Baby is Getting Better and Better!

[Meadowlark_Scal]

Most of you know that i have always been a big critic of bbd.....i won't go into why...but he gave me plenty ...now however, i see what i want to see.....his shot is much better, as is selection and positioning, his layups and moves are right on.....rebounding...well not yet any indication, so we'll see. But he has improved to where he should be, i hope he can sustain this. This success can lead him to greater highs....

[Chris]

I don't see Baby remaining a bench player. His ability to improve, his IQ, his ego  , his increasing defensive plays are all indicators for me that he will continue to get better.
He's already good now, so it bodes well for him in the future.

I do agree, though, that it takes a strong desire to stay in shape and with his body type it is more difficult. But I think he wants it enough to make that commitment.

See, I think BBD is pretty close to his ceiling already.  He may improve his jumper and make small incremental improvements in his game but I don't think there's a big jump to another level awaiting BBD. 

Size-wise, he's not going to get any taller which will continue to work as a detriment sometimes.  If he can stay in shape, his agility should remain the same.  However, its going to become tougher and tougher to say in maximum shape.   That just happens with age.

If he's a starting PF on a team in the NBA, most likely than not, its a team that's close to lottery bound than title contender.

Agreed.  He just does not have the physical gifts to be too much better than he is right now.  Its nothing against his work ethic or anything else, he just does not have the ideal height or explosiveness to be able to be a top line starter.

The guy will continue to be a quality player for as long as he can stay in shape, but making the leap to that next level is just incredibly hard to do.

[footey]

We play hard D and that means not giving up fast break points.  Obviously that means fewer Offensive bard opportunities.   Most teams play this way now anyways.

Didn't we play hard D last year and give up the fewest transition buckets in the league?

Yet Davis was still getting two offensive boards a game, in half the minutes he's playing now. So in half the time he was getting twice the production on that end.

Its only two games so hopefully as his shooting percentage comes back to earth he'll get back to crashing.

He just needs to have more shots blocked back into his face, so he can be then credited with the offensive rebound...

true!

[footey]

Who takes charges better than Glen? I mean, legitimately, not the flopper kind (Verajao)?  Hard to think of anyone who does it better, especially among bigs.

[Fafnir]

Who takes charges better than Glen? I mean, legitimately, not the flopper kind (Verajao)?  Hard to think of anyone who does it better, especially among bigs.

Even Davis flops on charges, you have to to get the call.

[moiso]

I don't see Baby remaining a bench player. His ability to improve, his IQ, his ego  , his increasing defensive plays are all indicators for me that he will continue to get better.
He's already good now, so it bodes well for him in the future.

I do agree, though, that it takes a strong desire to stay in shape and with his body type it is more difficult. But I think he wants it enough to make that commitment.

See, I think BBD is pretty close to his ceiling already.  He may improve his jumper and make small incremental improvements in his game but I don't think there's a big jump to another level awaiting BBD.  

Size-wise, he's not going to get any taller which will continue to work as a detriment sometimes.  If he can stay in shape, his agility should remain the same.  However, its going to become tougher and tougher to say in maximum shape.   That just happens with age.

If he's a starting PF on a team in the NBA, most likely than not, its a team that's close to lottery bound than title contender.

This is true.  But he is great in his role here, and in two games he has played as close to perfectly as anyone on the Celtics.  
People always want to speculate if Baby is going to improve or fall back to earth, but the fact is that he's playing great ball right now, and probably close to his potential.  Who cares if he will never be an allstar starter on a playoff team?  Thats not what we need from him anyway.

[mmbaby]

No way he has reached his ceiling yet. I don't get where this comes from or how this can be stated.

I definately see him starting and contending in a few years, or maybe even less.

[Donoghus]

No way he has reached his ceiling yet. I don't get where this comes from or how this can be stated.I definately see him starting and contending in a few years, or maybe even less.

Really?  He's now in his 4th year in the league and almost 25 years old.  He's going to make a leap now?  He's not going to grow anymore, heightwise.  His game might get polished up a bit but any expectation that he is going to make a leap into an elite PF in this league is a bit ridiculous, IMO.  

When it comes down to it and you take away the passion and hustle aspect of his game, how much of his basketball skill set has improved exponentially since his rookie year?  And how much more of it is going to improve?

How many of the top echelon power forwards in this league took 4 seasons or more before  "making the leap" because it would really take him "making the leap" to exceed my expectations of him now.

Like I said before, he's close to his ceiling already.  I'm not sure what out there on the court is illustrating that he's about to "make the leap".

[Chris]

No way he has reached his ceiling yet. I don't get where this comes from or how this can be stated.

I definately see him starting and contending in a few years, or maybe even less.

He is still getting better.  But I think what we are trying to say is that we see his ceiling as being say...Kenny Thomas, or Udonis Haslem, or Corliss Williamson.

Quality players, but not guys you would really want to be your starting PF on a championship team.

[Fan from VT]

No way he has reached his ceiling yet. I don't get where this comes from or how this can be stated.I definately see him starting and contending in a few years, or maybe even less.

Really?  He's now in his 4th year in the league and almost 25 years ago.  He's going to make a leap now?  He's not going to grow anymore, heightwise.  His game might get polished up a bit but any expectation that he is going to make a leap into an elite PF in this league is a bit ridiculous, IMO. 

