Rondo/Paul trade idea

[Vermont Green]

I'm so grateful to see this.  We had to go several days without a bad Rondo trade idea, and it was excruciating.  I hope we are back on track.

  Yep, it's going to be a long lockout...

Just wait until people really start getting loopy.  At least this one has us getting an All-Star in return. 

I think we are about 2 months away from seeing deals that are WAY out there.

  I agree (shudder).

I don’t get the holier than thou cynicism?  I think this is very reasonable blog fodder started by gpap.  If I was Danny, and there is a chance to get Chris Paul (as there just may be), I would be throwing things like this out to NO.

I don't know what combination might ultimately do it but if you start with Rondo, Green, and the Clipper's Pick, that is a pretty good start.  In my view, Chris is a significant upgrade over Rondo.  He can do for us what Rose did for a very weak team in Chicago and I don't care if it limits our already slim chance at getting Dwight Howard.

[BballTim]

I'm so grateful to see this.  We had to go several days without a bad Rondo trade idea, and it was excruciating.  I hope we are back on track.

  Yep, it's going to be a long lockout...

Just wait until people really start getting loopy.  At least this one has us getting an All-Star in return. 

I think we are about 2 months away from seeing deals that are WAY out there.

  I agree (shudder).

I don’t get the holier than thou cynicism?  I think this is very reasonable blog fodder started by gpap.  If I was Danny, and there is a chance to get Chris Paul (as there just may be), I would be throwing things like this out to NO.

I don't know what combination might ultimately do it but if you start with Rondo, Green, and the Clipper's Pick, that is a pretty good start.  In my view, Chris is a significant upgrade over Rondo.  He can do for us what Rose did for a very weak team in Chicago and I don't care if it limits our already slim chance at getting Dwight Howard.

   Rose led a very weak team in Chicago to, what, an 8th seed? He led a much improved Bulls team to a top seed, but don't underestimate his teammates.

[slamtheking]

I'm so grateful to see this.  We had to go several days without a bad Rondo trade idea, and it was excruciating.  I hope we are back on track.

  Yep, it's going to be a long lockout...

Just wait until people really start getting loopy.  At least this one has us getting an All-Star in return. 

I think we are about 2 months away from seeing deals that are WAY out there.

  I agree (shudder).

I don’t get the holier than thou cynicism?  I think this is very reasonable blog fodder started by gpap.  If I was Danny, and there is a chance to get Chris Paul (as there just may be), I would be throwing things like this out to NO.

I don't know what combination might ultimately do it but if you start with Rondo, Green, and the Clipper's Pick, that is a pretty good start.  In my view, Chris is a significant upgrade over Rondo.  He can do for us what Rose did for a very weak team in Chicago and I don't care if it limits our already slim chance at getting Dwight Howard.

I think your statement about how much of an upgrade Paul is over Rondo is at the core of the debate. 
Personally, I don't think it's enough of an upgrade to justify also trading our starting SG, a starting-quality SF/PF and our starting center while only getting a somewhat-healthier Center in return that's on a bad contract.  Throw in the fact that Rondo is on a much cheaper deal than Paul.  Also consider Paul's unproven-health at this point and I don't see why Danny should consider this a time to be 'throwing' ideas at NO in a desperation attempt to get Chris Paul.

[Moranis]

I just can't think why you trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.  I mean, if Danny doesn't have faith in Rondo, he ought to go for it, but I think Rondo is a player who has just begun to reach his potential, and looks pretty stellar.  Ainge should take him off the trading block.

It's called a jumpshot.

All GM's have 'faith' in their stars that they lock up longterm, but if a better player becomes obtainable, you have to pull the trigger for the betterment of the team.

Chris Paul makes this C's team better than Rondo.

Who plays better defense? That matters too. So does rebounds.

When healthy Chris Paul is every bit the defender Rajon Rondo is (higher ST% and higher totals).  Rondo has a 1% better rebound rate in his career then Paul does.  Paul is 8.6% better in AST%.  Paul is significantly better at hanging onto the ball with a TOV% almost 6% better.  Paul is a significantly better shooter and is just 1 year older.

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close. 

[BballTim]

I just can't think why you trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.  I mean, if Danny doesn't have faith in Rondo, he ought to go for it, but I think Rondo is a player who has just begun to reach his potential, and looks pretty stellar.  Ainge should take him off the trading block.

It's called a jumpshot.

