Is Al Jefferson a Career Loser or Victim of Circumstance?

[huzy]

And with 54 seconds remaining in the third quarter of Utah’s game with Washington, center Al Jefferson was pulled from the game and never returned. The team’s leading scorer (19.1 ppg) was benched for the remainder of the contest and wasn’t in a talking mood afterwords. According to reports, Jefferson had no comment and adamantly waved off reporters after leaving the locker room.

After reading the above story I asked myself the following question: What does Al Jefferson bring to an NBA team?

Al is now wrapping up his sixth straight season where his team has failed to secure a playoff spot. His sole appearance was during his rookie year where he was a cog and not a centerpiece. He now finds himself the poster boy for the first Utah Jazz team to miss the playoffs in the last four seasons.
Of course it has to be noted that Utah watched Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Wes Matthews, and Carlos Boozer walk (Al's predecessor, making this a moot point), Jerry Sloan resign, and Deron Williams be shockingly shipped to New Jersey.

But, the following trend has to be acknowledged: Each year that Al has been a statistical leader for a team, their record has been proportionately weak:

Year   Team           Wins   Loss      %    PPG

2010-11   Utah           38   43   0.469   18.7

2009-10   Minnesota   15   67   0.183   17.1

2008-09   Minnesota   24   58   0.293   23.1

2007-08   Minnesota   22   60   0.268   21

2006-07   Boston           24   58   0.293   16

2005-06   Boston            33   49   0.402   7.9

2004-05 Boston            45   37   0.549   6.7

               
   Career Totals   163   329   0.331   
   Total GP   492         

The first thing that came to mind when looking at the following numbers was "lies, [dang] lies, and statistics." But, reading the above story about Al being benched (albeit by a coach who's clearly in over his head) reflects someone who may not be a true leader.

I've always had a rooting interest in Al and I wish him success. But, looking at the debacle that was Minnesota before Al was traded and the mess that is now known as the Utah Jazz, I can't help but wonder the correlation between each situation and Al's presence on both respective franchises.

While this comparison may not be fully supported, I currently view Al (on the court) as a similar player to Zach Randolph before his recent maturation (on the court.) Al has the ability to "get his" and fills up a stats sheet but I expect it will take him a while to translate his skills into the intangible elements of winning basketball.

I know Al is still viewed very favorably by most Celtics fans. I'm curious to hear others opinions on this theory...

[Roy H.]

I think Big Al can be an important piece on a winning team.  I mean, his skill set is very similar to Zach Randolph, who has really turned his career around lately.  

I think if you surround Big Al with a strong veteran presence -- say, on this Boston team, playing center -- I think he'd excel.  He needs to commit himself more on the defensive end, and that definitely limits him, but I don't consider him to be hopeless or a loser in any way.

(Confession:  I wrote my post before reading all of yours.  The Zach Randolph comparison is dead on, at least on the court, I think.  I think Randolph has finally started to "get it", and I expect that Big Al will, too.)

[jdpapa3]

For Al to ever be on a successful team, he absolutely needs to have an all NBA defensive center to play alongside him. There are not a lot of those in existence. Himself as the Center or Darko Milicic just ain't cutting it. He's mediocre at man to man defense and excels against certain guys, but he just doesn't protect the rim very well in the team scheme.

[GreenFaith1819]

Tell you what - if we could somehow get him for a discount, I'd take him back. I know that is nearly impossible, but to answer the thread I think he is a victim of circumstance.

How he'd fit in? I agree with Roy and jdpapa3.

[KungPoweChicken]

There is definitely a correlation between Jefferson putting up numbers and losing. But correlation doesn't equal causation.

To a great degree, he has been the victim of circumstance. He simply is not a good enough player to put a lousy team on his back and make them a 30-40 win team like Pierce or Garnett could. But I believe he could be a nice second or third option on a good team.

[PosImpos]

Like Z-Bo, Big Al needs the right situation.  He needs to be placed next to a big man who can be the mobile, weak-side shot-blocking presence that he isn't.  Place him next to a Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Serge Ibaka, or even a DeAndre Jordan, Javale McGee, Al Horford (and so on) and he could be successful.  His team also needs to have good perimeter defenders.

If you put him on a team where he's asked to be an inside defensive presence, especially without perimeter defenders who can prevent penetration, and his team will not win much.

[stylo617617]

i hope we can somehow find a way for big al to come back to bsoton in his prime i wouldve trade BBD & some picks ina  s&t next year but idk how that would work pipe dream more than anything

[GreenFaith1819]

Danny being the gambler he is...if things continue to go south for Utah next season......you never know.

We have a habit of getting  former players back, right?

