Rondo and MVP Watch

[PosImpos]

I'm more surprised that Glen Davis isn't among the five players mentioned for sixth man of the year. His numbers are right around all the players they mention. The following links show them side by side.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=dUQIQ

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=rHnnG

His PER and points per 36 minutes numbers are significantly lower than the other players, along with free throw attempts and free throw percentage.  The only area he really stands out is in rebounds, and that's primarily because he's a front court player and they are not.

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

[2short]

I'm surprised to see Noah ahead of KG on their list. Defense is more than rebounds....

Yeah.  Not everyone is heavy into "advanced stats", I get that, but you don't even have to look that deep to see the chasm-like difference on defense between KG and Noah so far this year. 

Bulls: 104.3 points/100 possessions (9th in NBA)
Bulls defense actually 8.4 points better/100 possessions without Noah through 20 games

Celtics: 99.7 points/100 possessions (1st in NBA)
Celtics defense a whopping 9.9 points worse/100 possessions without KG through 20 games

I'm actually a big Noah guy, but this isn't close.  At the quarter pole, DPoY should be a 2 horse race between KG and Dwight Howard.

Media is still too in love with flawed stats like rpg, spg, and bpg.  Really hard to win DPOY when you're not very near the top of the league in rebounds and getting a couple highlight blocks a game as well as a steal or two - even if the impact you make on your team's defense is enormous (as KG's is).

agree KGs importance to the team defensive scheme CANNOT be measured,his ability to cover ground, block shots and get steals is amazing
he works more at defense than howard and it isn't even close, kg can still shut down to the point of embarasing his opponent, a true lock down defender, I don't think you'd say that about howard or noah (who is kind of like a little kg with his work effort and coverage)
oh if he was a celtic in his prime   , not that his post prime that we've seen is bad

[kozlodoev]

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

This isn't, and has never been a criterion. Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili won the 6th man award fter playing 31 minutes per game, and Jason Terry played logged 33 mpg in his winning year.

[kozlodoev]

I'm surprised to see Noah ahead of KG on their list. Defense is more than rebounds....

Yeah.  Not everyone is heavy into "advanced stats", I get that, but you don't even have to look that deep to see the chasm-like difference on defense between KG and Noah so far this year. 

Bulls: 104.3 points/100 possessions (9th in NBA)
Bulls defense actually 8.4 points better/100 possessions without Noah through 20 games

Celtics: 99.7 points/100 possessions (1st in NBA)
Celtics defense a whopping 9.9 points worse/100 possessions without KG through 20 games

I'm actually a big Noah guy, but this isn't close.  At the quarter pole, DPoY should be a 2 horse race between KG and Dwight Howard.

Media is still too in love with flawed stats like rpg, spg, and bpg.  Really hard to win DPOY when you're not very near the top of the league in rebounds and getting a couple highlight blocks a game as well as a steal or two - even if the impact you make on your team's defense is enormous (as KG's is).

agree KGs importance to the team defensive scheme CANNOT be measured,his ability to cover ground, block shots and get steals is amazing
he works more at defense than howard and it isn't even close, kg can still shut down to the point of embarasing his opponent, a true lock down defender, I don't think you'd say that about howard or noah (who is kind of like a little kg with his work effort and coverage)
oh if he was a celtic in his prime   , not that his post prime that we've seen is bad

Ball Don't Lie agrees with you both!

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/BDL-s-Award-Tour-First-Quarter-Edition;_ylt=AsQcI07kbvP6zQx5l3VvsJW8vLYF?urn=nba-293310

[PosImpos]

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

This isn't, and has never been a criterion. Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili won the 6th man award fter playing 31 minutes per game, and Jason Terry played logged 33 mpg in his winning year.

Fair enough.  But his minutes are a fair point given that there are other players on the list - Miles and Brown in particular - who are putting are similar or better numbers in 2/3 as many minutes.

[Fafnir]

I'm more surprised that Glen Davis isn't among the five players mentioned for sixth man of the year. His numbers are right around all the players they mention. The following links show them side by side.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=dUQIQ

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=rHnnG

His PER and points per 36 minutes numbers are significantly lower than the other players, along with free throw attempts and free throw percentage.  The only area he really stands out is in rebounds, and that's primarily because he's a front court player and they are not.

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

Of the potential 6th man of the year two play just as many minutes and Charlie V is close with 26.

Most 6th man of the years play starter minutes, they just come off the bench.

[Fafnir]

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

This isn't, and has never been a criterion. Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili won the 6th man award fter playing 31 minutes per game, and Jason Terry played logged 33 mpg in his winning year.

Fair enough.  But his minutes are a fair point given that there are other players on the list - Miles and Brown in particular - who are putting are similar or better numbers in 2/3 as many minutes.

They certainly shoot more often than he does, which is the best way to get recognition in the NBA. CJ isn't even scoring at a better rate than Davis, he just chucks.

[PosImpos]

I'm more surprised that Glen Davis isn't among the five players mentioned for sixth man of the year. His numbers are right around all the players they mention. The following links show them side by side.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=dUQIQ

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=rHnnG

His PER and points per 36 minutes numbers are significantly lower than the other players, along with free throw attempts and free throw percentage.  The only area he really stands out is in rebounds, and that's primarily because he's a front court player and they are not.

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

Of the potential 6th man of the year two play just as many minutes and Charlie V is close with 26.

Most 6th man of the years play starter minutes, they just come off the bench.

Alright, we'll agree that playing close to starters minutes doesn't preclude Davis.  

What's important, though, is that his numbers would be very good (and perhaps award worthy) for a player getting 20 minutes or so per game.  Not so much for a player averaging around 30 minutes.

