For anyone who understands how odds work, Las Vegas currently has Dallas -280 to win their series against the Lakers while Miami is -650 to beat the Celtics and move on.
Just by going off of these odds, Las Vegas is saying that the Lakers are more than 2 times as likely to comeback and win their series as the Celtics are.
I realize the Lakers and C's are playing different levels of opponents, but those numbers also take into consideration that the Lakers lost two home games and would play 3 of the next 4 on the road while the Celtics lost their games on the road.
+1...I agree your implication that we have at least as good a shot as the Lakers have at winning their respective series. I therefore agree that the Vegas odds are out of whack.
Vegas odds, however, are based not on what the Vegas line-makers believe to be the probability of a particular event occurring, but rather on what the line-makers believe
the public's perceptionof that event occurring appears to be. If too much $$$ is bet in one direction, the line is adjusted by the line-makers the other way to entice more people to bet the other way.
Lines-makers make odds theoretically so that the same amount of money is bet on each team, so in effect, the closer that they can get to gauging the public's perception, the more $$$ they can make on the "vig" and the less chance that they get burned by all the $$ going one way and the "wrong" team loses.
In 2008, the Lakers were 9-11 to win the series. If you bet on the Cs, 5 got you 9 and any multiples thereof (i.e. a $5,000 bet on the Cs won you $9000 and you had to bet $11,000 to win $5,000 if you liked the Lakers.) The Vegas bookmakers and bookmakers in cities other than Boston made a fortune because the Lakers were "overbet".
The public was wrong then, and hopefully they will be wrong this time.
Also, +1 to the OP.