chances we get the clippers pick next year?

[cman88]

What do you guyys think the chance is that the clippers are improved enough next year to not land in the top 10 and the pick falls to us?

Their roster's not bad, and if Blake griffin and Gordon can improve more, its possible they wont be in the top 10worst teams...which would be good for us, getting a pick in 11-15 in a loaded draft.

[pearljammer10]

Its the clippers... everyone always says in the offseason, "the clippers have great talent maybe they'll be the surprise team"...but then they play like the clippers.


I for one hope they turn things around because

a) they've been greatly doomed for too many years

and

b) i actually really like to watch the talent they have on the team. exciting, seem to be fairly classy guys.


but then again, its the clippers.

[Celtics18]

I think that the chances are pretty good that the Clippers don't end up with a top ten pick next year.  I just hope they don't improve too much, and their number one pick ends up being in the twenties.

[nickagneta]

Best hope the lockout doesn't last the whole season otherwise we are waiting until 2013 for this pick. The Clippers finished in the top 10 protected area last year.

[mgent]

Cle
Det
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Tor
Was
Sac
Min

Can they really beat 3 other teams?  Golden State, Milwaukee, and Indiana  are also up-and-coming teams that had more wins last year.  New Jersey will almost surely beat them now that they got Williams.  Nash would have to take a nose-dive for them to beat Phoenix.  Utah is really the only one I could possibly see them passing this year.

I'd give them about a 25% chance at beating 3 of those 6 teams.

[Celtics4ever]

I hope we get the pick it will be needed if the Big Three breaks up then.

[Who]

Charlotte, Minnesota, Toronto, Washington and Cleveland look like the weakest squads in the league. They should round out the five worst records. From there on, it gets a bit cloudy.

Sacramento will likely remain in the basement of the league. They have a good amount of young talent and could make a jump but it's likely still too soon for them.

Demarcus Cousins is  too unrefined a talent to really help that team. We're probably talking a couple of seasons away for him. Fredette will likely need some time too. Jason Thompson hasn't been able to put it together yet either. Ditto for D.Greene. It's a shame they don't have more "ready to play" youth around Tyreke Evans because he could lead a winning team right now.

Oh also, the JJ Hickson trade will hurt them (Hickson is a bad fit on that team + Casspi is a loss) as will the likely loss of Samuel Dalembert (second best player by a large margin last season). So yeah, Sacramento are very likely to stay at the bottom of the league. Make that six teams that the Clippers should comfortably finish above.

Utah will likely fall back some more next season. A full year post Deron Williams. The likely loss of Andrei Kirilenko. Enes Kanter isn't ready to help anyone. Their wings are problem areas. Big Al still anchors their defense. Lots of problems.

They went, what, 8-16 (W-L) after Deron Williams left? That would be the equivalent of a 27 win team over the course of a full season. That sounds about right. Mainly because of Paul Millsap. If he wasn't there, that team could drop into the teens win wise.

So that makes seven teams that the Clippers should finish ahead of. Okay, this is getting kind of long so I'll switch to a new post.

[Who]

Detroit is a tough one. That team could turn into anything over the summer. I thought they underperformed badly these past two years and should have been a low seed playoff team. Horrible coaching led to a lot of internal chaos. Just bringing in Lawrence Frank will do wonders to stabilize the side. Then you also have the new ownership situation with Joe Dumars finally being given the green light to make personnel changes to the roster.

Then add a couple of big free agents in Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey + some solid rotation guys in Tracy McGrady and Chris Wilcox. And then add in that complicated backcourt situation (Stuckey, B.Gordon, Rip + W.Bynum) and add on a lottery pick (B.Knight) to complicate matters even further.

This is a team ripe for some major offseason changes. It's impossible to pin down what type of squad they'll have at this early point. It's worth pointing out that Joe Dumars doesn't like rebuilding though and will try to keep his team competitive. So, more likely to make improvements and push them back into the playoff picture than to enter a long term rebuilding process around their young guys (Monroe, Knight, Stuckey, Jerebko, Daye).

Golden State did really well to manage 36 wins last year with such a flawed and unbalanced roster. I don't think there draft pick helps them + I think their FA targets are unrealistic. Plus, they don't seem to be in a rush to correct the basic problems to the core of their roster. So, probably the same type of squad next year. Mid thirties W-L record sounds about right.

