Baby is Getting Better and Better!

[Fafnir]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for thie difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?

KG is not the sort of dominant rebounder anymore that negatively effects his teammates numbers. There are some diminishing returns for defensive rebounding, but its not a huge effect. Offensive rebounding doesn't have the same sort of teammate effect typically.

Especially when Davis's defensive rebounding is right around last year's levels, only his offensive rebounding has declined.

[BballTim]

The average player in the NBA is a starter, not a bench player.

  This seems a little counter-intuitive.

[Fan from VT]

I purposely threw in median into this discussion of averages to tease out what exactly you meant by average because I thought you were being unnecessarily vague and flippant with your earlier position.

Even then, I'm not buying your long winded answer and attempt to justify vague language by equating 'average PF' with 'average starting PF'.  It's not the same thing, and no bit of median/average differentiating will make it the same.  Now, if you had said that Baby had 'below average production for a PF' then you might have a case, because that's a measure of all PF production and would be skewed by the better PFs who play the higher minutes.  But you said his stats are "below the average for a PF in the league," something that implies the median.

I also made a nod towards the fact that it's way too early to make any judgments based off 2 games.  By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

Average isn't a vague term. It includes all starters and backups, but since starters play the most minutes in the league their performance will naturally have a bigger impact than those players who play relatively few minutes.

Feel free to pretend I was "being vague" I wasn't. Average means average, not median! Just because a lot of people use the terms interchangeable doesn't mean I am. I didn't spell out my exact rationale and the numbers until your post, but I wasn't writing a term paper I was just pointing out a fact.

The average player in the NBA is a starter, not a bench player. Besides, if you're playing 30 minutes a game you're playing starter minutes. So when analyzing performance the starters should be included.

I wasn't being vague for flippant, I was being truthful. In 30 minutes 13/5 is below average for a PF in the NBA. As are Baby's FTAs, assists, and steals. Though he's above average in shooting % and turnovers.

By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

I'm using past years numbers because average player performance is relatively static other than pace over the past few years. If I could have found per minute averages for the league in the two games I would have used them. But those numbers weren't available to me.

To say I'm shifting my position is ridiculous when I'm talking about a player being above or below average of course I'm using past year's play to determine it. I can't watch every single NBA game or tabulate every boxscore and crunch real-time averages. This isn't my job after all, despite my massive time investment.

There area  couple of ways to look at average. One is to use Hollinger's PER, which, of course, counts points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and true shooting percentage on a per minute basis. It is then normalized league wide so that the exact "average" is 15.00, and everyone else's PER is relative to that.

Last year, Richard Hamilton was exactly 15.00 and had similar minutes to Davis this year:
33.7 mpg, 18.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.5 TO
So that was "average" last year, when weighted for minutes, etc.

Others that were close to 15.0, similar minutes to davis this year:
Shawn Marion: 14.79 (slightly below average):
33.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 TO

Kendrick Perkins: 15.08 (a few less minutes than BBD this year)
27.6 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 2.1 TO

Jason Thompson: 14.6
31.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.9 TO



Last year, Davis had a PER of 11.59, considerably below average. In 2 games this year, it is 18.98, which is certainly well above average. However, Most of that is due entirely to his Shooting Percentage. However, we know his percentage will not remain as high. so if he keeps his numbers where they are now this year, even when his shooting percentage goes down, he'd return to being slightly below average, as his numbers this year:

31.0 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, .5 apg, 0.0 TO

Are clearly a little worse overall than the 4 "average" players listed above.





There is another way to look at it. If you look at the total number of points scored, Rebounds, and assists in the NBA last season, and figure that each game consists of 256 "player minutes," you can figure out how many points, rebounds and assists the exactly average player would get per minute. Multiply by Davis's minutes this year, and you find that the exact average NBA player should, in 31 minutes, average around:

13.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.7 apg. Davis is a little above in scoring, a little below in rebounding, and significantly low in assists.

As such, I'd say Davis, this year, is "slightly below average."

[Bankshot]

The dislike for Baby seem to border on irrational.

I like BBD, but like doesn't mean I think he's a future all-star.

I don't either and never stated that in my original post.  Just that he is getting better, which he is.

[nba is the worst]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for the difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?

KG is not the sort of dominant rebounder anymore that negatively effects his teammates numbers. There are some diminishing returns for defensive rebounding, but its not a huge effect. Offensive rebounding doesn't have the same sort of teammate effect typically.

Especially when Davis's defensive rebounding is right around last year's levels, only his offensive rebounding has declined.

You certainly couldn't prove that statement by KG's 12.5 rpg average (in just 32 mpg - 2nd among players with 2 games played behind Scola)...

I know it's early, but I don't see how the Celts' depth isn't a contributor to Davis' numbers being hard to compare to reserve players on teams with less depth.

