Hoping that the team you trade Brady to falls completely apart so you have a chance at Luck is a complete crapshoot.
I can't imagine a world where a healthy Brady or Manning QB a team to the worst record in the league. It wouldnt happen.
I was going to let him come to that conclusion on his own...
Hoping that a qb draft pick that BB likes that's not a top pick turns into a franchise qb is also a crapshoot.
Every qb that get picked highly gets picked in that spot because they might turn out to be a franchise qb. The hit rate is pretty low.
so are these scenarios unpredictable or highly unlikely.....because you called them both "crapshoots"
Some are less likely than others. There's also the possibility that I called them "crapshoots" based on a previous comment of yours.
What's the point of all this? Are we supposed to agree on a definition of crapshoot and then go back 7-8 pages in the discussion and start over?
you said you knew crapshoot to mean unpredictable and were using it that way....but then used it to describe scenarios that you identified as being unlikely to work out in our favor. It just seems inconsistent and doesn't really support your claim that you were using crapshoot to identify scenarios that were unpredictable.
My posts were responses to what you wrote. If you were using it in a certain context then I might have continued with that context for the sake of the argument. Or I might have used "complete crapshoot" to mean "crapshoot at best". I'd have to go back and read more than one comment taken out of an entire discussion. I do recall saying that neither of us had any way of predicting how well a 1st round qb BB took would turn out as he hasn't selected a qb in the 1st round before. I still don't see the point of pursuing this.
just pointing out the discrepancy in your reasoning where you said there was none.
I was arguing that certain things were not "crapshoots". You were arguing that they were. You later claimed that you were using "crapshoot" to mean unpredictable (which is the dictionary definition) but it does not appear to be the case that that is how you were using crapshoot.
just clearing up how this back and forth got off track...
It still got off track because of your confusion about what a crapshoot is.
There are degrees of everything. If something's unlikely it's still much more of a possibility than something that's extremely unlikely or something that you have no reasonable expectation will happen. Likewise a "total crapshoot" or "complete crapshoot" would be riskier than a typical crapshoot, much like "that was lucky" and "that was pure luck" have somewhat different meanings.
So "the team you trade Brady to falls completely apart" is less likely (IMO) than "qb draft pick that BB likes that's not a top pick turns into a franchise qb". But considering Brady's age and possible injuries, I wouldn't say that it was unreasonable to assume it was a possible outcome. The problem was your scenarios bundle together multiple crapshoots and thus become more unlikely than any individual part.
By the way, looking over a few of my old posts I said "close to 50-50", which could be somewhat above 50%, and I said I was giving a rough estimate of an upper limit. So if the odds of something happening isn't too much higher than a number that's fairly close to 50 then it would fit my definition.
