ESPN "experts" picks for Heat/Celtics

[ejk3489]

I am very amused that Brian Windhurst picked Celtics. He's basically LeBron James's personally appointed journalist.

That's what got me too. Didn't expect that in a million years. I wonder what his angle is. 

I feel like he's sort of hinted at this for awhile...at least in some of his recent articles:

“We always felt it would happen at some point,” James said after he scored 16 points with 10 rebounds in Wednesday’s win. “We have to play Boston to get where we want to get. It’s here now. We’re looking forward to the challenge.”

A challenge, indeed. The Celtics polished off the Knicks in their first-round series with aplomb, silencing Madison Square Garden on the way out. The Heat, meanwhile, hardly were as impressive in dispatching the Sixers. After three sufficiently effective victories, the last two games of the series were hardly a reflection of the Heat’s momentum from the end of the regular season.

“It was good for us playing that team, it was a battle each and every game,” said Bosh, who had 22 points and 11 rebounds. “ It was good for us to have that stress of having to execute down the stretch. It was good for us to have those emotions.”

The stress will be nothing compared to what the Celtics are expected to bring, something Bosh openly acknowledged. That was why there wasn’t a hint of celebration after the buzzer, even though it was the first time in Bosh’s career he’d advanced to the second round. The series win over Philadelphia also marks the first time the Heat have made it out of the first round since they won the title in 2006.

As Rajon Rondo was cutting up the Knicks on Friday just up the Eastern seaboard, know the Heat players were quietly cursing that he’s blasted out of his slump and beginning to steel themselves for that gathering storm. With every Ray Allen 3-pointer, Paul Pierce elbow jumper and Kevin Garnett sweaty scream, the Celtics have worked further into the Heat’s consciousness.

The Heat have been thinking about the series that will probably begin next Sunday for months like a 16-year-old views that approaching driver’s test, with horrified excitement.

Doesn't sound like a guy who's very confident in his own team.

[Celticsfan336]

Kind of surprising to see that three guys picked us this time while usually ESPN goes all the way with the overhyped team (see Cleveland, Orlando last year most notably), although among these 3 guys are Chris Forsberg (Celtics beat reporter) and Tim Legler (the only guy from ESPN who usually picks us). I'm semi surprised to see Windhorst pick us, he is well aware of Miami's weaknesses and knows LeBron very well so I guess he still doesn't feel like he will beat the Celtics this year.

As for the rest... they all pick Miami in 7 except John "Dumb" Hollinger who picks them in 5.

Simple yet efffective.

I can't stand ESPN analysts. Legler is one of the few I dont mind. I'd like to see barkleys, magics, barrys, etc. There not as bad as these "analysts"

[celticinorlando]

as long as legler picks us we are golden...brossard just slobs on James

[wahz]

Hollinger's so high on his numbers and statistics that time after time, he fails to see that perhaps his computations are not entirely stable.

Ive come to grips with his calculations.

They do a good job of predicting regular season success. For example when Miami was struggling early, his numbers indicated they were actually a good team.

His numbers cannot tell him ANYTHING about playoff success though.

If you put a gun to his head, I bet he would pick the Celtics. He just cant publicly pick a team whose average margain of victory was 2 points lower than the other.

For the other guys, the fact that most are picking Miami in 7 tells me these are two pretty evenly matched teams. Im guessing if Boston had homecourt at least half of those picks would be Boston in 7.

Of course I think the Celts will take it in 6 but I actually dont have any problem with their picks.

how did he do in the Memphis, San Anton series?;>)

[JoT]

Kind of surprising to see that three guys picked us this time while usually ESPN goes all the way with the overhyped team (see Cleveland, Orlando last year most notably), although among these 3 guys are Chris Forsberg (Celtics beat reporter) and Tim Legler (the only guy from ESPN who usually picks us). I'm semi surprised to see Windhorst pick us, he is well aware of Miami's weaknesses and knows LeBron very well so I guess he still doesn't feel like he will beat the Celtics this year.

As for the rest... they all pick Miami in 7 except John "Dumb" Hollinger who picks them in 5.

Simple yet efffective.

I can't stand ESPN analysts. Legler is one of the few I dont mind. I'd like to see barkleys, magics, barrys, etc. There not as bad as these "analysts"

Barkley from what I read last night said Celtics and Magic was on the radio this morning in LA and said Celtics also. Magic said while the Heat have talent, they just don't match well with Boston. They said our bench was better and we have too many resources.

