Trade Idea: Bogut for Josh Smith

[Who]

I'd prefer to take a chance on D.Williams (#2 pick) over J.Smith if I were Milwaukee.

[Who]

(1) Bogut and Gooden to Phily for Iggy, Lou Williams and their first round pick

(2) Bogut to GSW for Monta Ellis

[snively]

Milwaukee is a terrible offensive team; if they trade the heart of their defense, they'll need a much better offensive player than Josh Smith. 

[StartOrien]

Milwaukee is a terrible offensive team; if they trade the heart of their defense, they'll need a much better offensive player than Josh Smith.  

Part of the reason for my proposal would be in effort for Milwaukee to get rid of Maggette or Salmons' contract. Though, as someone point out the Drew Gooden one might even be worse

[snively]

Milwaukee is a terrible offensive team; if they trade the heart of their defense, they'll need a much better offensive player than Josh Smith. 

Part of the recent for my proposal would be in effort for Milwaukee to get rid of Maggette or Salmons' contract. Though, as someone point out the Drew Gooden one might even be worse

If I'm the Bucks, I have no interest in downgrading defensively without upgrading offensively just to unload one of the 3 bad contracts on my roster. 

[StartOrien]

Milwaukee is a terrible offensive team; if they trade the heart of their defense, they'll need a much better offensive player than Josh Smith. 

Part of the recent for my proposal would be in effort for Milwaukee to get rid of Maggette or Salmons' contract. Though, as someone point out the Drew Gooden one might even be worse

If I'm the Bucks, I have no interest in downgrading defensively without upgrading offensively just to unload one of the 3 bad contracts on my roster. 

I think at some point you have to decide to blow it up, and if I'm the Bucks I might have some concerns about not being able to get value w/ Bogut if he goes through another injury.

They're not just tied up financially, but tied up for quite some time.

[Who]

I don't think there is much to gain for Milwaukee by blowing up the roster.

They are already in the lottery. They have two good pieces in B.Jennings and A.Bogut plus a bunch of quality role players like Delfino, Mbah a Moute and Ilyasova. There is a lot to work with there.

They just need to move one or two contracts. Re-structure their cap a bit. There is a foundation still there that they can work with. They don't need to abandon everything.

In the meantime, add another lottery pick or two + search for cheap prospects in free agency. Prepare for the day when they have some financial wiggle room. At that point, they'll have a nice talent base to add to.

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I'd be surprised if they couldn't move Maggette at some point. He only has two more years on his contract. It is not that inhibitive. Salmons and Gooden are larger issues.

They probably won't be able to get rid of Salmons for some time.

D.Gooden, possibly, after all he has been traded numerous times before. There is a chance that someone steps up and takes that contract on over the next two years. They'll be stuck with him for the time being but I think they can trade him before his contract expires and likely before he becomes an expiring contract.

They should also look into trading B.Jennings if he fails to show significant improvement next season.

[action781]

I think at some point you have to decide to blow it up, and if I'm the Bucks I might have some concerns about not being able to get value w/ Bogut if he goes through another injury.

They're not just tied up financially, but tied up for quite some time.

I agree.  That financial situation is really ugly.

Who, I have two problems with your plan.  One, you are preparing for a day with financial wiggle room that is about 3 years from now.  Considering Bogut's injury history I think it's a dangerous roll of the dice to expect him healthy at that time.  Also, he will be 30 years of age at that time which means he will then be on the down slope of his career that injuries have already taken a toll on.

Two, what incentive do free agents have to sign in Milwaukee other than money?  I can't imagine that Jennings, two young mid-late lottery picks, and Bogut is going to be that stunning of a cast to get any superstar to come to Milwaukee, Wisconsin at a discount.  Preparing for that day of financial freedom, IMO, is preparing to overpay somebody and get right back in the same mess.

I think they need to build through high draft picks.  They tried with Bogut and it doesn't quite appear to be working out.  I think if they can get good value (draft picks or young players) for Bogut now, take it.  Then losing Bogut will also drive their win total down giving them more good picks to build through in the upcoming years.  It's pretty clear it's a roll of the dice to keep Bogut because they aren't winning any titles now and if he gets injured again, they might suddenly lose a lot of value in what is presently a pretty solid asset.

[Who]

Milwaukee have an opportunity to build a Detroit Pistons (2004) like team around Andrew Bogut.

They can achieve that with some wise draft picks, trades and free agency acquisitions.

They won't be able to convince any top free agents like Amare Stoudemire or LeBron James to sign in Milwaukee. They have to find another way to win and this is a legitimate option for them pursue given Bogut's skill-set and the foundation he creates for them defensively.

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Obviously, if Bogut's health is so bad that is not a possibility, then trade him.

But I doubt that is the case given his performance last season + the possibility of further improvements to his wrist after a summer's strengthening + correct me if I am wrong, but the only reoccurring injury he has is migraine headaches? Right?

That doesn't seem like a reason to trade him (health wise) unless Milwaukee knows of some undisclosed health concern. 

[Chris]

Milwaukee have an opportunity to build a Detroit Pistons (2004) like team around Andrew Bogut. That is what they should be pursuing.

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Obviously, if Bogut's health is so bad that is not a possibility, then trade him.

But I doubt that is the case given his performance last season + the possibility of further improvements to his wrist after a summer's strengthening + correct me if I am wrong, but the only reoccurring injury he has is migraine headaches? Right?

