Western Conference 1st Round: Jazz (3) V Nuggets (6)

Jazz Press Conference

Nuggets Press Conference

GMs should post what their tactics would be, how they feel they'd match up, and how they'd handle their rotations. Note that HCA will be the tie-breaker if voting is tied at the end of Tuesday, August 2nd.

Once this round of the playoffs is over, I'll be merging this with the rest of the Western 1st Rd matchups

Note to GMs off playoff teams:
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7. You may not vote for your own team, this is to prevent skewing of overall results by every game theory loving GM from voting themselves in first place.
This rule is a bit unclear it was meant for regular season voting, it doesn't matter in a head to head situation so feel free to list your own team as the winner. If a GM doesn't think his team will win (or fails to vote) boo to him!

Each GM team will still however only get a single vote however, I will count the first ballot I receive. Deadline for voting is 11:59 PM Tuesday.

First, let me say that I didn't want to face the Spurs here. They're a heck of a team led by a heck of a GM, and likely deserved better than a 7 seed. But, since I am facing them here, screw them.

Blazers' Playoff rotation:

PG: Lowry (37), Sessions (11)
SG: Harden (35), Morrow (13)
SF: Delfino (32), Williams (16)
PF: Stoudemire (24), Williams (14), Jerebko (10)
C: Bogut (35), Stoudemire (13)

Offensive Gameplan:

P&R

The Spurs' front line defensively is weak. They're starting two guys (Boozer, Kaman), neither of which is a capable defensive anchor. Their perimeter players are much better defensively, but without the support of the frontline, the team will be deeply susceptible to pick and roll.

And that's the way we'll attack in the half-court. There are 3 main P&R ball handlers on my squad: Lowry, Harden, and Sessions. There are 3 main P&R 'pickers' on my squad, Amar'e, Bogut, and Derrick Williams.

James Harden proved this past season, and the ensuing post-season that he is a very gifted and dangerous man off the pick and roll as the ball-handler, converting on 46% of his attempts which according to Synergy Sports grades out as "Very Good". Kyle Lowry has shown the ability to penetrate defenses at will, and that's against even solid defensive units. Ramon Sessions might not have a 3pt shot, but he's been squirming and jump-stopping his way into traffic for years with consistency and converting shot jumpers and layups.

The pick and roll attack will at once help to mollify the effect of San An's very good defenders at 1-3, while also helping to expose the biggest weaknesses of their big men.

Other options:

I'll also give Amar'e Stoudemire his fair share to screw with Boozer's Dr. Evil goatee in isolation off of handoffs and dump-passes from James Harden.

In transition, my team is brutal for the Spurs. Lowry is as fast as Westbrook, and better defensively. Amar'e Stoudemire and Derrick Williams should be one of the most dangerous forward tandem in transition in this fake league. James Harden ranks out statistically as the 33rd best player in the league in transition, and Carlos Delfino is more than capable of hitting a corner 3 in transition.

THat's important, because I have the league's leader in blocks per game, and the 3rd best player at blocking a shot while not being assessed a personal foul in Andrew Bogut. Combine that with Kyle Lowry's All-NBA level defense, and even Amar'e Stoudemire's 7th best in the NBA 1.91 blocks per game, and there will be ample opportunity for transition baskets from my dangerous forwards while Boozer, Kaman, and Hill struggle back.

Now you might say that Bogut holds this team back from getting out in transition, and if I make Bogut the focal point of my offense, you'd be somewhat right here. He's nowhere near the lumbering leviathan that Kaman is, but Bogut is hardly spry when considered next to Williams, STAT, or Jerebko.

But, Bogut is one of the best big-man passers in the NBA. With his nearly 3 blocks per game, and rebounding ability, Bogut should have plenty of time to let out a smart outlet pass. He doesn't have to be the first guy down there to help my team in transition, he's just got to get the ball to the guys to help put one of my finishers in a position to do damage, and he's fully capable of doing that.