[Fafnir]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for the difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?

KG is not the sort of dominant rebounder anymore that negatively effects his teammates numbers. There are some diminishing returns for defensive rebounding, but its not a huge effect. Offensive rebounding doesn't have the same sort of teammate effect typically.

Especially when Davis's defensive rebounding is right around last year's levels, only his offensive rebounding has declined.

You certainly couldn't prove that statement by his 12.5 rpg average (in just 32 mpg - 2nd among players with 2 games played)...

I know it's early, but I don't see how the Celts' depth isn't a contributor to davis numbers being hard to compare to players on teams with less depth.

Do you think KG is going to continue at age 34 to rebound at a higher rate than he did as a 25 year old?

You keep citing the Celtics "depth", but if Davis is getting 30 minutes a game he has plenty of opportunities. Depth might matter if he wasn't on the court so much.

[BballTim]

I purposely threw in median into this discussion of averages to tease out what exactly you meant by average because I thought you were being unnecessarily vague and flippant with your earlier position.

Even then, I'm not buying your long winded answer and attempt to justify vague language by equating 'average PF' with 'average starting PF'.  It's not the same thing, and no bit of median/average differentiating will make it the same.  Now, if you had said that Baby had 'below average production for a PF' then you might have a case, because that's a measure of all PF production and would be skewed by the better PFs who play the higher minutes.  But you said his stats are "below the average for a PF in the league," something that implies the median.

I also made a nod towards the fact that it's way too early to make any judgments based off 2 games.  By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

Average isn't a vague term. It includes all starters and backups, but since starters play the most minutes in the league their performance will naturally have a bigger impact than those players who play relatively few minutes.

Feel free to pretend I was "being vague" I wasn't. Average means average, not median! Just because a lot of people use the terms interchangeable doesn't mean I am. I didn't spell out my exact rationale and the numbers until your post, but I wasn't writing a term paper I was just pointing out a fact.

The average player in the NBA is a starter, not a bench player. Besides, if you're playing 30 minutes a game you're playing starter minutes. So when analyzing performance the starters should be included.

I wasn't being vague for flippant, I was being truthful. In 30 minutes 13/5 is below average for a PF in the NBA. As are Baby's FTAs, assists, and steals. Though he's above average in shooting % and turnovers.

By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

I'm using past years numbers because average player performance is relatively static other than pace over the past few years. If I could have found per minute averages for the league in the two games I would have used them. But those numbers weren't available to me.

To say I'm shifting my position is ridiculous when I'm talking about a player being above or below average of course I'm using past year's play to determine it. I can't watch every single NBA game or tabulate every boxscore and crunch real-time averages. This isn't my job after all, despite my massive time investment.

There area  couple of ways to look at average. One is to use Hollinger's PER, which, of course, counts points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and true shooting percentage on a per minute basis. It is then normalized league wide so that the exact "average" is 15.00, and everyone else's PER is relative to that.

Last year, Richard Hamilton was exactly 15.00 and had similar minutes to Davis this year:
33.7 mpg, 18.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.5 TO
So that was "average" last year, when weighted for minutes, etc.

Others that were close to 15.0, similar minutes to davis this year:
Shawn Marion: 14.79 (slightly below average):
33.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 TO

Kendrick Perkins: 15.08 (a few less minutes than BBD this year)
27.6 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 2.1 TO

Jason Thompson: 14.6
31.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.9 TO



Last year, Davis had a PER of 11.59, considerably below average. In 2 games this year, it is 18.98, which is certainly well above average. However, Most of that is due entirely to his Shooting Percentage. However, we know his percentage will not remain as high. so if he keeps his numbers where they are now this year, even when his shooting percentage goes down, he'd return to being slightly below average, as his numbers this year:

31.0 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, .5 apg, 0.0 TO

Are clearly a little worse overall than the 4 "average" players listed above.





There is another way to look at it. If you look at the total number of points scored, Rebounds, and assists in the NBA last season, and figure that each game consists of 256 "player minutes," you can figure out how many points, rebounds and assists the exactly average player would get per minute. Multiply by Davis's minutes this year, and you find that the exact average NBA player should, in 31 minutes, average around:

13.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.7 apg. Davis is a little above in scoring, a little below in rebounding, and significantly low in assists.

As such, I'd say Davis, this year, is "slightly below average."

  "slightly below average" for a player would probably mean above average for a reserve.

[BballTim]

You keep citing the Celtics "depth", but if Davis is getting 30 minutes a game he has plenty of opportunities. Depth might matter if he wasn't on the court so much.

