Orlando could be a sleeper next summer

[Roy H.]

I think that even if they amnesty Arenas and let Redick and Anderson walk, they'll still have around $50 million in committed salaries, and another $3 million worth of cap holds.  That's $53 million, on a cap projected to be somewhere around $58 to $60 million.

They might be able to save another approximately $3 million by using the "stretch" exception, but that only knocks them back down to $50 million.  They'd still be, at minimum, $5 million to $8 million short of being able to sign CP3 or Deron.

I think the roster cap holds of 500k make them even further away.

They'd have to trade Bass/Jameer/Duhon/Q-Rich/Turk for expiring deals and then use the stretch exception on one player they couldn't move.

They could probably keep Turk and Bass, if they dumped Jameer and declined to pick up Redick's contract. 

Path to cap room for Orlando:

1.  Amnesty Arenas
2.  Trade Jameer Nelson for no salary coming back
3.  Trade or "stretch" QRich and Duhon
4.  Don't offer Ryan Anderson a qualifying offer
5.  Cut Daniel Orton

I think that would leave their existing salary as:

Dwight Howard = $19,536,360
Hedo Turkuglu = $11,815,850
Brandon Bass = $4,000,000
Chris Duhon = $1,680,000
Q. Richardson = $1,087,200
7 empty roster spots = $3,500,000 (approx).

That equals approximately $41.6 million.  That's within striking distance of being able to offer Paul a max contract, depending upon what the cap is.  However, it's definitely not a fool-proof process.

[Who]

Larry Coon's article on how this CBA compares to the previous one

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/CBA-111128/how-new-nba-deal-compares-last-one

Stretch provision

• 2005 CBA: By mutual agreement, teams can alter the payment schedule to waived players. The remaining guaranteed salary is applied to the team's salary cap across the remaining years of the player's contract.

• 2011 CBA: The player's remaining salary and his cap hit may be stretched across twice the number of seasons remaining on the contract, plus one (for example, the salary and cap hit for a player waived with two seasons remaining may be stretched across five seasons). This is entirely at the team's discretion, but it applies only to contracts signed under the 2011 CBA.

• Who benefits? Teams with bad contracts. For example, if a team has an underperforming player with one season remaining at $12 million, the team can waive him and stretch his salary across three seasons at $4 million per season. This will help with cash flow and provide $8 million in cap relief for the current season.

Orlando would actually be better off waiting until next off-season to use the stretch provision on Hedo. Get that payment down from $4.76 million to $4 million.

[Fafnir]

$20 million for Dwight
$4.76 million for Hedo (stretch provision)
$3.25 million for Duhon
$2.63 million for Q-Rich

Amnesty for Arenas. Daniel Orton waived. Redick, Bass and Jameer all traded for expiring deals. Ryan Anderson released.

Four players signed. Eight empty roster spots at 500k apiece. $4million.

A total of $34.64 million. That would leave enough cap space to offer a max contract to Chris Paul.

What is this stretch provision you speak of?

Is that still in the CBA or was it eliminated in the final deal?

Where you could waive a player and stretch out his payments over a number of years (double the duration of the contract plus one year).

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ycn-10555131

Its still in the new CBA.

[Fafnir]

I think that even if they amnesty Arenas and let Redick and Anderson walk, they'll still have around $50 million in committed salaries, and another $3 million worth of cap holds.  That's $53 million, on a cap projected to be somewhere around $58 to $60 million.

They might be able to save another approximately $3 million by using the "stretch" exception, but that only knocks them back down to $50 million.  They'd still be, at minimum, $5 million to $8 million short of being able to sign CP3 or Deron.

I think the roster cap holds of 500k make them even further away.

They'd have to trade Bass/Jameer/Duhon/Q-Rich/Turk for expiring deals and then use the stretch exception on one player they couldn't move.

They could probably keep Turk and Bass, if they dumped Jameer and declined to pick up Redick's contract. 

