Orlando could be a sleeper next summer

[Moranis]

If Orlando uses the amnesty on Arenas it wouldn't need to do much to create enough cap space to pair Howard with Williams or Paul, especially if there was a sign and trade using Nelson and/or Redick's expiring contracts. 

Howard is from Orlando and seemingly wants to stay, but only if it fields a contender.  Adding Williams or Paul would do that. 

Orlando is a warm weather state with no state income tax, which adds a lot of incentive for high income players stuck in a city throughout the winter. 

[Who]

Why would NO or NJ accept Jameer Nelson + JJ Redick in exchange for Paul or Deron?

They'd be better off with straight cap space than those two player's contracts on their books.

[Who]

Orlando could trade those guys, Nelson + Redick + Bass, for expiring contracts this season and create enough cap space that way. If they also amnesty Arenas and use the stretch provision on Hedo Turkoglu. That could work.

It would make an awful bad impression on Dwight Howard in the immediate future though. Very ugly and difficult season between now and free agency. It could easily turn him against the club if it isn't handled correctly. Dwight Howard would need to be fully on board with the plan before the execute it.

[Fafnir]

Where are you getting this from, care to outline: "wouldn't need to do much"?

I mean Howard is 19 million in space and Hedo is 12 million and they'll have Duhon and Q-Rich for another 6 million. Plus Jameer has a 7.8 million player option and Bass has a 4 million dollar player option.

[Roy H.]

I think that even if they amnesty Arenas and let Redick and Anderson walk, they'll still have around $50 million in committed salaries, and another $3 million worth of cap holds.  That's $53 million, on a cap projected to be somewhere around $58 to $60 million.

They might be able to save another approximately $3 million by using the "stretch" exception, but that only knocks them back down to $50 million.  They'd still be, at minimum, $5 million to $8 million short of being able to sign CP3 or Deron.

Trading Jameer Nelson for nothing, or including him in a S&T for one of the star point guards, is plausible, but I don't necessarily consider it likely.

[Fafnir]

Orlando could trade those guys, Nelson + Redick + Bass, for expiring contracts this season and create enough cap space that way. If they also amnesty Arenas and use the stretch provision on Hedo Turkoglu. That could work.

It would make an awful bad impression on Dwight Howard in the immediate future though. Very ugly and difficult season between now and free agency. It could easily turn him against the club if it isn't handled correctly. Dwight Howard would need to be fully on board with the plan before the execute it.

Yeah they'd have to tank this season entirely and trade all of their useful players.

[Moranis]

Why would NO or NJ accept Jameer Nelson + JJ Redick in exchange for Paul or Deron?

They'd be better off with straight cap space than those two player's contracts on their books.

If the player is leaving anyway, you get a decent player on a one year contract, a trade exception, and you make Orlando send you 1sts in return.  

The reality is Orlando if it cut Arenas, would really only need to move either Turk or some of their expiring contracts without taking back salary to have enough cap room to sign Paul or Williams straight up.  I don't think it can move Turk all that easily, but I could certainly see a team or teams with cap room next summer taking on Redick or Nelson and getting a 1st as well (like Miami was able to do with Beasley - bease was good enough miami didn't even have to send out a 1st).

[Fafnir]

I think that even if they amnesty Arenas and let Redick and Anderson walk, they'll still have around $50 million in committed salaries, and another $3 million worth of cap holds.  That's $53 million, on a cap projected to be somewhere around $58 to $60 million.

They might be able to save another approximately $3 million by using the "stretch" exception, but that only knocks them back down to $50 million.  They'd still be, at minimum, $5 million to $8 million short of being able to sign CP3 or Deron.

I think the roster cap holds of 500k make them even further away.

They'd have to trade Bass/Jameer/Duhon/Q-Rich/Turk for expiring deals and then use the stretch exception on one player they couldn't move.

