So who do we get for big baby now?

[Fan from VT]

What concerns me is that he has stood out as looking fantastic, noticeably better...And yet this vastly improved looking Davis is still, through two games, averaging 13.5 points, .5 assists, 5 rebounds, .5 steals, and .5 blocks and it's taking him 31 minutes to do so. As a point of reference, a stand out bench player gives you that in maybe 24 minutes. So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.


A nice quick estimation that works surprisingly well is to add up all the "good" stuff from a boxscore (pts, rbs, assts, blks, stls) and subtract turnovers, and divide that number by minutes played. It's not perfect, but it's surprisingly consistent that, as long as the player is playing a decent amount of minutes, good players all end up being above .75 or so, with elite players over.85-.90. Rarely to big minute players end up over 1.0, with Dirk, Dwight, Wade, Lebron, and Durant being there frequently. Davis, despite his good play, is around .66. So he's not really contributing enough to label him as essential or irreplaceable yet; he's certainly not ready to depend on as a starter, and part of why he looks better is he's getting huge minutes but really not filling those minutes with enough good stu

Good perspective. I wonder, however, if the diminishing return can partly be explained by his increased minutes with the starters, especially in the 4th quarter.

Well, I think part of it is that Davis really has never been that efficient of a player; he's a good option to score if defenses focus elsewhere, and really doesn't contribute the "little things" that other starters do if he's not scoring...i.e. large amounts of rebounds, blocks, steals, assists, etc. So he's never been really efficient and he's always been a backup. Then, when he gets bumps in minutes, his total numbers do shoot upwards, and I think people say "Whoah, our bench PF is averaging 13.5 points and 5 rebounds! That's great!" which it would be IF IT WERE BENCH MINUTES. But it takes him 31 minutes per game to do that. If you don't acknowledge the minutes played, it seems great; if you do recognize the large increase in minutes, he suddenly drops in perception from "outstanding bench player" to "A little below average for a player getting starter's minutes."  In other words, in order to get "very good to outstanding bench numbers," Davis needs to play starters minutes.

[Fafnir]

What concerns me is that he has stood out as looking fantastic, noticeably better...And yet this vastly improved looking Davis is still, through two games, averaging 13.5 points, .5 assists, 5 rebounds, .5 steals, and .5 blocks and it's taking him 31 minutes to do so. As a point of reference, a stand out bench player gives you that in maybe 24 minutes. So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.


A nice quick estimation that works surprisingly well is to add up all the "good" stuff from a boxscore (pts, rbs, assts, blks, stls) and subtract turnovers, and divide that number by minutes played. It's not perfect, but it's surprisingly consistent that, as long as the player is playing a decent amount of minutes, good players all end up being above .75 or so, with elite players over.85-.90. Rarely to big minute players end up over 1.0, with Dirk, Dwight, Wade, Lebron, and Durant being there frequently. Davis, despite his good play, is around .66. So he's not really contributing enough to label him as essential or irreplaceable yet; he's certainly not ready to depend on as a starter, and part of why he looks better is he's getting huge minutes but really not filling those minutes with enough good stuff.

Good perspective. I wonder, however, if the diminishing return can partly be explained by his increased minutes with the starters, especially in the 4th quarter.

There are some diminishing returns on defensive rebounds, but not on offensive rebounds. Right now Glen is no longer getting to the offensive glass like he did last year, that's why his rebounding totals have plateaued.

[Fan from VT]

What concerns me is that he has stood out as looking fantastic, noticeably better...And yet this vastly improved looking Davis is still, through two games, averaging 13.5 points, .5 assists, 5 rebounds, .5 steals, and .5 blocks and it's taking him 31 minutes to do so. As a point of reference, a stand out bench player gives you that in maybe 24 minutes. So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

The reason he's been so much better is that he's shooting 70% (and hasn't turned it over once). If his efficiency numbers come back down to earth he'll actually be preforming worse than last year, simply because he hasn't gotten many offensive rebounds this year. Last year he was rebounding 7.9/36 minutes. This year he's rebounding at a 5.8/36 clip which isn't good enough.

Take a look at his per 36 numbers, they're all down accept scoring and that's only because he's shooting so much better in two games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisgl01.html

His rebounds, assists, and free throws are all down. I'm fine with him not drawing fouls if he converts at a high rate, but his rebounding has to get back to last year's level.

Right, that was the point I was driving at; thanks for writing it more clearly.


My main point is the discrepancy between appearances and measurable reality; even looking like he's playing much better, he's really only playing a little better but playing a lot more, and we can reasonably expect some of the playing better (turnovers and shooting%) to return to more standard levels.

[kozlodoev]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

[Fafnir]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Lots and lots of them when they shoot 70% from the field. Davis has a TS% of .716, which would lead the league last year by 86 points.

If his efficiency were to drop down to merely LeBron James's level of .600 last year (the MVP) his scoring would drop to 10 points a game.

[Fan from VT]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Let me look for a few minutes, but in the Meantime, let's be COMPLETE, and flip it around:

What starters out there average 13.5/5/.5 in 31 minutes that you are saying "Man, I wish that guy was starting on my club! He's a future building block with Rondo!"