Path to cap room for Orlando:

1.  Amnesty Arenas
2.  Trade Jameer Nelson for no salary coming back
3.  Trade or "stretch" QRich and Duhon
4.  Don't offer Ryan Anderson a qualifying offer
5.  Cut Daniel Orton

I think that would leave their existing salary as:

Dwight Howard = $19,536,360
Hedo Turkuglu = $11,815,850
Brandon Bass = $4,000,000
Chris Duhon = $1,680,000
Q. Richardson = $1,087,200
7 empty roster spots = $3,500,000 (approx).

That equals approximately $41.6 million.  That's within striking distance of being able to offer Paul a max contract, depending upon what the cap is.  However, it's definitely not a fool-proof process.

Do they have a first round pick they'd have to sell this year too?

Its doable, but it requires them to take on no additional salary this compressed offseason and to have some help unloading Jameer without getting salary back.

Very dangerous, and they better start selling this plan to Dwight Howard right now similar to how Reilly sold it to Wade.

[Who]

So, Orlando could keep Gilbert Arenas + Hedo Turkoglu until next summer. They will have to keep Duhon + Q-Rich because their is no trade market for those players unless they are willing to give up future picks which they'd need at a later date. Plus, Ryan Anderson is on the books for another 12 months.

PG - Arenas, Duhon
SG - unknown
SF - Hedo, unknown
PF - R.Anderson, unknown
C - Dwight Howard, unknown

Orlando could also use their mini-MLE to sign a player to a one year deal. They could probably get Earl Clark back to backup R.Anderson. Minimum contracts. Plus, whatever expiring contracts they would receive in exchange for Jameer, Redick and Bass.

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

[Who]

Trading ideas for moving Jameer, Redick and Bass

• Orlando could offer Nelson to Atlanta for K.Hinrich. Or to Indiana for J.Posey. Minnesota and M.Beasley (frees up D.Williams to play SF, gives Rubio a mentor). Straight salary dump to Sacramento (below cap).
• They could offer Redick to Chicago for K.Korver. Korver has another year on his deal but it is only partially guaranteed for $500k. That would work fine. We already know the Bulls would love to have Redick.
• They could try offloading Bass to Cleveland for Ryan Hollins. Maybe to GSW for Charlie Bell. LAC for R.Foye. MIN for A.Randolph. To New York for R.Turiaf (Bass much better fit for D'Antoni). To PHO for M.Pietrus (unsettled). Or SAC and J.Thompson.

It shouldn't be any problem to find a home for any of those players when the asking price is so low.

[Roy H.]

No need to trade Redick, as I believe his deal next year is non-guaranteed.

[Who]

No need to trade Redick, as I believe his deal next year is non-guaranteed.

Well spotted. I didn't notice that. Fully non-guaranteed if waived before 8th August 2012.

So they could keep Gilbert, Redick and Hedo all until next summer. Only need to move Nelson and Bass this season ... to create all that cap space in 2012.

[snively]

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

Is it really that much better than that terrible Miami team that collapsed into a 15-win season in 2008?

Orlando was already a mediocre offensive team last year.  Replacing three of their best offensive players - Nelson, Redick, Richardson - with Arenas, Moon and Carney would make them one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  With that kind of support I don't think Howard plays to his potential offensively or defensively (less motivation).  I'd also expect him to miss a lot of games.

[Fafnir]

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

Is it really that much better than that terrible Miami team that collapsed into a 15-win season in 2008?

Orlando was already a mediocre offensive team last year.  Replacing three of their best offensive players - Nelson, Redick, Richardson - with Arenas, Moon and Carney would make them one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  With that kind of support I don't think Howard plays to his potential offensively or defensively (less motivation).  I'd also expect him to miss a lot of games.

Wade missed 31 games due to injury and was a shell of himself that year.

If Howard stays healthy they'd still easily be a playoff team, just as that Heat team would have been a playoff team if Wade had been healthy.