All GM's have 'faith' in their stars that they lock up longterm, but if a better player becomes obtainable, you have to pull the trigger for the betterment of the team.

Chris Paul makes this C's team better than Rondo.

Who plays better defense? That matters too. So does rebounds.

When healthy Chris Paul is every bit the defender Rajon Rondo is (higher ST% and higher totals).  Rondo has a 1% better rebound rate in his career then Paul does.  Paul is 8.6% better in AST%.  Paul is significantly better at hanging onto the ball with a TOV% almost 6% better.  Paul is a significantly better shooter and is just 1 year older.

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close. 

  Rondo's a better defender and rebounder. There's more to defense than steals. Paul is a better shooter and is more careful with the ball. When Paul and Rondo are both healthy Paul is flat out better, but that's Paul with a fully healthy knee, which isn't a given. If you look at Rondo's play last season before he started with the injuries, CP3 of 08-09 (23/6/11, PER of 30) was flat out better. CP3 of 10-11 (16/4/10, PER of 23.7) isn't that much (if any) better than Rondo of Nov/Dec. Will CP3 return to form? Not a given. Will Rondo get back to that pre-injury level? Not a given, but not unlikely. Will CP3 be the better player next year? He may be better, or it may be fairly close.

[Moranis]

I just can't think why you trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.  I mean, if Danny doesn't have faith in Rondo, he ought to go for it, but I think Rondo is a player who has just begun to reach his potential, and looks pretty stellar.  Ainge should take him off the trading block.

It's called a jumpshot.

All GM's have 'faith' in their stars that they lock up longterm, but if a better player becomes obtainable, you have to pull the trigger for the betterment of the team.

Chris Paul makes this C's team better than Rondo.

Who plays better defense? That matters too. So does rebounds.

When healthy Chris Paul is every bit the defender Rajon Rondo is (higher ST% and higher totals).  Rondo has a 1% better rebound rate in his career then Paul does.  Paul is 8.6% better in AST%.  Paul is significantly better at hanging onto the ball with a TOV% almost 6% better.  Paul is a significantly better shooter and is just 1 year older.

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close. 

  Rondo's a better defender and rebounder. There's more to defense than steals. Paul is a better shooter and is more careful with the ball. When Paul and Rondo are both healthy Paul is flat out better, but that's Paul with a fully healthy knee, which isn't a given. If you look at Rondo's play last season before he started with the injuries, CP3 of 08-09 (23/6/11, PER of 30) was flat out better. CP3 of 10-11 (16/4/10, PER of 23.7) isn't that much (if any) better than Rondo of Nov/Dec. Will CP3 return to form? Not a given. Will Rondo get back to that pre-injury level? Not a given, but not unlikely. Will CP3 be the better player next year? He may be better, or it may be fairly close.

16/4/10 with a PER of 23.7 is way better then Rondo even in Dec/Jan.

And I'm well aware there is more to defense then steals, but Paul has been first or second team all defense 3 of the last 4 years (two years ago he was hurt and didn't make the squad).  Paul isn't Iverson who just sits in passing lanes getting steals but otherwise can't guard a chair.  Paul is a superb defender. 

Paul is just better then Rondo and it isn't close even one legged Paul from last year was still better then Rondo.  I mean Paul gets more assists, scores more points on far better shooting, plays more minutes, has the ball in his hand far more often, and yet commits far less turnovers then Rondo.  Paul has been above 2.5 turnovers 1 time in his entire career.  Rondo has been above each of the last three seasons (and per 36 minutes would be four to Paul's one).

It isn't debatable and I don't know why people continue to argue this point.  It is just silly.  I can understand why people would have concerns about Paul's knee (though he played way more games then Rondo did last year and didn't end the year injured), and can certainly understand the concern that Paul might leave at the end of the year, but from a purely basketball standpoint it is a no brainer.

[action781]

I just can't think why you trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.  I mean, if Danny doesn't have faith in Rondo, he ought to go for it, but I think Rondo is a player who has just begun to reach his potential, and looks pretty stellar.  Ainge should take him off the trading block.

It's called a jumpshot.

All GM's have 'faith' in their stars that they lock up longterm, but if a better player becomes obtainable, you have to pull the trigger for the betterment of the team.

Chris Paul makes this C's team better than Rondo.

Who plays better defense? That matters too. So does rebounds.