[Who]

$20 million for Dwight
$4.76 million for Hedo (stretch provision)
$3.25 million for Duhon
$2.63 million for Q-Rich

Amnesty for Arenas. Daniel Orton waived. Redick, Bass and Jameer all traded for expiring deals. Ryan Anderson released.

Four players signed. Eight empty roster spots at 500k apiece. $4million.

A total of $34.64 million. That would leave enough cap space to offer a max contract to Chris Paul.

[snively]

Yeah, they'd have to tank this year.  An interesting possibility though. 

It'll be interesting to see how much of an effort they make to resign J-Rich, regardless.  Might be a good indicator of what they think their prospects for retain Howard are. 

[Moranis]

I think that even if they amnesty Arenas and let Redick and Anderson walk, they'll still have around $50 million in committed salaries, and another $3 million worth of cap holds.  That's $53 million, on a cap projected to be somewhere around $58 to $60 million.

They might be able to save another approximately $3 million by using the "stretch" exception, but that only knocks them back down to $50 million.  They'd still be, at minimum, $5 million to $8 million short of being able to sign CP3 or Deron.

Trading Jameer Nelson for nothing, or including him in a S&T for one of the star point guards, is plausible, but I don't necessarily consider it likely.

The 5 to 8 million is Jameer Nelson and I think they could move Jameer either to the Hornets or Nets or to some other team if it included a 1st as well.  

It is also quite possible that Howard and/or the PG would take a pay cut like the three in Miami did to make it work.  Not all those guys are going to pull a Carmelo and get as much money as possible.  If they really want to play together taking a slight salary reduction would certainly be one way to work it.

[snively]

$20 million for Dwight
$4.76 million for Hedo (stretch provision)
$3.25 million for Duhon
$2.63 million for Q-Rich

Amnesty for Arenas. Daniel Orton waived. Redick, Bass and Jameer all traded for expiring deals. Ryan Anderson released.

Four players signed. Eight empty roster spots at 500k apiece. $4million.

A total of $34.64 million. That would leave enough cap space to offer a max contract to Chris Paul.

What is this stretch provision you speak of?

[Who]

$20 million for Dwight
$4.76 million for Hedo (stretch provision)
$3.25 million for Duhon
$2.63 million for Q-Rich

Amnesty for Arenas. Daniel Orton waived. Redick, Bass and Jameer all traded for expiring deals. Ryan Anderson released.

Four players signed. Eight empty roster spots at 500k apiece. $4million.

A total of $34.64 million. That would leave enough cap space to offer a max contract to Chris Paul.

What is this stretch provision you speak of?

Is that still in the CBA or was it eliminated in the final deal?

Where you could waive a player and stretch out his payments over a number of years (double the duration of the contract plus one year).

[Moranis]

$20 million for Dwight
$4.76 million for Hedo (stretch provision)
$3.25 million for Duhon
$2.63 million for Q-Rich

Amnesty for Arenas. Daniel Orton waived. Redick, Bass and Jameer all traded for expiring deals. Ryan Anderson released.

Four players signed. Eight empty roster spots at 500k apiece. $4million.

A total of $34.64 million. That would leave enough cap space to offer a max contract to Chris Paul.

And if the cap is closer to 60 million, they could probably keep Anderson and/or Bass (he has a player option I believe) and still have the space.  They could also move Redick and Nelson after next year to teams with cap space and/or for players on team options and then just not pick up the option if it occurs before the draft (that way they wouldn't have to totally tank this season).

[Fafnir]

$20 million for Dwight
$4.76 million for Hedo (stretch provision)
$3.25 million for Duhon
$2.63 million for Q-Rich

Amnesty for Arenas. Daniel Orton waived. Redick, Bass and Jameer all traded for expiring deals. Ryan Anderson released.

Four players signed. Eight empty roster spots at 500k apiece. $4million.

A total of $34.64 million. That would leave enough cap space to offer a max contract to Chris Paul.

Well "very little" means completely gutting your entire team by the trade deadline by finding expiring contracts for virtually every useful player.