Jeff Green: The sink or swim signing

[Who]

I think Jeff Green is going to get Marvin Williams money from somebody.

$40 million over 5 years.

Let him have it...  somewhere else.

What teams do you think could / would offer Green $8 million per year?  I haven't bothered to analyze free agency at all yet.  I do think we'll see a downward adjustment of expected salaries once a new CBA is in place, but time will tell how drastic that is.

I don't have any team in particular in mind.

I just think J.Green is in that type of price range. A well regarded player around the league. Quite a few GMs over the past 2 years or so have said complimentary things about him. He is still a young player. Good potential to improve. A weak free agent class. Not much young talent available. A lot of the top wings are old veterans who are unsuitable for rebuilding teams. 

I think all of that makes Jeff Green one of the more attractive young pieces available in free agency. I expect him to be sought after. Have no problem attracting offers.

Currently the MLE is around $33 million. I think a team will have to pony up around $1 mil extra per season to land Green - to separate themselves for the many MLE offers J.Green will command - So that puts him in that $36-40 million type range.

In terms of the new CBA, I think Jeff Green will get a slightly higher than an average (MLE) contract. Whatever the new average contract works at. It'll be relative to that.

thanks for the analysis. one question though. for the salary ranges you mention above, how many years did you have in mind?

that is, are you saying $36-40 million PER year (ha, ha) or is that over 8 years? 6 years? 4 years?

5 years = $36-40 million over 5 years

Full MLE = 5 years, $32-33 million.

[LB3533]

Sign him to a 8 million per for 5 years!

[paulcowens]

If we can resign Davis and Green, we start to have a nice looking bench, with Davis, Green and West as players that could start for a lot of teams.  But if someone wants to give either of those guys big money, we should let them go.  For us, they are not starter material.  Not yet.  If they improve, yes, maybe, but right now?  No. 

[BballTim]

I am sure that we armchair GMs are all saying we would prefer a one year show-me contract but let's face reality, that isn't going to be what Green or his agent will be looking for.

While I agree that it's not what Green or his agent will want, I think a lot of guys take their qualifying offer and hit unrestricted free agency.  That's definitely the preferred route.

If Green wanted more than $4 - $5 million per season (and he will), I'd let him walk.  I wouldn't let Jeff Green be the contract that prevents us from adding a max contract in free agency.

That's the way I see it too. But if after offering him the QO his agent comes to him with a four year MLE contract elsewhere, I say we have to let him walk or work out a sign and trade for a player with an expiring contract.

  Didn't his agent claim that he turned down a rather large extension with OKC? If he can't get better than the MLE he could take the QO and try again next year when there's a full offseason and the new CBA is better understood.

[hwangjini_1]

I think Jeff Green is going to get Marvin Williams money from somebody.

$40 million over 5 years.

Let him have it...  somewhere else.

What teams do you think could / would offer Green $8 million per year?  I haven't bothered to analyze free agency at all yet.  I do think we'll see a downward adjustment of expected salaries once a new CBA is in place, but time will tell how drastic that is.

I don't have any team in particular in mind.

I just think J.Green is in that type of price range. A well regarded player around the league. Quite a few GMs over the past 2 years or so have said complimentary things about him. He is still a young player. Good potential to improve. A weak free agent class. Not much young talent available. A lot of the top wings are old veterans who are unsuitable for rebuilding teams. 

I think all of that makes Jeff Green one of the more attractive young pieces available in free agency. I expect him to be sought after. Have no problem attracting offers.

Currently the MLE is around $33 million. I think a team will have to pony up around $1 mil extra per season to land Green - to separate themselves for the many MLE offers J.Green will command - So that puts him in that $36-40 million type range.

In terms of the new CBA, I think Jeff Green will get a slightly higher than an average (MLE) contract. Whatever the new average contract works at. It'll be relative to that.

thanks for the analysis. one question though. for the salary ranges you mention above, how many years did you have in mind?

that is, are you saying $36-40 million PER year (ha, ha) or is that over 8 years? 6 years? 4 years?

5 years = $36-40 million over 5 years

Full MLE = 5 years, $32-33 million.

thanks. tp for your help.

[CelticsFanNC]

  I'm all for bringing him back at a reasonable price but if someone wants to break the bank for him then let him walk.  Without knowledge of what the new collective bargaining agreement will look like or what kind of cap exceptions there will be(if any) it is really hard to tell what his asking price may be, what his value is and who might make a move on Jeff Green.

