Krstic regressing to the mean

[Chris]

Our offensive slow starts are not because of Kristic...it is because either Paul or Ray or both have had subpar opening quarters.

Krstic has upset the flow of the 1st unit.  At first, it wasn't as noticeable, because the starters were making it a priority to look for him and Krstic was playing off adrenaline.  But as they were doing that, the overall execution of that unit was way off, and so while Krstic was playing over his head, the rest of the starting lineup was playing terribly.  

The reason the execution suffered with Krstic is two-fold: first, he doesn't have a good feel for the nuances of our system, meaning we weren't running plays as smoothly and often weren't able to get to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th options.  Second, Krstic's not really good at the little things--like setting screens and rotating properly.  The reason Perk thrived in the starting lineup is because he was a master of the little things--and it's no wonder that his departure meant the Cs started missing those things.

It's hardly been a coincidence that the Cs have played their best since the trade with Baby at center.  While Baby isn't at Perk's level, Baby's at his best when he's setting screens and making rotations on defense--the very same things we need at the center spot to make the offense and defense hum.  Sure, Ray and Paul have been on cold streaks since the trade, but to me that's more because their looks haven't been as good, and their looks haven't been as good because the quality of picks they're getting hasn't been as good.  Taking the NO game as a microcosm, the real reason we turned that game around was because Baby replaced Krstic early in the 3rd, and we magically started playing defense and executing on offense. And if you look closely at all of Ray's shots in that 2nd half, all but one of them came from Baby picks, none more impressive than the WIDE OPEN 3 Ray hit coming out of a timeout when the Cs had just 1 second on the shot clock.  The reason Ray was wide open was because Baby set a monster pick on Bellinelli--one of those little things that Krstic either can't (because of a lack of familiarity) or won't do right now.

Defensively, our starters, as a whole unit have not brought the defensive mentality that we know they are capable of bringing.

If one link of the chain is WEAK, that chain will break.  Krstic's the weak link right now, and assuming Shaq gets back and stays healthy you can expect that Krstic will be nothing more than a bit player in the playoffs.

While I think you are overstating the case a bit, and underplaying the lack of focus by the starters (we have seen similar stretches in the past around this time of year), I agree that this has been at least part of the issue.

Krstic really hasn't fit in nearly as well into the offense now that his energy level has dropped a bit, and he is not able to beat everyone up the court.  

In particular I have noticed that his spacing has not always been great, and he spends too much time looking for position for the rebound (which clogs the lane), and not enough time setting back picks.  And defensively, where he was doing a good job at first of blitzing and racing back, he has slowed down by a step or two (he was playing a lot of minutes for while there), and has not adjusted to not blitz as far, so he can get back.  

I do think a big part of this is still learning the system though, and I think he will continue to get better as gets more comfortable, and learns to fit in a little better...and especially once he is moved to the second team, where he can do more against lesser players, and won't be exploited as much.  

[GreenEnvy]

He exceeded expectations early on, but if all goes according to plan, he won't even log minutes in the playoffs with the O'Neal's and BBD.

He should only get better the more he practices with the C's (and playing against other teams' reserve bigs will make life easier for him).


He's about as good a C as Nate was a PG for us.

[Dunn]

I hated hearing fans had issues with Semih's defense because it never effected the performance of his other four teammates to the point C's were in deficits like we get into now with KRS. I liked Semih thinking he'd eventually learn to play even though he was a rookie and would have his shoulder healed someday. Erden just had better foot speed to rotate and fastbreak more than KRS, but he's gone. Although Doc has been seen ripping into Nenad, I think playing with Baby should help him hopefully. Personally, I thought Semih played way better with the 1st unit than Baby did.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Z_WqbddDh4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zhCMx43emw&hd=1

[jdpapa3]

If one link of the chain is WEAK, that chain will break.  

I don't know if I can agree with that. The team was absolutely dominant on both sides of the court with Nate Robinson filling in for Rondo earlier in the year. The efficiency differentials were astounding. The issues lately have been the team's energy in the dog days of the season, Rondo not attacking the rim, and a ramp up in back to backs. The three are intertwined.

Krstic is not a good team defender, but pretty good in post up defense. Just doesn't have the length or quickness to really alter shots. His offensive rebounding has been a pleasant surprise and it's good to see that he did fit in well on offense when the team was rolling, but he needs to be the backup to Shaq or JO or we ain't winning the thing. Looking at the lineup performance, he sticks out like a sore thumb, but I think that's a little unfair as his usage in the starting lineup coincides right with Rondo's slump or injury or whatever. I don't think Rondo's slump can be tied to Nenad's arrival. Their games are a good fit, imo.

[Kuberski1]

I think Krstic has done as well as expected on the defensive end.  This does not mean he has done well, but they had to know that going into the trade.  They likely surmised that with the 25 games or so he would play, he would get enough of the system to be adequate.  I think that will happen.

I like the point about Krstic about being a better center than Nate was a point.  Nate was downright horrid at times...had he been part of the PO rotation, we would have been in trouble.  On the other hand, we will be OK if Krstic plays as #2 or #3 on the depth chart.

