Contest: Looks like Melo is headed out of Denver. Whats the deal? (Merged)

[footey]

With all the leverage the Knicks have, I can't see them giving up that much.

Chandler and a draft pick

You're probably right.

[housecall]

I say Denver wants their pg Felton for the future...they will send their backup pg.with Melo.(I will add some others later.)   

Over Lawson?  (who is playing 24 minutes a game as a backup PG behind Billups)

Yeah, Felton is 26 years old and in a hyper-uptempo system where he is the primary ball handler.

Last season when Felton was in more of a slow down time share with Stephen Jackson (as Lawson is with Billups/Anthony/Smith) Lawson was arguably the better player.

Still, I'd like to see the full deal you come up with that has Lawson going to NY and Felton going to Denver. With the money complications it would be pretty interesting.

EDIT: The Per-36 minutes numbers for Lawson 2010-11 and Felton 2009-10:

Lawson: 14.8 pts, 6.1 asts, 3.2 rebs, 49% shooting
Felton: 13.2 pts, 6.1 ast, 3.9 rebs, 46% shooting

Ty would be a better pick n roll pg for Amare&Melo.

[Jeff]

I think the Nugs call his bluff and let him become a free agent during the lockout.

They "lose him for nothing" but they'll also not be saddled with new contracts.  Nene and Billups are expiring contracts next year so if they wanted to blow it up, they could.

Imagine if the Nugs let Melo walk, then use their contracts and cap space to get CP3 and a couple of other stars or near-stars?  Ironic?

[PosImpos]

I think the Nugs call his bluff and let him become a free agent during the lockout.

They "lose him for nothing" but they'll also not be saddled with new contracts.  Nene and Billups are expiring contracts next year so if they wanted to blow it up, they could.

Imagine if the Nugs let Melo walk, then use their contracts and cap space to get CP3 and a couple of other stars or near-stars?  Ironic?

Why do you think CP3 would go to Denver after Melo just left?  Just because a team has cap space doesn't mean they can use it.  Just look at Houston, or Sacramento, or Minnesota, or any number of other teams this last summer.

When Melo leaves the Nuggets, they're going to become a far less desirable destination for free agents.  With the uncertainty of the CBA coming up, it makes sense for the Nuggets to try to get as many future assets locked up for the near future as they can if Melo is going to leave them hanging.

The only realistic alternative is to totally blow it up and be terrible for a few years in order to get some high draft picks.  That's a very unreliable method.  They'd be better off trying to cultivate some assets and hope they can turn that into some better players through trades in the future.

[housecall]

I think the Nugs call his bluff and let him become a free agent during the lockout.

They "lose him for nothing" but they'll also not be saddled with new contracts.  Nene and Billups are expiring contracts next year so if they wanted to blow it up, they could.

Imagine if the Nugs let Melo walk, then use their contracts and cap space to get CP3 and a couple of other stars or near-stars?  Ironic?

I was thinking alone some of the same lines about letting him walk before they allow a player to call his own shots.I had heard something close to that a few months back but can't remember which sports show i was watching.

[indeedproceed]

I say Denver wants their pg Felton for the future...they will send their backup pg.with Melo.(I will add some others later.)   

Over Lawson?  (who is playing 24 minutes a game as a backup PG behind Billups)

Yeah, Felton is 26 years old and in a hyper-uptempo system where he is the primary ball handler.

Last season when Felton was in more of a slow down time share with Stephen Jackson (as Lawson is with Billups/Anthony/Smith) Lawson was arguably the better player.

Still, I'd like to see the full deal you come up with that has Lawson going to NY and Felton going to Denver. With the money complications it would be pretty interesting.

EDIT: The Per-36 minutes numbers for Lawson 2010-11 and Felton 2009-10:

Lawson: 14.8 pts, 6.1 asts, 3.2 rebs, 49% shooting
Felton: 13.2 pts, 6.1 ast, 3.9 rebs, 46% shooting

Ty would be a better pick n roll pg for Amare&Melo.

Maybe, but they already know for a fact they've got a guy who fits in Felton..and Lawson is a contextually tiny part of the deal. Why mess it all up trying to get him involved too?

With all the leverage the Knicks have, I can't see them giving up that much.

