The Amnesty Rule

[Kane3387]

I was thinking about the ramifications of the Amnesty Rule and how it could effect the landscape of the NBA is there is a short season. There will be a lot of players waived who, while they presently aren't living up to their contracts, can be major contributors on championship teams.

Below is a list of the most likely players to be waived from each team using the Amnesty Rule.

Atlanta - Joe Johnson/Marvin Williams
Boston - N/A (Pierce isn't being waived)
Charlotte - Tyrus Thomas/Corey Maggette
Chicago - N/A (Luol Deng is the most likely guy)
Cleveland - Baron Davis
Dallas - Brendan Haywood
Denver - Al Harrington/Birdman
Detroit - Rip Hamilton/Ben Gordon
Golden State - Andris Biendrins
Houston - Hasheem Thabeet
Indiana - James Posey
Clippers - Mo Williams
Lakers - Ron Artest/Luke Walton
Memphis - N/A (Unless they really want to get rid of Mayo)
Miami - Mike Miller
Milwaukee - Drew Gooden
Minnesota - Darko Milicic/Luke Ridnhour
New Jersey - Travis Outlaw
New Orleans - Emeka Okafor/Trevor Ariza/Jarrett Jack
New York - N/A or maybe Ronny Turiaf
Oklahoma City - Nate Robinson
Orlando - Gilbert Arenas
Philadelphia - Elton Brand/Andres Nocioni
Phoenix - Josh Childress
Portland - Brandon Roy
Sacramento - John Salmons/Francisco Garcia
San Antonio - Richard Jefferson
Toronto - Amir Johnson/Jose Calderon
Utah - Al Jefferson/Mehmet Okur/Devin Harris
Washington - Rashard Lewis/Andray Blatche

As you can see above there are some big names who still have some game that will likely be on the market this season for cheap. This assumes there is an Amnesty Rule and a Season and signs are looking at both of those being a reality.

A lot of these guys will consider Boston, Lakers, Dallas, Chicago, Miami, etc. as places to go because they will have a chance to win and the money will be the same as it would be for a lot of teams.

This upcoming season could be very top heavy. It's likely our last chance to win with this core group so let's hope DA, Doc, and Wyc can get some of these guys to play in Boston next year.

The names above are who I see the teams using their Amnesty Rule on. Out of the names above which few players would you like to see on our team?

[Who]

This would be my list of potential amnesty casualities

Atlanta = nobody
Boston = nobody
Charlotte = DeSagana Diop
Chicago = nobody
Cleveland = Baron Davis
Dallas = Brendan Haywood (but I doubt it)
Denver = Al Harrington or Chris Andersen (injury concerns?)
Detroit = Charlie V or Ben Gordon
Golden State = Andris Biedrins
Houston = nobody
Indiana = James Posey
LA Clippers = nobody
LA Lakers = Luke Walton
Memphis = nobody
Miami = nobody
Milwaukee = Drew Gooden or Beno Udrih
Minnesota = nobody
New Jersey = Travis Outlaw
New Orleans = nobody (should waive Okafor)
New York = nobody
Oklahoma = nobody
Orlando = Gilbert Arenas
Philadelphia = Andres Nocioni
Phoenix = Josh Childress
Portland = Brandon Roy
Sacramento = nobody (should waive Salmons)
San Antonio = nobody (should waive RJ)
Toronto = nobody
Utah = nobody
Washington = Rashard Lewis

---------------------------------------------

So out of 30 teams, I think 15 will give strong consideration to using the amnesty on the players named here.

That said, I think Denver (Harrington/Andersen) and Phoenix (Childress) are possibly too cheap to pay a player that much money for them not to play for their club. That whittles it down to 13. Maybe Milwaukee (Gooden/Udrih) and Indiana (Posey) too. 11.

Dallas' decision on Haywood will come down to how painful this new tiered luxury tax will be ... after they have compared that to their projected salaries after (hopefully) resigning their free agents (C.Butler, T.Chandler, JJ Barea, D.Stevenson).

