2011 CelticsBlog Draft Board

[indeedproceed]

Last trade:

Philly sends: robin Lopez and Gerald hendersen
PDX sends: Tiago Splitter and Josh childress

solid return for both clubs

Agree. Mgent wasn't sold at first, but he got a pretty good return as well. Tiago Splitter can play either the 4 or the 5, and that's insurance for Kenyon Martin, as well as a capable backup center.

Childress has expereince starting at the 2 or the 3, and he's pretty good insurance for the 5 or so games Wade and Iggy will likely miss.

I wasn't using Childress and I needed a legitimate proven defensive backup 5, and mgent needed a proven swingman. Honestly, he probably won it on a talent scale but a considerable margin, especially if Splitter takes a step forward next year.

I was with you until I read your justification. I thought you were trying to acquire Henderson, a high effort, slashing shooting guard with upside. Robin looked awful this year. I prefer Splitter's chances.

Synergy ranks him 460th in the NBA in points per play defense after he yielded a team-worst 1.08 ppp to go with 52.8 percent shooting.

Lopez was particularly bad in post-up situations, as opponents shot 59.3 percent against him, scored 55.6 percent of the time and averaged 1.07 ppp. He also struggled to defend isolation plays (1.09, 51.4 percent shooting, 339th) and spot-up shooters (1.1 ppp, 47.8 percent, 315th) presumably because he moved too slow closing out on the jumpers.

All this added up to Lopez recording a team-worst minus 8.09 adjusted plus/minus, in a season that was shockingly bad in all aspects aside from his improved mid-range jumper (which is not exactly why they drafted him).

“There’s certain expectations that you have for players, and you’ve got to be able to meet those expectations,” Gentry said. “We want him to be a better player offensively, defensively, and that’s what our expectations are.

Not buying it, at all. Lopez was injured for a long time, and came back too early. I'd love to see those numbers from 09/10. Synergy Sports is really useful if the data backs up your expectations, but its far from bulletproof. In fact, its not even close.

Robin Lopez proved his worth next to Amar'e a long time ago. That whole Phoenix team was a trainwreck last year, and if it wasn't for the somehow still-transcendental Steve Nash, they would've been the worst team in the league.

Lopez is a very good defender, a mediocre rebounder, and a limited offense player. And that, I'm totally cool with.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Wait, what? The "not buying it" counter argument is sort of blowing my mind. (Would that have worked for KG at center?) Lopez had an objectively terrible season. So tell me why he's going to make strides next season. He's been in the league for three seasons, so he couldn't have proven too much a "long time ago." He even missed the Suns first two playoff series during their 2009-10 Western Conference Finals run.

Also I don't know if he even qualifies as a mediocre rebounder.

He ranked 101st in rebound rate in 2010-11 among players averaging more than six minutes a game grabbbing 12.6% of the all available rebounds. He ranked 132nd in defensive rebound rate (15.6%).

In 2009-10 he ranked 72nd (14.2%) and 121st in defensive rebounding (15.6%). As a rookie he ranked 118th (11.2%) and 190th in defensive rebounding (12.1%).

[mgent]

I agree with IP, that Suns team without Nash, Jrich, or Hedo would have won like 10 games.  Look at the defenders Lopez had to work with Vince Carter, Channing Frye, Aaron Brooks, Nash, and Hakim Warrick.

[Fafnir]

I like Splitter more than Lopez I think, but he's a quality backup C. In fact given that he's likely the third string C (Bogut/Amar'e are 1st/2nd) I think he's better that most in that role. The injury risk with him is worrisome though.

He's a poor rebounder for a C anyway you slice it, though Splitter wasn't gangbusters either.

[Roy H.]

Lopez had an objectively terrible season. So tell me why he's going to make strides next season.

I think IP's point is that Lopez regressed from his sophomore season due to injury.  The reason to expect him to make strides next year is that he's presumably going to be healthier.