Chandler and a draft pick

I don't think that happens either. The Nuggets and Knicks have mutual self-assured destruction. IF Melo walks, the Nuggets have the realization that they have a crap roster and let a major asset walk away for nothing. If Denver somehow either convinces Melo to stay, or Melo pulls a LeBron and doesn't sign with NY (remember, everyone assumed LeBron was going to NY before too), then NY is shunned....TWICE.

Both teams have incentive to get a fair deal done. Getting Melo to pair with Amare legitimizes Donnie Walsh's strategy. (although I wonder about the "fit") Getting back a high potential player and picks back for Melo along with their expiring contracts immediately turns Denver into OKC version 2.0

I think the Nugs call his bluff and let him become a free agent during the lockout.

They "lose him for nothing" but they'll also not be saddled with new contracts.  Nene and Billups are expiring contracts next year so if they wanted to blow it up, they could.

Imagine if the Nugs let Melo walk, then use their contracts and cap space to get CP3 and a couple of other stars or near-stars?  Ironic?

Incredibly ironic, but unlikely I think. However, if the Knicks and whoever else keep lowballing denver, I woudl not be surprised if they let him walk.

[fairweatherfan]

Question for the salary cap guys - LeBron and Bosh were ultimately sign-and-traded by their teams, giving them a larger salary and the Cavs/Raps massive trade exceptions and draft picks.  Could the Nuggets do something similar?  If so, Melo won't be walking for nothing in either case.

Either way I don't think the Knicks give up Felton - he's looking very good for them at the moment, and I think they want time for him to gel with Amare.  And I definitely don't think the Knicks want an aging Billups running their up-tempo offense.  From their perspective, why give up their PG when they can just wait out the season and get Melo next year?  It's not like things are looking bad for them this season.  Some combo of Chandler, Gallinari, Randolph, Fields, draft picks and filler would be much more likely.

[Lucky17]

I think the Nugs call his bluff and let him become a free agent during the lockout.

They "lose him for nothing" but they'll also not be saddled with new contracts.  Nene and Billups are expiring contracts next year so if they wanted to blow it up, they could.

Imagine if the Nugs let Melo walk, then use their contracts and cap space to get CP3 and a couple of other stars or near-stars?  Ironic?

Nene's is actually a player option. Would he leave $11 million on the table? I doubt it.

Likewise, Denver has a team option on Billups' contract (at $14.5 mil). Doubtful they would bring him back if they are rebuilding.

The only other players Denver has under contract next year are Ty Lawson, Al Harrington, Chris Andersen, and Renaldo Balkman. They also can offer Arron Afflalo a qualifying offer of $2.9 mil to keep him (can't see how they wouldn't).

So, if Denver lets Melo walk, they likely have the following lineup, at just under $29 million:

Lawson
Afflalo
Balkman
Harrington
Nene/Andersen

Difficult to know exactly how much cap space they would have to sign free agents. But it would easily be north of $20 million, perhaps even in excess of $25 million.

[Lucky17]

Question for the salary cap guys - LeBron and Bosh were ultimately sign-and-traded by their teams, giving them a larger salary and the Cavs/Raps massive trade exceptions and draft picks.  Could the Nuggets do something similar?  If so, Melo won't be walking for nothing in either case.

Only to a team with enough cap space (after the early July moratorium) to absorb Melo's new deal.

And depending on the new CBA dictating cap numbers and possible new trade rules, New York is not assured of having enough cap room to do so. Hoopshype projects their payroll numbers for next year to be around $42 million.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm

I believe they would need to renounce the rights to Chandler, decline an option on Bill Walker, and possibly still need to cut payroll via trades to do it.

[indeedproceed]

Question for the salary cap guys - LeBron and Bosh were ultimately sign-and-traded by their teams, giving them a larger salary and the Cavs/Raps massive trade exceptions and draft picks.  Could the Nuggets do something similar?  If so, Melo won't be walking for nothing in either case.

Only to a team with enough cap space (after the early July moratorium) to absorb Melo's new deal.

And depending on the new CBA dictating cap numbers and possible new trade rules, New York is not assured of having enough cap room to do so. Hoopshype projects their payroll numbers for next year to be around $42 million.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm

I believe they would need to renounce the rights to Chandler, decline an option on Bill Walker, and possibly still need to cut payroll via trades to do it.

Which of course they'd do. And, Denver would likely look to sign Chandler in that setting..the only difference being they would not have any Bird rights, and probably wouldn't get him.