  I'd much rather pay him a reasonable salary then Glen Davis.  Green is better now and has more upside.  I've completely tired of Glen Davis act but that's just me.  I hope Ainge can get something for Davis but I also don't want him in Boston next season unless it is the only option we have.

The difference between the two players though are that Davis is unrestricted and Green is restricted. Both will be looking for multiple years and multiple millions. Davis we don't have the option of matching an offer on and Green we do.

But, Davis is a player that has proven he can bring certain assets to the table that this team needs; an understanding of the defensive system and ability to execute it at a high level, versatility at position the team is in great need of(PF and C), a proven ability to perform in the playoffs, and except for his rookie year and the last half of last year, a very consistent outside, mid range jumper.

Green hasn't exhibited an understanding of really anything and hasn't shown he has definitive assets this team needs. He's athletic but the Celtics need basketball players, not athletes and I am not convinced he is an athletic basketball player. At this point he just seems to be an athlete.

I would resign Baby before I resigned Green.

  How long did it take for Davis to bring that asset to the table though?  A whole lot longer then most seem to be willing to give Green in the Celtics system.  You cannot expect a guy to come into Doc's system and be comfortable in it in about 1/3 of a season with little practice time. This is especially the case with a fairly young player who played on a team that doesn't defend much at all for most of his professional career and who was asked to play out of position for his entire career.  It's unrealistic.  

  Also Davis has shown at least to me that he has his own agenda and that agenda doesn't always mesh with the goals of the Celtics.  His disappearance late last season, his horrible play in the post season when he was really needed, his turning into a black hole on offense when the Celtics bench has better scoring options, his off the court issues that cost him almost half a season and the Celtics wins, his continuing battle to push himself away from the dinner table.  I am tired of it.  The guy can be an asset, WHEN HE CHOOSES TO BE ONE but that isn't always the case.   If he'd just be happy being the 'energy guy" Doc wants him to be that would be great but again he sees himself as something more then that.  Most of the time all of the Celtics signature ball movement stops as soon as Davis check into the game.   Also he is and always will be an undersized 4/5 who seems to want more money and a bigger role then he is worth.  Unless he's the only option as an experienced back up 4/5 and it is for Ainge's price and not a cent more, I'd PASS.   It's time for the Celtics and Big Baby to go in another direction. I've already seen this show and don't care to see another rerun of it.

[2short]

First off I'd work real hard at a sign and trade of Davis for a backup center
Then I'd look at what Green offers us as a player and what we can offer him in contract without handcuffing team.
Green I actually want to start at sf, doesn't mean he is better than Paul, doesn't mean end of game lineup wouldn't be Rondo, Ray, Paul, KG (pf or center), Green pf or Jermaine at c.
Green at sf gives us a low post presence.  Paul can give us time at sf or sg along with the fact that we don't kill him in minutes or guarding opposing sf like lebron.

If we are signing Green it means a good attitude player (read between the lines Davis) who can defend big pf (lebron, carmelo).  To me if Green can be assertive on defense and rebounding and play his offense at current level than I'd love to have him at a good price. 

[nickagneta]

  I'm all for bringing him back at a reasonable price but if someone wants to break the bank for him then let him walk.  Without knowledge of what the new collective bargaining agreement will look like or what kind of cap exceptions there will be(if any) it is really hard to tell what his asking price may be, what his value is and who might make a move on Jeff Green.

  I'd much rather pay him a reasonable salary then Glen Davis.  Green is better now and has more upside.  I've completely tired of Glen Davis act but that's just me.  I hope Ainge can get something for Davis but I also don't want him in Boston next season unless it is the only option we have.

The difference between the two players though are that Davis is unrestricted and Green is restricted. Both will be looking for multiple years and multiple millions. Davis we don't have the option of matching an offer on and Green we do.

But, Davis is a player that has proven he can bring certain assets to the table that this team needs; an understanding of the defensive system and ability to execute it at a high level, versatility at position the team is in great need of(PF and C), a proven ability to perform in the playoffs, and except for his rookie year and the last half of last year, a very consistent outside, mid range jumper.

Green hasn't exhibited an understanding of really anything and hasn't shown he has definitive assets this team needs. He's athletic but the Celtics need basketball players, not athletes and I am not convinced he is an athletic basketball player. At this point he just seems to be an athlete.

I would resign Baby before I resigned Green.

