Jeff Green Really Didn't have a bad half year with the C's

[Fan from VT]

Year   Team   GP   GS   MPG   FG%   3P%   FT%   RPG   APG   SPG   BPG   PPG
10–11   OKC   49   49   37.0   .437   .304   .818     5.6      1.8       .8        .4       15.2
10–11   BOS   26   2   23.4   .485    .296    .794     3.3      .7       .5          .6        9.8

( I tried to organize the chart from Wikipedia)

If you look at him pre-trade, he was averaging over 3 quarters worth of minutes, and putting up 15pts/5reb on 44% shooting.

Post-trade, we cut him to under 2 quarters and he put up almost 10pts/3 reb on 49% shooting. His 3 point percentage went down, but why are we having a 6'9 SF/PF take 3 pointers when we have Ray and Paul on our team? Those shouldn't really be his area.

Then in the playoffs he put up this:
2011   Boston   9   0   19.2   .434   .438   .722   2.7   .2   .6   .4   7.3

His numbers only dropped accordingly with his minutes. His shooting% dropped a few points but his 3PT% went up A LOT (.296 to .438)

Green didn't have a slump in Boston, we didn't even give him a chance. We need to see what this kid can do in a full (by that I mean lockout shortened) season when he can start on back to backs in place of Paul or KG.

I'm not sure your analysis makes sense when people were already talking about him under-performing before he was traded.

Exactly. We have 3.5 years of solid evidence that Green is a distinctly mediocre player who gets respectable looking "counting numbers" due to incredibly high minutes. He did not have a dropoff upon arriving in Boston, he just played fewer minutes of the exact same unchanging mediocre basketball he's played since he entered the league.

For those claiming that all the changes thrust upon him is what caused his statistical dropoff, again, he did not have a dropoff, just fewer minutes to accumulate stats. All that his extensive "changes" show is that he is average as a starter and as a bench player, average in an iso offense and average in a complex pass offense, average at SF and average at PF, average as a leader and average as a young follower. Basically, by arguing that the Celtics situation was the complete opposite of the OKC situation (in which he was quite distinctly average), you've just argued that he's kind of an average player in basically every possible situation.

[ScoobyDoo]

I'm interested to see the following from Green:

1. To see how he does with more time together with our team and the players.

2. How his overall defense improves having time with Doc and the team. I still argue he played some very aggressive, physical D on both Carmelo and James.

3. Very interested to see how he does offensively with a point guard like Rondo finding him on the break and on slashes in the half court.

In OKC, he had Westbrook, who to me is really more of a score first guard. I think Rondo can makes things easier for Green offensively - much as he does for others.

I loved Perk and would have preferred to keep him - especially if his knees weren't such an issue. But the fact remains that Perkins is already a nine year veteran big man coming off serious knee injuries. I'm not saying he won't produce. But his career numbers are around 8 points and 8 boards.

I still like the trade and my odds with Jeff Green

1. Definitely is a great athlete
2. Only four years in the league
3. Knock on wood - no major injures
4. Career averages of 15 and 6
5. A "much" better fit for Rondo and what will be an uptempo team as KG, Ray and then pierce move on or to more of support roles.

I think he can start and be a 3rd or 4th option on a championship team.

I also think he can easily average 18+ and 6+ boards a game on 35 minutes.

I'll take that as a starting role player on our future team.

he's not a franchise guy, just a piece.       

[nickagneta]

For being a 6'9" guy his rebound percentage of less than 9 is awful and for a guy taking 3 3pointers a game and hitting 78% from the line his TS% of 53% is bad.

This tells me he's a guy that loves playing on the perimeter and doesn't like doing the dirty work under the boards that this team desperately needs. His defense is pretty shoddy as well.

His stats in these areas have never changed and confirms what I see on the floor when I watch him play. he's a mediocre shooter that doesn't like going under the basket and a poor rebounder that is not a good defender.

Athletic? Sure but I take a great basketball player over a great athlete any day of the week.

