Struggles of the bench quantified

[Roy H.]

Chris Forsberg looks at some of the bench's issues:

The Boston Celtics' bench players have been outscored by opposing reserves in eight of the team's last nine games and 11-of-16 tilts overall. On Friday, the Celtics' bench was outscored by a whopping 63-29 margin, and Boston's four chief reserves (Glen Davis, Marquis Daniels, Nate Robinson and Semih Erden) were a combined minus-52 in plus/minus on a night Boston's starting five was a combined plus-96.

Coach Doc Rivers admitted it's unfair to judge based solely on the point differential, but the numbers are impossible to ignore.

"It's unfair, but let's be unfair for a second," Rivers said after Friday's game. "The first and third quarters, [the Raptors] scored 35 points on our starters. And you can make that case, especially in the third quarter because [Boston's starters] played the whole quarter. The other two quarters were 32 [points allowed] and 34, and that's our second unit. So that was the only thing I talked about after the game."

Expanding the first and third quarters versus the second and fourth quarters over the last eight games shows that the Celtics are plus-70 in the first and third periods (outscoring opponents 462-392) and a minus-6 in the second and fourth quarters (being outscored 437-431).

But we wanted to be more precise. So we reached out to the folks at Elias Sports Bureau and asked them to crunch the numbers based on whether the Celtics' starters or reserves were on the floor.

There's no exact science to this, but typically Boston's starters are on the court for the first nine minutes of the odd quarters and the final six minutes of the even quarters. Of course, there are variances. Shaquille O'Neal -- or whomever the starting center is on any given night -- generally checks out earlier than, say, Rajon Rondo, and Ray Allen has logged a lot of time with the second unit. But this seemed like a fair split for our purposes. Overtime points were ignored.

During the 30-minute window assigned to the starters, Boston outscored opponents 1,037-898 for an average point differential per game of about plus-8.7. During the 18-minute window examined for the bench, Boston was outscored 563-530 for an average point differential of minus-2.1.

The discrepancy isn't so bad when considering points allowed per minute. The starters give up 1.87 points per minute during their 30-minute block, while the reserves allow 1.95 points per minute during their 18-minute span. The problem is on offense, where the starters average 2.16 points per minute and the bench scores 1.84 per minute.

Going back to simpler metrics, Boston's reserves have been outscored by the opponents' reserves 517-421, or about 6 points per game.

The numbers are much worse when one factors in that Davis, despite his sixth-man role, has spent more minutes with the starting unit than any other center on the team. Davis accounts for 42.3 percent of Boston's total bench scoring (166 points). That is a staggering number, especially considering his recent struggles (shooting 31.3 percent over his last six games, connecting on 20-of-64 shots).

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/columns/story?columnist=forsberg_chris&id=5860234

[BballTim]

  Two of our top three bench players are expected to be Shaq and Delonte. What did we get from him, two games? We should be in better shape in April.

[Roy H.]

  Two of our top three bench players are expected to be Shaq and Delonte. What did we get from him, two games? We should be in better shape in April.

No doubt about it.  If our bench in the playoffs is Shaq / JO / BBD / Marquis / Delonte / Nate, we should be fine.

However, the numbers do show that the current bench is underperforming.  While some of that is to be expected (especially with Semih in there), the overall play of Marquis and Nate off the bench has been underwhelming.

What those numbers also seem to show is that the bench defense has been decent, but has struggled mightily on offense.  I think Nate has to step up his offensive game (although in fairness to him, his minutes haven't been all that consistent, due to the play of Rondo).

[GranTur]

Shaq should and will stay with the starters. He is clearly more efficient and less turnover-prone than Perk.

The bench will be Nate, Delonte, Marquis, BBD/JO/Perk.

The bench will be significantly more balanced once Delonte and JO get back. Until then it will be a struggle.

Compared to other benches, ours is a C- offensively and a B defensively. Basically, a bench qualified for a .500 team, not a championship .700 team.

With a full deck the bench is a B- offensively and a A defensively. Works well with our starters that's for sure.

[Birdbrain]

The struggles are expected.  I would like to see it quantified once everyone is back.

[BballTim]

Shaq should and will stay with the starters. He is clearly more efficient and less turnover-prone than Perk.

The bench will be Nate, Delonte, Marquis, BBD/JO/Perk.

