How many times have we blown a 4th quarter lead?

[bobdelt]

During the  new 'big 3' era, how many times have we blown a lead in the 4th quarter, or a rather large lead in the 3rd? Anybody have any data on that?

Game 7, obviously, the last two heat games. But this goes back to 2008, where the team struggled to score in the last few minutes of a game. Previous years was a lot of Paul Pierce iso that didnt work. This year they couldn't execute at all.

I'm curious to see how many blown 4th quarter leads the C's have compared to the rest of the league. It's been an issue that Doc hasnt been able to fix.

If the team was able to execute more regularly at the end of games, not only would we be playing tonight up 3-2, we'd be shooting for banner #19. I wonder why this doesn't get more attention.

[ACF]

47,581?

I'll still say injuries and bad calls killed us. Call it whining or whatever you want to call it. It's the truth. We will be playing against 8 players for a lot of years to come. We've got to reload.

[GrandTheftRondo]

Too [dang] many.

[Jon]

This is all true; however, as you point out, we've overcome this problem even in 2008 to win a title.  I think the biggest difference between last year and this year is that this year we didn't have Rondo. 

Would we have lost our lead in Games 4 and 5 with a healthy Rondo?  Probably part of it.  But certainly in Game 4 and possibly in Game 5, we wouldn't have lost it all the way. 

[the TRUTH]

During the  new 'big 3' era, how many times have we blown a lead in the 4th quarter, or a rather large lead in the 3rd? Anybody have any data on that?

Game 7, obviously, the last two heat games. But this goes back to 2008, where the team struggled to score in the last few minutes of a game. Previous years was a lot of Paul Pierce iso that didnt work. This year they couldn't execute at all.

I'm curious to see how many blown 4th quarter leads the C's have compared to the rest of the league. It's been an issue that Doc hasnt been able to fix.

If the team was able to execute more regularly at the end of games, not only would we be playing tonight up 3-2, we'd be shooting for banner #19. I wonder why this doesn't get more attention.

Completely agree with you, TP. I said pretty much the same thing in a thread titled "Doc Rivers is overrated." Doc has done some great things here, but IMO he doesn't get nearly enough criticism for completely failing to fix this glaring problem.

[Celtics18]

I tried to look for it, but couldn't find the numbers on most blown fourth quarter leads.  Seeing as you guys agree that the Celtics had the most, I may as well just accept is as truth, I guess. 

[BballTim]

47,581?

 Are you out of your mind? That number doesn't even cover the preseason.

[LB3533]

4th quarter and double digit leads resulting in losses were a trend beginning last season and carried over this season.

I don't remember losing many double digit leads or 4th quarter leads in '08 or '09.

[Redz]

Too [dang] many.

Once too many to be precise!

[BASS_THUMPER]

Too [dang] many.

Once too many to be precise!

well Watson..

u must figure out the equation buy using pi and forward lateral of the x=h20

which will give u an estimated solution..

[BballTim]

Too [dang] many.

Once too many to be precise!

well Watson..

u must figure out the equation buy using pi and forward lateral of the x=h20

which will give u an estimated solution..

  Pretty sure forward laterals are illegal...

[RyNye]

It's hard to say exactly how many times we've blown a 4th quarter lead. However, clutch efficiency ratings are readily available. For this past season (courtesy of a friend that follows the Mavericks), here are the relative clutch efficiencies of the various NBA teams that made the playoffs against each other:



The blue bars represent offensive efficiency in late game (less than 5 minutes left in 4th quarter or overtime, with neither team ahead by more than 5 points) situations, and the orange is defensive efficiency in the same categories.

As you can see, defensively we are average, pretty much exactly in the middle (Chicago is the best, Dallas the worst). However, this actually indicates poor performance, as that indicates we've dropped from the best defense in the NBA to an average one in clutch situations.

Offensively, we are just slightly higher than average, on par with the Spurs and the Lakers. The best are the Magic, the Mavericks, the Trail Blazers, and the Suns. The worst are New Orleans and Chicago.