  I think that depth has a lot to do with his stats though. When the reserves are in he'll be playing with the likes of Nate, Delonte and JO. Last year that would have been Eddie/(a less integrated)Nate, TA and Sheed. The year before it might have meant Marbury/House/Scal. He could easily be a better player but not put up better numbers.

[Fafnir]

You keep citing the Celtics "depth", but if Davis is getting 30 minutes a game he has plenty of opportunities. Depth might matter if he wasn't on the court so much.

  I think that depth has a lot to do with his stats though. When the reserves are in he'll be playing with the likes of Nate, Delonte and JO. Last year that would have been Eddie/(a less integrated)Nate, TA and Sheed. The year before it might have meant Marbury/House/Scal. He could easily be a better player but not put up better numbers.

Rebounding isn't something thats negatively impaced by your teammates. Especially when none of your teammates are dominant rebounders.

I agree his shot attempts might be more limited this year, but I have my doubts based on how aggressive he's been so far. So far this year he's had plenty of opportunties. (right in line with last years on a per minute basis)

I like BBD as a bench player as our fourth (maybe third) big man. But so far he's basically taken Perkins minutes, even if Shaq gets the start due to positional/stamina/ego concerns.

[nba is the worst]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for the difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?

KG is not the sort of dominant rebounder anymore that negatively effects his teammates numbers. There are some diminishing returns for defensive rebounding, but its not a huge effect. Offensive rebounding doesn't have the same sort of teammate effect typically.

Especially when Davis's defensive rebounding is right around last year's levels, only his offensive rebounding has declined.

You certainly couldn't prove that statement by his 12.5 rpg average (in just 32 mpg - 2nd among players with 2 games played)...

I know it's early, but I don't see how the Celts' depth isn't a contributor to davis numbers being hard to compare to players on teams with less depth.

Do you think KG is going to continue at age 34 to rebound at a higher rate than he did as a 25 year old?

You keep citing the Celtics "depth", but if Davis is getting 30 minutes a game he has plenty of opportunities. Depth might matter if he wasn't on the court so much.

Rebounding isn't something thats negatively impaced by your teammates. Especially when none of your teammates are dominant rebounders.

Garnett averaged over 12 rpg from '02-'07 (ages 25-30).  Why do you think his rebounding numbers dropped to 9.2 rpg (from 12.8)and from 11.7 to 10.1 per 36 mins in '08?

Could it be because of the depth of the Celtics?

I disagree that the strength of your teammates' rebounding is somehow so much less of a factor than minutes played as to be irrelevant.

As I said, it's early to draw conclusions about where Davis' stats will be this season, but it's obvious that his game is improved in the 1st 2 games, where the TEAM has outrebounded their opponents.

[Fafnir]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for the difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?

KG is not the sort of dominant rebounder anymore that negatively effects his teammates numbers. There are some diminishing returns for defensive rebounding, but its not a huge effect. Offensive rebounding doesn't have the same sort of teammate effect typically.

Especially when Davis's defensive rebounding is right around last year's levels, only his offensive rebounding has declined.

You certainly couldn't prove that statement by his 12.5 rpg average (in just 32 mpg - 2nd among players with 2 games played)...

I know it's early, but I don't see how the Celts' depth isn't a contributor to davis numbers being hard to compare to players on teams with less depth.

Do you think KG is going to continue at age 34 to rebound at a higher rate than he did as a 25 year old?

You keep citing the Celtics "depth", but if Davis is getting 30 minutes a game he has plenty of opportunities. Depth might matter if he wasn't on the court so much.

Rebounding isn't something thats negatively impaced by your teammates. Especially when none of your teammates are dominant rebounders.

Garnett averaged over 12 rpg from '02-'07 (ages 25-30).  Why do you think his rebounding numbers dropped to 9.2 rpg (from 12.8)and from 11.7 to 10.1 per 36 mins in '08?

Could it be because of the depth of the Celtics?

I disagree that the strength of your teammates' rebounding is somehow so much less of a factor than minutes played as to be irrelevant.

As I said, it's early to draw conclusions about where Davis' stats will be this season, but it's obvious that his game is improved in the 1st 2 games, where the TEAM has outrebounded their opponents.

His rebounding declined due to his athletic decline as well as a minutes decline. He also played at a faster pace in Minnesota than in Boston. (for most of his years there)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html

Also as I've said in the past defensive rebounding has diminishing returns, but the current Celtics aren't dominant enough defensive rebounders to explain Davi's lack of production. And again his defensive rebonding has actualy gone up this year slightly, its his offensive boards that fell off the cliff.

Either way "depth" isn't an excuse for Davis's rebounding.

[nba is the worst]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for the difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

I'm not sure what you mean by this.

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?

KG is not the sort of dominant rebounder anymore that negatively effects his teammates numbers. There are some diminishing returns for defensive rebounding, but its not a huge effect. Offensive rebounding doesn't have the same sort of teammate effect typically.

