Greg Oden's and a new contract

[cornbreadsmart]

     I read that Portland won't offer an extention. He'd be a restricted free agent. Do you guys think Ainge will inquire about Oden? I guess I'm envisioning some Red Auerbach move where some damaged player makes a great comeback.   

[cornbreadsmart]

Wow. I really have to look what I type before I send it. My bad.

[Fan from VT]

looks like a lot of 4th year players are not signing extensions. Presumably owners know that all 4th year players will be restricted FA's, so teams will have the right to match any offer, and presumably the owners know salaries will be quite different after this year so they are going to let the new CBA be sorted out before locking up a guy by only bidding against themselves to a contract that, though perhaps reasonable under the current CBA, could be way overpriced one year from now.

For instance, it may take an 10 million dollar a year contract now to lock up Oden now, but after the new CBA, he will be an RFA and maybe the max he could earn would be 8 million a year, with the blazers controlling the right to match and force him to stay. Something like that.

[More Banners]

I was surprised he wasn't offered an extension, but am still trying to figure out what the situation is with his contract.  Does he have one year left on his rookie deal, and if so did Portland pick it up?  Shamsports lists him as making almost $8.8 million next year if they did...and quite a bit of money this year, too (more than JO's MLE deal).

I can see POR being cautious about committing the money only if they don't think he'll ever be close to 100%, or, on the other hand, they bet that no team will make a big offer with the upcoming CBA situation, and they'll be able to then lock him up long term for fairly cheap money (compared to what has been spent lately...) on a Perkinsesque deal.

I think they still want him, but after working out the salary and health calculus, are making a big gamble.  The RFA status is their safety net in the whole thing, IMO.

[wdleehi]

They have his rights next year.  If he proves himself to be what they think he can, he will get the max from Portland. 

If he is injured again, unless some team goes for an oversize contract, they can match any small offer. 

[pearljammer10]

I would not have signed Oden either... He has done nothing but ride the pine with casts on since hes been here. Even in the games he has played I havent been very impressed.

[Fan from VT]

Yeah, I think it's mostly due the the assumption the new cba will drive salaries down, so considering teams will control the right to match, they want the cba to lower salaries before committing '05-'10 type market money in an extension.


Here's an article on 15 guys without extensions from that class:

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/shaun_powell/10/12/class-of-2007/index.html

[Who]

I would offered Oden a contract. Either a three year prove it to me deal or a five year deal on a discount.

Greg Oden was hugely effective last season in the minutes that he played. He is already worth $10 million a year and he'd be $15+ million a season if he can get his minutes to the 31-35 minute range in the future.

As for Boston's potential interest, without cap space it would be very difficult to make a play for Oden. Hard to see Portland being interested in any non-Rondo based sign and trade offer.

[Fan from VT]

I was surprised he wasn't offered an extension, but am still trying to figure out what the situation is with his contract.  Does he have one year left on his rookie deal, and if so did Portland pick it up?  Shamsports lists him as making almost $8.8 million next year if they did...and quite a bit of money this year, too (more than JO's MLE deal).

I can see POR being cautious about committing the money only if they don't think he'll ever be close to 100%, or, on the other hand, they bet that no team will make a big offer with the upcoming CBA situation, and they'll be able to then lock him up long term for fairly cheap money (compared to what has been spent lately...) on a Perkinsesque deal.

I think they still want him, but after working out the salary and health calculus, are making a big gamble.  The RFA status is their safety net in the whole thing, IMO.

Basically, he's in his 4th year now. The first 2 years were guaranteed, which means the blazers picked up the team option on him for last season and this season. He makes 6.76 million this year. A lot of money, but he's still a phenomenal talent if he can get healthy and they have invested a lot in his success; if they hadn't picked up a team option he would have been an unrestricted free agent and free to go anywhere; they would have lost control of him.

So at the end of this year, they'd ordinarily have the following options:
-Extend him to a mutually agreed upon contract
-not do anything and let him become an  unrestricted free agent
-offer him the "qualifying offer" of 8.79 million. Once the blazers offer this, he is a Restricted free agent. Teams can offer him whatever they want up to the max; if Oden signs one of those offers, the blazers can match and Oden HAS to stay in portland or Portland can let him go. If Oden doesn't get an offer he likes, he would accept the qualifying offer, play one year for 8.79 million, and be a fully Unrestricted Free agent.

Now, usually (like the C's did with Rondo), teams like to avoid Restricted Free agency so that other teams can't drive up the price on a guy they want to keep. However, the Blazers (and most teams with '07 rookies) know that they will have the right to match any contract post-new CBA, so they are waiting to see if Max salaries go down and/or there are new, team-friendlier option years/cuttable contracts before locking in.

Basically, they know they will be better off by waiting.