The boiling point is about to be reached and the possibility that an entire NBA season could be lost forever is drawing closer and closer. Greedy and egotistical owners don't want to give into greedy and egotistical players and vice versa. No one wants to be perceived as being on the losing side and so rather than splitting their differences down the middle, the NBA players and owners would possibly rather go the Armageddon route and blow up the 2011-12 NBA season.
But what will be the ramifications? Is everyone, and I do mean everyone, seeing what could happen? Lets take a look at some of the possibilities:
1. The NBA will lose fans, that's a certainty. The possibility is they could lose a lot of fans. This could translate into bad news in the smaller markets especially if the current economic environment continues. The New Yorks, Chicagos, LAs and Miamis of the NBA will still sell out every night, if for no other reason than corporate season ticket buyers. But the Charlottes, New Orleans', Memphis', and maybe even Atlantas of the NBA could see major problems in loss of gate receipts.
2. Local broadcasting rights outside of the top 7 or 8 markets are not going to suddenly be looking at increasing. If anything, as local broadcasting right's contracts end, some might be renewed at a significantly lesser amount than they were before. More lost revenue.
3. For every game the NBA isn't televising nationally, you can bet they are losing tens of millions on in the next national television deal. The NBA now makes less than a billion dollars a year on a pretty poor national television deal. If TNT, ABC and ESPN lose weekly game after game, the Christmas games, the All Star game, the playoffs and then the NBA Finals, you can rest assured that the next television deal will be at the very least $1 billion less than what it could have been and probably a lot more than that.
4. Trust between the agents and GMs and the players and the owners will be shot. Gone will be the cooperation between agents and GMs to ensure players end up in certain places or will take home town discounts. Gone will be the owners willingness to get the players every single modern perk available to them. Gone will be the players willingness to come back even when they aren't 100%. Gone will be the players desire to help the teams in and around the local community. The working environment these people have known for the last 11 years will dramatically change and the bad feelings and anger will stick around a while. Doing business in the NBA will be a lot harder and aggravating.
5. Certain press members and entities that have given the NBA a tipsy toe type of look at poor publicity will not be so forgiving. Expect a media backlash. The nature of the media with the NBA is such that they stay very quiet and loyal so they can be in the locker rooms and get the quotes and stories but rest assured, these people are not going to be happy with a lost season. Stories will come out shedding bad light on owners, GMs, players, and the NBA front office. Stuff that otherwise would never have come out before will become public consumption. I would expect the ESPN coverage, which has been extremely favorable and forgiving to take a turn for the very worst. Business partners don't take a billion dollars from you and then give you nothing in return without some hard feelings and consequences arising.
6. The game may have seen the last of Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Ray Allen, Jermaine O'Neal, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Kenyon Martin, Ben Wallace, Vince Carter, Marcus Camby, and Antonio McDyess.
7. This lockout could mean the end of David Stern. I don't see him or his dream of international expansion surviving a year off because of a labor dispute. Stern has meant so much to the game and yet he might ultimately remembered not for being possibly the greatest commissioner in professional sports history, but the man who couldn't get a deal done and ruined the league he grew into prominence in the first place. His legacy will be crushed and as much as I am not thrilled with the guy, I think it would be a crime.
8. It could solve absolutely nothing. Even after the players come back and whatever deal is put into place, if the GMs and owners still decide it is in their best interest to find loopholes in the CBA, pay the luxury tax to hire the best players, overspend for poor and mediocre talent, mismanage their teams and give every free agent they have or can sign off of another team a max contract, we could be in the same dilemma when the next CBA ends. Larger BRI cuts to the owners and harsher penalties for luxury tax teams isn't going to solve anything as long as massive revenue sharing and better front office management don't also occur.