Especially when Davis's defensive rebounding is right around last year's levels, only his offensive rebounding has declined.

You certainly couldn't prove that statement by his 12.5 rpg average (in just 32 mpg - 2nd among players with 2 games played)...

I know it's early, but I don't see how the Celts' depth isn't a contributor to davis numbers being hard to compare to players on teams with less depth.

Do you think KG is going to continue at age 34 to rebound at a higher rate than he did as a 25 year old?

You keep citing the Celtics "depth", but if Davis is getting 30 minutes a game he has plenty of opportunities. Depth might matter if he wasn't on the court so much.

Rebounding isn't something thats negatively impaced by your teammates. Especially when none of your teammates are dominant rebounders.

Garnett averaged over 12 rpg from '02-'07 (ages 25-30).  Why do you think his rebounding numbers dropped to 9.2 rpg (from 12.8)and from 11.7 to 10.1 per 36 mins in '08?

Could it be because of the depth of the Celtics?

I disagree that the strength of your teammates' rebounding is somehow so much less of a factor than minutes played as to be irrelevant.

As I said, it's early to draw conclusions about where Davis' stats will be this season, but it's obvious that his game is improved in the 1st 2 games, where the TEAM has outrebounded their opponents.

His rebounding declined due to his athletic decline as well as a minutes decline. He also played at a faster pace in Minnesota than in Boston. (for most of his years there)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html

Also as I've said in the past defensive rebounding has diminishing returns, but the current Celtics aren't dominant enough defensive rebounders to explain Davi's lack of production. And again his defensive rebonding has actualy gone up this year slightly, its his offensive boards that fell off the cliff.

Either way "depth" isn't an excuse for Davis's rebounding.

Opinions aren't FACTS, so I will disagree.

KG had an athletic decline between '07 and '08? Opinion.

He's not a dominant rebounder so far? (at 12.5 rpg) Opinion.

"depth" isn't an excuse for Davis's rebounding? Opinion.

It's a FACT that Davis is third on the C's in rebs and 2nd in both PER and rebounds per minute played.

[Celtics18]

Agreed, that statement is offensive to those of us who appreciate what Glen's doing for this team.

So disagreeing with you is offensive? Not exactly having an open mind for a debate.

Glen is 24 yrs. old, beginning his 3rd year, I believe. He had 3 years of college before he came to us. So I don't understand your logic, Fafnir.

My logic is simple, Glen Davis should hitting his prime in the next few years. He's currently getting 30 minutes a game. If he's ever going to develop like you think he will, he should show signs this year. We should be seeing his amazing potential right now.

Instead we're seeing below average PF play.

I'm not saying that Glen Davis is playing at an all-star level, but his production so far this season has hardly been below average.

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

  The rebounds are a little low but the points are probably close to average.

You're right the points are around average, but when he's shooting with a TS% of .700+ I think its fair to say that he'll be below average with regards to scoring soon.

  We all agree that two games is a little too early to use the stats to try to gain any kind of meaningful trend about this year's production.  However, two games is all we have to go on thus far.  Using stats from previous years is not really relevant as the discussion is that he is improved this year and will therefore have better production than in the past.


My main issue with your evaluation of this year's stats is that you keep reminding us that his shooting efficiency will invariably drop and when they do, he will be sub-par when you consider his low rebounding numbers.  This is nothing more than picking and choosing how you want to analyze the stats  to illustrate your own point.


I say we need to give it at least 10 games before we can really come to any substantial conclusions based on the stats from this season.

[Birdbrain]

He just keeps improving.  Every year, he seems to work on whatever his weakness was the season before.  His rookie season was an up and down one, but Doc still turned to him in crucial situations.  Then he worked on his jumpshot and this year he worked on his inside game and is not getting blocked to the degree he was last season (at least not yet).  It's only been two games, but I am very pleased with his progress to date. It appears that he worked on his range too.  Did you see that 3 he hit last night?... although it didn't count.

Keep up the good work, Baby. You have become a valuable member of the Celtics.

Yeah no doubt he's best player coming off the bench.  He's basically become unstoppable around the rim.  His game just continues to grow.  As I posted previously he has now even passed my homeristic belief in his talent and is moving into quality starter in 2 years category.

Keep up the good work.  TP by the way.

I won't bother reading the other 6 pages...

Baby doubters...err people that won't admit they were wrong.

[Who]

As a note -- in preseason, 7 games, Davis scored 12ppg in under 21mpg while shooting 49% from the field. He did a terrific job of getting to the line (41 FTA vs 53 FGA) and posted a 59% TS%.

His rebounding numbers were 4.4rpg in 20.7mpg for an average of one rebound every 4.7 minutes.