Mike Conley's Extension

[Moranis]

And he would get in the 10 million per range if he continues on his 16 ppg, 9 apg, 6 rpg, 3.5 spg, and 2.5 tpg with his very respectable shooting numbers.

It is a pretty safe gamble by the Grizzlies given his current numbers and the visible improvement over the latter part of last season and this season.

Do you think its at all likely that he's going to keep putting up those numbers?

I don't.

Same with Rudy Gay, he's not going to shoot 50+% from three.

Probably not the steals, but I think the points, boards, and assists are certainly doable. 

[Fafnir]

It is actually 8 million per, and I think you guys are really under selling Conley.  He is still just 23 and has shown solid improvement every year in the league.  He has pretty good 3PT range (career 38.4%) and has a decent AST% at just under 25 for his career, up near 37 thus far this year.  PG's are historically slow starters, especially when you miss a bunch of games due to injury as a rookie. 

1. They bid against themselves.

2. I'm not sold on Conley's improved play over the last 30 games. His first several years were very meh. Not everyone is Steve Nash and blossoms late, most players are good right away with the sort of minutes Conley got.

3. What the heck do they do with OJ Mayo?

Have you looked at Gary Payton's first few years in the league?  How about John Stockton?

Don't get me wrong I don't believe for a second Conley will end up with a HOF career, but those two guys, as well as Nash, started off pretty slowly with a fair amount of minutes.  And sure some guys like Jason Kidd, Isiah Thomas, and Magic Johnson entered the league like gang busters, but most PG's take a few years to develop. 

I love basketball referrence.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=YU7bC

You're really jumping on Conely following their career trajectory, I don't buy it. Especially given that for a PG of Conley's speed the game is easier now than ever. They just signed a average to below average PG to bigger money than they had to.

Memphis is going to lock in a decidely average team for years to come the way they're heading.

[Fafnir]

And he would get in the 10 million per range if he continues on his 16 ppg, 9 apg, 6 rpg, 3.5 spg, and 2.5 tpg with his very respectable shooting numbers.

It is a pretty safe gamble by the Grizzlies given his current numbers and the visible improvement over the latter part of last season and this season.

Do you think its at all likely that he's going to keep putting up those numbers?

I don't.

Same with Rudy Gay, he's not going to shoot 50+% from three.

Probably not the steals, but I think the points, boards, and assists are certainly doable.  

His shooting efficiency is in line with his career numbers, its just a matter of how many shots he'll take.

His rebounding isn't going to stay at a 8 rebound rate, and his assist rate is going to fall once Z-Bo is back and Gay stops hitting so many 3s.

His numbers might stay higher than his career ones, but that'll probably have more to do with him playing more minutes than anything.