[Jeff]

good points all around - I obviously didn't research this - just tossing it out there

[Lucky17]

I asked Chris Sheridan about the Knicks signing Melo as a FA. Here's his response (which isn't much of a response, actually):

JB (PDX): So, assuming the "Knicks-only" scenario is true, what happens if Denver holds Melo past the deadline? Will the Knicks have enough cap space during the off-season to sign Melo outright?

Chris Sheridan  (2:17 PM): I am glad you brought this up, JB, because it gets interesting. ...

Chris Sheridan  (2:20 PM): Carmelo is under contract through next season, but he has an opt-out (actually an ETO, basically the same thing). So Carmelo is not considered an expiring contract, and he remains tradeable right up until June 30 if the Nuggets hang onto him past the deadline. Also, the extension that's sitting on the table is good through June 30, too. This is a piece of leverage the Nuggets hold over the Knicks, because NY needs to make the trade by Feb. 24 in order to include Eddy Curry's expiring contract in the deal. And you need the Curry money to make the salaries match.

[indeedproceed]

I asked Chris Sheridan about the Knicks signing Melo as a FA. Here's his response (which isn't much of a response, actually):

JB (PDX): So, assuming the "Knicks-only" scenario is true, what happens if Denver holds Melo past the deadline? Will the Knicks have enough cap space during the off-season to sign Melo outright?

Chris Sheridan  (2:17 PM): I am glad you brought this up, JB, because it gets interesting. ...

Chris Sheridan  (2:20 PM): Carmelo is under contract through next season, but he has an opt-out (actually an ETO, basically the same thing). So Carmelo is not considered an expiring contract, and he remains tradeable right up until June 30 if the Nuggets hang onto him past the deadline. Also, the extension that's sitting on the table is good through June 30, too. This is a piece of leverage the Nuggets hold over the Knicks, because NY needs to make the trade by Feb. 24 in order to include Eddy Curry's expiring contract in the deal. And you need the Curry money to make the salaries match.

Oh wow. Denver has more leverage than one would think.

[fairweatherfan]

Question for the salary cap guys - LeBron and Bosh were ultimately sign-and-traded by their teams, giving them a larger salary and the Cavs/Raps massive trade exceptions and draft picks.  Could the Nuggets do something similar?  If so, Melo won't be walking for nothing in either case.

Only to a team with enough cap space (after the early July moratorium) to absorb Melo's new deal.

And depending on the new CBA dictating cap numbers and possible new trade rules, New York is not assured of having enough cap room to do so. Hoopshype projects their payroll numbers for next year to be around $42 million.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm

I believe they would need to renounce the rights to Chandler, decline an option on Bill Walker, and possibly still need to cut payroll via trades to do it.

Thanks Lucky, TP.

This is a really odd case given that Carmelo is sitting on Schrodinger's contract where he may or may not be signed for next year depending on which works best for whatever deal gets put together.  So Denver could trade him midseason, or trade him in the offseason as a signed player, or he could opt out and sign as an FA (if the Knicks make room) or he could opt out and Denver could sign-and-trade him...it's mind-bending even by NBA salary cap standards. 

Given all that, I think my official stance will be to not think too hard about this and just see what winds up happening 

[Lucky17]

I asked Chris Sheridan about the Knicks signing Melo as a FA. Here's his response (which isn't much of a response, actually):

JB (PDX): So, assuming the "Knicks-only" scenario is true, what happens if Denver holds Melo past the deadline? Will the Knicks have enough cap space during the off-season to sign Melo outright?

Chris Sheridan  (2:17 PM): I am glad you brought this up, JB, because it gets interesting. ...

Chris Sheridan  (2:20 PM): Carmelo is under contract through next season, but he has an opt-out (actually an ETO, basically the same thing). So Carmelo is not considered an expiring contract, and he remains tradeable right up until June 30 if the Nuggets hang onto him past the deadline. Also, the extension that's sitting on the table is good through June 30, too. This is a piece of leverage the Nuggets hold over the Knicks, because NY needs to make the trade by Feb. 24 in order to include Eddy Curry's expiring contract in the deal. And you need the Curry money to make the salaries match.

Oh wow. Denver has more leverage than one would think.

Yeah. It's possible they could play chicken all season long.