[mmmmm]

The split in viewpoints expressed here on Green is due to a very distinct split in his performance that is apparent when you look at his positional ... 'splits'.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10BOS12.HTM#bypos

Basically, Green is a very, very good SF on both ends of the court.   Not as good as Paul - but right behind him.  And he's a decent offensive PF.  But he's simply TOO SMALL to play defense at PF.

The 'net PER' at these two positions (his own PER minus his opponent PER, prorated to 48 minutes) kinda crystalizes the distinction:

SF  +6.0
PF  -3.2

I am a big fan of Jeff Green but let me be very clear - he SUCKS when expected to play PF except in the situational case where both teams are playing small ball and our team has the speed advantage (which was not always the case when Rondo was all banged up at the end of the year).

Green's misfortune started on his draft day - when he was traded to the Sonics who had just picked Kevin Durant.  That doomed him to have to play far too many minutes in his career as an under-sized PF.

In the modern NBA, there are far, far too many PFs that are both tall (6'10" - 7' 0"), AND strong AND athletic.   Being just 6' 9" just doesn't cut it there anymore.   BBD at least had some weight to help him when being posted up by the taller slow guys.  But we all saw him getting torched by the tall fast guys who could shoot over him away from the post.  Green is fast, but too small to defend bigger post-up players.

ALL through his career, Green has always looked much better, more comfortable and more productive when playing at SF.  But he was never going to displace Durant's hold on that spot in OKC.   Durant has averaged 38 minutes per game their whole careers.  That has only left 10 minutes at MOST during his time in OKC available for Green to play at his natural position, SF.   At OKC, Green was playing ~80% of his minutes at PF!

Here in Boston, he's not going to immediately displace Paul Pierce at SF, either. 

But the difference here is that Doc shouldn't be playing Pierce 40 minutes a game anymore.

There is no reason that Doc couldn't get each of Green, Pierce & Allen right around 32 minutes per game by using a rotation that keeps two of them on the floor at all times - with none of them having to play undersized and out of position.

Well, there is a reason - if we don't have adequate bigs.  Lack of bigs is what leads Doc to play KG at the 5 or to put Green at the 4.

If Jajuan is the real deal, and we can somehow adequately shore up the C position with one or two more legitimate bigs, then hopefully Doc can avoid that.

[nickagneta]

The split in viewpoints expressed here on Green is due to a very distinct split in his performance that is apparent when you look at his positional ... 'splits'.

http://www.82games.com/1011/10BOS12.HTM#bypos

Basically, Green is a very, very good SF on both ends of the court.   Not as good as Paul - but right behind him.  And he's a decent offensive PF.  But he's simply TOO SMALL to play defense at PF.

The 'net PER' at these two positions (his own PER minus his opponent PER, prorated to 48 minutes) kinda crystalizes the distinction:

SF  +6.0
PF  -3.2

I am a big fan of Jeff Green but let me be very clear - he SUCKS when expected to play PF except in the situational case where both teams are playing small ball and our team has the speed advantage (which was not always the case when Rondo was all banged up at the end of the year).

Green's misfortune started on his draft day - when he was traded to the Sonics who had just picked Kevin Durant.  That doomed him to have to play far too many minutes in his career as an under-sized PF.

In the modern NBA, there are far, far too many PFs that are both tall (6'10" - 7' 0"), AND strong AND athletic.   Being just 6' 9" just doesn't cut it there anymore.   BBD at least had some weight to help him when being posted up by the taller slow guys.  But we all saw him getting torched by the tall fast guys who could shoot over him away from the post.  Green is fast, but too small to defend bigger post-up players.

ALL through his career, Green has always looked much better, more comfortable and more productive when playing at SF.  But he was never going to displace Durant's hold on that spot in OKC.   Durant has averaged 38 minutes per game their whole careers.  That has only left 10 minutes at MOST during his time in OKC available for Green to play at his natural position, SF.   At OKC, Green was playing ~80% of his minutes at PF!

Here in Boston, he's not going to immediately displace Paul Pierce at SF, either. 