When healthy Chris Paul is every bit the defender Rajon Rondo is (higher ST% and higher totals).  Rondo has a 1% better rebound rate in his career then Paul does.  Paul is 8.6% better in AST%.  Paul is significantly better at hanging onto the ball with a TOV% almost 6% better.  Paul is a significantly better shooter and is just 1 year older.

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close. 

  Rondo's a better defender and rebounder. There's more to defense than steals.

I absolutely agree that there's more to defense than steals.  So please tell me, what exactly does Rondo bring more to the table (than steals) that Chris Paul doesn't?  In my opinion, nothing.  Rondo is actually the guy that gambles for steals or gets beat in my opinion.  I think Chris Paul is great at sliding his feet and staying in front of guys AND he steals the ball too.

We all have seen Rondo play a ton, we know what kind of a player he is.  I've seen Chris Paul play a ton too.  Whoever doesn't agree with:

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close.

hasn't seen Chris Paul play enough.  I really think should be plainly obvious to people, so to avoid this being a "because I said so" argument, look at their head-to-head comparison:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=rondora01&p2=paulch01

In 8 matchups, Rondo has statistically outplayed Chris Paul once definitely (3/23/08 even though NOH beat the better '08 celtics that game) and again on 3/19/11.  The other 6 times, Chris Paul has absolutely outplayed Rondo.

Of all active NBA players, Chris Paul is #1 in win shares per 48 minutes.  Number 2 - Lebron.  3 - Duncan.  4 - Ginobili.  5 - Dirk.  6 - Shaq, etc. 7 - Yao, 8 - Wade, 9 - KG, 10 - Dwight Howard, 11 - Kobe, etc.  Rondo isn't in the top 50.  Chris Paul can lead teams to win and as much as I genuinely love Rondo (I do!), he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as those guys above.

If you don't think Paul is better than Rondo, then I honestly think you should make an attempt to watch CP3 play more often when NBA basketball resumes.  He's a very impressive player and you've obviously been missing out.  Swap Chris Paul for Rondo and that Hornets team would have been swept by the Lakers undoubtedly in the first round of the playoffs this past season.  Swept.

[BballTim]

I just can't think why you trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.  I mean, if Danny doesn't have faith in Rondo, he ought to go for it, but I think Rondo is a player who has just begun to reach his potential, and looks pretty stellar.  Ainge should take him off the trading block.

It's called a jumpshot.

All GM's have 'faith' in their stars that they lock up longterm, but if a better player becomes obtainable, you have to pull the trigger for the betterment of the team.

Chris Paul makes this C's team better than Rondo.

Who plays better defense? That matters too. So does rebounds.

When healthy Chris Paul is every bit the defender Rajon Rondo is (higher ST% and higher totals).  Rondo has a 1% better rebound rate in his career then Paul does.  Paul is 8.6% better in AST%.  Paul is significantly better at hanging onto the ball with a TOV% almost 6% better.  Paul is a significantly better shooter and is just 1 year older.

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close. 

  Rondo's a better defender and rebounder. There's more to defense than steals. Paul is a better shooter and is more careful with the ball. When Paul and Rondo are both healthy Paul is flat out better, but that's Paul with a fully healthy knee, which isn't a given. If you look at Rondo's play last season before he started with the injuries, CP3 of 08-09 (23/6/11, PER of 30) was flat out better. CP3 of 10-11 (16/4/10, PER of 23.7) isn't that much (if any) better than Rondo of Nov/Dec. Will CP3 return to form? Not a given. Will Rondo get back to that pre-injury level? Not a given, but not unlikely. Will CP3 be the better player next year? He may be better, or it may be fairly close.

16/4/10 with a PER of 23.7 is way better then Rondo even in Dec/Jan.

  Strongly disagree with this.

And I'm well aware there is more to defense then steals, but Paul has been first or second team all defense 3 of the last 4 years (two years ago he was hurt and didn't make the squad).  Paul isn't Iverson who just sits in passing lanes getting steals but otherwise can't guard a chair.  Paul is a superb defender. 

  And who's been first team the last few years? Sure, he's better than AI, but he seems to be #2 on the list...

Paul is just better then Rondo and it isn't close even one legged Paul from last year was still better then Rondo.  I mean Paul gets more assists, scores more points on far better shooting, plays more minutes, has the ball in his hand far more often, and yet commits far less turnovers then Rondo.  Paul has been above 2.5 turnovers 1 time in his entire career.  Rondo has been above each of the last three seasons (and per 36 minutes would be four to Paul's one).

