If not Howard, get Gilbert Arenas!

[EDWARDO]

If this sounds like the stupidest idea ever, then good. We are on the same page.

What do we do if we get to the end on next season and it becomes clear that Dwight Howard isn't taking his talents to Boston? We'll have Rondo, Pierce, a couple other cheap pieces and a zillion bucks in cap space. As much as I like Rondo, he's not "best guy on a title contender material". (If you go back over the past 30yrs, the number of teams that won the title without a guy who was i the top 3 guys in the NBA is maybe 2-3... Pistons 2004, maybe our Celts and the Mavs (was Dirk top 3 heading into the playoffs? not sure i would have said that). The point being, I don't think you can have Rondo and add some mid/high level free agents and expect to contend. You need to get a "best guy on a title contender" -- Howard is one, but its a short list. What DA is trying to do is set us up to find that guy.

So we finish next year and DH12 is not coming. I don't think DA will pull a Joe Dumars and just spend the money just because he has it. Dumars had cash and went out and got Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon -- those moves will have killed that franchise for a few years. They basically CREATED terrible contracts and got nothing in return except for heartache and the virtual guarantee you will be picking in the top 10 for a few years. Terrible.

If there's no other player worthy of a big big deal, Danny COULD trade for Arenas... take on the worst contract in the league for the remaining 2yrs, but also say "we have the cap space to take this trade on, but we need to PAID to take it on... probably needs to be a 3 or 4 team trade, but get us a sack full of picks and we're willing to do this". Orlando, especially if they retain Howard, will do virtually anything to get out from under that contract. If they could just trade their next 3 #1s and Arenas for someone right now for nothing, they would do it in a second. (PLEASE NOTE, JUST PICKS FROM ORLANDO WON'T BE ENOUGH TO TAKE ON THIS AWFUL CONTRACT... WILL NEED UNPROTECTED PICKS FROM OTHERS IN A 3 WAY DEAL.) The Celts could do that with 2-3 guys, all with deals expiring in 2014 and have the same cap situation as this year- a few cheap guys and a zillion bucks of cap space, but also with a ton of picks and assets. If you are trying to get one of the handful of "best guy on a title contender" guys instead of overpaying for mediocre guys, this is an option.

Not saying we should do this. Just food for thought. I think a very cold, calculated GM makes this kind of move.

Want to make a quick modification/addition to this.

The basic philosophy behind this is as follows:

1) Titles are won by almost always won by superstars with good teams around them, not by teams of good/very good players. These players are typically the #1 pick in the draft, but sometimes circumstances mean a superstar calibur player falls in the draft. Almost every title over the past 30yrs was won by a #1 pick (Magic, Hakeem, Shaq, Isiah, Duncan) or a player who would have gone #1 given a full 4yrs in US college ball (Kobe, Dirk, KG, MJ). Bird was stolen by Red at #6. That covers almost all the titles.

Thus, a team that wants to win titles, not just by pretty good and make the playoffs, is always always searching for a way to find one of these guys.

2) There are 3 ways to actively try to find these guys:

A. Draft early and hope its a year with a great great player (or 2).
B. Build up mega cap space and try to sign a FA superstar (Shaq, Lebron)
C. Build up a roster of young talent and accumulate picks to trade for a superstar (IE, the Ainge Method -- i guess i'm still surprised people think that Ainge sucks as a GM as he's one of maybe 2-3 GMs that's been able to put together a title contender without drafting very very early or by signing a FA... this is definitely the hard way, but sometimes the only way).

Obviously, everyone is hoping to strike gold with all of their picks in hopes of getting a "Kobe-at-13" scenario, but that's not really an active way to try to get a superstar.

3) A team of good/very good players RARELY wins a title in the NBA. Let's use Al Horford as an example. A very good player and borderline All Star kind of guy. Perhaps the ideal guy to be your THIRD best player, but even if you have 3, 4 or 5 "Al Horford quality" guys on a team, that team has typically not won an NBA title. Teams with superstars usually win NBA titles.

3) A cold calculated logical GM could care less if his team is the 5th best or 25th best team. He'd prefer to be at the very top (obviously) or at the very bottom with a chance to hit on a top pick. Its all about getting into position to get that "best guy on a title contender".

