Krstic regressing to the mean

[droopdog7]

While I applaud his effort, Krstic is looking more like the player we thought we were getting lately.  Which is fine, since he wasn't the main piece of the trade anyway.

We may eventually need both O'Neals back to make a run at the title.  If they can come back, Krstic should find himself at #3 center.

[Roy H.]

We may eventually need both O'Neals back to make a run at the title.  If they can come back, Krstic should find himself at #3 center.

It depends.  If JO is a reasonable approximation of the player he was last year, then I agree, he offers more than Krstic just in terms of his defense and rebounding.  However, if he's hobbled, I think we'll be fine with Krstic as backup center. 

The important thing is to get Shaq back, though.   

[Chris]

Yeah, he definitely has been regressing a bit.  I think he just was working really hard to prove himself in those first handful of games, and basically played at a pace he could not keep up with.  

There is a reason guys like Krstic doesn't usually beat his man down the floor...he just is not that fast, and it takes a ton of energy to go all out to do it.  When he is playing 20-25+ minutes per game, that is just a tough pace to keep up.  

It also really shows in his ability to get through the rotations, particularly when he is blitzing the pick and roll, and then needs to get back.  He could do that pretty well for a stretch, but it has been catching up to him over the last few games.

The nice thing however, is that if one, or both of the Oneals are back, his minutes will be less that he will be able to maintain that level of hustle for the time he is out there.  So, I think it is not much of a leap to think that he will be able to play similarly to how he did those first few games once the playoffs come around and he is playing 10-15 minutes max (even if only one of them are back, there will really only be about 30-35 minutes of Center time between the real centers, since they will want KG and Davis/Green playing together for a decent number of minutes) off the bench against other bench players.  

[greenpride32]

I think when he first joined the team everyone was trying to get him involved.  So he got the ball early and often.  Look at his past stats; there's no doubt he can score.

But now that team has settled a bit more after the changes, he's no longer a top option on offense, nor should he be.  So his stats are down.  He's also been getting into foul trouble more often recently so less PT.

[DannyZ]

He's looked really, really slow lately.  Like Chris said, he's not covering the pick and roll well, and he's not rotating well.  If you look at his +/- the past several games, he's much lower than the rest of the starters and Big Baby is much higher.  I think the C's should consider starting BBD to avoid these ultra slow starts.

[LB3533]

Our offensive slow starts are not because of Kristic...it is because either Paul or Ray or both have had subpar opening quarters.

Defensively, our starters, as a whole unit have not brought the defensive mentality that we know they are capable of bringing.

[EJPLAYA]

He's looked really, really slow lately.  Like Chris said, he's not covering the pick and roll well, and he's not rotating well.  If you look at his +/- the past several games, he's much lower than the rest of the starters and Big Baby is much higher.  I think the C's should consider starting BBD to avoid these ultra slow starts.

The worst thing you could do IMO is to put BBD in the starting lineup. The ball stops with him catching it and disrupts the starters flow. He is a much better player off the bench when he can come in with energy and is looked to for more offense. Even then he should be getting it in Greens hands more often and shooting less of those 18 footers he loves so much. He needs to work harder on setting screens and offensive rebounding and less shooting from the outside.


Kristic definitely is playing slower but as was said before the starters are looking for him less. He is a really good offensive player and we ought to be looking for him when others are struggling. As a starter he can be pulled if he isn't playing at the level Doc needs him to. Until Shaq comes back that is where he should be. Once Shaq and/or JO get back it will be interesting to see if Kristic or BBD get the bulk of those minutes.

[guava_wrench]

Considering Krstic was replacing Perk, it is possible teams needed time to adjust. They were used to putting less effort into defending Perk.

Correct me if I am mistaken, but I remember most of Kristic's scoring being in first quarters. It seems like teams have been adjusting.

[2short]

As someone stated we were going to him when the trade first happened AND he responded nicely.  He is doing a nice job on defensive rotations and boxing out.  He can hit jumpers and free throws.
what more can we ask?

[Roy H.]

He is doing a nice job on defensive rotations and boxing out.  He can hit jumpers and free throws.
what more can we ask?

I disagree with the bolded part above.  From my observations, his defensive rotations have largely been terrible, and in terms of defensive rebounding, he is very, very bad (similar to how he was very, very bad at that skill in OKC).  Krstic had two monster rebounding games, and in every other game with the Celts he's had five defensive boards or fewer.   

Krstic is what he is:  a decent offensive player, a good offensive rebounder, and a poor defender and very poor defensive rebounder. 

[pearljammer10]

Kristic is still playing well but he isnt getting as many minutes sense big baby has made his way back into the rotation after missing those few games. I still like what Kristic gives us but Im not so sure how many minutes he'll be granted if and when the Oneal's both come back.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

Our offensive slow starts are not because of Kristic...it is because either Paul or Ray or both have had subpar opening quarters.

Krstic has upset the flow of the 1st unit.  At first, it wasn't as noticeable, because the starters were making it a priority to look for him and Krstic was playing off adrenaline.  But as they were doing that, the overall execution of that unit was way off, and so while Krstic was playing over his head, the rest of the starting lineup was playing terribly.  

The reason the execution suffered with Krstic is two-fold: first, he doesn't have a good feel for the nuances of our system, meaning we weren't running plays as smoothly and often weren't able to get to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th options.  Second, Krstic's not really good at the little things--like setting screens and rotating properly.  The reason Perk thrived in the starting lineup is because he was a master of the little things--and it's no wonder that his departure meant the Cs started missing those things.

It's hardly been a coincidence that the Cs have played their best since the trade with Baby at center.  While Baby isn't at Perk's level, Baby's at his best when he's setting screens and making rotations on defense--the very same things we need at the center spot to make the offense and defense hum.  Sure, Ray and Paul have been on cold streaks since the trade, but to me that's more because their looks haven't been as good, and their looks haven't been as good because the quality of picks they're getting hasn't been as good.  Taking the NO game as a microcosm, the real reason we turned that game around was because Baby replaced Krstic early in the 3rd, and we magically started playing defense and executing on offense. And if you look closely at all of Ray's shots in that 2nd half, all but one of them came from Baby picks, none more impressive than the WIDE OPEN 3 Ray hit coming out of a timeout when the Cs had just 1 second on the shot clock.  The reason Ray was wide open was because Baby set a monster pick on Bellinelli--one of those little things that Krstic either can't (because of a lack of familiarity) or won't do right now.

Defensively, our starters, as a whole unit have not brought the defensive mentality that we know they are capable of bringing.

If one link of the chain is WEAK, that chain will break.  Krstic's the weak link right now, and assuming Shaq gets back and stays healthy you can expect that Krstic will be nothing more than a bit player in the playoffs.

[barefacedmonk]

TP Salmon...nice post.

[Prof. Clutch]

He, like all the new guys, will be continuing to adjust on the fly.   I expect we'll see both good and bad showings from him during that time.  You can see instances of his unfamiliarity (like last night where on one play Ray went over and physically grabbed him to put him in the correct defensive position) although I think he's done a magnificent job for the most part covering up that he's new to the system.

[footey]

 

The nice thing however, is that if one, or both of the Oneals are back, his minutes will be less that he will be able to maintain that level of hustle for the time he is out there.  So, I think it is not much of a leap to think that he will be able to play similarly to how he did those first few games once the playoffs come around and he is playing 10-15 minutes max (even if only one of them are back, there will really only be about 30-35 minutes of Center time between the real centers, since they will want KG and Davis/Green playing together for a decent number of minutes) off the bench against other bench players.  

Great point. Let us only hope.