I think the bottom line - and this applies to MVP as well as 6th man - is that our spread-it-around team offense really prevents any one player from standing out on that end of the court to a great enough extent to warrant the attention necessary to receive one of those awards.

KG has a shot at DPOY (but not a great one) because he is quite noticeably the centerpiece of our defense, and individual stats matter a little bit less for that award.

Also, BBD is practically playing starter minutes...he's on the edge of not really qualifying for 6th man of the year since he almost plays 30 mpg.

This isn't, and has never been a criterion. Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili won the 6th man award fter playing 31 minutes per game, and Jason Terry played logged 33 mpg in his winning year.

Fair enough.  But his minutes are a fair point given that there are other players on the list - Miles and Brown in particular - who are putting are similar or better numbers in 2/3 as many minutes.

They certainly shoot more often than he does, which is the best way to get recognition in the NBA. CJ isn't even scoring at a better rate than Davis, he just chucks.

Miles does have a better PER, however.  I agree that his usage rate is too high for a player of his caliber, though.

Still...I really wouldn't argue that CJ Miles deserves the award, either.  So far, Jason Terry's clearly leading the pack, in my opinion. 

[Eeyore III]

The ESPN lists are just spewage: for example, they have Scola in the list for "most improved," but anyone who watches him (I'm a HUGE fan) knows that he is exactly the same player this year that he was last.  He's great, but he's the same: He rocks!  He isn't "most improved."  Ptah!  Ptui!

The true question re: Rondo, IMHO, is whether he is, in the Elrod Enchilada analytic sense, a top 5 player in the league.  In my opinion, he is.  Rondo is one of the very best players in the league, and his main competition is Kobe.

There I said it.     LBJ and DWade?  Afterthoughts.

[Fafnir]

Miles does have a better PER, however.  I agree that his usage rate is too high for a player of his caliber, though.

PER sucks, it rewards chuckers way too much. You can shoot poorly but still get a higher PER by taking more shots. It does correctly punish Davis for his poor rebounding however.

I don't think Davis should win either, I just think if you put CJ Miles on the list you need to have Glen Davis on it too.

Sadly PPG and how many games you start are typically the things that determine 6th man of the year. TS%, rebounds, and defense are barely considered.

[mgent]

No because there are two other point guards who are even more important to their team's success. Then factor in the sheer star power besides Rondo in the starting line up and he's not a serious MVP contender.

He's the type of player you mention, but then don't put higher than 4th on your ballot even if you are a big booster of his game.

Two?  I'd say more like four.

  More important to the success of teams that are expected to have less success than the Celts though.

Too bad that doesn't mean much in the MVP discussion.

Rose had his team barely above.500 I don't think he'll win the MVP even if they get a high seed in the east once Boozer is at full speed. Boozer will get too much credit.

I also don't consider Steve Nash a viable MVP contender anymore.

If a PG wins it will be Williams or Paul.

I don't think Paul, Williams, Rose, or Westbrook (not Nash) will win.  I just said they are all probably more important to their team's success than Rondo and carry a larger load.  That leads me to believe that unless their teams start playing horrible, they will all likely be in the discussion ahead of Rondo (according to the link 3 of them are in the top 5 while CP3 and Rondo are absent).

  MVP voting aside, it's worth pointing out that, if you consider points and assists, Rondo's generating as much offense as any of those players and is the best of the bunch on the defensive end.

I'm with you buddy.  Unfortunately PPG is everyone's favorite stat and those guys all double him.

It's like how Chris Paul spends all his time in the passing lanes instead of playing defense and he gets DPOY consideration and All-Defense first team selections because he averages like 3 steals.

[Fafnir]

The ESPN lists are just spewage: for example, they have Scola in the list for "most improved," but anyone who watches him (I'm a HUGE fan) knows that he is exactly the same player this year that he was last.  He's great, but he's the same: He rocks!  He isn't "most improved."  Ptah!  Ptui!

The true question re: Rondo, IMHO, is whether he is, in the Elrod Enchilada analytic sense, a top 5 player in the league.  In my opinion, he is.  Rondo is one of the very best players in the league, and his main competition is Kobe.

There I said it.     LBJ and DWade?  Afterthoughts.

MIP award frequently goes to players who take more shots or play more minutes, without truly improving.

[Spilling Green Dye]

If I had to pick an MVP candidate to represent the Celtics I'd pick KG.  When you take him off the court there is an enormous dropoff.  Rondo's production is in many ways a product of who he is playing with, but KG has been very productive on his own, rebounding, superb defense, and above all the leader on the team.  

As the season goes along I bet Dirk drops down in the MVP voting.  

[KobeShesNotConsenting!]

i'm surprised no ones kind of surprised at Westbrook over Durant for OKC mvp? I guess durant's missed some games but does anyone expect that placing to last to the end of the year? And Chris paul over rondo for DPOY is a complete joke. Also, shouldn't Amare Staudemire be higher than Rose for mvp? Better record and less to work with if you ask me

[Fan from VT]

I do not think Rondo being left off the MVP watch is a crime. However, I do think it's absolutely a crime that Rose is #3. Call me crazy, but before you can be considered MVP you have to prove the following:
1-You're not just a flash in the pan (therefore need to be in the league for 4 years or so before you're considered)
2-If your team got contracted and there was a dispersal draft of your team's players, you would hands-down be the #1 player for just that year...And depending on team need, Boozer and Noah would be close (for one year only).
3-If you're playing "PG," you have to prove you're not just Steve Francis II before you get MVP consideration.