All I know is it is difficult to discuss whether or not something is a crapshoot when I don't know what constitutes a crapshoot for you.
and "anything 50/50 and below" is really still too broad a range.
anyway, I think Belichick has acquitted himself well with his first round picks. So as I've said, if he thought he could get a franchise QB in this draft with Locker or Mallett I would take it out of the "crapshoot" category...
Haha. Not only did you bring up the word crapshoot in the discussion, but you gave it a reasonable definition when you did. Discussions like this are littered with words like possible or probably or likely that don't have set definitions. There's no way either of us have any idea how likely it is that BB could recognize a franchise qb in the first round. I wouldn't trade an MVP caliber for that random chance but clearly you would.
It started to seem during the discussion that you were being very liberal in the way you applied the term "crapshoot" so I asked you to identify its meaning for yourself.
as I suspected, you have a very broad range for it in terms of what "likelihoods" fall under its umbrella.
The reasonable definition for "crapshoot" IMO is in the "highly unlikely" neighborhood.
Ok, the easy way to solve this is to go to a dictionary website:
Definition of CRAPSHOOT
: something (as a business venture) that has an unpredictable outcome
or:
1.
Informal . anything unpredictable, risky, or problematical; gamble.
Neither of these say anything that resembles "highly unlikely". My "liberal" application of the word seems to be appropriate.
and now neither of us can assess likelihood? You've spent this whole thread telling me how unlikely all of this is relating to trading Brady and any successful plans at trying to replace him.
Clearly neither of us can say with any certainty that qb that BB drafts in the 1st round will become a franchise player. He has no history of doing so in the past and most qbs drafted in the top round don't come close to approaching the level of success you're looking for. Not to mention that there's no guarantee that such a player won't be drafted before the Pats pick.
If BB says he believes he has a franchise QB at #16 in this draft, it's not random. It would be based on his scouting of the player. The thing that would make it not "highly unlikely" (ie "crapshoot") that he is right would be his track record in assessing talent in the first round which as I've pointed out is quite good.
Everyone that drafts a qb in the first round scouts that player. Every team that drafts a qb in the first round expects that qb to become a productive starter. That doesn't seem to increase the likelihood of it happening.
and again, you wouldn't be trading Brady for this chance. You'd be trading Brady because another team offered a terrific package to get him...
A terrific package would be a couple of top level players and some draft picks, but not a top-flite quarterback. Such a trade would lessen the Pat's chances to win the title without a suitable replacement for Brady, an MVP-level qb.
that being the case, everything is a crapshoot because sports by its very nature is unpredictable.
Yes, everything is a risk. You have to manage those risks and go with the ones that give you the best chance to win.
Look at Sunday's game. We have our MVP QB, that you would never even think of trading unless you had a lock for another MVP-level QB, running a 14-2 team with home field advantage through the playoffs playing a team they demolished only weeks before and what does that buy you? A CRAPSHOOT.
Sure, but having the "Brady as a qb" crapshoot has resulted in multiple super bowls. Look at all of the teams that were watching the games on tv instead of playing last weekend. Trade Brady and you could be joining them for years to come.
So, if it's all a crapshoot then, why not trade Brady (playing devil's advocate)?
Trading Brady is a crapshoot and keeping Brady is a crapshoot, right?
I'm not sure if you're ranting at me or if you're simply upset that the word crapshoot doesn't have a precise and specific likelihood attached to it. Yes, trading or not trading Brady both carry risks. You have to pick which one increases your likelihood to contend, assuming that's your goal.
I think we both know that "crapshoot" has a negative connotation, but if you want to apply it to any situation without attaching any degree of risk to it, then maybe we should just not use it because it does not appear to be helpful in this discussion.
No, the one of us who thinks that "crapshoot" means highly unlikely to occur thinks it has a negative connotation.
also, if we aren' able as fans to assess degrees of likelihood for things that by their nature are unpredictable then sports blogging wouldn't exist. That's what we do here. I mean, even in the part where you say we can't guage likelihood that a BB QB pick would pan out you immediately do just that...
Ok, assess away.
If the Patriots trade Brady to another team, what are the odds that the team with Brady will finish with a bottom 5 draft pick?
If the Patriots do get a bottom 5 pick (say 3-5) what are the odds that Luck will be available when he picks?
If Luck is picked by the Patriots, what are the odds that he will be a franchise qb?
If the Pats pick 16 or so and see a possible franchise qb in the draft, what are the odds that none of the 15 teams above them will draft him?
If the Pats do choose such a player, what are the odds that he will develop into a franchise qb?
Your ideas to replace Brady through the draft seem to rely on multiple "crapshoots" working out in the Pats favor. I think that there are too many variables that any gm would trade Brady for something that unlikely.
I guess as often as I have to disagree with this point. No team would ever trade a qb like Brady unless they had a pretty lock solid way to replace him. That means like a Steve Young on their roster, not pinning their hopes to any of A) the team that drafts Brady doing poorly enough to yield a good draft pick, B) no team drafting before you picking the qb that you want, or C) drafting a rookie qb and expecting them to become a franchise qb. You're depending on at least two of these events and likely all three. All of them are crapshoots.
So the question is how often are you going to misrepresent my position on whether I would personally trade Brady in order to make that point that no team would ever do it....
I'm not misrepresenting your position. Your position is that trading Brady for a couple of players and a draft pick or two that would hopefully bring in a suitable replacement for Brady is not an outrageous idea. I disagree, and I was doing so by explaining that no team would trade away a franchise qb with such a nebulous plan to replace him.