  Paul's more careful with the ball although the difference is much more pronounced in the regular season than it is in the playoffs, where CP3 has more turnovers per game than Rondo. Rondo was also getting more minutes a game and more assists a game than CP3, so that's out the window as well.

It isn't debatable and I don't know why people continue to argue this point.  It is just silly.  I can understand why people would have concerns about Paul's knee (though he played way more games then Rondo did last year and didn't end the year injured), and can certainly understand the concern that Paul might leave at the end of the year, but from a purely basketball standpoint it is a no brainer.

  Again, CP3 is probably a little better, but the reason you can't see the argument is because you can't figure out that Rondo's contributions generally go well beyond his individual statistics.

[BballTim]

I just can't think why you trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.  I mean, if Danny doesn't have faith in Rondo, he ought to go for it, but I think Rondo is a player who has just begun to reach his potential, and looks pretty stellar.  Ainge should take him off the trading block.

It's called a jumpshot.

All GM's have 'faith' in their stars that they lock up longterm, but if a better player becomes obtainable, you have to pull the trigger for the betterment of the team.

Chris Paul makes this C's team better than Rondo.

Who plays better defense? That matters too. So does rebounds.

When healthy Chris Paul is every bit the defender Rajon Rondo is (higher ST% and higher totals).  Rondo has a 1% better rebound rate in his career then Paul does.  Paul is 8.6% better in AST%.  Paul is significantly better at hanging onto the ball with a TOV% almost 6% better.  Paul is a significantly better shooter and is just 1 year older.

Chris Paul is just flat out better then Rajon Rondo and when both are healthy it isn't close. 

  Rondo's a better defender and rebounder. There's more to defense than steals.

I absolutely agree that there's more to defense than steals.  So please tell me, what exactly does Rondo bring more to the table (than steals) that Chris Paul doesn't?  In my opinion, nothing.  Rondo is actually the guy that gambles for steals or gets beat in my opinion.  I think Chris Paul is great at sliding his feet and staying in front of guys AND he steals the ball too.

We all have seen Rondo play a ton, we know what kind of a player he is.  I've seen Chris Paul play a ton too. 

  I'd say Rondo's better at ball denial, help defense and pressuring the ball for starters. CP3's opponents seem to shoot a higher fg%, get more rebounds, more assists and commit fewer turnovers than Rondo's opponents. And it seems like nba coaches and gms agree with me as well.

[action781]

  I'd say Rondo's better at ball denial, help defense and pressuring the ball for starters. CP3's opponents seem to shoot a higher fg%, get more rebounds, more assists and commit fewer turnovers than Rondo's opponents. And it seems like nba coaches and gms agree with me as well.

Seem to?  Any stats to back that up?

As for rebounds, CP3 has actually outrebounded Rondo in their 8 career matchups.  So, the "better rebounder" as you claim has allowed the inferior rebounder to outrebound him.  And now you claim that CP3 actually allows his opponent to get more rebounds than Rondo?  So, your "seeming" seems a little off to me.

As for the intangible aspects of their defense, I will say that Rondo is excellent at ball denial.  He's very good at help defense.  And he's very good, if not excellent, at pressuring the ball.  I don't particularly picture CP3 denying the ball much.  As a result, he also doesn't get blown by as much as rondo does.  CP3 is a good help defender for the PG spot also.  CP is also excellent at pressuring the ball.  CP is also great at staying in front of point guards, which I don't feel like is a particular strength of Rondo and why I find CP to be a better overall defender.

[kozlodoev]

Seem to?  Any stats to back that up?

Opponents eFG vs. Paul: .501
Opponents eFG vs. Rondo: .450

Any other questions?

Paul is simply not a defensive game-changer. You gotta live with the objective reality.

[Moranis]

And I'm well aware there is more to defense then steals, but Paul has been first or second team all defense 3 of the last 4 years (two years ago he was hurt and didn't make the squad).  Paul isn't Iverson who just sits in passing lanes getting steals but otherwise can't guard a chair.  Paul is a superb defender. 

  And who's been first team the last few years? Sure, he's better than AI, but he seems to be #2 on the list...

Rondo, of course before Paul was injured he was first team and Rondo was second team.  Paul played significantly better towards the end of last year, which makes sense since his knee injury is usually 12 months+ injury to recover from. 

