Chad Ford's latest mock - 5.0 ...Celtics Take Jeremy Tyler

[Chris]

That's what makes me nervous about those tweets from a few days ago, where they seem to be prepping us for the possibility that they'll sell the pick or swap into next year.

I am not sure about many things, but one thing I think you can take to the bank is that the C's will not be swapping their pick for a pick next year (unless its a second rounder, and Danny likes value too much to do that).  No team is going to give up a 2012 first rounder for a late first rounder from this draft.

Although, I suppose he could trade down in this draft, and also pick up a future second rounder...and I would be OK with that, since I think there is still as much value in the early second round as there is at 25 in this draft.

[Evantime34]

The average success rate of an NBA prospect picked at 25 or later is not high. Might as well gamble on someone with a high ceiling.

Erden was the last pick of the second round and would have been great on this team if we kept him, and Rondo was the 21st pick, which was sold to us for cash, so don't underestimate the value of late picks.

Those guys are by far the exception, I don't like when people say oh Danny didn't pick well with these late picks. Hitting on any of later picks means he is much better than the league average. No one should expect big things from someone picked as late as 25, hope for the best but don't expect it.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

At very worst he's .... a 6'11, super athletic pf/c.

No, at very worst he's a 6'11", super athletic pf/c that isn't anywhere good enough to play NBA basketball that we would have to pay for 2 years minimum.

Still better than a combo guard who would never play. At least he'd be a body.

This. He'll be someone who'll be needed and develops along the way. Why not.

[jambr380]

At very worst he's .... a 6'11, super athletic pf/c.

No, at very worst he's a 6'11", super athletic pf/c that isn't anywhere good enough to play NBA basketball that we would have to pay for 2 years minimum.

I can't think of many 6'11 Super Athletic guys who weren't able to crack rotations in the NBA...and that's really all we're looking for at this stage in the draft.

Again, super athletic might be an overstatement, but here is a very quick list of guys with familiar names from drafts in the last 10 years or so:

Patrick O'Bryant
Alexis Ajinka
Brandan Wright
Oleksiy Pecherov
Joel Freeland
Chiekh Samb
BJ Mullens
Martynas Andriuskevicius
Hasheem Thabeet (so far)
Loren Woods
Saer Sene
Chris Johnson
Nemanja Aleksandrov
Devon Hardin
Deji Akindele
Jackson Vroman
Trent Plaisted
Longar Longar

Thanks for the rational side of things, Chris - tp...If he was THAT good, he wouldn't be slotted at 25. If he continues to impress, then he will move up the draft board quickly, kind of like Sean Williams did a few years ago (look how that turned out) and we won't get him. There is always a chance that it could work out incredibly well and that is why I would take a waiver on him, but let's not get too excited yet...

[greg_kite]

Whoever they get I just hope he's not undersized for his position.  Tyler seems to have good size so I'm on board for that.

Has anyone seen Jordan Hamilton play?  To me, based on the scouting reports he seems like he'd be a sure thing.  He's tall for his position, he's athletic and is a very good scorer.  He even supposedly has good range.  Why is he supposed to go in the teens?  I'd love to hear what's wrong with him because it seems to me like Danny should grab this guy.

[KCattheStripe]

At very worst he's .... a 6'11, super athletic pf/c.

No, at very worst he's a 6'11", super athletic pf/c that isn't anywhere good enough to play NBA basketball that we would have to pay for 2 years minimum.

I can't think of many 6'11 Super Athletic guys who weren't able to crack rotations in the NBA...and that's really all we're looking for at this stage in the draft.

Again, super athletic might be an overstatement, but here is a very quick list of guys with familiar names from drafts in the last 10 years or so:

Patrick O'Bryant
Alexis Ajinka
Brandan Wright
Oleksiy Pecherov
Joel Freeland
Chiekh Samb
BJ Mullens
Martynas Andriuskevicius
Hasheem Thabeet (so far)
Loren Woods
Saer Sene
Chris Johnson
Nemanja Aleksandrov
Devon Hardin
Deji Akindele
Jackson Vroman
Trent Plaisted
Longar Longar

Thanks for the rational side of things, Chris - tp...If he was THAT good, he wouldn't be slotted at 25. If he continues to impress, then he will move up the draft board quickly, kind of like Sean Williams did a few years ago (look how that turned out) and we won't get him. There is always a chance that it could work out incredibly well and that is why I would take a waiver on him, but let's not get too excited yet...

If Rajon Rondo was as good as he was he wouldn't have fallen to 22nd. If Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki were really the best layers in their draft they wouldn't have gone 8th and 9th. If David Lee was really a borderline all star he wouldn't have been drafted 30th. If Perkins was really going to develop into a dominant post defender, he would not have gone in the 20s.


I find fault with your premise.

[throwedoff]

Man I hope we pick this dude aint gonna front I was discouraged when I heard that report about Reggie Jackson because we need size dude is 6'11 around 260 if I'm not mistaken and athletic if he's available at the 25th pick take him please another bonus IMO is that dude is comitted to defense I hope they dont pass him up

[nickagneta]

At very worst he's .... a 6'11, super athletic pf/c.