So 10-11 teams ... let's have a look at those players

Starting quality talents = Brendan Haywood, Baron Davis, Rashard Lewis
Rotation players = Ben Gordon (or Charlie V), Travis Outlaw
Third stringers = DeSagana Diop, Andris Biedrins, Gilbert Arenas, Luke Walton, Andres Nocioni

Not sure where to put Brandon Roy. He could be in any of the three categories. He could even be a star player. Who knows.

[mkogav]

I read somewhere that the Clippers would amnesty Chris Kaman (saving 12 million for 1 year) and resign Jordan.

I also read that if this happens, Danny would be interested.

Mk

[mkogav]

I read somewhere that the Clippers would amnesty Chris Kaman (saving 12 million for 1 year) and resign Jordan.

I also read that if this happens, Danny would be interested (edit) in Kaman.

Mk

[StartOrien]

Can't see that happening. I'm sure the Clippers could find a suitor for Kaman.

They're close to building a contender, even the frugal Clippers aren't going to let talent walk.

[Who]

The names above are who I see the teams using their Amnesty Rule on. Out of the names above which few players would you like to see on our team?

Out of the names I selected in my previous post, hmm ...

#1 - Ben Gordon would be the main prize but I would expect him to receive greater offers from elsewhere. Plus, Danny may choose not to pursue BG over 2012 cap space anyway. So an unlikely get.

#2 - Brendan Haywood. Again, probably looking for too large of a salary commitment for Danny's taste. More likely to end up in Miami all things being equal. Although that may free up Dalembert, but again, Danny may forgo that type of financial commitment.

#3 - I think Outlaw and Lewis would be looking for long term deals too. Danny would probably lean towards Jeff Green over either player since the club hold's Green's bird rights and could keep their MLE for other needs.

#4 - DeSagana Diop. If he's healthy, he'd make an adequate stop gap center for the team. Probably only take a minimum contract at this point. He could fill a number of roles - part time starter (16-22mpg), main backup center, third string center (behind JO + FA signing [Przybilla or Kwame]).

So to answer the question, I think DeSagana Diop would be the most realistic get.

I decided to ignore Brandon Roy because I have no idea what shape his game in due to his ongoing health issues. Also, he'd likely require a full MLE type deal. Big commitment for such an unknown with 2012 cap space in the firing line.

[Who]

I read somewhere that the Clippers would amnesty Chris Kaman (saving 12 million for 1 year) and resign Jordan.

I also read that if this happens, Danny would be interested.

Mk

They wouldn't be saving $12 million. They still have to pay the man.

The only potential financial savings are for teams who in the luxury tax zone because their tax bill is reduced.

[Who]

I could see the Warrior's new owners coming in and being very aggressive and ambitious by waiving Andris Biedrins in order to get far enough below the cap to make a major offer to a big time free agent. Most likely a center, Marc Gasol or Tyson Chandler. I think that would be a great way to improve their team and galvanize their fan base. Costly though.

That would be the other main benefit to the amnesty clause (free up cap space + luxury tax savings).

[StartOrien]

Anyone got a link breaking down rumored amnestry rule?

From my understanding it means a players salary wouldn't be held against a team's salary cap, but they'd still have to pay the contract.

[Roy H.]

Anyone got a link breaking down rumored amnestry rule?

From my understanding it means a players salary wouldn't be held against a team's salary cap, but they'd still have to pay the contract.

I think that's about it, with some argument over how many years the remaining salary would be paid over.  The players want it all up front, which just doesn't make much sense from the owners' point of view.  I would say the players should simply be paid on the schedule left on their contracts.

[Kane3387]

Anyone got a link breaking down rumored amnestry rule?

From my understanding it means a players salary wouldn't be held against a team's salary cap, but they'd still have to pay the contract.

http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/10/23/nba-lockout-remaining-issues/

No word on whether a team could resign the player they cut with the Amnesty Rule. I doubt they allow it, but you never know...

[mkogav]

I read somewhere that the Clippers would amnesty Chris Kaman (saving 12 million for 1 year) and resign Jordan.

I also read that if this happens, Danny would be interested.

Mk

They wouldn't be saving $12 million. They still have to pay the man.

The only potential financial savings are for teams who in the luxury tax zone because their tax bill is reduced.