But the difference here is that Doc shouldn't be playing Pierce 40 minutes a game anymore.

There is no reason that Doc couldn't get each of Green, Pierce & Allen right around 32 minutes per game by using a rotation that keeps two of them on the floor at all times - with none of them having to play undersized and out of position.

Well, there is a reason - if we don't have adequate bigs.  Lack of bigs is what leads Doc to play KG at the 5 or to put Green at the 4.

If Jajuan is the real deal, and we can somehow adequately shore up the C position with one or two more legitimate bigs, then hopefully Doc can avoid that.

You think Jeff Green is too small to play PF but you want JaJuan Johnson to play center?

Jeff Green is 6'9" 235lbs with a 7'1.25" wingspan

JaJuan Johnson is 6'10" 220lbs with a 7'2" wingspan

Something seems amiss here.

Like Johnson is actually a PF and Jeff Green is plenty big enough and strong enough to play PF but he just doesn't like to because he's not a physical guy. He likes SF because he can play on the perimeter.

[Interceptor]

You think Jeff Green is too small to play PF but you want JaJuan Johnson to play center?

Jeff Green is 6'9" 235lbs with a 7'1.25" wingspan

JaJuan Johnson is 6'10" 220lbs with a 7'2" wingspan

Something seems amiss here.

I think that he meant JJ playing at the 4, and we shore up C by adding one or two big guys alongside JO. This seems reasonable to me. Of course, finding those one or two big guys to play Center is not an easy lift for this team.

Also, TP to mmmmm, nice to see you hanging here in the forums, I like reading your frontpage comments.

[ScoobyDoo]

Well, I don't think Green will be a superstar or a Franchise player by any stretch of the imagination. But I do think he can be a very solid 3rd, 4th or 5th option as a starter on a championship team. I think the key thing would be who's around him at other positions.

If we have our big guns at PF, OG and Center - he's a very nice fit -again as a 3rd, 4th or 5th option.

I also think guys mentalities can change based on the environment they are in and the players who are around them. I don't think Jeff Green is a guy that's going to get in a fist fight under the boards - that's not who he is - that would be guys like Pierce, Perkins, KG, etc. But can he be an athletically aggressive SF on the wings of a fast break team? I think so.

Great post "mmmmmm" and I think you're on the money. Jeff Green, to me, is by no means a PF. He is 100% a small forward.

I've made an argument, which was roundly criticized, to possibly even start Green now and bring Pierce off the bench. Why? Not because Pierce shouldn't be starting but because the time is coming for us to move on with the next team - which will be uptempo -

1. Get Green starter minutes - get his confidence rolling
2. Get him working with Rondo NOW
3. Green's pace up and down the floor would probably open up Ray's game
4. Pierce can a take a little load off - help start extending his career now.
5. You can always start piling up on Pierce come playoff time if you want.
6. How'd you like to see Pierce coming off the pine if you're the oppositon?

I'm not saying you have start Green - you can do it minutes wise - but I just like the idea.

Also, I agree with you about Green being fully capable of being a very good small forward.

I do not think this was lost on Ainge or Doc when pulling the trigger with the Perkins trade. If you look 7-8 years out with Rondo now 25. What are the chances that Perkins, with his knee issues will still be right there with him.

Green and Rondo are matched perfectly with age and athleticism - Rondo needs to figure out how to open Green up on the break.

I think Ainge did the deal believing he has his long term SF in place. He'll be looking at franshise players at the center, PF and OG positions with Cap space and/or draft picks.

As KG and Ray and eventaully Pierce come off the books, Ainge will be looking to add:

1. A young max player or two - with his cap sapce
2. The Clipper pick and other draft picks, to...

JuJuan Johnson, Jeff Green, Gilbert Brown, DWest, Bradley & Rondo. i do think Gilbert Brown will make the team and I do think baby will be gone.

Ainge is definitely going to make a run for Howard as well. He has to -all GM's do if Howard becomes available.

Imagine:

Howard, Green, Rondo? Fill in the blanks...and we're off to the races.
          