That doesn't seem like a reason to trade him (health wise) unless Milwaukee knows of some undisclosed health concern. 

I thought he also has a bad shoulder issue.  Maybe I am confusing it with his wrist, but I thought he said at the beginning of last season that he would not be 100% all season due to his shoulder.

Anyways, I agree.  If he is not a huge concern, then they need to build around him.  But, I am going under the assumption that he is majorly damaged goods, and if they don't trade him now, they will be looking at a Brandon Roy situation.

[StartOrien]

Milwaukee have an opportunity to build a Detroit Pistons (2004) like team around Andrew Bogut.

They can achieve that with some wise draft picks, trades and free agency acquisitions.

They won't be able to convince any top free agents like Amare Stoudemire or LeBron James to sign in Milwaukee. They have to find another way to win and this is a legitimate option for them pursue given Bogut's skill-set and the foundation he creates for them defensively.

But they need to have some financial wiggle room to acquire their version of Rasheed Wallace, which they won't. And the talent differential between where Detroit was and where Milwaukee currently is at is pretty significant.

It would be nice for this team to be able to try to build through Bogut and Jennings, but I think they're too tied up to be able to afford that luxury.

[Moranis]

which is why Atlanta does not make this move.

EDIT: And frankly Josh Smith is younger, healthier, and a much better all around player.  He doesn't have the size of Bogut obviously, but Horford can't guard most PF's so if the Hawks went with a Horford/Bogut front line, they would get killed by most any team with quickness in the 4/5.  I mean what are the Hawks going to do against L.A., Dallas, Boston, Orlando, etc.  Smith's quickness with Horford's power is a great combination for them and with an actual coach correctly utilizing them, they made the second round and gave the Bulls a real battle.  I think they would trade Smith, but not for someone like Bogut.

I'm a big fan of J-Smoothe's game, but if you're 'turning injuries off' I think Bogut is far superior. 

By far you mean a slightly better shooter, a moderately better rebounder, but a worse defender, a worse shot blocker, a worse scorer, a worse passer, a worse steal generator, not nearly as versatile or athletic, etc.

Josh Smith is being greatly under sold in this thread.  I mean which career stat line would you prefer

12.7p/9.4r/2.3a/1.6b/.7s/2t/3.3f on 54 TS%, 52.5 eFG% with a PER of 17

or

14.6p/7.7r/3a/2.2b/1.6s/2.5t/2.9f on 52.2 TS%, 48 eFG% with a PER of 18.1

[StartOrien]

By far you mean a slightly better shooter, a moderately better rebounder, but a worse defender, a worse shot blocker, a worse scorer, a worse passer, a worse steal generator, not nearly as versatile or athletic, etc.

No, because than my statement would be a contradiction. Why would I say that the superior player is inferior in most categories that determine how good a basketball player is?

[StartOrien]

By far you mean a slightly better shooter, a moderately better rebounder, but a worse defender, a worse shot blocker, a worse scorer, a worse passer, a worse steal generator, not nearly as versatile or athletic, etc.

No, because than my statement would be a contradiction. Why would I say that the superior player is inferior in most categories that determine how good a basketball player is?

Sorry, just hated the wording you had there.

In my opinion, Bogut - when healthy - is a much better defensive player. He also has a strong post game, and his rebounding and field goal percentage numbers are not 'slightly' better they're a lot better than Smith's. That is a very valuable player.

Josh Smith is an excellent player, but at the same time he's still the undersized power forward whose jump shot and decision making is so poor that his home crowd audibly groans when he's taking shots from the outside. I really, really enjoy watching him play, but in my opinion he's the type of guy whose skill set will never let him play a role on a true contender.

[Moranis]

By far you mean a slightly better shooter, a moderately better rebounder, but a worse defender, a worse shot blocker, a worse scorer, a worse passer, a worse steal generator, not nearly as versatile or athletic, etc.

No, because than my statement would be a contradiction. Why would I say that the superior player is inferior in most categories that determine how good a basketball player is?

Sorry, just hated the wording you had there.

In my opinion, Bogut - when healthy - is a much better defensive player. He also has a strong post game, and his rebounding and field goal percentage numbers are not 'slightly' better they're a lot better than Smith's. That is a very valuable player.

Josh Smith is an excellent player, but at the same time he's still the undersized power forward whose jump shot and decision making is so poor that his home crowd audibly groans when he's taking shots from the outside. I really, really enjoy watching him play, but in my opinion he's the type of guy whose skill set will never let him play a role on a true contender.

Bogut is 4% better from 2PT range, which given he only plays inside is not surprising.  Centers are supposed to have higher FG% then PF's.  Smith is 10% better from the line.  I will give you Smith shoots too many 3 pointers given his awful percentage, but Bogut really isn't a much better shooter if at all (aside from dunks and lay ups, which he does well). 

Bogut has a 3.2% better rebound rate, again center vs. PF, so it isn't really that much better.  Bogut also plays next to crappy rebounders while Smith has Horford taking some his boards. 

Smith is a better shot blocker and a much better stealer over their careers.  I know there is more to defense then that, but Smith is much more versatile defender able to guard every PF and a lot of centers and SF's (especially in short bursts).  Bogut is not a great help defender and can't even effectively guard half the centers in the league because he lacks the lateral quickness.  He does fine against guys like Bynum, Kaman, Camby, Perkins, etc. but really struggles against the quicker guys like Horford, Howard, Chandler, etc.