No, at very worst he's a 6'11", super athletic pf/c that isn't anywhere good enough to play NBA basketball that we would have to pay for 2 years minimum.

I can't think of many 6'11 Super Athletic guys who weren't able to crack rotations in the NBA...and that's really all we're looking for at this stage in the draft.

Again, super athletic might be an overstatement, but here is a very quick list of guys with familiar names from drafts in the last 10 years or so:

Patrick O'Bryant
Alexis Ajinka
Brandan Wright
Oleksiy Pecherov
Joel Freeland
Chiekh Samb
BJ Mullens
Martynas Andriuskevicius
Hasheem Thabeet (so far)
Loren Woods
Saer Sene
Chris Johnson
Nemanja Aleksandrov
Devon Hardin
Deji Akindele
Jackson Vroman
Trent Plaisted
Longar Longar

Thanks for the rational side of things, Chris - tp...If he was THAT good, he wouldn't be slotted at 25. If he continues to impress, then he will move up the draft board quickly, kind of like Sean Williams did a few years ago (look how that turned out) and we won't get him. There is always a chance that it could work out incredibly well and that is why I would take a waiver on him, but let's not get too excited yet...

If Rajon Rondo was as good as he was he wouldn't have fallen to 22nd. If Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki were really the best layers in their draft they wouldn't have gone 8th and 9th. If David Lee was really a borderline all star he wouldn't have been drafted 30th. If Perkins was really going to develop into a dominant post defender, he would not have gone in the 20s.


I find fault with your premise.

Well of course those players were the best in their drafts and as good as they were, in retrospect. But at the time you are looking at a bunch of coal and wondering which will be diamonds after a few years of pressure.

All I am trying to say, and what Chris illustrated so well, is that, at worst this guy IS NOT going to be a super athletic big guy that will get end of the rotation minutes.

At worst, this guy is a giant bust and will be gone in a year or two. That is the real downside of any player chosen in a draft. Joe Alexander is a perfect example. Very highly regarded out of college. Complete bust. Sean Williams from BC. Same thing. Do I need to talk about JR Giddens. Byron Mullens from 2 years ago, probably this was his last NBA year or next year will be. Same goes for Alexis Ajinca, Kostos Koufos, Nathan Jawai.

I think at this point Tyler has athleticism and size and I know nothing else about him other than he was a high schooler that didn't want to do college so he went overseas and like Brandon Jennings showed very little. Thing is you can't expect every player that does this to have the results of Brandon Jennings and secondly, do you even want them to. Jennings is possibly the most inefficient PG in the league.

I think the C's would be better off with someone more ready to contribute right away but have less upside. Trey Thompkins and JaJuan Johnson come to mind

[clover]

Whoever they get I just hope he's not undersized for his position.  Tyler seems to have good size so I'm on board for that.

Has anyone seen Jordan Hamilton play?  To me, based on the scouting reports he seems like he'd be a sure thing.  He's tall for his position, he's athletic and is a very good scorer.  He even supposedly has good range.  Why is he supposed to go in the teens?  I'd love to hear what's wrong with him because it seems to me like Danny should grab this guy.

I agree.  Lots of people here are excited about Faried, but I'm thinking, "Man, he's even smaller than Gody!"

[gift]

chad ford tweeted today that there is a lot of speculation that reggie jackson has a promise but he says it is not celtics (or nets) as has been rumored.

does this make a tyler scenario more probable?

[KCattheStripe]

If Rajon Rondo was as good as he was he wouldn't have fallen to 22nd. If Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki were really the best layers in their draft they wouldn't have gone 8th and 9th. If David Lee was really a borderline all star he wouldn't have been drafted 30th. If Perkins was really going to develop into a dominant post defender, he would not have gone in the 20s.


I find fault with your premise.

Well of course those players were the best in their drafts and as good as they were, in retrospect. But at the time you are looking at a bunch of coal and wondering which will be diamonds after a few years of pressure.

All I am trying to say, and what Chris illustrated so well, is that, at worst this guy IS NOT going to be a super athletic big guy that will get end of the rotation minutes.

At worst, this guy is a giant bust and will be gone in a year or two. That is the real downside of any player chosen in a draft. Joe Alexander is a perfect example. Very highly regarded out of college. Complete bust. Sean Williams from BC. Same thing. Do I need to talk about JR Giddens. Byron Mullens from 2 years ago, probably this was his last NBA year or next year will be. Same goes for Alexis Ajinca, Kostos Koufos, Nathan Jawai.

I think the C's would be better off with someone more ready to contribute right away but have less upside. Trey Thompkins and JaJuan Johnson come to mind

I don't think any player taken at 25 can be termed a "bust" at that point you're rolling the dice on whether or not a player is going to be in the league for a long time or out after their contract is up.

[jambr380]

At very worst he's .... a 6'11, super athletic pf/c.

No, at very worst he's a 6'11", super athletic pf/c that isn't anywhere good enough to play NBA basketball that we would have to pay for 2 years minimum.