[Celticsfan336]

Hollinger's so high on his numbers and statistics that time after time, he fails to see that perhaps his computations are not entirely stable.

Ive come to grips with his calculations.

They do a good job of predicting regular season success. For example when Miami was struggling early, his numbers indicated they were actually a good team.

His numbers cannot tell him ANYTHING about playoff success though.

If you put a gun to his head, I bet he would pick the Celtics. He just cant publicly pick a team whose average margain of victory was 2 points lower than the other.

Why do you say that?  I'd actually be willing to take you up on that bet saying that he'd still pick Miami.  Miami is a solid pick to win the series (while I disagree) regardless if one has a gun to his head or not.  If it weren't then Vegas would be losing a whooooole lot of money.

Statistically, mabye....having knowledge of how NBA playoff basketball is and knowledge of the past, not so much.

Hollinger doesn't take into account many things. They may have been a statistical good team, but how about there "statitistics" against +.500 teams, and the elite teams. I will never give the Heat or Hollinger credit until they beat the best

[LooseCannon]

Hollinger strongly weighing the last 1/4 of the season, but is that the most sensible thing to do? Did he have an article talking about the backtesting of this? I have an issue with it because of teams taking their foot off the pedal.

Strongly weighing the last 1/4 of the season is pretty much what has been done by Celtics fans who think that the Perkins trade gutted the team's championship chances.  I disagree, but I can see where they are coming from.

[Yogi]

   Hollinger is willing to stick by his statistics.  I respect him for that.  If his pick is based on "point differential" then Boston will appear to him a very weak team.  We know that Boston plays down to competition and we drop too many games to sub .500 teams.  However Boston has a very good record against the top teams.  This leads them to "look worse" than they actually are. 
   Miami's record against the elite teams was not too impressive, but they often destroyed the sub .500 teams by a large margin.  I believe this leads them to "look better" than they actually are. 
   You can't measure heart, and the Celtics play  with a ton of heart in the post-season.  I wonder if Hollinger made any adjustments to his system based on his previous predictions and how they turned out. 

[dtrader]

I actually think they're giving us a lot of credit.  Aside from one outlier, theyre all saying that we'll either win, or come as close as possible to winning.  Seems like a far cry from the pessimism that everyone seemed to have at the end of the regular season.

[cdif911]

Celtics in 3 - Heat quit after losing by a combined 200 points in games 1, 2 and 3

[indeedproceed]

Hollinger strongly weighing the last 1/4 of the season, but is that the most sensible thing to do? Did he have an article talking about the backtesting of this? I have an issue with it because of teams taking their foot off the pedal.

Strongly weighing the last 1/4 of the season is pretty much what has been done by Celtics fans who think that the Perkins trade gutted the team's championship chances.  I disagree, but I can see where they are coming from.

Haha, well played.

Statistically, late season momentum is irrelevant, iirc.

[BASS_THUMPER]

if they public tell us how the C's are goin down they should public say they were wrong..

and then they should be fired

[Lakers are the Best]

I like the Celtics chances in the Miami series. They are a more complete and tested team. Besides, the Lakers don't seem to match up well with Miami.

I saw your post count and I was going to give you a TP as a welcome.  Then I saw your name.  =  TP count still zero.  Welcome anyways.

Thanks for the welcome anyways - I don't need no stinking points. Hate to admit it, but I enjoy this blog much more than the Lakers Blog - better quality postings and more user-driven.

[SHAQATTACK]

Home court doesn't seem to be a help for the Celtics, matter fact sometimes I think it is just the opposite.

I look for Boston and Rondo to jump on the Heat in game one like a pack of starved wolves.

I think Boston has got this teams number.

[Celticsfan336]

I like the Celtics chances in the Miami series. They are a more complete and tested team. Besides, the Lakers don't seem to match up well with Miami.

I saw your post count and I was going to give you a TP as a welcome.  Then I saw your name.  =  TP count still zero.  Welcome anyways.

Thanks for the welcome anyways - I don't need no stinking points. Hate to admit it, but I enjoy this blog much more than the Lakers Blog - better quality postings and more user-driven.

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haha jk welcome to celticsblog hopefully we can transform you into a banner 18 warrior.