Baby is Getting Better and Better!

[Fafnir]

Agreed, that statement is offensive to those of us who appreciate what Glen's doing for this team.

So disagreeing with you is offensive? Not exactly having an open mind for a debate.

Glen is 24 yrs. old, beginning his 3rd year, I believe. He had 3 years of college before he came to us. So I don't understand your logic, Fafnir.

My logic is simple, Glen Davis should hitting his prime in the next few years. He's currently getting 30 minutes a game. If he's ever going to develop like you think he will, he should show signs this year. We should be seeing his amazing potential right now.

Instead we're seeing below average PF play.

I'm not saying that Glen Davis is playing at an all-star level, but his production so far this season has hardly been below average.

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

[BballTim]

Agreed, that statement is offensive to those of us who appreciate what Glen's doing for this team.

So disagreeing with you is offensive? Not exactly having an open mind for a debate.

Glen is 24 yrs. old, beginning his 3rd year, I believe. He had 3 years of college before he came to us. So I don't understand your logic, Fafnir.

My logic is simple, Glen Davis should hitting his prime in the next few years. He's currently getting 30 minutes a game. If he's ever going to develop like you think he will, he should show signs this year. We should be seeing his amazing potential right now.

Instead we're seeing below average PF play.

I'm not saying that Glen Davis is playing at an all-star level, but his production so far this season has hardly been below average.

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

  The rebounds are a little low but the points are probably close to average.

[guava_wrench]

BBD really looks comfortable on offense. I'm not sure what people expect from him, but he is our best finisher underneath so far this season by a mile.

Perhaps he will return to getting swatted when we play better centers.

His jumper has looked great -- the best it has ever looked. And he continues to do a great job drawing charges.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

I don't think you know what the word 'average' actually means.

Baby ranks 20th (out of 65 total PFs) in PPG, and 27th (out of 65) in points per 48 minutes.

from: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-48-minutes/position/power-forwards

His rebounding/game is 35th (out of 65) and 44th (out of 65) in rebounding/48 minutes.

If you average those 4 rankings, Baby's combined average rank amongst 65 PFs is 31.5.  Since the median rank would be approximately 32.5, Baby's current statistical output is actually above the average for NBA PFs.

Of course, it's way to early to draw meaningful conclusions from such a small sample size.

***

Now, if you're saying he's below average as a starting PF in the NBA, then you might be onto something.

[GreenFaith1819]

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

I don't think you know what the word 'average' actually means.

Baby ranks 20th (out of 65 total PFs) in PPG, and 27th (out of 65) in points per 48 minutes.

from: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-48-minutes/position/power-forwards

His rebounding/game is 35th (out of 65) and 44th (out of 65) in rebounding/48 minutes.

If you average those 4 rankings, Baby's combined average rank amongst 65 PFs is 31.5.  Since the median rank would be approximately 32.5, Baby's current statistical output is actually above the average for NBA PFs.

Good Research for the numbers.

[Fafnir]

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

I don't think you know what the word 'average' actually means.

Baby ranks 20th (out of 65 total PFs) in PPG, and 27th (out of 65) in points per 48 minutes.

from: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-48-minutes/position/power-forwards

His rebounding/game is 35th (out of 65) and 44th (out of 65) in rebounding/48 minutes.

If you average those 4 rankings, Baby's combined average rank amongst 65 PFs is 31.5.  Since the median rank would be approximately 32.5, Baby's current statistical output is actually above the average for NBA PFs.

Of course, it's way to early to draw meaningful conclusions from such a small sample size.

***

Now, if you're saying he's below average as a starting PF in the NBA, then you might be onto something.

I'm well aware what average means. Based on your analysis I think you're conflating average with median.

Your methodology appears to be looking for a median PF. That's very different than an average PF. The median PF will be a bench player (or the worst or close to it starting PF in the league), the average PF is going to be a starter playing 30+ minutes a game. So when you're looking at average PF production on a per minute basis the best PFs play the most minutes (typically 30 or more a game unless you're Lamar Odom) and so the average PF will perform much better than the median PF. When Davis is getting 31 minutes a game he's no longer a "bench player" when analyzing his production.

I'm speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years. This year's data isn't big enough to produce reliable numbers. But you can use the past as averages for the PF position haven't changed much the last few years.

An average PF in the NBA scores around 20 points per game on 16 shot attempts per 48 minutes. An average PF in the NBA gets around 11.5 rebounds per 48 minutes. These are averages pulled from wage of wins for the 2008-2009 season. Hoopdata is down or I'd pull averages from last year.

Currently even though he's shooting 70% from the field Davis is averaging 21 points per 48 minutes and he's getting 7.7 rebounds per 48 minutes.