In 2010, Lopez put up 8/5 on 58% shooting in 19 minutes per game.  (On a per-36 basis, that's an extremely respectable 16/9).  He played solid, tough defense that year, despite not getting much help from teammates. 

As a backup center, that's pretty good (and certainly not objectively terrible).  Last year, he wasn't very good, but he was banged up, and again, got no help on his front line.  Lopez isn't a huge impact player, but I think he can be a solid member of any team's rotation.

[KCattheStripe]

Lopez had an objectively terrible season. So tell me why he's going to make strides next season.

In 2010, Lopez put up 8/5 on 58% shooting in 19 minutes per game.  (On a per-36 basis, that's an extremely respectable 16/9).  He played solid, tough defense that year, despite not getting much help from teammates. 

Per 36 stats drive me nuts, if a guy was good enough to produce at that level for over 36 minutes for a full season, he'd be doing it.

[Roy H.]

Lopez had an objectively terrible season. So tell me why he's going to make strides next season.

In 2010, Lopez put up 8/5 on 58% shooting in 19 minutes per game.  (On a per-36 basis, that's an extremely respectable 16/9).  He played solid, tough defense that year, despite not getting much help from teammates. 

Per 36 stats drive me nuts, if a guy was good enough to produce at that level for over 36 minutes for a full season, he'd be doing it.

It's just a quick and dirty method for people to conceptualize how productive a guy was in shortened minutes.  Also, in terms of "not being good enough", the Suns were 9-3 in games Lopez played 27+ minutes, and he averaged 16.4 points / 7.9 rebounds in those games.  He's shown that he can put up very good production when given heavy minutes.

I wouldn't want Lopez as my starter, but as a backup I think he's a good option.

[Who]

I'm not sure what to make of R.Lopez. He had a terrible season last year and terrible rookie campaign. In between, he had a respectable season and looked to be a solid defender in the making.

I have no idea what to expect from him.

[Fafnir]

I have no idea what to expect from him.

Yeah in that I find him similar to Splitter, a big unknown if they'll live up to their potential.

I'm hopeful that if he can regain health he can recapture his sophmore form.

[Kane3387]

My presser is due tomorrow but I might not have time to access a computer and place it on there. I was hoping to create my presser, finish it, and post it on there today. Any chance I can do that and if so when? I am in the Northwest Division - Utah.

Thanks.

[indeedproceed]

My presser is due tomorrow but I might not have time to access a computer and place it on there. I was hoping to create my presser, finish it, and post it on there today. Any chance I can do that and if so when? I am in the Northwest Division - Utah.

Thanks.

You can PM me your press release, or you can just post it here andedit the post. Either way is fine.

[indeedproceed]

Also Kane, once you're done, say so, and I'll move your post where ppl can't see it until tonight.

[The Walker Wiggle]

I agree with IP, that Suns team without Nash, Jrich, or Hedo would have won like 10 games.  Look at the defenders Lopez had to work with Vince Carter, Channing Frye, Aaron Brooks, Nash, and Hakim Warrick.

Except he posted the team's worst adjusted plus/minus. The already poor Suns' defense was worse when Lopez was on the floor versus even fringe starters Marcin Gortat or Channing Frye - and Frye isn't lauded for his defense.

Advanced metrics aren't the only measure, but if you can't judge Lopez by his team's defense, and you can't judge him by his individual performance broken down play by play, or by his performance relative to his teammates, how can you judge him? How about the fact that by season's end his coach had given most of his minutes to other players?

Lopez had one good half season stint (the Suns got to the Western Conference Finals without him) in a three year career and has otherwise been a poor defender.

That said, he is Portland's third big man behind Stoudemire and Bogut, he just happens to be one of the poorer third bigs.

And I do like Gerald Henderson's prospects.

[The Walker Wiggle]

I'm now taking nominations for an unofficial "best player to go undrafted" award.

Willie Green?

[Donoghus]

I'm now taking nominations for an unofficial "best player to go undrafted" award.

Willie Green?

He didn't get much love last year when I had him.