Having Green will help a lot in the POs IMO.  He, Paul, and Ray  should rotate at 2/3, with Green sliding to 4 on occasion. That's a great rotation - not only is he like Posey, he's better IMO.  Plus, Green poses match-up problems.

The point has been made that we need Shaq and even perhaps JO to win #18.  I think this would have been the case even without the trade.  Would a front-court rotation of Perk, KG, Baby, and perhaps Murphy wouldn't have got the job done?  To boot, we would have been in trouble backing up Pierce and maybe Ray.

Let's hope Green/K gel as fast as possible, and the O'Neal twins get their aged bodies back on the court...

[2short]

He is doing a nice job on defensive rotations and boxing out.  He can hit jumpers and free throws.
what more can we ask?

I disagree with the bolded part above.  From my observations, his defensive rotations have largely been terrible, and in terms of defensive rebounding, he is very, very bad (similar to how he was very, very bad at that skill in OKC).  Krstic had two monster rebounding games, and in every other game with the Celts he's had five defensive boards or fewer.   

Krstic is what he is:  a decent offensive player, a good offensive rebounder, and a poor defender and very poor defensive rebounder. 

i double disagree with you, he moves his feet better than perk on rotations and BOXES out, I didn't say he's eating up the defensive boards but he bodies up his man nicely leaving better rebounding opportunities for kg and pp

[dtrader]

As much as the first 6 games he played for us weren't enough to determine what krstic's mean value was, the last 4 also aren't enough to determine whether or not he has meaningfully moved from it.  The only things that can clearly be drawn, is that his playing time has been reduced by 10mins, and his shots have been cut from 9 per game, to 4.

He's been in the league 8+ years, and played for multiple teams already. I highly doubt his early production was due to increased adrenaline, or him trying to prove something. The fact is, he's been less involved, and his production has fallen as a result.  One of the next few games, I expect he'll have a big impact.

[Roy H.]

As much as the first 6 games he played for us weren't enough to determine what krstic's mean value was, the last 4 also aren't enough to determine whether or not he has meaningfully moved from it.  The only things that can clearly be drawn, is that his playing time has been reduced by 10mins, and his shots have been cut from 9 per game, to 4.

He's been in the league 8+ years, and played for multiple teams already. I highly doubt his early production was due to increased adrenaline, or him trying to prove something. The fact is, he's been less involved, and his production has fallen as a result.  One of the next few games, I expect he'll have a big impact.

At the same time, Krstic was producing at a level that he hadn't previously done in that 8 year career.  It was never realistic to expect him to sustain double-double production, and yet some were predicting he would.

[dtrader]

Well, if you took the average of the best 7 games krstic played for us (feb28-mar13), I think his averages would be around 15/8 in 30mins/game. His best years in NJ, he did about the same, and as a center he should be entering his peak now around age 27. I think if he was the full time starter, that's about what he would contribute. 

The biggest thing to me, is adapting him to a lesser role (ie what he's seen since BBD returned). I think it's more about how the coaches/players integrate him, than it is about his play regressing.

[wdleehi]

Well, if you took the average of the best 7 games krstic played for us (feb28-mar13), I think his averages would be around 15/8 in 30mins/game. His best years in NJ, he did about the same, and as a center he should be entering his peak now around age 27. I think if he was the full time starter, that's about what he would contribute. 

The biggest thing to me, is adapting him to a lesser role (ie what he's seen since BBD returned). I think it's more about how the coaches/players integrate him, than it is about his play regressing.

What are his averages in the other game?

[dtrader]

Well, if you took the average of the best 7 games krstic played for us (feb28-mar13), I think his averages would be around 15/8 in 30mins/game. His best years in NJ, he did about the same, and as a center he should be entering his peak now around age 27. I think if he was the full time starter, that's about what he would contribute. 

The biggest thing to me, is adapting him to a lesser role (ie what he's seen since BBD returned). I think it's more about how the coaches/players integrate him, than it is about his play regressing.

What are his averages in the other game?

If you mean the games he's played for us, outside of the span of his best 7 games, his averages are around 7/5. Since I was responding to a statement about his top production over his career, I thought it made sense to isolate his best period with us to make the comparison.

[droopdog7]

Well, he seems have gone well below the mean now. Krstic playing positvely awful right now.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Yep, bad game. But answer me this, why the heck are they posting Krstic up? It makes zero sense. He's a pick-and-pop player. Use him as such. And for that matter, if he's having trouble down low today, why keep going to him there? Seriously, he's having a bad game, but I'm scratching my head on the decision making all around.

[winsomme]

Yep, bad game. But answer me this, why the heck are they posting Krstic up? It makes zero sense. He's a pick-and-pop player. Use him as such. And for that matter, if he's having trouble down low today, why keep going to him there? Seriously, he's having a bad game, but I'm scratching my head on the decision making all around.

because that's what you need out of you center. right now we are getting too few post up looks. people underrated that aspect of Perk's game.

we got sold this idea that we needed a big that could clear out the middle with a mid-range game, but what we actually need is a big who you can dump the ball into and do some work down there.

there just were so many "ideas" that were fundamentally wrong with the Perk trade and now we are seeing them up close.

[Roy H.]

This shouldn't really surprise people; if he was capable of consistently giving us 15/8, or whatever his early stats were, he'd be making $10 million per season.