 

[mmmmm]

** deleted for brevity **
If Jajuan is the real deal, and we can somehow adequately shore up the C position with one or two more legitimate bigs, then hopefully Doc can avoid that.

You think Jeff Green is too small to play PF but you want JaJuan Johnson to play center?

Jeff Green is 6'9" 235lbs with a 7'1.25" wingspan

JaJuan Johnson is 6'10" 220lbs with a 7'2" wingspan

Something seems amiss here.

Like Johnson is actually a PF and Jeff Green is plenty big enough and strong enough to play PF but he just doesn't like to because he's not a physical guy. He likes SF because he can play on the perimeter.

No - you misread me (or more likely, my words are not clear).  I was refering to needing better, healthy bigs in general and my reference to JaJuan was for the PF position.  I was trying to express hope that he was the real deal at PF (to back up KG) and that we somewhere find _other_ legitimate bodies to play C along with JO.

Despite being listed at only 220lb Jajuan plays bigger.  He has a much more vertical game and PF is his natural position.   His weight is not much different from many of the top PFs in the league when they were at his age (including KG).   He'll likely add at least 15-25 lb over the next few years, maybe more.

But for sure - I meant for him to play PF, not Center!!!!

My core point is that I don't want another year where we have undersized guys playing so [dang] many minutes at the 4 & 5.   People ask why Doc tolerated BBD out there on the floor if he was taking all those bad shots - well, it was in large part because he was one of the only healthy bodies who could play the 4/5.   That killed because not only was he taking bad shots, he was giving up 2-3 inches in length to opponents.

[Celtics4ever]

I read he did well in the bench press at the combine.  This is impressive despite him being a stick.  Was seventh in brench press just one rep less than Faried.


http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2011-NBA-Combine-Athletic-Testing-Results-3725/

I think he would get backed down at 220 though even if wiry at C.   It doesn't matter how big you play if someone with more mass pushing you around your going to give up position.   We all know position is vital to low post play.   The kid can also run like a deer and jump.  I think he will surprise some here.

[mmmmm]

I read he did well in the bench press at the combine.  This is impressive despite him being a stick.  Was seventh in brench press just one rep less than Faried.


http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2011-NBA-Combine-Athletic-Testing-Results-3725/

I think he would get backed down at 220 though even if wiry at C.   It doesn't matter how big you play if someone with more mass pushing you around your going to give up position.   We all know position is vital to low post play.   The kid can also run like a deer and jump.  I think he will surprise some here.

Yeah, I think long term he definitely needs to put on a little more weight.  But I'm not too worried.  Go look up the playing weights of KG (217), Amare (233), Bosh(225), and other top PFs when they entered the league.   A lot of these guys started out a lot skinnier than they are now.

In the mean time, with that 33.5 standing vertical jump, he may get pushed off the block yet STILL block the shot a few times!   

[mmmmm]

You think Jeff Green is too small to play PF but you want JaJuan Johnson to play center?

Jeff Green is 6'9" 235lbs with a 7'1.25" wingspan

JaJuan Johnson is 6'10" 220lbs with a 7'2" wingspan

Something seems amiss here.

Like Johnson is actually a PF and Jeff Green is plenty big enough and strong enough to play PF but he just doesn't like to because he's not a physical guy. He likes SF because he can play on the perimeter.

Also, you are using their 'listed' numbers.  If you look at their actual combine measurements you see that Johnson's extra inch+ in barefoot height and extra inch in wingspan end up with a very significant 4.5 inch difference in standing vertical reach.

This probably just goes to the way their skeletons (shoulder joints) work, but the same height and wingspan together don't always result in the same 'vertical' nature for a player.

JG is NOT truly 'plenty big enough' for PFs.  An 8' 7" standing vertical reach is just not tall enough to cut it.  Consider that Amare, for example, even though only 3/4 inch taller w/o shoes than JG, has a standing vertical reach of 5.5 inches higher!

Unlike weight (which goes up) and vertical jump (which declines), that standing vertical number doesn't really change.