[snively]

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

Is it really that much better than that terrible Miami team that collapsed into a 15-win season in 2008?

Orlando was already a mediocre offensive team last year.  Replacing three of their best offensive players - Nelson, Redick, Richardson - with Arenas, Moon and Carney would make them one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  With that kind of support I don't think Howard plays to his potential offensively or defensively (less motivation).  I'd also expect him to miss a lot of games.

Wade missed 31 games due to injury and was a shell of himself that year.

If Howard stays healthy they'd still easily be a playoff team, just as that Heat team would have been a playoff team if Wade had been healthy.

I'm pretty sure a healthy Wade wouldn't have made a 30 win difference.  He only missed 31 games, and while, he was definitely limited by injury, he wasn't that far off from his normal production. 

It was the precipitous decline in the quality of his supporting staff that disemboweled that team, and I'd expect a similar result in Orlando.

[PosImpos]

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

Is it really that much better than that terrible Miami team that collapsed into a 15-win season in 2008?

Orlando was already a mediocre offensive team last year.  Replacing three of their best offensive players - Nelson, Redick, Richardson - with Arenas, Moon and Carney would make them one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  With that kind of support I don't think Howard plays to his potential offensively or defensively (less motivation).  I'd also expect him to miss a lot of games.

Wade missed 31 games due to injury and was a shell of himself that year.

If Howard stays healthy they'd still easily be a playoff team, just as that Heat team would have been a playoff team if Wade had been healthy.

Yeah, i think a better analogy would be to the heat team that won 47 games prior to the summer of lebron. 

[Moranis]

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

Is it really that much better than that terrible Miami team that collapsed into a 15-win season in 2008?

Orlando was already a mediocre offensive team last year.  Replacing three of their best offensive players - Nelson, Redick, Richardson - with Arenas, Moon and Carney would make them one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  With that kind of support I don't think Howard plays to his potential offensively or defensively (less motivation).  I'd also expect him to miss a lot of games.

Wade missed 31 games due to injury and was a shell of himself that year.

If Howard stays healthy they'd still easily be a playoff team, just as that Heat team would have been a playoff team if Wade had been healthy.

I'm pretty sure a healthy Wade wouldn't have made a 30 win difference.  He only missed 31 games, and while, he was definitely limited by injury, he wasn't that far off from his normal production. 

It was the precipitous decline in the quality of his supporting staff that disemboweled that team, and I'd expect a similar result in Orlando.

But the 07-08 team was a mess the whole year.  Only one guy on that team played more then 67 games and that was Ricky Davis.  Shaq played 33 games, Haslem played 49 games, etc.  With even remotely reasonable health that team would have easily been a 40 win team was it was the year before and the year after. 

[snively]

PG - Arenas, Duhon (TJ Ford?)
SG - J.Moon, R.Carney, D.McGuire (R.Butler? M.Redd?)
SF - Hedo Turkoglu, K.Azubuike (M.Daniels?)
PF - R.Anderson, V.Radmanovic, E.Clark, J.Powell
C - Dwight Howard, J.Magloire, T.Battie

I think that team could win 45-48 games in the East. Obviously, mainly due to the great Dwight Howard.

Is it really that much better than that terrible Miami team that collapsed into a 15-win season in 2008?

Orlando was already a mediocre offensive team last year.  Replacing three of their best offensive players - Nelson, Redick, Richardson - with Arenas, Moon and Carney would make them one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  With that kind of support I don't think Howard plays to his potential offensively or defensively (less motivation).  I'd also expect him to miss a lot of games.

Wade missed 31 games due to injury and was a shell of himself that year.

If Howard stays healthy they'd still easily be a playoff team, just as that Heat team would have been a playoff team if Wade had been healthy.

Yeah, i think a better analogy would be to the heat team that won 47 games prior to the summer of lebron. 

That's a good point.

[Celtics4ever]

Even with the Master of Panic at the helm?