The "savings" that I mentioned were against the cap, not raw dollars.

The Clips are nowhere near the tax threshhold. However, they could be close salary cap line. They only have $45 million committed to next year's roster, but if the cap line drop with the new deal, they won't be able to sign any free agents except for their own and <= mid-level.

Shaving off Kaman's 12$ million would knock the total salaries vs the cap to just under $33 million.

They could easily resign Jordan and another above the mid-level free agent.

If they keep Kaman then they will have ~18-20 million of the cap tied up with two starting centers and no room to bring in anyone else above the mid-level.

Mk

[nickagneta]

I read somewhere that the Clippers would amnesty Chris Kaman (saving 12 million for 1 year) and resign Jordan.

I also read that if this happens, Danny would be interested.

Mk

They wouldn't be saving $12 million. They still have to pay the man.

The only potential financial savings are for teams who in the luxury tax zone because their tax bill is reduced.

The "savings" that I mentioned were against the cap, not raw dollars.

The Clips are nowhere near the tax threshhold. However, they could be close salary cap line. They only have $45 million committed to next year's roster, but if the cap line drop with the new deal, they won't be able to sign any free agents except for their own and <= mid-level.

Shaving off Kaman's 12$ million would knock the total salaries vs the cap to just under $33 million.

They could easily resign Jordan and another above the mid-level free agent.

If they keep Kaman then they will have ~18-20 million of the cap tied up with two starting centers and no room to bring in anyone else above the mid-level.

Mk

Just to be clear, if under the cap at all, you only get to spend up to the cap that off season, you don't get the MLE that year. The only way to spend over the cap is to spend on your own players and free agents.

[xmuscularghandix]

I don't know what the new cap is supposed to be, so here are all the teams that will be over 50 Mil next season (and who they would most likely drop using the Amnesty rule):

Lakers 91 Mil: Luke Walton at 5.6 but probably not cause it doesn't actually get them anywhere.

Magic 74 Mil: Gilbert Arenas, no brainer.

Spurs 73 Mil: No one. Unless of course you can resign guys after you cut them... then Duncan. But theres no way NBA would let that loophole happen

Celtics 72 Mil: No one.

Blazers 66 Mil: Maybe Roy, they'll be paying him either way... but it does get cloudy. How would options work under this rule?

Hawks 65 Mil: Nobody, a team with all those fairweather fans can't afford to be paying Joe Johnson 20 mil a year to play somewhere else.

Heat 65 Mil: Nobody.

Mavericks 63 Mil: Nobody.

Bulls 61 Mil: No one, if anyone maybe Boozer. But only if they can sign a big name replacement for him.

Knicks 60 Mil: Chauncey Billups, with his 14 off the book they could go after a FA, plus they'd only be paying it for one season.

Jazz 55 Mil: Al Jefferson, no place for him up there with Favors and Millsap. Big Al isn't a center. Imagine if he got let loose and the Celtics signed him for 2 years at the minimum?

Cavs 55 Mil: Baron Davis, Antawn Jamison... I'd let Jamison go because i don't like him. Boon Dizzle could be a nice veteran teacher for young Kyrie.

76ers 54 Mil: Elton Brand.

Thunder 53 Mil: No one. They're pretty set financially for now, but they'll regret that Perkins extension.

Bucks 51 Mil: Drew Gooden, that's one of the worst contracts ever.

[Kane3387]

I see almost every team using the Amnesty Rule. Using the rule on a guy who is not a long term guy for your franchise makes too much sense. It frees up cap space immediately to not only sign players but also free up flexibility for trade.

A guy like Al Harrington is gone. Brandon Roy is gone. Portland wants to win and will value that cap flexibility. The Spurs are near the luxury tax deadline and just drafted Kwahi Leonard, so I think RJ is a goner.

I think Haywood is gone. They want to pay Chandler and Butler. Haywood barely played and they can sign a guy like Diop if he is let go for a lot less money to play the same role.

There wil likely be a lot more guys cut then people are thinking on here. Teams would rather pay someone to leave then have a bad contract negatively effect their cap for 3-5 years.