The bench will be significantly more balanced once Delonte and JO get back. Until then it will be a struggle.

Compared to other benches, ours is a C- offensively and a B defensively. Basically, a bench qualified for a .500 team, not a championship .700 team.

With a full deck the bench is a B- offensively and a A defensively. Works well with our starters that's for sure.

  When you say Shaq will stay with the starters, keep in mind that Doc's said the exact opposite.

[BballTim]

  Two of our top three bench players are expected to be Shaq and Delonte. What did we get from him, two games? We should be in better shape in April.

No doubt about it.  If our bench in the playoffs is Shaq / JO / BBD / Marquis / Delonte / Nate, we should be fine.

However, the numbers do show that the current bench is underperforming.  While some of that is to be expected (especially with Semih in there), the overall play of Marquis and Nate off the bench has been underwhelming.

What those numbers also seem to show is that the bench defense has been decent, but has struggled mightily on offense.  I think Nate has to step up his offensive game (although in fairness to him, his minutes haven't been all that consistent, due to the play of Rondo).

  Doc doesn't really want Nate playing pg, he wants Delonte in that role. That has a lot to do with his struggles as well.

[GranTur]

Shaq should and will stay with the starters. He is clearly more efficient and less turnover-prone than Perk.

The bench will be Nate, Delonte, Marquis, BBD/JO/Perk.

The bench will be significantly more balanced once Delonte and JO get back. Until then it will be a struggle.

Compared to other benches, ours is a C- offensively and a B defensively. Basically, a bench qualified for a .500 team, not a championship .700 team.

With a full deck the bench is a B- offensively and a A defensively. Works well with our starters that's for sure.

  When you say Shaq will stay with the starters, keep in mind that Doc's said the exact opposite.

Link please. AFAIK this hasn't been said since the preseason when JO was healthy.

In light of Shaq's play he will stay with the starters.

[Birdbrain]

Shaq should and will stay with the starters. He is clearly more efficient and less turnover-prone than Perk.

The bench will be Nate, Delonte, Marquis, BBD/JO/Perk.

The bench will be significantly more balanced once Delonte and JO get back. Until then it will be a struggle.

Compared to other benches, ours is a C- offensively and a B defensively. Basically, a bench qualified for a .500 team, not a championship .700 team.

With a full deck the bench is a B- offensively and a A defensively. Works well with our starters that's for sure.

  When you say Shaq will stay with the starters, keep in mind that Doc's said the exact opposite.

Link please. AFAIK this hasn't been said since the preseason when JO was healthy.

In light of Shaq's play he will stay with the starters.

He did say it but, there is a lot of time between now and then for Doc to change his mind. 

Chemistry issues could arise depending on his course of actions.

[2short]

One thing to think of for the bench mob
jermaine very few minutes/games
dwest 10 game suspension, back/injured
nate out of posistion and he's streaky plain and simple
semih doing a great job when he shouldn't see court but again, injured
perk out, consider him off the bench or a starter then its shaq to the bench

Get the whole team together with a rhythm and I can see it being one of the top 3 benches in nba.  Delonte is a key factor there as well as our ONeil/Perk group

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Shaq should and will stay with the starters. He is clearly more efficient and less turnover-prone than Perk.

The bench will be Nate, Delonte, Marquis, BBD/JO/Perk.

The bench will be significantly more balanced once Delonte and JO get back. Until then it will be a struggle.

Compared to other benches, ours is a C- offensively and a B defensively. Basically, a bench qualified for a .500 team, not a championship .700 team.

With a full deck the bench is a B- offensively and a A defensively. Works well with our starters that's for sure.

  When you say Shaq will stay with the starters, keep in mind that Doc's said the exact opposite.

Link please. AFAIK this hasn't been said since the preseason when JO was healthy.

In light of Shaq's play he will stay with the starters.

This is false, although I don't have a link... Doc has said many times since then, that Perk would start (I know b/c anytime Shaq is mentioned I "perk-up")! The reason? While Doc thinks Shaq improves the offense he thinks Perk is the better fit defensively. We all know above anything to Doc (the playoffs), defense is everything. You should look at the videos on Celts youtube to hear him say it (even after the blowout over the Wiz, where our offense ripped them a new one... look at this youtube video for more proof "Celtics Practice 11/18/10" )!