On Defense:

Its not going to be all-man defense, but basically that's what its going to come down to. I've got first-class defenders (Lowry, Delfino, Bogut) at all of their primary scorers (Westbrook, Hill, Kaman) besides Carlos Boozer. Bogut will be the only guy who will be allowed any latitude to patrol the paint, and Amar'e especially will be given explicit instructions when playing PF: GUARD CARLOS BOOZER, AND DON'T DO MUCH OF ANYTHING ELSE

I'm expecting middling results. 25 points from Amar'e to 18-20 points from Boozer, which is right in line with their career averages in head to head matchups.

My secret weapon will be that whenever Boozer moves out of the lineup, Amar'e will slide over to the 5-spot, and Derrick Williams will enter the game at the 4, or move over from the 3. While I don't think covering both Kaman/Boozer with Amar'e at the center position is a sustainable idea, I do think that when only Kaman or the 2nd string center is in the game, Derrick Williams will be at the 4 to embarrass whoever is trying to guard him.

Also by this time, Jonas Jerebko will be well into the swing of things, so while his playing time will be going down, he will be more than ready to take some of Derrick Williams' minutes at the 4 if for some reason the rookie gets blinded by those playoff lights.

Which won't happen. Anyone who watch Derrick Williams during the NCAA's tournament understands that he's not scared of the playoffs, he's waiting for them.

Blazers in 5.

Open

Open

There was only one team in the West that I thought was a strong favourite in a playoff series against my Phoenix Suns team and that was the Sacramento Kings. I thought Portland had a slight advantage too but that the Suns should be favoured against everyone else in the West in a seven game series.

To be clear - I do think that the Suns have a chance of winning this series but the Kings are the firm favourite. If this series were to play out five times, I think Sacramento would win 4 times and Suns once. So they would be four times more likely to win than Phoenix. A possible but unlikely chance at victory.

Since this fantasy league is only played out in theory rather than on the court .. there are no upsets in an environment like this. You pick the team that is most likely to win the head-to-head matchup and that is Sacramento.

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I would say that this series is somewhat (loosely) comparable to recent Finals between Dallas and Miami.

Miami were the more talented team and they should have won the series but some things happened and the result swung the other way. Bosh struggled and LeBron was strangely passive.  Dallas took full advantage and gave a great team performance.

On paper, that was a series Miami should have won but some things happened and other things didn't happen. I would say the same is true of the Phoenix vs Sacramento matchup.

But like I said earlier, in this fantasy game, the game is played in theory rather than on the court, and, the Kings are the much more likely victor so they should get the vote.  

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Overall, I expect this series to be very competitive and hard fought (a long series, 6 or 7 games) but I think the Kings just have that extra gear that will win them the day in the end.

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In terms of the game plan and rotation, there are no major changes.

• Balanced attack offensively led by Manu Ginobili, Ben Gordon, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom. A lot of passers and ball movement with Kidd orchestrating the show.
• A defensive scheme based around our shot-blocking threat with one of A.Bynum or O.Asik staying on the court at all times to anchor the defense.
• Usual rotation -- three player backcourt with Manu, Kidd and B.Gordon. A two swing man rotation with Marvin and Pietrus. A four player big man rotation with Odom/Ilyasova and Bynum/Asik.

Things we do well vs Sacramento

• Manu Ginobili and Ben Gordon are players LeBron will struggle to defend because they are so good at running off of screens. LeBron isn't agile enough getting around screens to keep up with them. So our two best scorers can keep one of the league's best coolers off of them.
• I think matching up with Ben Gordon will be a problem when he and Manu are in the game together. The Kings PGs will struggle to defend B.Gordon.
• Andrew Bynum has an advantage against Tyson Chandler. More skilled offensive player and his bulk can cause Tyson some problems.
• Rick Adelman has an advantage over Lawrence Frank. He'll find ways to exploit him through the series.