The New Jersey Nets hopes will largely rest on Brook Lopez' shoulders. Deron Williams is great and all but quite frankly he doesn't have enough help to push this team into the playoffs as currently constituted. A lot of below average players in that rotation. Badly need to upgrade Morrow, Outlaw and Humphries. One of them as a starter is fine but all three together is a problem.

Nets record was 7-17 after the trade and 4-8 with D.Williams in the lineup. They have a long way to go to get back into the playoff picture. Not optimistic about major changes to their supporting cast so their postseason hopes will rest largely on Brook Lopez' shoulders. He will need to re-establish himself as a top ten center for New Jersey to make the playoffs.

Edit: Hang on. I made a mistake. New Jersey have a lot of cap space this summer. Only $40 million on the books. They do have a good chance of strengthening that supporting cast. Okay, if they can make that cap space count that could easily push them into that a playoff spot. 

Milwaukee is another team that underperformed badly last year. They should have been a 45-50 win caliber team. Hopefully, they can stay healthy and right the ship next year.

The addition of Stephen Jackson could cause as many problems as solutions (don't like Jax + Salmons, plus don't like Delfino moving to bench). And they still have a problem with their rotation (D.Gooden's role) as PF and a hole at the backup PG and C spots. Actually, I take back my initial statement ... too many problems yet to be addressed and unlikely to be addressed. This team will likely falter again next year. A mid to high 30s win squad but outside the playoffs.

[Who]

Indiana is a weak team. They have on high level player on their roster (D.Granger) surrounded by a bunch of below average starters (Hibbert, Hansbrough, D.Collison and the wing).

Paul George would need to make a major leap forward to keep this team in playoff contention next year. I think he'll show great progress but that it will be more flash than substance and that he'll need time to refine his new and improved skill-set (third year, breakthrough year).

The bench has some quality to it. The Pacers have a great backup guard in George Hill. Jeff Foster is one of the better backup Cs in the league. He is a FA though. They need to keep him, he'd be a significant loss. Solid backup wings if they keep Dunleavy and B.Rush. Serviceable players in J.McRoberts and Dahntay Jones.

Philadelphia should hold firm as a .500 win team. They'll be battling for one of those two final playoff spots with Detroit, Milwaukee and New Jersey. The Sixers have the upper hand at the moment but NJ could steal that away with some quality FA signings. The Sixers should still have an advantage over the other two teams but it's small. Little room for error.

Okay, back out West, we have Phoenix and Houston.  

Phoenix have one of the most incompetent front offices in the league right now so I am pessimistic about their ability to correct their current flaws. However, they want to keep Nash around and have enough talent to go for 41-45 wins with Nash leading the charge.

The Houston Rockets are ripe for a fall. They have weakened their wing rotation considerably over the past 12 months by trading Ariza and Battier. They still have no center worth rotation minutes on their roster. They lost one of the best head coaches in the league (R.Adelman) over the summer and replaced him with an inexperienced but promising head coach.

And then you have Kyle Lowry who had a career year last season ... it's unclear whether he can maintain his strong performance from the second half of last year of if he'll regress.

Which brings us around the Clippers. Finally. I expect Blake Griffin to improve next season. A little better as a shot-creator, as a jump shooter and as a defender. I am expecting more of the same from Eric Gordon. Hopefully some gradual improvements from youngsters like Bledsoe and Aminu + hopefully a healthy year out of Chris Kaman. All of that should push the Clippers into the high 30s to low 40s (mostly depending on Kaman's health).

DeAndre Jordan is the main x-factor here. If he can take another large leap forward, this Clippers team suddenly becomes a threat to win 44-48 games next year. If they could acquire a solid starting forward in addition to DJ's growth, they could become a 50 win team. However, that is two major "ifs" and cannot be relied upon. More likely to end up in that high 30s to low 40s win bracket.

The Denver Nuggets are another team set for a fall this summer. They have just lost Wilson Chandler. Will likely lose Kenyon Martin and are unlikely to be able to adequately replace him. That will weaken their forward rotation considerably. I can easily see this team falling back to around .500 or below.

The New Orleans Hornets will go as far as Chris Paul takes them. In other words, so long as he isn't traded, the Hornets should be able to stay in the playoff picture but if he is traded ... they will fall fast and hard. Also, I think David West's play is likely to suffer post injury + it looks probable that Carl Landry will leave the team. That will weaken them some more. Could see New Orleans drop back a couple of wins there.