I can't think of many 6'11 Super Athletic guys who weren't able to crack rotations in the NBA...and that's really all we're looking for at this stage in the draft.

Again, super athletic might be an overstatement, but here is a very quick list of guys with familiar names from drafts in the last 10 years or so:

Patrick O'Bryant
Alexis Ajinka
Brandan Wright
Oleksiy Pecherov
Joel Freeland
Chiekh Samb
BJ Mullens
Martynas Andriuskevicius
Hasheem Thabeet (so far)
Loren Woods
Saer Sene
Chris Johnson
Nemanja Aleksandrov
Devon Hardin
Deji Akindele
Jackson Vroman
Trent Plaisted
Longar Longar

Thanks for the rational side of things, Chris - tp...If he was THAT good, he wouldn't be slotted at 25. If he continues to impress, then he will move up the draft board quickly, kind of like Sean Williams did a few years ago (look how that turned out) and we won't get him. There is always a chance that it could work out incredibly well and that is why I would take a waiver on him, but let's not get too excited yet...

If Rajon Rondo was as good as he was he wouldn't have fallen to 22nd. If Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki were really the best layers in their draft they wouldn't have gone 8th and 9th. If David Lee was really a borderline all star he wouldn't have been drafted 30th. If Perkins was really going to develop into a dominant post defender, he would not have gone in the 20s.


I find fault with your premise.

Gee, thanks for your list, although quite short for your point, as there are dozens of other examples to support what you are trying to prove. I guess I didn't explain myself well enough. What I meant was that if a seven footer with off the charts athleticism is impressing so much on the court and in interviews, then his draft stock will increase greatly and we will have no chance at him.

When I said, 'if he was that good', I didn't mean, 'if he was guaranteed to be an NBA superstar', I meant, 'if he was thought of as that good'. I really didn't think it was that difficult of a point to understand and I thought the rest of my post supported that.

[PAOBoston]

i find it kinda laughable that people are expecting a #25 pick to be a contributor to the c's next year. chances are that pick wont do anything. of course, the c's might get lucky but the nba draft is a crapshoot and usually anything outside the top 5 (and that is being generous) quite often doesnt pan out.

at #25, it all falls on what danny ainge's "plan" is. does he draft a project that "could" become an all star post big 3 or does he draft a solid fundamentals guy that really doesnt have a high ceiling? personally, i'll take the guy with potential at 25. if tyler is there, i think he's raw potential and athletic tools would be the type of project DA would be attracted to.

[KCattheStripe]

At very worst he's .... a 6'11, super athletic pf/c.

No, at very worst he's a 6'11", super athletic pf/c that isn't anywhere good enough to play NBA basketball that we would have to pay for 2 years minimum.

I can't think of many 6'11 Super Athletic guys who weren't able to crack rotations in the NBA...and that's really all we're looking for at this stage in the draft.

Again, super athletic might be an overstatement, but here is a very quick list of guys with familiar names from drafts in the last 10 years or so:

Patrick O'Bryant
Alexis Ajinka
Brandan Wright
Oleksiy Pecherov
Joel Freeland
Chiekh Samb
BJ Mullens
Martynas Andriuskevicius
Hasheem Thabeet (so far)
Loren Woods
Saer Sene
Chris Johnson
Nemanja Aleksandrov
Devon Hardin
Deji Akindele
Jackson Vroman
Trent Plaisted
Longar Longar

Thanks for the rational side of things, Chris - tp...If he was THAT good, he wouldn't be slotted at 25. If he continues to impress, then he will move up the draft board quickly, kind of like Sean Williams did a few years ago (look how that turned out) and we won't get him. There is always a chance that it could work out incredibly well and that is why I would take a waiver on him, but let's not get too excited yet...

If Rajon Rondo was as good as he was he wouldn't have fallen to 22nd. If Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki were really the best layers in their draft they wouldn't have gone 8th and 9th. If David Lee was really a borderline all star he wouldn't have been drafted 30th. If Perkins was really going to develop into a dominant post defender, he would not have gone in the 20s.


I find fault with your premise.

Gee, thanks for your list, although quite short for your point, as there are dozens of other examples to support what you are trying to prove. I guess I didn't explain myself well enough. What I meant was that if a seven footer with off the charts athleticism is impressing so much on the court and in interviews, then his draft stock will increase greatly and we will have no chance at him.

When I said, 'if he was that good', I didn't mean, 'if he was guaranteed to be an NBA superstar', I meant, 'if he was thought of as that good'. I really didn't think it was that difficult of a point to understand and I thought the rest of my post supported that.

Actually no, player's draft stock are often controlled by worries about what a player can't do rather than what they can. For example, Rondo's lack of a jumper, Lee's lack of height, Darrel Arthur's phantom kidney condition, Whatever it was that caused DeAndre Jordan's slide.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I'd rather gamble on a big like this than throw another pick away on a combo guard.

Ditto that. And why the fascination with combo guards? Yes they have value, but we already have Delonte and Bradley.