Unless he continues to shoot 70% of the field he'll performing below average for a PF in league in scoring, and he's far below average in rebounding. I don't think he'll plummet too far with regards to scoring because I expect him to get to the line more frequently to counteract the fact that he won't post a TS% of .700.

[Fafnir]

Agreed, that statement is offensive to those of us who appreciate what Glen's doing for this team.

So disagreeing with you is offensive? Not exactly having an open mind for a debate.

Glen is 24 yrs. old, beginning his 3rd year, I believe. He had 3 years of college before he came to us. So I don't understand your logic, Fafnir.

My logic is simple, Glen Davis should hitting his prime in the next few years. He's currently getting 30 minutes a game. If he's ever going to develop like you think he will, he should show signs this year. We should be seeing his amazing potential right now.

Instead we're seeing below average PF play.

I'm not saying that Glen Davis is playing at an all-star level, but his production so far this season has hardly been below average.

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

  The rebounds are a little low but the points are probably close to average.

You're right the points are around average, but when he's shooting with a TS% of .700+ I think its fair to say that he'll be below average with regards to scoring soon.

[Bankshot]

Wow.  It's amazing how the people that don't like Baby refute every single good point someone is trying to make about him.  This post was just acknowledging the progress he has made, not saying that he is this great player or anything.  And you can't deny that he has tried to improve certain aspects of his game every season, so I don't get the people that are saying he has reached his ceiling.  He's just an improving young player that fits well with this team.

The dislike for Baby seem to border on irrational.

[GreenFaith1819]

Wow.  It's amazing how the people that don't like Baby refute every single good point someone is trying to make about him.  This post was just acknowledging the progress he has made, not saying that he is this great player or anything.  And you can't deny that he has tried to improve certain aspects of his game every season, so I don't get the people that are saying he has reached his ceiling.  He's just an improving young player that fits well with this team.

The dislike for Baby seem to border on irrational.

I think people are free to see Glen how they see him, but IMO he is becoming our Tony Allen.

It just seems to me that in the NBA, in a team setting, there always has to be a player that can be scapegoated if something doesn't go well in a game...someone has to take the blame.

In that vein, I think Glen has taken over the role of scapegoat, since TA has departed for what he believes is Greener pastures.

TA escaped those comparisons last year, but only after consistent play and maturation from him.

Well, Glen is well on the way in that maturation process, IMO. Let him string together some more impressive performances over the course of a few months and he'll have less naysayers, I think.

My only fear with that is like I believe Chris mentioned in a previous thread - he continues like he has this pre-season and regular season so far, and he may very well price himself out of Boston. Now - if he does that, then to me that will mean that we'll have Banner 18 in June 11, which to that effect I won't dislike him for leaving.

But Man we will find Glen Very Hard to replace - Chemistry-Wise and talent-wise. And for the Return on Investment as well.

Who else will bring us what Glen does as KG's sub? And for the money?

[nba is the worst]

BBD really looks comfortable on offense. I'm not sure what people expect from him, but he is our best finisher underneath so far this season by a mile.

Perhaps he will return to getting swatted when we play better centers.

His jumper has looked great -- the best it has ever looked. And he continues to do a great job drawing charges

I've (frankly) been surprised and amazed by his elevated level of play in these first 2 games.

His FG% is 27% above his career numbers - while drawing charges (on players like Wade and Hickson) @ a rate of 2 fouls per game while committing 2.5 and also ZERO turnovers).

Those comparing stats per minute should compare only to RESERVES on other deep teams like the Magic and Lakers - because it's ridiculous to think he will get "average" opportunities to score and rebound on this team.

How can Davis start with KG and Pierce on this team?

How can you compare him to (starters) Scola and Hibbert?

And 72.2% FG shooting IS blistering - despite being temporary...

[Fafnir]

The dislike for Baby seem to border on irrational.

I like BBD, but like doesn't mean I think he's a future all-star.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game is below average for a PF in the league.

I don't think you know what the word 'average' actually means.

Baby ranks 20th (out of 65 total PFs) in PPG, and 27th (out of 65) in points per 48 minutes.

from: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-48-minutes/position/power-forwards

His rebounding/game is 35th (out of 65) and 44th (out of 65) in rebounding/48 minutes.

If you average those 4 rankings, Baby's combined average rank amongst 65 PFs is 31.5.  Since the median rank would be approximately 32.5, Baby's current statistical output is actually above the average for NBA PFs.

Of course, it's way to early to draw meaningful conclusions from such a small sample size.

***

Now, if you're saying he's below average as a starting PF in the NBA, then you might be onto something.

I'm well aware what average means. Based on your analysis I think you're conflating average with median.

