Will There Be A Season? What's You Gut Feeling?

[wdleehi]

Too early to say.

Neither side is going to feel any urgency to reach a deal until late September early October.

my thought's exactley same thing with the nfl once they felt the pressure of preseason money being lost they gotta deal done quick , wont be till around then untill something starts moving my guy says we'll start the season chrstmas day

Some NBA owners are already losing money.


NFL is a money making juggernaut.  


Completely different issues.  

[Chris]

My gut tells me that the entire season will be missed.  I feel 100% confident that the owners are dedicated to fixing the system, and feel like they cannot give in like they did last time to a system that does not make sense financially (in their opinion). 

And at the same time, I think the players, for whatever reason, do not believe that the owners are serious.  I think the players are preparing to play chicken, and I don't think they are going to realize that they can't win this until it is past the point of return for next season.

If the players are that dumb, then why won't the lockout go on to the season after that?  Either they give in so they can play, or they commit to fighting, depends on which they care about more.

I find it hard to believe that the players will just suddenly realize the state of affairs AFTER they've already given up their season.

I agree and I have to think that the overseas market for players might be enough to sustain enough players through the lockout for this to possibly be looking at a second lost season whereby then I think it will be the owners that crash.

See, this is something I don't buy for 1 reason.  I don't think the players are going to be forced back to the table because they are broke.  I think that is just a few cases that are overblown.

However, what I do think is going to happen is that these guys are going to see their careers shortened, and that is going to scare them. 

Even if they are making some money in Europe, the majority of them are not going to be making nearly as much as they would make in the NBA, even under the current low-ball offer by the owners.  And even more importantly for a lot of the players, they are losing important years where they could be building their legacy...and for what?

At some point these players are going to look at it and realize that they are losing much more money by holding out longer than they would be by just giving in.  Sure, future generations might not be making as much money as if the players took the owners to the cleaners, but as these guys miss more games and paychecks, that stuff is going to be wiped out when they realize they are losing their present for someone else's future.

[Kane3387]

The making money overseas thing has a lot of variable to it also. The style of living and treatment by franchises is nothing like here in the States in regards to the NBA. Many players have gone overseas and not been paid. Many leagues won't take players under NBA contracts. Many of these guys will not like living in a foreign country away from all of the familiarities in the states.

I think around January we will have games and in december we will have a crazy free agency period. I also don't think there will be an All Star weekend.

[Marcus13]

I think we'll get half-a-season.  Not based on much of anything except that these players are irresponsible and need paychecks coming in

[PosImpos]

Yes, but seriously shortened, and the "product" -- the basketball we get to watch -- will be significantly worse than we're used to.

[Kane3387]

Yes, but seriously shortened, and the "product" -- the basketball we get to watch -- will be significantly worse than we're used to.

Still at least the majority of the interesting story lines will be kept intact for next season. After all the story lines and drama of sports is what keeps casual fans interested for the most part.

[greenpride32]

My gut tells me there will be shortened season.

Not sure where all these owners will cave comments are coming from.  23 of 30 teams are losing money.  If changes aren't made it's in the owners' best interest to not have a season.  The players on the other hand are either going to get no pay at all or accept a reduced salary, so it's a very extreme situation for them.  The pressure is really on the players.

Quote from Jordan:

"The model we've been operating under is broken. We have 22 or 23 teams losing money, (so) I think we have gotta come to some kind of understanding in this partnership that we have to realign,...

I can't say so much ... but I know the owners are not going to move off what we feel is very necessary for us to get a deal in place where we can co-exist as partners. We need a lot of financial support throughout the league as well as revenue sharing to keep this business afloat."

[nickagneta]

My gut tells me that the entire season will be missed.  I feel 100% confident that the owners are dedicated to fixing the system, and feel like they cannot give in like they did last time to a system that does not make sense financially (in their opinion).  

