Rondo article on Basketball Prospectus

[mc34]

you can't read the whole thing without a subscription. Can anyone post it here?

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1869

[BASS_THUMPER]

i read enuff

reading that enforced what i thought of him all along....

[FatjohnReturns]

Where is BballTim when we need someone to dispute the validity of this article??

"When looking at the numbers and watching the tape, you notice that Rondo's inability to make a jumper, or even shoot one at times, really hurts him in pick-and-roll situations. Opposing teams started picking up on Rondo's unwillingness to shoot and they started going under ball screens at an extreme rate. In 2009-10, defenses went under Rondo's ball screens 38 percent of the time. That's a pretty high number and that increased during the course of last season as defenses went under screens 50 percent of the time this past season. With defenders going under screens, Rondo was forced into turnovers:"

[guava_wrench]

Where is BballTim when we need someone to dispute the validity of this article??

"When looking at the numbers and watching the tape, you notice that Rondo's inability to make a jumper, or even shoot one at times, really hurts him in pick-and-roll situations. Opposing teams started picking up on Rondo's unwillingness to shoot and they started going under ball screens at an extreme rate. In 2009-10, defenses went under Rondo's ball screens 38 percent of the time. That's a pretty high number and that increased during the course of last season as defenses went under screens 50 percent of the time this past season. With defenders going under screens, Rondo was forced into turnovers:"

I think anyone who has played defense at any level can agree that defense is a lot easier when you can go under screens. Big man doesn't even need to hedge, risking leaving the lane open for his man (though a really good pick is still a really good pick).

[Inside-Out]

Where is BballTim when we need someone to dispute the validity of this article??

"When looking at the numbers and watching the tape, you notice that Rondo's inability to make a jumper, or even shoot one at times, really hurts him in pick-and-roll situations. Opposing teams started picking up on Rondo's unwillingness to shoot and they started going under ball screens at an extreme rate. In 2009-10, defenses went under Rondo's ball screens 38 percent of the time. That's a pretty high number and that increased during the course of last season as defenses went under screens 50 percent of the time this past season. With defenders going under screens, Rondo was forced into turnovers:"

Didn't/can't read the article, but this looks about right to me.  Perhaps 50% is on the low side?  Maybe there is help/blitz quite a bit?  But there sure are a lot of wide-open 16ft jumpers near the foul line/elbows that he turns up that would be eaten up in my rec league.

I really like Rondo a lot, but this persistent weakness is something that the team has to plan around, and as some discussions here have pointed out, it makes building a roster to complement him important (i.e. need shooters).

In my view, it's what keeps Rondo from being untouchable in trade.  I don't want to have to build around such a flawed player.

[action781]

I agree with guava and Inside-Out.  He needs to at least take the shot.  I'm play point guard and my ability to get into the lane is my best asset.  I'm not an excellent 3 point shooter, but I ALWAYS attempt at least 1 3-pointer per game.  If I routinely turn them down, defenders play off of me which doesn't allow me to get into the lane as effectively.  If I show a willingness to shoot it (and hit it occassionally), defenders play me closer opening up a lot more options and it allows me to incorporate an upfake too.

I'm not saying I want Rondo to shoot more 3's, but he needs to have that same mentality and employ it to open 16 foot jumpers.  #1 priority in practice needs to be to work on hitting them.  But even until then, he needs to at least be shooting them to make defenses play him honestly and open up more offensive possibilities for him.

[Inside-Out]

I agree with guava and Inside-Out.  He needs to at least take the shot.  I'm play point guard and my ability to get into the lane is my best asset.  I'm not an excellent 3 point shooter, but I ALWAYS attempt at least 1 3-pointer per game.  If I routinely turn them down, defenders play off of me which doesn't allow me to get into the lane as effectively.  If I show a willingness to shoot it (and hit it occassionally), defenders play me closer opening up a lot more options and it allows me to incorporate an upfake too.

I'm not saying I want Rondo to shoot more 3's, but he needs to have that same mentality and employ it to open 16 foot jumpers.  #1 priority in practice needs to be to work on hitting them.  But even until then, he needs to at least be shooting them to make defenses play him honestly and open up more offensive possibilities for him.

Exactly.  Even if he shoots and lays it up softly off the rim, our bigs can anticipate the play and get rebounding position before he shoots, and score on the putback.  He doesn't even need to make them to be effective!

[BballTim]

I agree with guava and Inside-Out.  He needs to at least take the shot.  I'm play point guard and my ability to get into the lane is my best asset.  I'm not an excellent 3 point shooter, but I ALWAYS attempt at least 1 3-pointer per game.  If I routinely turn them down, defenders play off of me which doesn't allow me to get into the lane as effectively.  If I show a willingness to shoot it (and hit it occassionally), defenders play me closer opening up a lot more options and it allows me to incorporate an upfake too.

I'm not saying I want Rondo to shoot more 3's, but he needs to have that same mentality and employ it to open 16 foot jumpers.  #1 priority in practice needs to be to work on hitting them.  But even until then, he needs to at least be shooting them to make defenses play him honestly and open up more offensive possibilities for him.

  Rondo takes about the average amount of outside jumpers for a point guard. He took 3-4 a game last year.

[BballTim]

Where is BballTim when we need someone to dispute the validity of this article??

  What we really need is that Fatjohn guy, the one who has a general disdain for stats unless they make Rondo look bad.

"When looking at the numbers and watching the tape, you notice that Rondo's inability to make a jumper, or even shoot one at times, really hurts him in pick-and-roll situations. Opposing teams started picking up on Rondo's unwillingness to shoot and they started going under ball screens at an extreme rate. In 2009-10, defenses went under Rondo's ball screens 38 percent of the time. That's a pretty high number and that increased during the course of last season as defenses went under screens 50 percent of the time this past season. With defenders going under screens, Rondo was forced into turnovers:"

  Yes, there he is.

  

  So this guy's premise is that Rondo turns the ball over a lot in pick and roll situations because defenders go under screens because he's unwilling or unable to shoot when they do. I checked out 6-7 other point guards, the better ones in turnover rate for pick and roll (like Chris Paul) are around 14%. so 21%  isn't that great.

  Three of the other 6 guards I checked were between 19% and 22% (close to Rondo's rate). They were Deron Williams, Stephen Curry and Steve Nash. Any thoughts on those? Do defenders go under picks on them because they can't/won't shoot? Or maybe there's more to what's happening than his explanation?

  Also, the guy starts out by saying that Rondo's turnover rate was up which shows he's struggling with turnovers. Rondo's turnover rate went up because he's shooting less and passing more, it's simple math. His assist/bad pass ratio actually increased last year.