  How long did it take for Davis to bring that asset to the table though?  A whole lot longer then most seem to be willing to give Green in the Celtics system.  You cannot expect a guy to come into Doc's system and be comfortable in it in about 1/3 of a season with little practice time. This is especially the case with a fairly young player who played on a team that doesn't defend much at all for most of his professional career and who was asked to play out of position for his entire career.  It's unrealistic.  

  Also Davis has shown at least to me that he has his own agenda and that agenda doesn't always mesh with the goals of the Celtics.  His disappearance late last season, his horrible play in the post season when he was really needed, his turning into a black hole on offense when the Celtics bench has better scoring options, his off the court issues that cost him almost half a season and the Celtics wins, his continuing battle to push himself away from the dinner table.  I am tired of it.  The guy can be an asset, WHEN HE CHOOSES TO BE ONE but that isn't always the case.   If he'd just be happy being the 'energy guy" Doc wants him to be that would be great but again he sees himself as something more then that.  Most of the time all of the Celtics signature ball movement stops as soon as Davis check into the game.   Also he is and always will be an undersized 4/5 who seems to want more money and a bigger role then he is worth.  Unless he's the only option as an experienced back up 4/5 and it is for Ainge's price and not a cent more, I'd PASS.   It's time for the Celtics and Big Baby to go in another direction. I've already seen this show and don't care to see another rerun of it.

I understand your frustration with Baby and I see a lot of the same problems with him. But he isn't going to be any more than a $3-4 million a year player on short years. Finding a replacement for what he does that can be as effective as him at his price will be extremely difficult to find.

Remember, all the team has is the MLE, the LLE and vet minimum contracts and they probably have to sign at least two centers.

And I don't see Green as a PF, never have, so he isn't a Baby replacement, he's a Pierce backup. And he could be expensive.

Baby might need to be resigned simply because he can play the 4-5 even if he is a poor man's example of that type of player. The C's will need bigs and Baby is big. Green isn't nor does he play big.

[CelticsFanNC]

  I'm all for bringing him back at a reasonable price but if someone wants to break the bank for him then let him walk.  Without knowledge of what the new collective bargaining agreement will look like or what kind of cap exceptions there will be(if any) it is really hard to tell what his asking price may be, what his value is and who might make a move on Jeff Green.

  I'd much rather pay him a reasonable salary then Glen Davis.  Green is better now and has more upside.  I've completely tired of Glen Davis act but that's just me.  I hope Ainge can get something for Davis but I also don't want him in Boston next season unless it is the only option we have.

The difference between the two players though are that Davis is unrestricted and Green is restricted. Both will be looking for multiple years and multiple millions. Davis we don't have the option of matching an offer on and Green we do.

But, Davis is a player that has proven he can bring certain assets to the table that this team needs; an understanding of the defensive system and ability to execute it at a high level, versatility at position the team is in great need of(PF and C), a proven ability to perform in the playoffs, and except for his rookie year and the last half of last year, a very consistent outside, mid range jumper.

Green hasn't exhibited an understanding of really anything and hasn't shown he has definitive assets this team needs. He's athletic but the Celtics need basketball players, not athletes and I am not convinced he is an athletic basketball player. At this point he just seems to be an athlete.

I would resign Baby before I resigned Green.

  How long did it take for Davis to bring that asset to the table though?  A whole lot longer then most seem to be willing to give Green in the Celtics system.  You cannot expect a guy to come into Doc's system and be comfortable in it in about 1/3 of a season with little practice time. This is especially the case with a fairly young player who played on a team that doesn't defend much at all for most of his professional career and who was asked to play out of position for his entire career.  It's unrealistic.  

  Also Davis has shown at least to me that he has his own agenda and that agenda doesn't always mesh with the goals of the Celtics.  His disappearance late last season, his horrible play in the post season when he was really needed, his turning into a black hole on offense when the Celtics bench has better scoring options, his off the court issues that cost him almost half a season and the Celtics wins, his continuing battle to push himself away from the dinner table.  I am tired of it.  The guy can be an asset, WHEN HE CHOOSES TO BE ONE but that isn't always the case.   If he'd just be happy being the 'energy guy" Doc wants him to be that would be great but again he sees himself as something more then that.  Most of the time all of the Celtics signature ball movement stops as soon as Davis check into the game.   Also he is and always will be an undersized 4/5 who seems to want more money and a bigger role then he is worth.  Unless he's the only option as an experienced back up 4/5 and it is for Ainge's price and not a cent more, I'd PASS.   It's time for the Celtics and Big Baby to go in another direction. I've already seen this show and don't care to see another rerun of it.