[Fafnir]

We'll see if his rebounding gets back to where it was in Minnesota. Both his injury and his lack of progress towards becoming a team player worries me. He gets a solid amount of defensive rebounds, but still manages to absolutely kill his team with lack of effort in that aspect of the game. Then you have to look at his defense overall, just no effort there.

Makes you wonder how good he'd be if he was engaged all the time and if he ever will get engaged.

[More Banners]

I think AJ's contract a this point locks him into being a loser.

He's not a top banana, but would be a great 2nd-3rd option offensively, and needs to be on an otherwise-excellent defensive team to compensate for his suckiness on D.  Unfortunately, since he's being paid like a top banana and plays like one on offense (out-McHale-ing McHale as a black hole), those other pieces won't come together next to him, and he is at risk of being on fringe teams for his entire career until signing somewhere for the minimum to chase a ring when he's old and gimpy.

He's great at what he's great at, but lacks the complete 2-way game that it takes to win, or even be good.

[soap07]

I think Big Al can be an important piece on a winning team.  I mean, his skill set is very similar to Zach Randolph, who has really turned his career around lately.  

I think if you surround Big Al with a strong veteran presence -- say, on this Boston team, playing center -- I think he'd excel.  He needs to commit himself more on the defensive end, and that definitely limits him, but I don't consider him to be hopeless or a loser in any way.

(Confession:  I wrote my post before reading all of yours.  The Zach Randolph comparison is dead on, at least on the court, I think.  I think Randolph has finally started to "get it", and I expect that Big Al will, too.)

I'll never understand this - this notion that Z-Bo has "matured" and "turned his career around." Zach Randolph is playing the exact same way he played in Portland. He's just surrounded with much more talent now.

"I think Randolph has finally started to "get it",

Get what? His last year in Portland is pretty much the same year he's having now. It helps to be surrounded by Gasol, Mayo, Conley etc. He's the exact same player with the exact same skillset. People like to say he "matured" as a way of rationalizing that Randolph is contributing to a winning team.

Meanwhile, the fact of the matter is that if anything, Randolph was completely underrated in the latter half of his Portland career. People just notice him now because he's on a playoff team. He's slightly more efficient now - but really, he's the same player. There was no maturation - it's just that he was really good back in the day and no one noticed because of his off-court exploits.

[soap07]

Like Z-Bo, Big Al needs the right situation.  He needs to be placed next to a big man who can be the mobile, weak-side shot-blocking presence that he isn't.  Place him next to a Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Serge Ibaka, or even a DeAndre Jordan, Javale McGee, Al Horford (and so on) and he could be successful.  His team also needs to have good perimeter defenders.

If you put him on a team where he's asked to be an inside defensive presence, especially without perimeter defenders who can prevent penetration, and his team will not win much.

I couldn't agree more. I think you nailed it on the head here. Z-Bo didn't "get it" or "mature" - he just needs a certain type of player around him for his team to win. Jefferson is the same way.

[Chris]

The Evidence is really against him right now.  He finally was traded to a winning team, and they completely imploded within months of his arrival...including the longest tenured coach in the NBA resigning, and trading away their franchise player.  

Ultimately though, I think the answer is somewhere in between.  I don't think Jefferson is a franchise player.  He just is not well rounded enough.  I think a franchise player is a guy you can win with, with a supporting cast that may not fit perfectly  So, if you are going to build the team around him, you are going to be in trouble.  However, if you put him in the right situation, with some other stars, and a supporting cast that fits with his strengths, and hides his weaknesses, you can win with him, and he would be an important part.

He really has had tough luck with the teams he has been on.  The C's team, we all know the deal.  In Minnesota, the supporting cast was just horrendous.  He never made the guys around him better, that's true, but he didn't have a whole lot to work with.

Now, Utah was a little different.  They had some talent, and in Williams, it really should have been a good opportunity to play with someone who can make a guy like him better.  The problem was, the team was still not put together well.  They had a PG whose strength is the pick and roll, while Jefferson is more of an Iso post player.  And of course, they had no real quality wing players, and 3 power forwards playing the 3,4,and 5 spots.  So, it wasn't as good a situation as it looks.

I wouldn't be surprised if Al has a bit of a renaissance in a couple years, if he can find the right fit.  But at this point, I think we can say with pretty much certainty, while he may not be a loser, he is certainly not a winner.

[KeepBigAl]

He needs the right situation and coach. If we had Al, our anemic offense would have a much needed dimension -  A GREAT POST UP SCORER - We settle for far too many jumpers. The following guys would rather shoot outside than play in the post -

Kevin
Kristic
JO
Baby
Murphy
PP (he CAN actually post, but has not been lately)

...so we are back to waiting for Shaq (who can't hold a candle to Al in the post these days)

[slamtheking]

Al's like the vast majority of players in the league, they need to be on the right team with the right teammates in order to succeed.  Al hasn't had that opportunity yet.