When it comes down to it and you take away the passion and hustle aspect of his game, how much of his basketball skill set has improved exponentially since his rookie year?  And how much more of it is going to improve?

How many of the top echelon power forwards in this league took 4 seasons or more before  "making the leap" because it would really take him "making the leap" to exceed my expectations of him now.

Like I said before, he's close to his ceiling already.  I'm not sure what out there on the court is illustrating that he's about to "make the leap".

I'm very curious about this as well. Can you (mmbaby) give us a rough estimate of Davis's "Ceiling Numbers" you see him reaching, assuming he maxes out at ~35 mpg? Can you contextualize the scenario in which you see him starting? Is the the 3rd best player on a playoff team, the 3rd best player on a lottery team, or the 3rd best player on a contender, etc.? Is there a current starter you would compare him to?

[kozlodoev]

When it comes down to it and you take away the passion and hustle aspect of his game, how much of his basketball skill set has improved exponentially since his rookie year?  And how much more of it is going to improve?

1. Developed a reliable jump shot and extended its range (jumper had a hitch in its form, and wasn't reliable).
2. Actually has some post moves now (zero ability to convert a hook shot in his rookie year).
3. Improved his ability to create off the dribble (nonexistent in his rookie year).
4. Significantly improved his ability to step in and take a charge (he was a step late on every rotation in his rookie year).

That's before even considering the passion, hustle, and improved conditioning.

[Chris]

When it comes down to it and you take away the passion and hustle aspect of his game, how much of his basketball skill set has improved exponentially since his rookie year?  And how much more of it is going to improve?

1. Developed a reliable jump shot and extended its range (jumper had a hitch in its form, and wasn't reliable).
2. Actually has some post moves now (zero ability to convert a hook shot in his rookie year).
3. Improved his ability to create off the dribble (nonexistent in his rookie year).
4. Significantly improved his ability to step in and take a charge (he was a step late on every rotation in his rookie year).

That's before even considering the passion, hustle, and improved conditioning.

While he has improved these things, I think they were always there, he has just gotten better at them, and adapted them to the NBA game. 

Basically, he has become pretty close to the player he was in college.  And that is a very good thing.

[Donoghus]

When it comes down to it and you take away the passion and hustle aspect of his game, how much of his basketball skill set has improved exponentially since his rookie year?  And how much more of it is going to improve?

1. Developed a reliable jump shot and extended its range (jumper had a hitch in its form, and wasn't reliable).
2. Actually has some post moves now (zero ability to convert a hook shot in his rookie year).
3. Improved his ability to create off the dribble (nonexistent in his rookie year).
4. Significantly improved his ability to step in and take a charge (he was a step late on every rotation in his rookie year).

That's before even considering the passion, hustle, and improved conditioning.

So I guess then it comes down to my question of whether or not its an "exponential" improvement which may be left up to semantics?

Are these improvements indictive to the point that it will illustrate growth into a player who can be a starting PF on a title contender?  Does these improvements illustrate that his ceiling is much higher from right now that myself and some others believe? Are we off in that assessement?

[Chris]

I just think some of you are underrating how hard it is to be a front line starter in this league. 

Now, I should say, I think on the right team, Davis could be the starter on a championship level team.  For example, I think if you put him on the Heat next year as a starter, he might do a heck of a job, and they would have a great chance at winning it all.  He would compliment the other starters, and fill the role nicely.

However, if anyone is expecting him to turn into an impact starter on a good team.  Meaning, someone who is actually a target for defenses, rather than just someone who takes advantage of the attention defenses pay to everyone else, then I think you are underestimating how difficult that is in this league.

[Fan from VT]

I'm biased, because I hate stats in general.  I just think it is pretty clear by watching them play that Davis is more likely to finish at the rim than Perkins is.  Maybe there are more advanced stats that can prove me wrong...but until I see them, I will stick with what my eyes see.

Honestly I don't see how that's all that possible, every data point says that Perkins makes a great percentage of his shots.

I think as far as post ups go because Perkins turns it over about 25% of the time in the post you might be right. But when it comes to making shots on the rim Perkins is better.

Baby is more skilled, but being 6'9" with long arms is more important than skill when it comes to putting the ball in the hoop.

Yes, he makes most of his shots.  But until I see a stat that takes into account getting the ball in a position to shoot and whether it is converted or not, I do not think these stats are relevant.

Its not like BBD doesn't fumble passes or turn the ball over.

I think you're essentially asking for the impossible because the data doesn't support your own beliefs. Maybe someone with synergy sports can help you out. (*cough*Jeff/jdapa*cough*/)

They might have the right settings to break it down enough for you.

Yes, I am asking for the impossible given the stats we have.  And that is my point.  We don't have the stats to show this.  While the stats you gave are interesting, I think there are still too many variables for them to answer the question here.

I'm not sure if this is exactly what you guys are looking for, but it's from ESPN's individual Hollinger Player Profiles:

His 49.2 percent shooting in the basket area was among the worst marks by NBA big men, and there's a good reason for that -- he got his shot blocked more than any other player in basketball. A phenomenal 17.9 percent of his releases were returned to sender,