JG is better at SF than at PF not because he's "not a physical guy", but because he simply matches up better.  You need to realize that offensively, his numbers at PF have been just fine.  He scores _against_ PFs almost as well as he does against SFs.   This is because he generally has a speed advantage over most PFs.

It is on defense though, that he would get exposed either by not being big & strong enough to avoid being pushed around or not being tall enough to avoid getting shot over and this is due to the fact that he is simply not heavy enough to make up for not being long enough or not long enough to make up for not being heavy enough.  He's just not big enough.

Saying, "He likes SF because he can play on the perimeter." is sorta off point.  On defense, which is where the issue is, you play where you need to be, not where you like.

[throwedoff]

I think we should give him a full year here and from what I've seen and heard he's interested in coming back but he should be a starter IMO. During the brief series wit the heat I noticed when Pierce would get in foul trouble Green was MUCH more comfortable with the starters some of you guys call him mediocre?? stop it man 15 and 6 isn't mediocre lol he's gonna prove a lot of you guys wrong

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I think we should give him a full year here and from what I've seen and heard he's interested in coming back but he should be a starter IMO. During the brief series wit the heat I noticed when Pierce would get in foul trouble Green was MUCH more comfortable with the starters some of you guys call him mediocre?? stop it man 15 and 6 isn't mediocre lol he's gonna prove a lot of you guys wrong

Exactly! 15 and 6 (okay the rb aint that great)... getting 15pts when you got two other guys getting most of the shots and pts, sounds good to me!

[Celtics4ever]

In the mean time, with that 33.5 standing vertical jump, he may get pushed off the block yet STILL block the shot a few times!

If you get pushed too low it can negate your ability to jump.  Anyone who has ever hit their noggin or shoulder on the backboard or head on the rim will tell you that.  I would bet he is aware of the possibility with his leaping and height. The closer you get to the rim the greater chance of a goal tending call and a foul. Also, the no charge circle favors the offense when your close.  

I, too, think he will be ok.   Blocking shots has a lot to do with timing too.   From what I have seen he has some of that.  I am optimistic about him.  I recall Chief defending Malone well despite giving up 20 lbs.

Half empty or half full a preseason would have helped him.  Who knows what he will look like in a shortened season.

[ScoobyDoo]

Regarding JuJuan Johnson:
1. I've heard he is wiry tough - averaged 20-10 in his league. Commentators say anyone who can consistently do that in Purdue's league is not afraid of mixing it up and is probably stronger than he appears.

2. The comment that he can run like a deer. This is true, Green and Johnson on the break with Rondo should net some good results.

3. He'll never be Karl Malone or Charles Oakley. But I'm hoping he can be like Horace Grant type power forward, in time...

4. He doesn't look like his build can easily put on a lot of muscle - but I've heard he's got a great work ethic. I'm hoping he can add 20-25 lbs of strength to his frame over the next 2-3 years - come in at 6'10" & 240ish - combine that with his athleticism and become a very solid, young, energetic big for us.

   
Regarding Jeff Green:
1. I don't think he's a star -but I think he's better than mediocre

2. I really like the idea of his starting as well. If he doesn't start - I'd like to see him getting a minimum of 30 minutes a night and a decent part of it with Rondo on the floor. Maybe Pierce plays some more OG this year - keep Ray's minutes down a bit more.

I think Green is going to end up fitting in very nicely with the uptempo team Ainge is currently building for the future.

Look at his picks and trades:

Avery Bradley: Major athleticism
DWest: Good athleticism - if made of glass...
Jeff Green: Very good Athleticism
JuJuan Johnson: Very athletic for a big man
Rondo: "Jets"

* You will continue to see the pattern of athletic players - regardless of position - be dominant in Ainge's picks and trades. The re-builidng is already upon us.

You throw the right young Off Guard, Center and PF into that mix of athletes, along with a couple mid career Veterans?

Off to the races...we're competing for rings for a good, long stretch with Rondo at the helm.

I love our current team but cannot wait for Ainge's 'next" team.