Paul is just better then Rondo and it isn't close even one legged Paul from last year was still better then Rondo.  I mean Paul gets more assists, scores more points on far better shooting, plays more minutes, has the ball in his hand far more often, and yet commits far less turnovers then Rondo.  Paul has been above 2.5 turnovers 1 time in his entire career.  Rondo has been above each of the last three seasons (and per 36 minutes would be four to Paul's one).

  Paul's more careful with the ball although the difference is much more pronounced in the regular season than it is in the playoffs, where CP3 has more turnovers per game than Rondo. Rondo was also getting more minutes a game and more assists a game than CP3, so that's out the window as well.

Except that TOV% Rondo is worse then Paul even in the playoffs, which means he isn't any better a ball handler, Paul just increases his usage more then Rondo does in the playoffs, which given Paul is option #1 and Rondo is option #5 on offense makes sense.

And I'm not sure what site you are looking at for your stats, but Paul plays more minutes and has more assists then Rondo in the playoffs, both last year and their careers.  And that is totals and AST%.  In fact Chris Paul has the highest career AST% in playoff history at 53.16 (Stockton is second at 47.79 - Rondo is 8th at 39.75).  Paul is second only to Magic in assists per game in the playoffs (paul is at 11.13, Magic 12.35 - Rondo is 11th at 8.47).  Only Magic, Paul, and Stockton are in double digits. 

It isn't debatable and I don't know why people continue to argue this point.  It is just silly.  I can understand why people would have concerns about Paul's knee (though he played way more games then Rondo did last year and didn't end the year injured), and can certainly understand the concern that Paul might leave at the end of the year, but from a purely basketball standpoint it is a no brainer.

Again, CP3 is probably a little better, but the reason you can't see the argument is because you can't figure out that Rondo's contributions generally go well beyond his individual statistics.

And Paul's don't.  He carries his team because he has to and is still more efficient as the #1 option and the only guy opposing teams pay attention to.  Switch Paul and Rondo and the difference will be magnified significantly in the stat lines.  With Chris Paul, the Celtics would actually be a match for the Heat next year.

[action781]

Seem to?  Any stats to back that up?

Opponents eFG vs. Paul: .501
Opponents eFG vs. Rondo: .450

Any other questions?

Paul is simply not a defensive game-changer. You gotta live with the objective reality.

That is phenomenal; I'm impressed.  Don't get me wrong, objectivity is obvious the way I try to look at things.  It is difficult to measure defense objectively though, that's why I asked for the stats, because I don't know where to find ones like that and the word "seems" is everything but objective.  Could you provide that link for me for future reference?  Thanks

[BballTim]

  I'd say Rondo's better at ball denial, help defense and pressuring the ball for starters. CP3's opponents seem to shoot a higher fg%, get more rebounds, more assists and commit fewer turnovers than Rondo's opponents. And it seems like nba coaches and gms agree with me as well.

Seem to?  Any stats to back that up?

As for rebounds, CP3 has actually outrebounded Rondo in their 8 career matchups.  So, the "better rebounder" as you claim has allowed the inferior rebounder to outrebound him.  And now you claim that CP3 actually allows his opponent to get more rebounds than Rondo?  So, your "seeming" seems a little off to me.

As for the intangible aspects of their defense, I will say that Rondo is excellent at ball denial.  He's very good at help defense.  And he's very good, if not excellent, at pressuring the ball.  I don't particularly picture CP3 denying the ball much.  As a result, he also doesn't get blown by as much as rondo does.  CP3 is a good help defender for the PG spot also.  CP is also excellent at pressuring the ball.  CP is also great at staying in front of point guards, which I don't feel like is a particular strength of Rondo and why I find CP to be a better overall defender.

  Check out 82games.com. Rondo's a better rebounder during the regular season and quite a bit better in the playoffs. His playoff rebounding rate is closer to Magic's than it is to CP3's.

[paulcowens]

Rondo for Paul is really the only Rondo trade idea at all worth discussing, and it is itself silly.  At best, you most likely have a lateral move, if you make that trade, and since you don't know how team chemistry will work, that's not a good move to make.  At worst, you are giving a player who is getting better every year for a player who may be better right now, but seems to have peaked.  We have a pretty good idea how good Paul can be, and that's awfully good, but we don't even know yet what Rondo can be.

So this is the most reasonable trade to discuss involving Rondo, and it's basically silly.  He should be untouchable.  Period.