And at the same time, I think the players, for whatever reason, do not believe that the owners are serious.  I think the players are preparing to play chicken, and I don't think they are going to realize that they can't win this until it is past the point of return for next season.

If the players are that dumb, then why won't the lockout go on to the season after that?  Either they give in so they can play, or they commit to fighting, depends on which they care about more.

I find it hard to believe that the players will just suddenly realize the state of affairs AFTER they've already given up their season.

I agree and I have to think that the overseas market for players might be enough to sustain enough players through the lockout for this to possibly be looking at a second lost season whereby then I think it will be the owners that crash.

See, this is something I don't buy for 1 reason.  I don't think the players are going to be forced back to the table because they are broke.  I think that is just a few cases that are overblown.

However, what I do think is going to happen is that these guys are going to see their careers shortened, and that is going to scare them.  

Even if they are making some money in Europe, the majority of them are not going to be making nearly as much as they would make in the NBA, even under the current low-ball offer by the owners.  And even more importantly for a lot of the players, they are losing important years where they could be building their legacy...and for what?

At some point these players are going to look at it and realize that they are losing much more money by holding out longer than they would be by just giving in.  Sure, future generations might not be making as much money as if the players took the owners to the cleaners, but as these guys miss more games and paychecks, that stuff is going to be wiped out when they realize they are losing their present for someone else's future.

I don't buy the whole,"the players will be worry about their legacy" bit. First off, how many players have a legacy? The top 1-2% of the best players ever? Maybe?

I mean are Nicolas Batum, Ersan Ilyasova, Nenad Krstic, Leandro Barbosa, Ron Artest, Patty Mills, Jordan Farmer, Sasha Vujacic, Sonny Weems, Von Wafer, Ty Lawson, David Anderson, Timofey Movgov, Andrei Kirilenko, etc. the type of players that are or should be worrying about their legacy?

Also, if Deron Williams and a few other stars show that you can make millions overseas playing(though not as much) while signing new and different endorsement contracts and growing their "brand" overseas, it could open newer markets and perhaps lead to other stars seeing the benefit in playing overseas during the lockout.

I think this bares watching. I think this could be a huge factor when you consider markets in Europe, Brazil, and Asia suddenly opening up to local teams selling Williams, Kobe, Wade or LeBron or Bosh paraphernalia in something other than "NBA Brand" gear. Especially if the players are getting a direct cut of those sales.

[slamtheking]

I think it'll be a lost season. 

I don't see the owners caving for a very important reason-->they all have other incomes and businesses that actually make money, hence their ability to buy their teams.   They don't need the money (or the losses that they claim) with that other income.  They can afford to wait out the players.  The players will miss the paychecks after a year (international opportunities notwithstanding) and will make the volume of concessions to get back to playing. 

I don't have a good feeling that the owners will budge much to make a deal and the players haven't gotten desperate enough to make concessions.

[thirstyboots18]

If the players don't realize that they  will have to work many extra years to recoup the money they would have made this year, the term "dumb jock" comes to mind.

IMO, players like Kevin Garnett, Kobe, and the stars with the Mega contracts and lucrative careers as product representatives are hurting the new players/rookies and older journeyman type players with the decision to hardball the owners.

(oh, I  think they will realize this and there will be a season.)

[Celtics18]

I agree with Nick on this one.  I think the overseas market will play a huge factor in all of this.  If the owners become too stubborn and won't compromise enough, the players will still have a chance to get paid to play basketball.

A lot of them are already starting to exercise that option.  World Ball is the biggest weapon in the players' arsenal right now.  And many of them seem ready to pull the trigger. 

[greenpride32]

Also, if Deron Williams and a few other stars show that you can make millions overseas playing(though not as much) while signing new and different endorsement contracts and growing their "brand" overseas, it could open newer markets and perhaps lead to other stars seeing the benefit in playing overseas during the lockout.