Your methodology appears to be looking for a median PF. That's very different than an average PF. The median PF will be a bench player (or the worst or close to it starting PF in the league), the average PF is going to be a starter playing 30+ minutes a game. So when you're looking at average PF production on a per minute basis the best PFs play the most minutes (typically 30 or more a game unless you're Lamar Odom) and so the average PF will perform much better than the median PF. When Davis is getting 31 minutes a game he's no longer a "bench player" when analyzing his production.

I'm speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years. This year's data isn't big enough to produce reliable numbers. But you can use the past as averages for the PF position haven't changed much the last few years.

An average PF in the NBA scores around 20 points per game on 16 shot attempts per 48 minutes. An average PF in the NBA gets around 11.5 rebounds per 48 minutes. These are averages pulled from wage of wins for the 2008-2009 season. Hoopdata is down or I'd pull averages from last year.

Currently even though he's shooting 70% from the field Davis is averaging 21 points per 48 minutes and he's getting 7.7 rebounds per 48 minutes.

Unless he continues to shoot 70% of the field he'll performing below average for a PF in league in scoring, and he's far below average in rebounding. I don't think he'll plummet too far with regards to scoring because I expect him to get to the line more frequently to counteract the fact that he won't post a TS% of .700.

I purposely threw in median into this discussion of averages to tease out what exactly you meant by average because I thought you were being unnecessarily vague and flippant with your earlier position.

Even then, I'm not buying your long winded answer and attempt to justify vague language by equating 'average PF' with 'average starting PF'.  It's not the same thing, and no bit of median/average differentiating will make it the same.  Now, if you had said that Baby had 'below average production for a PF' then you might have a case, because that's a measure of all PF production and would be skewed by the better PFs who play the higher minutes.  But you said his stats are "below the average for a PF in the league," something that implies the median.

I also made a nod towards the fact that it's way too early to make any judgments based off 2 games.  By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

[clover]

I think if you're going to average him against all the barely-playing scrubinis as well, you've got to stick to per-minute equalizers.  Then by your own methodology if you average 27 and 44 you get 35.5, which is indeed just below the median for all PFs.  I think this would fit with how he's been seen in the league: witness, his finishing out a 2-year contract right now.

But he's obviously been playing well in the preseason and now to start the season.  He's young and does seem to be getting better.  Right now I'd put him in the very top tier of PF reserves and very bottom tier of PF starters.  Good for him--and for the Celtics.

[Fafnir]

I purposely threw in median into this discussion of averages to tease out what exactly you meant by average because I thought you were being unnecessarily vague and flippant with your earlier position.

Even then, I'm not buying your long winded answer and attempt to justify vague language by equating 'average PF' with 'average starting PF'.  It's not the same thing, and no bit of median/average differentiating will make it the same.  Now, if you had said that Baby had 'below average production for a PF' then you might have a case, because that's a measure of all PF production and would be skewed by the better PFs who play the higher minutes.  But you said his stats are "below the average for a PF in the league," something that implies the median.

I also made a nod towards the fact that it's way too early to make any judgments based off 2 games.  By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

Average isn't a vague term. It includes all starters and backups, but since starters play the most minutes in the league their performance will naturally have a bigger impact than those players who play relatively few minutes.

Feel free to pretend I was "being vague" I wasn't. Average means average, not median! Just because a lot of people use the terms interchangeable doesn't mean I am. I didn't spell out my exact rationale and the numbers until your post, but I wasn't writing a term paper I was just pointing out a fact.

The average player in the NBA is a starter, not a bench player. Besides, if you're playing 30 minutes a game you're playing starter minutes. So when analyzing performance the starters should be included.

I wasn't being vague for flippant, I was being truthful. In 30 minutes 13/5 is below average for a PF in the NBA. As are Baby's FTAs, assists, and steals. Though he's above average in shooting % and turnovers.

By taking his 2 game totals of "13 and 5 in 30 minutes a game" and concluding that it "is below average for a PF in the league" you were clearly making a judgment that pertained only to this year since you only used Baby's current 2-game stats and thus were not "speaking of comparing his production to average PF play in past years" as you now claim.

I'm using past years numbers because average player performance is relatively static other than pace over the past few years. If I could have found per minute averages for the league in the two games I would have used them. But those numbers weren't available to me.

To say I'm shifting my position is ridiculous when I'm talking about a player being above or below average of course I'm using past year's play to determine it. I can't watch every single NBA game or tabulate every boxscore and crunch real-time averages. This isn't my job after all, despite my massive time investment.

[nba is the worst]

But Fafnir - the stats don't account for the difference in starters for teams with less depth,..

KG and Davis play substantial minutes together - should Davis be fighting KG for rebounds?