San Antonio vs Memphis would be one heck of a first round series.
That could be a close battle. Big advantage for San An in the backcourt positions but Memphis have a nice advantage at both forward spots plus the battle at center could be fairly even. George Hill and OJ Mayo off the bench. No other difference makers off either team's bench. That would be an interesting series.
Are you considering Duncan a PF or a C here? Because either way, that's advantage SA no matter how you look at it. I don't care what Duncan's #'s are this season or that he's 34 years old. This is Tim Duncan and the playoffs we're talking about. Duncan's #'s are higher in every postseason compared to his regular season for the past 5 seasons; he is coasting right now while only averaging less than 30 min per game.
Center ... I don't know, Marc Gasol is pretty good.
I do agree that Duncan's impact is a lot higher than his numbers suggest + I do agree that he is capable of producing at a much higher level (18/10) than he is currently doing (13/8) if San Antonio ran more of their offense through him.
Ordinarily I would give him the matchup advantage because of those two reasons ... but Marc Gasol is a pretty good matchup for him. Good size (7-0, 260lbs, strong) and good defender against a guy like Duncan. Poses enough of an offensive threat to keep Duncan occupied defensively. Not the rebounder Timmy is but I am not sure that is enough.
I don't know, maybe Duncan does have the matchup advantage here ... but I am not wholly convinced of it. I think Gasol may be able to hold his own here.