I understand your frustration with Baby and I see a lot of the same problems with him. But he isn't going to be any more than a $3-4 million a year player on short years. Finding a replacement for what he does that can be as effective as him at his price will be extremely difficult to find.

Remember, all the team has is the MLE, the LLE and vet minimum contracts and they probably have to sign at least two centers.

And I don't see Green as a PF, never have, so he isn't a Baby replacement, he's a Pierce backup. And he could be expensive.

Baby might need to be resigned simply because he can play the 4-5 even if he is a poor man's example of that type of player. The C's will need bigs and Baby is big. Green isn't nor does he play big.

  I agree, it all comes down to money.  If there is a market demand for Green and he is asking for more money/years then Ainge has in his mind as his worth then I'm passing on him as well.  

  I'm also not convinced that the same dumb GM who might overpay for Green might also overpay for Davis. The demand might not be as high but someone may bite on Davis this time around.  

  I'm not nearly as convinced that Green is as completely money motivated as Davis seems to be.  In my mind Green is more likely to give a hometown discount to stay in what could turn out to be a great situation for him in the short and long term.  Davis is going to the highest bidder.

[nickagneta]

Regarding Green taking a home town discount, I don't see it. Let's not forget he is a #5 overall pick who just finish making $4.5 million a year or $1.5 million a year more than what Davis got last year. He also has a qualifying offer awaiting him for $5.9 million for one year that the C's will undoubtably offer him.

What incentive does he have to offer the Celtics a home town discount when he is coming off his rookie contract, will not be looking to take less per year than the $5.9 million he is almost guaranteed to make at least for one year, and is in a bad free agent class that could mean people willing to overpay for his "potential".

If I'm his agent, I'm advising setting up him and his family for life by taking the most money over the most years he can get, not taking a discount to remain with a team that you have no loyalties whatsoever having played only about a third of a season.

[CelticsFanNC]

Regarding Green taking a home town discount, I don't see it. Let's not forget he is a #5 overall pick who just finish making $4.5 million a year or $1.5 million a year more than what Davis got last year. He also has a qualifying offer awaiting him for $5.9 million for one year that the C's will undoubtably offer him.

What incentive does he have to offer the Celtics a home town discount when he is coming off his rookie contract, will not be looking to take less per year than the $5.9 million he is almost guaranteed to make at least for one year, and is in a bad free agent class that could mean people willing to overpay for his "potential".

If I'm his agent, I'm advising setting up him and his family for life by taking the most money over the most years he can get, not taking a discount to remain with a team that you have no loyalties whatsoever having played only about a third of a season.

  That could be the case as well.

 I am pretty convinced Davis is all about the money at this point in his career.  Green may want his pay day.  He may get it.  I don't know as much about Green.  He may really appreciate the idea of learning under 3 future HOFers on a title contender until his opportunity to replace Paul Pierce comes.  He may be completely money motivated like Davis seems to be.  I'm not as certain because I dont know as much about him.

[ManUp]

Sign and trade. I think he's worth more to us as a trade chip than contributor. Imo, he's peaked as a player, but there's probably some gms still willing to pay for his potential. I would have no problem keeping him at MLE money though.

[tenn_smoothie]

this is all very interesting - but if Green is such a question mark for this team or any other, why did Ainge make the most controversial trade of his career and bank the Celtics title hopes on basically a-little-above-average-player who brings nothing special with him when he enters a game ........... and he didn't - watching Green was like being thirsty and opening an ice-cold can of coke only to find out that it's flat.

[cman88]

The celtics did give Green a q.O. right before the lockout. so, best case scenario we get him one year at 5.9million$$

I think its unrealistic for all of us to jump on the guy for not fully getting the system when he was basically thrust into the situation right before the playoffs and asked to be a backup SF when hes been a PF his whole career. statistically wise, he was able to shoot a higher %, and if a role can be carved out for him, maybe we can see increased production

Jeff Green has alot of talent, and if given a training camp and more time to understand Doc's system defensively/offensively I think he can thrive here in a 6th man sort of role

[LooseCannon]

If we can resign Davis and Green, we start to have a nice looking bench, with Davis, Green and West as players that could start for a lot of teams.

Name those teams.