fouls.

just my 2 cents

yes, our team could, perhaps, contend if those things happen.  call me pessimistic, but i just don't see half of those things happening, let alone all of them.

A lot of things have to fall into place for anyone to win a title.  There are no teams out there without some flaws.  That includes the Heat and the Bulls.  Personally, I do think you are being overly pessimistic.  I think there's a school of thought among some fans that says if we are not guaranteed a title at the beginning of the season, we refuse to believe in our team as a contender.  

Hey, I understand that everyone has their own way of being a fan, and I respect that, but I believe we have the tools to contend.  We have almost objectively the best top 4 players in all of basketball.  If we can find a healthy center, we are in the mix. That's not too much to expect, in my opinion.

My point was that they need a lot to fall into place -- more than the other teams I put as the top contenders.  In the case of those teams, I think things have to go WRONG moreso than things have to go RIGHT as in the C's case.

Yeah, you articulated pretty much what I was thinking as well.  

I also think it's probably a bit much at this point to say we have the best top 4 in basketball.  Westbrook, Durant, Harden, Ibaka is probably better overall, as is LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Haslem.  


As for being a fan, I love the Celtics and I will always be happy to see them do well, even if it proves me totally wrong.  Being a fan of a particular team, though, in my opinion, doesn't require you to be optimistic beyond what your reason tells you is likely to happen.

[MF Doom]

In my opinion, if Rondo hasn't dramatically improved his shooting, or we don't add a reliable go-to scorer, then are chances at a Finals appearance are very slim.

[action781]

Just being objective here:  Miami

I think they are going to get a pretty decent center this offseason and they are just so uber-talented.  It came as a huge shock that they lost last season and they had only scraps around their big 3.  If they can get any of Chandler, Nene, or Dalembert this offseason, a decent point guard, and build some chemistry, they should be so hard to beat.

I only see a few potential road blocks to be taken seriously:
-Memphis really clicks with Rudy Gay back
-Chicago gets a healthy Caron Butler or another offensive/defensive SG
-Boston gets Chris Paul
-LA or another legit team gets Dwight Howard

I think if Lebron can shut down Rose at any time if he needs to in a playoff series and Chicago would need a ton more offense to help them beat Miami.
Boston w/o a trade would need everybody healthy, clicking, and Rondo to play out of his mind dominant (like we've seen him before).  It's possible but a long shot.
San Antonio cannot match Miami in any way.
LA is too old and slow to keep up.
Durant doesn't currently have enough help in OKC.
Mavs put together a wonderful run, but are going to get older, slower, and likely unable to retain all their free agents.  I think they were an awesome team, but their run in '11 had a bit of luck involved too.

Bring on the hate  

[Who]

Just being objective here:  Miami

I think they are going to get a pretty decent center this offseason and they are just so uber-talented.  It came as a huge shock that they lost last season and they had only scraps around their big 3.  If they can get any of Chandler, Nene, or Dalembert this offseason, a decent point guard, and build some chemistry, they should be so hard to beat.

I only see a few potential road blocks to be taken seriously:
-Memphis really clicks with Rudy Gay back
-Chicago gets a healthy Caron Butler or another offensive/defensive SG
-Boston gets Chris Paul
-LA or another legit team gets Dwight Howard

I think if Lebron can shut down Rose at any time if he needs to in a playoff series and Chicago would need a ton more offense to help them beat Miami.
Boston w/o a trade would need everybody healthy, clicking, and Rondo to play out of his mind dominant (like we've seen him before).  It's possible but a long shot.
San Antonio cannot match Miami in any way.
LA is too old and slow to keep up.
Durant doesn't currently have enough help in OKC.
Mavs put together a wonderful run, but are going to get older, slower, and likely unable to retain all their free agents.  I think they were an awesome team, but their run in '11 had a bit of luck involved too.

Bring on the hate 

I think Oklahoma can beat Miami. They gave them a very tough time in their two regular season matchups last season. One of those games was before the trade too ... they are an even tougher matchup now with Perk on board.

[jdpapa3]

Just being objective here:  Miami

I think they are going to get a pretty decent center this offseason and they are just so uber-talented.  It came as a huge shock that they lost last season and they had only scraps around their big 3.  If they can get any of Chandler, Nene, or Dalembert this offseason, a decent point guard, and build some chemistry, they should be so hard to beat.

I agree with you that Miami is scary because of their location and everyone wants to play there. Chandler and Nene are not going to Miami because of financial reasons and I don't even know if Dalembert is an upgrade to Joel Anthony. As for a pg that could bolster their situation, I'm just not seeing anyone out there on the market and in their price range that would be better than Bibby and Chalmers. A Battier or Caron addition would scare me the most because I think Lebron or Dwyane could run point or they could go small, and Mike Miller was abysmal last season.