I think this bares watching. I think this could be a huge factor when you consider markets in Europe, Brazil, and Asia suddenly opening up to local teams selling Williams, Kobe, Wade or LeBron or Bosh paraphernalia in something other than "NBA Brand" gear. Especially if the players are getting a direct cut of those sales.

It will take years and years before any league can catch up to the NBA in terms of revenue, and with that pay scale.  You are saying the players will take less now and see how other markets can grow.  But then my question is; why not take a lower pay in the NBA now that will still be higher than the pay you will get in other leagues?  What you're suggesting makes no sense as the players want to get paid now; they're not looking to try and grow their brand over the course of years.

[Celtics18]

Also, if Deron Williams and a few other stars show that you can make millions overseas playing(though not as much) while signing new and different endorsement contracts and growing their "brand" overseas, it could open newer markets and perhaps lead to other stars seeing the benefit in playing overseas during the lockout.

I think this bares watching. I think this could be a huge factor when you consider markets in Europe, Brazil, and Asia suddenly opening up to local teams selling Williams, Kobe, Wade or LeBron or Bosh paraphernalia in something other than "NBA Brand" gear. Especially if the players are getting a direct cut of those sales.

It will take years and years before any league can catch up to the NBA in terms of revenue, and with that pay scale.  You are saying the players will take less now and see how other markets can grow.  But then my question is; why not take a lower pay in the NBA now that will still be higher than the pay you will get in other leagues?  What you're suggesting makes no sense as the players want to get paid now; they're not looking to try and grow their brand over the course of years.

Good point, but the players are also going to be stubborn on this, and they feel like international ball is a major trump card for their side.  For that reason, they'll use it as much as possible to put pressure on the owners.  If the owners won't budge then we could have a stalemate.  Many of them will be able to be paid now. It won't be as much as the NBA, but they'll still be making a handsome living playing  basketball. 

You hear players talking about "respect" being a more important factor than the dollar amount on their pay checks when negotiating new contracts.  Well, I think they are feeling disrespected by the league right now, and they will jump ship to Europe for a pay cut rather than cave to all the owners' demands.

[nickagneta]

Also, if Deron Williams and a few other stars show that you can make millions overseas playing(though not as much) while signing new and different endorsement contracts and growing their "brand" overseas, it could open newer markets and perhaps lead to other stars seeing the benefit in playing overseas during the lockout.

I think this bares watching. I think this could be a huge factor when you consider markets in Europe, Brazil, and Asia suddenly opening up to local teams selling Williams, Kobe, Wade or LeBron or Bosh paraphernalia in something other than "NBA Brand" gear. Especially if the players are getting a direct cut of those sales.

It will take years and years before any league can catch up to the NBA in terms of revenue, and with that pay scale.  You are saying the players will take less now and see how other markets can grow.  But then my question is; why not take a lower pay in the NBA now that will still be higher than the pay you will get in other leagues?  What you're suggesting makes no sense as the players want to get paid now; they're not looking to try and grow their brand over the course of years.

It makes no sense for the superstars but everyone else it does. And it make make sense for the superstars. They still have their shoes endorsement contracts. But they don't see any money from anything with their name on it that is sold through NBA Properties. But, if they want to negotiate that they receive a cut of jersey sales or anything else sold with their name on it overseas, they could and make huge money. Especially if a company starts selling those jerseys in the states where kids might love to get their hands on a Lebron or Kobe or Rondo jersey with another team.

Possibilities for endorsements and deals like this for the superstars could definitely make up the missed money they are receiving.

And as for the non-superstars, who do you think is going to take the biggest hit when the new CBA is done? It won't be the superstars. It will be the role players and the bench guys, guys already streaming over to Europe and Brazil and China to play ball. They are going to get screwed anyway, so they might as well get paid something somewhere.

[dark_lord]

i believe there will be a season.  i have nothing to base this on, other than a non-educated "gut feeling".  it might not be a full season, but i think they play.