4) A "best guy on a title contender" is worth overpaying for, but are few and far between. Almost all other FAs aren't worth the money they are paid, and unless you are putting them next to a "best guy on a title contender", they can only improve your team to a level just under "title contender" and not any higher.

5) So, if we have Rondo and an aging Pierce, spending money on OJ Mayo, Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon probably doesn't make us a title contender. (I have to say, i love Gordon though). It probably makes us pretty good, but not good enough.

6) A cold, calculated, logical GM (also, operating in a vacuum with no concerns of filling seats, keeping fans happy for a year or two, etc) who is SINGULARLY bent on winning a title would have to seriously entertain the following... finding 3 guys with awful contracts, all expiring in 2014. Taking on those contracts while picking up a slew of unprotected #1 picks in the future and not just from an Orlando team that should be title contenders... need shots at future lottery picks).

Under the scenario of signing some good to possibly very good FAs (even if all goes well and they live up to their very large contracts), its very likely we don't have a title to show for it.

Under the "Agent 0 Scorched Earth Plan", we come out with a few high picks of our own, plus a bunch of other picks and again massive cap room in 2014.

[Roy H.]

I was expecting this to be a horrible trade idea, but kudos, it's an interesting thought.  It would be a balancing test:  how good are the free agents we could sign or the players we could trade for with cap space, versus the picks we could get from Orlando?  My guess is, they'd only do the deal if 1) Howard re-signed, or 2) the picks were heavily protected.  Therefore, it might not be worth it.  Still, an interesting idea; as Danny proved once, rebuilding if often about accumulating "chips".

[EDWARDO]

Roy... made a quick modification above. I mean, its honestly more for thought than anything else. Teams aren't run in a vacuum. But I believe Danny is a pretty cold, calculated, logical dude who is willing to make dramatic steps.

[cman88]

well, 2013 will see players like Josh Smith and OJ mayo, al jefferson become free agents...josh smith/mayo have expressed interest in playing with Rondo...if Howard doesnt come, they may be the 2nd next best options.

[EDWARDO]

well, 2013 will see players like Josh Smith and OJ mayo, al jefferson become free agents...josh smith/mayo have expressed interest in playing with Rondo...if Howard doesnt come, they may be the 2nd next best options.

Good grief, did you read any of this? This is EXACTLY what I was talking about. Even if we had Rondo AND Josh Smith AND Mayo AND Jefferson, we still don't win the title!!!

That's the whole point!

[bfrombleacher]

Are you by any chance an evil genius?

That is...malicious...

[Surferdad]

I was expecting this to be a horrible trade idea, but kudos, it's an interesting thought.  It would be a balancing test:  how good are the free agents we could sign or the players we could trade for with cap space, versus the picks we could get from Orlando?  My guess is, they'd only do the deal if 1) Howard re-signed, or 2) the picks were heavily protected.  Therefore, it might not be worth it.  Still, an interesting idea; as Danny proved once, rebuilding if often about accumulating "chips".

Yeah, it's not common anymore to trade unprotected picks.  Trading partners also know the value of #1 picks so I don't see most GMs going into deals like that.

Still, you get points for creative thinking during a very slow hoops time.

[EDWARDO]

I was expecting this to be a horrible trade idea, but kudos, it's an interesting thought.  It would be a balancing test:  how good are the free agents we could sign or the players we could trade for with cap space, versus the picks we could get from Orlando?  My guess is, they'd only do the deal if 1) Howard re-signed, or 2) the picks were heavily protected.  Therefore, it might not be worth it.  Still, an interesting idea; as Danny proved once, rebuilding if often about accumulating "chips".

Yeah, it's not common anymore to trade unprotected picks.  Trading partners also know the value of #1 picks so I don't see most GMs going into deals like that.

Still, you get points for creative thinking during a very slow hoops time.

Chris Wallace is still a GM in this league. Perhaps he can do us a solid after choosing to take the 10th pick in the draft instead of waiting for an unprotected #1 pick in a draft with LEBRON, Carmelo and Wade. The single worst GM decision ever.

[slamtheking]

interesting thought.  I wouldn't be against the accumulation of trade chips (lots of them) in exchange for taking on another team's bad contract or two for a  couple of years.