Unfortunately this data is only for this post-season and not previous ones. However, it seems to me to be fairly accurate. In clutch situations we regress to the level of a low-seeded or average playoff contender, as opposed to the elite team we should be, especially defensively.

The other way to look at it is to go to 82games.com's list of the best individual clutch performers this season, here. Our best clutch performer is, no surprise, Paul Pierce ... but he ranks at 39th in the league. The next Celtic to appear isn't until Ray Allen at the 56th mark. In addition, Rondo was the 9th WORST in the league (or at least among players that 82games.com analyzed).

[BASS_THUMPER]

It's hard to say exactly how many times we've blown a 4th quarter lead. However, clutch efficiency ratings are readily available. For this past season (courtesy of a friend that follows the Mavericks), here are the relative clutch efficiencies of the various NBA teams that made the playoffs against each other:



The blue bars represent offensive efficiency in late game (less than 5 minutes left in 4th quarter or overtime, with neither team ahead by more than 5 points) situations, and the orange is defensive efficiency in the same categories.

As you can see, defensively we are average, pretty much exactly in the middle (Chicago is the best, Dallas the worst). However, this actually indicates poor performance, as that indicates we've dropped from the best defense in the NBA to an average one in clutch situations.

Offensively, we are just slightly higher than average, on par with the Spurs and the Lakers. The best are the Magic, the Mavericks, the Trail Blazers, and the Suns. The worst are New Orleans and Chicago.

Unfortunately this data is only for this post-season and not previous ones. However, it seems to me to be fairly accurate. In clutch situations we regress to the level of a low-seeded or average playoff contender, as opposed to the elite team we should be, especially defensively.

The other way to look at it is to go to 82games.com's list of the best individual clutch performers this season, here. Our best clutch performer is, no surprise, Paul Pierce ... but he ranks at 39th in the league. The next Celtic to appear isn't until Ray Allen at the 56th mark. In addition, Rondo was the 9th WORST in the league (or at least among players that 82games.com analyzed).

lol..haha..

my boy came wit the graph chart and every thang..lol

tp pimpin!!!

[LB3533]

Yea, if you are looking at playoffs the numbers are going to be skewed a bit.

9 playoff games, 4 of which came against the Knicks. (5 against the Heat)

Those two teams' defense are quite different.

The Knicks were also banged up.

The Heat were pretty healthy.

I remember that we execute fairly well in the 4th quarter clutch situations against the Knicks, and maybe one or two of the games there wasn't even the need to be in the clutch since we won fairly handily.

Against the Heat defense....it would be no surprise to me that our offense and defense would decrease in late game situations. As the game goes on and even if it prolongs into OT that just means more fatigue settling in for our aging vets. Factor in the Miami defense and our own injuries putting players playing out of their normal roles...you can get the idea we weren't going to be our normal efficient selves.

Even if we were healthy....we may not have been our normal efficient selves against the Heat.

Also, the playoffs is a new stage and it brings out the best or worst in every player.

Take Lebron for example. Everyone was used to seeing Lebron (as well a the rest of the Heat) choke in the 4th clutch situations.

In the playoffs, it looked like a complete 180 for Lebron and the Heat.

Now, if Lebron and the Heat continued to choke, maybe it wouldn't even have mattered how different our efficiency was.

[KindBass]

This is how a typical Celtics loss goes:

The starters build a 10-15 point lead in the 1st quarter, because they're better than any team in this league when they're fresh.  Then the 2nd unit comes in.  The bench can't score and can't play defense.  The 10-15 point lead disappears.  Mid 2nd quarter, the starters come back and keep it close until halftime.  The 2nd half starts, and the starters build another lead, because, again, they're better and had a breather at halftime.  Then the bench comes in and immediately blows said lead again.  Except now, there's about 7-8 minutes left and the starters are too old and tired to keep up anymore.

Seriously, I bet there are no more than 1 or 2 Celtics losses this year where they didn't have a lead at some point past the 1st quarter.