Things where we don't matchup well

• A.Bynum struggles on pick and rolls. He doesn't show well and often stays back giving the attacker the advantage. LeBron is one of the most lethal pick and roll attackers in the league and he should be able to gain traction.
  This is the main reason why I think Sacramento wins the series. The teams that have beaten LeBron in the past have had much stronger PnR defenses and have been able to keep him outside of the paint because of it. I don't think we are capable of matching that.
• The Kings have the best pick and roll defense and the best transition defense in the league. Limits the opportunities for easy baskets + makes life difficult for Manu's pick and roll game (a main weapon for the Suns).
• Lamar Odom used to torch the Utah Jazz on the regular basis over the past few seasons. This was mainly due to Boozer's + Okur's complete lack of lateral quickness and inability to cover Odom off the bounce. Millsap, on the other hand, was a credible defender against Odom. And now he has an elite interior defender in T.Chandler and elite team defense (Kings) around him to help. That should be enough to make that matchup even for Sacramento.

In order to win the series, some combination of the following would need to happen:

(1) A.Bynum would have to out-play Tyson Chandler by a considerable margin.

(2) Getting Tyson Chandler into foul trouble would have a large detrimental effect on the Kings team.

Their backup centers are Boris Diaw and Nazr Mohammed. Diaw doesn't have the size to defend Bynum in the post and Nazr is obviously a huge downgrade defensively from T.Chandler. I forget the exact stats, but I think it was something like 10 points worse per 100 possessions defensively - the difference between having Tyson in the starting lineup in Charlotte vs Nazr with the exact same four players. A huge difference.

Tyson Chandler has struggled with foul trouble in the past. A frequent point of reference for Rick Carlisle during Dallas' run to the title this past season. Tyson did a great job of avoiding foul trouble in the finals but he did have some problems earlier in the tournament. Plus, he had huge problems a year prior vs Dwight Howard.

Whether A.Bynum is capable of getting Tyson into that type of foul trouble or not is unclear. He is never done so before in a playoff series but he's never been a focal point of the offense before either. A possibility but by no means a certainty. Can't depend on it.

(3) LeBron James suffers one of those strange bouts of non-assertiveness

(4) Odom has an advantage in the post against Millsap but he has rarely been a willing post up player in the past so I can't say for sure that he will do so here. Odom did have a lot of success in the post against another undersized PF (S.Marion) in the playoffs a few years ago when Phil Jackson made a point of attacking through the post. Rick Adelman could, maybe, get through to Odom here too.

(5) The usual poor or hot spells of jump-shooting and those type of things.

Defensive Strategy

KG is the Ray Lewis of our team. He always has guys in the right position. KG will defend Bosh. Haywood will be seeing more then half the Center time. His size and shot blocking will be needed for protecting the rim. People are worried about Jefferson. Big Al will always be playing with a good defensive big. When he plays Center KG will be in at PF and when he plays PF Haywood will be in at C. Whatever Big Al gives up on D he can get back on O against this team.

Thabo will shadow Joe for 19 minutes per game. Besides that Butler will be on him. Sometimes Pierce will guard him too when we have a Baron&Jamal backcourt with Baron playing on Wright. If Thabo is not in, in the final minutes, then Pierce will guard Joe Johnson. Pierce is capable of this and is a very underrated defender.

Utah will also have homecourt and an advantage on the boards in this series as all of Denver's players are not great rebounders.

KG - 10.9 RPG (playoffs) vs Bosh - 8.5 RPG (playoffs)
Big Al - 9.7 RPG (season) vs Nene - 7.6 RPG (season) 9 RPG (playoffs)
Pierce and Wright are pretty even

Utah is also nastier and more physical almost across the board which I believe will be an advantage in this series. We also have more leadership.

Since this fantasy league is only played out in theory rather than on the court .. there are no upsets in an environment like this. You pick the team that is most likely to win the head-to-head matchup and that is Sacramento.

You know, I actually disagree with you.  I think that if the lesser team comes in with a very clear strategy, and the better team doesn't have a plan to counter that, that there can in fact be upsets.

As for this matchup, I do think you're overrating the Kings a tiny bit, but they're obviously an excellent team and I agree that they'd win this series.