ESPN "experts" picks for Heat/Celtics

[action781]

Hollinger's so high on his numbers and statistics that time after time, he fails to see that perhaps his computations are not entirely stable.

Ive come to grips with his calculations.

They do a good job of predicting regular season success. For example when Miami was struggling early, his numbers indicated they were actually a good team.

His numbers cannot tell him ANYTHING about playoff success though.

If you put a gun to his head, I bet he would pick the Celtics. He just cant publicly pick a team whose average margain of victory was 2 points lower than the other.

Why do you say that?  I'd actually be willing to take you up on that bet saying that he'd still pick Miami.  Miami is a solid pick to win the series (while I disagree) regardless if one has a gun to his head or not.  If it weren't then Vegas would be losing a whooooole lot of money.

[JohnBagleyValueMeal]

*IF* the Celtics are up 3-2 going into game 6, I'm fairly certain they'll win. I've said all year that Miami has no home court advantage, and I have no problem imagining the Celtics going into their building and winning. I don't know if Miami can fight their way out of a corner if the C's push them to the brink.

What I don't want to see as a Celtics fan is giving LBJ/Wade multiple chances to put us away with spectacular individual efforts. They're dangerous when they're confident and out in front.

[kozlodoev]

*IF* the Celtics are up 3-2 going into game 6, I'm fairly certain they'll win.

Yep, just like last year... oh, wait...

[BballTim]

*IF* the Celtics are up 3-2 going into game 6, I'm fairly certain they'll win. I've said all year that Miami has no home court advantage, and I have no problem imagining the Celtics going into their building and winning. I don't know if Miami can fight their way out of a corner if the C's push them to the brink.

What I don't want to see as a Celtics fan is giving LBJ/Wade multiple chances to put us away with spectacular individual efforts. They're dangerous when they're confident and out in front.

  Wouldn't game 6 be in Boston?

[mgent]

Hollinger's so high on his numbers and statistics that time after time, he fails to see that perhaps his computations are not entirely stable.

Ive come to grips with his calculations.

They do a good job of predicting regular season success. For example when Miami was struggling early, his numbers indicated they were actually a good team.

His numbers cannot tell him ANYTHING about playoff success though.

If you put a gun to his head, I bet he would pick the Celtics. He just cant publicly pick a team whose average margain of victory was 2 points lower than the other.

For the other guys, the fact that most are picking Miami in 7 tells me these are two pretty evenly matched teams. Im guessing if Boston had homecourt at least half of those picks would be Boston in 7.

Of course I think the Celts will take it in 6 but I actually dont have any problem with their picks.

If by good team you mean a team that almost always beats bad teams (by a lot) but is pretty poor against good teams.  Coincidentally it works in the regular season because there aren't that many good teams, but he's got to be the dumbest guy in the world for relying on the same logic in the playoffs

[indeedproceed]

I am very amused that Brian Windhurst picked Celtics. He's basically LeBron James's personally appointed journalist.

[mgent]

*IF* the Celtics are up 3-2 going into game 6, I'm fairly certain they'll win.

Yep, just like last year... oh, wait...

Two years*

[Greenbean]

Hollinger's so high on his numbers and statistics that time after time, he fails to see that perhaps his computations are not entirely stable.

Ive come to grips with his calculations.

They do a good job of predicting regular season success. For example when Miami was struggling early, his numbers indicated they were actually a good team.

His numbers cannot tell him ANYTHING about playoff success though.

If you put a gun to his head, I bet he would pick the Celtics. He just cant publicly pick a team whose average margain of victory was 2 points lower than the other.

Why do you say that?  I'd actually be willing to take you up on that bet saying that he'd still pick Miami.  Miami is a solid pick to win the series (while I disagree) regardless if one has a gun to his head or not.  If it weren't then Vegas would be losing a whooooole lot of money.

The reason I say that is because John Hollinger's "persona" as a collumnbist is to live and die by his calculations.

At the same time I would assume over the years that the guy has watched a TON of basketball. If this is true, there is no way he could think that the Heat will breeze by the celts. I guess I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt that he really isnt a slave to his data.

Also, its kind of funny (and distrubing) to think about betting on what someone would do with a gun to his head!

[j804]

What's the fuss throughout 08 over half didn't pick us and we eventually won the tittle, this is a good thing isn't it?

[fairweatherfan]

Also, its kind of funny (and distrubing) to think about betting on what someone would do with a gun to his head!

The smart money's always on "Involuntarily urinate."

[Greenbean]

Also, its kind of funny (and distrubing) to think about betting on what someone would do with a gun to his head!

The smart money's always on "Involuntarily urinate."

TP

[Greenbean]

Hollinger's so high on his numbers and statistics that time after time, he fails to see that perhaps his computations are not entirely stable.

Ive come to grips with his calculations.

They do a good job of predicting regular season success. For example when Miami was struggling early, his numbers indicated they were actually a good team.

His numbers cannot tell him ANYTHING about playoff success though.

If you put a gun to his head, I bet he would pick the Celtics. He just cant publicly pick a team whose average margain of victory was 2 points lower than the other.

For the other guys, the fact that most are picking Miami in 7 tells me these are two pretty evenly matched teams. Im guessing if Boston had homecourt at least half of those picks would be Boston in 7.

Of course I think the Celts will take it in 6 but I actually dont have any problem with their picks.

If by good team you mean a team that almost always beats bad teams (by a lot) but is pretty poor against good teams.  Coincidentally it works in the regular season because there aren't that many good teams, but he's got to be the dumbest guy in the world for relying on the same logic in the playoffs

I cant think of many other teams that fits that profile. The Heat lost a ton of close games in the regular season because they lack execution in late game situations. They are an outlier IMO and that is why Hollinger's prediction is the outlier of all the experts.

[ejk3489]

*IF* the Celtics are up 3-2 going into game 6, I'm fairly certain they'll win.

Yep, just like last year... oh, wait...

Well we won last year in the second round and ECF by going up 3-2, right?

Plus bringing up the Finals is pretty irrelevant seeing as how the formating is different than the other rounds.

[blake]

I like the Celtics chances in the Miami series. They are a more complete and tested team. Besides, the Lakers don't seem to match up well with Miami.

I saw your post count and I was going to give you a TP as a welcome.  Then I saw your name.  =  TP count still zero.  Welcome anyways.

[jdpapa3]

I am very amused that Brian Windhurst picked Celtics. He's basically LeBron James's personally appointed journalist.

That's what got me too. Didn't expect that in a million years. I wonder what his angle is.

I think picking a team in 5 is strongly taking their side and really fading/disrespecting the other team. I'm fine if guys take the other team in 6/7 games, but I am not cool with Hollinger's call. Hollinger strongly weighing the last 1/4 of the season, but is that the most sensible thing to do? Did he have an article talking about the backtesting of this? I have an issue with it because of teams taking their foot off the pedal.