I think Phoenix will provide the strongest challenge for one of those final playoff spots in the West. Probably picking off the Nuggets. If the Hornets free fall, another spot could open up and the Clippers + Nuggets would look to be the main challengers for that position.

[Roy H.]

Best hope the lockout doesn't last the whole season otherwise we are waiting until 2013 for this pick. The Clippers finished in the top 10 protected area last year.

Yeah, I get the sense that our right to the Clippers pick is going to depend upon how the NBA structures next year's draft after a season-long lockout.  I doubt it will solely be based upon last year's record, but even if lottery chances are weighted based upon performances over several seasons, the Clippers are very likely to get a top-10 draft pick.

[mgent]

Who, why so low on the Pacers?  I don't think they're that weak.  They've got a decent bench with Ford, Rush, George, Dunleavy, and Foster.  If Hill can play like he did with the Spurs, I think he can be a neutral starter.  Collison, Hansborough, and Hibbert are still looking to realize their potential, but there's a chance they could all lose the "below-average starter" label as soon as this year.

They're very dependent on Granger and the development of their young players, but it's hard to see any of the teams in the East unseating them.  New Jersey and Detroit are a ways away.  Charlotte pretty much gave away all their talent for free.  Milwaukee has the best chance, but I don't think an aging gunner is the solution to their scoring troubles.

At the very least they'll finish better than the Clippers.

[mgent]

Curious to see what Houston can add with Yao off the books.  Lowry, Scola, and Martin is a weird (although talented) core.

[Who]

Who, why so low on the Pacers?  I don't think they're that weak.  They've got a decent bench with Ford, Rush, George, Dunleavy, and Foster.  If Hill can play like he did with the Spurs, I think he can be a neutral starter.  Collison, Hansborough, and Hibbert are still looking to realize their potential, but there's a chance they could all lose the "below-average starter" label as soon as this year.

They're very dependent on Granger and the development of their young players, but it's hard to see any of the teams in the East unseating them.  New Jersey and Detroit are a ways away.  Charlotte pretty much gave away all their talent for free.  Milwaukee has the best chance, but I don't think an aging gunner is the solution to their scoring troubles.

At the very least they'll finish better than the Clippers.

Sorry, I meant weak playoff team.

I didn't think they were good enough to make the playoffs last year and only made it because other teams, superior squads such as Milwaukee and Detroit, capsized.

They won only 37 games last year. They didn't even go .500. That gave them the 19th best record in the league. That's about where they stand in the NBA.

Somewhere around 18th-21st out of 30 teams.

[mgent]

Who, why so low on the Pacers?  I don't think they're that weak.  They've got a decent bench with Ford, Rush, George, Dunleavy, and Foster.  If Hill can play like he did with the Spurs, I think he can be a neutral starter.  Collison, Hansborough, and Hibbert are still looking to realize their potential, but there's a chance they could all lose the "below-average starter" label as soon as this year.

They're very dependent on Granger and the development of their young players, but it's hard to see any of the teams in the East unseating them.  New Jersey and Detroit are a ways away.  Charlotte pretty much gave away all their talent for free.  Milwaukee has the best chance, but I don't think an aging gunner is the solution to their scoring troubles.

At the very least they'll finish better than the Clippers.

Sorry, I meant weak playoff team.

I didn't think they were good enough to make the playoffs last year and only made it because other teams, superior squads such as Milwaukee and Detroit, capsized.

They won only 37 games last year. They didn't even go .500. That gave them the 19th best record in the league. That's about where they stand in the NBA.

Somewhere around 18th-21st out of 30 teams.

Yeah that's accurate.  Big difference between weak team and weak playoff team even in the East where playoff teams have losing records.

[Celtics18]

If the Clippers re-sign Deandre Jordan, they can trot out a starting line-up of Mo Williams, Eric Gordon, Ryan Gomes, Griffin and Jordan.  To me, that's a pretty potent lineup.  They might even have a few bucks left over to strengthen that squad with a solid veteran or two. 

I doubt very seriously that the Clippers end up in the bottom 10 next year. 

Milwaukee, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento, Utah, Phoenix, Houston, New Orleans, New Jersey, Washington, Golden State, Minnesota, Indiana, Portland, Denver, New Orleans, Charlotte, and Philadelphia are all teams who I see having a reasonable shot at ending up with a worse record than the LA Clippers next season.

Then again, they are the Clippers.