Also, I'm not sure a team of Rondo, Mayo, Smith and Big Al doesn't make some noise in the league depending on the rest of the roster.  Green, Bradley and Johnson with some of those other (hopefully high) draft picks could turn out to be a pretty good team.  probably wouldn't get past Miami or maybe Chicago but that would depend on the rest of the team's make up.

[action781]

interesting thought.  I wouldn't be against the accumulation of trade chips (lots of them) in exchange for taking on another team's bad contract or two for a  couple of years.

I agree.  We're not going to win in '13 or '14 anyways if we don't get Howard, so why not make ourselves worse than we would otherwise be those 2 years in order to improve our chances in '14.  Those draft picks could come very in handy in a potential trade for a guy that won't extend a contract like D-Will or 'Melo. 

[TheTruthFot18]

I was expecting this to be a horrible trade idea, but kudos, it's an interesting thought.  It would be a balancing test:  how good are the free agents we could sign or the players we could trade for with cap space, versus the picks we could get from Orlando?  My guess is, they'd only do the deal if 1) Howard re-signed, or 2) the picks were heavily protected.  Therefore, it might not be worth it.  Still, an interesting idea; as Danny proved once, rebuilding if often about accumulating "chips".

I was going to just shake my head and walk away. But TP to OP for the argument. Although at times I was wondering why I was still reading something that concerns Gilbert Arenas coming to Boston. Still good read in the end.

[EDWARDO]

interesting thought.  I wouldn't be against the accumulation of trade chips (lots of them) in exchange for taking on another team's bad contract or two for a  couple of years.

Also, I'm not sure a team of Rondo, Mayo, Smith and Big Al doesn't make some noise in the league depending on the rest of the roster.  Green, Bradley and Johnson with some of those other (hopefully high) draft picks could turn out to be a pretty good team.  probably wouldn't get past Miami or maybe Chicago but that would depend on the rest of the team's make up.

Honestly? That team sucks.

No one on it even close to being "the best guy on a title contender". That frankly looks like the Hawks teams of the last few years. A bunch of good to very good players that has not chance of winning a title. Exactly what you DON'T want.

[Celtics18]

I think you are underestimating the impact that Rondo has and will continue to have on this team.  He may never be considered a top 5 player, but with a strong team around him, I think the Celtics will be able to remain contenders.

I guess I just don't buy the original premise that it's more about having the one superstar than having a complete team.  That may have been the case through the '80s and '90s but that model has slowly been starting to change over the last decade.

As a fan of the game, I've never been a fan of the superstar system of the NBA.  I think it's great that the talent is getting deeper, and the top 2 or 3 players in the league can't dominate the entire league the way guys like Jordan, Magic, and Bird did. 

[BballTim]

interesting thought.  I wouldn't be against the accumulation of trade chips (lots of them) in exchange for taking on another team's bad contract or two for a  couple of years.

Also, I'm not sure a team of Rondo, Mayo, Smith and Big Al doesn't make some noise in the league depending on the rest of the roster.  Green, Bradley and Johnson with some of those other (hopefully high) draft picks could turn out to be a pretty good team.  probably wouldn't get past Miami or maybe Chicago but that would depend on the rest of the team's make up.

Honestly? That team sucks.

No one on it even close to being "the best guy on a title contender". That frankly looks like the Hawks teams of the last few years. A bunch of good to very good players that has not chance of winning a title. Exactly what you DON'T want.

  One could easily argue that Rondo's been the best player on a title contending team already.

[Surferdad]

I think you are underestimating the impact that Rondo has and will continue to have on this team.  He may never be considered a top 5 player, but with a strong team around him, I think the Celtics will be able to remain contenders.

I guess I just don't buy the original premise that it's more about having the one superstar than having a complete team.  That may have been the case through the '80s and '90s but that model has slowly been starting to change over the last decade.

As a fan of the game, I've never been a fan of the superstar system of the NBA.  I think it's great that the talent is getting deeper, and the top 2 or 3 players in the league can't dominate the entire league the way guys like Jordan, Magic, and Bird did. 

Respectfully disagree.  Other than the 2004 Pistons, this league has been driven by superstars and it's getting moreso recently.