[Bankshot]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Let me look for a few minutes, but in the Meantime, let's be COMPLETE, and flip it around:

What starters out there average 13.5/5/.5 in 31 minutes that you are saying "Man, I wish that guy was starting on my club! He's a future building block with Rondo!"

KG was pretty close last season with 15/7.

[Chris]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Let me look for a few minutes, but in the Meantime, let's be COMPLETE, and flip it around:

What starters out there average 13.5/5/.5 in 31 minutes that you are saying "Man, I wish that guy was starting on my club! He's a future building block with Rondo!"

KG was pretty close last season with 15/7.

Al Harrington averaged 18 and 6 last year in 30 minutes.  Do we want him as our starter going forward?

[Fan from VT]

Alright.

Thadeus Young last year was a disappointing starter. He played 32 mpg, averages 13.8/5.2/1.4. Not a building block. However, in his first game this year he stepped in for 26 minutes and got a 15/3/1. That's good bench production.

Ty Thomas is a guy who for Charlotte last year could step in in 22 minutes and give 10.1/6.1/.9. That's quite a bit better than 13.5/5/.5 in 32 minutes; I don't think anyone still looks for Ty Thomas as anything but a good rotation bench PF; certainly not a building block.

Derrick Favors, a rookie considered years away, stepped in for 20 minutes last nigh for an 8/10. That's great bench production.

Taj Gibson last year went for 9.0/7.5/.9 in 27 minutes. Not quite the scoring I referenced, but significantly better rebounding (which is more of what I want from a PF); regardless, the above line is quite a bit better than the 32 minute 13.5/5/.5 and Gibson was decidedly a very nice bench player last year.

Dejuan Blair, who I think everyone knows should be 6th man type big in an ideal situation, certainly not a building block, stepped in last year for 18.2 mpg and 7.8/6.4/.8

Kris Humphries, whom no one confuses as a starter, stepped into NJ last year for 20.6 mpg and a 8.1/6.5/.6

I like McDyess's '04-'05 as a comparison: Very solid and respected bench player, 23.3 mpg, 9.6/6.3/.9

Al Harrington came off the bench last night for 24 minutes for a 10/7/2. No one wants him starting.

A guy like Robin Lopez should Ideally be a 3rd big or your 5th best starter; last season in 19.8 minutes he contributed a 8.4/4.8/.1

It only took Channing Frye 27 mpg last year to get his 11.2/5.3/1.4. And he is decidedly not a bankable starter.



Here's the rub: Davis is a bench PF. That's fine. His shooting percentage is definitely going to decline, and once it returns to normalcy, he is going to need to improve in other areas to really justify 31 mpg or so.

If he is going to justify starters minutes, he either needs get up to a Nene (i think generally considered a "good starter")-type level to be considered a good PF starter: 12.2/7.0/1.2 in 26.8 mpg or 14.6/7.8/1.4 in 32.6 mpg. Or, if his rebounding is maxed out, and he's going to be a scorer, a truly great bench scorer is someone like maggette, who throws up an 18.6/5.6/1.8 in 31 minutes.



In other words, in order to justify his huge increase in minutes, Davis either has to increase his scoring even more than he already has, or drastically improve his rebounding. Until then, he's a solid bench player playing starters minutes.

As point of reference, last year Davis played 17.3 mpg and put up a 6.3/3.8/.6. Solid bench work. This year, he hasn't truly been much better; points per minute are up, assists per minute and rebounds way down and minutes is the thing that has gone way up, obscuring some of the numbers.

[Fan from VT]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Let me look for a few minutes, but in the Meantime, let's be COMPLETE, and flip it around:

What starters out there average 13.5/5/.5 in 31 minutes that you are saying "Man, I wish that guy was starting on my club! He's a future building block with Rondo!"

KG was pretty close last season with 15/7.

Kind of, except KG is, of course, a rare exception in that he actually is still an elite, elite, defender (Davis is not and never will be); KG played less than 31 mpg last year, so bump those up a bit; KG's precipitous dropoff in rebounding last year was a major major problem and his 7 rpg over the course of a whole season is statistically very significantly more than 5 rebounds per game, and you left out assists; KG gets, what, 4-5 times as many assists as Davis in his 29 minutes compared to Davis's 31?

[MelissaF]

Hello everyone,
Baby is very important player to the Celts and fills a need- a young big who plays with energy.I don't want him to go anywhere.  With Perk out and Jermaine milking 25 simultaneous injuries,We really need baby.

[Bankshot]

LOL.  It was crazy in the first place to even think of trading Davis, unless you're getting another big in return.  

Shaq is old and WILL be injured and can be a liability on defense at times and can only play limited minutes. Jermain is a walking injury and Perk is already hurt and we don't know how he'll be when he returns.  So trading Baby, imo, is not an option, unless, like I said before, you're getting another big in return.

And I don't care of Jermain and Shaq are healthy by the trading deadline, as they probably won't continue to be healthy for the rest of the season.  We've seen this old story before.

[Spilling Green Dye]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Let me look for a few minutes, but in the Meantime, let's be COMPLETE, and flip it around:

What starters out there average 13.5/5/.5 in 31 minutes that you are saying "Man, I wish that guy was starting on my club! He's a future building block with Rondo!"

I wasn't going to post in this thread b/c in general I don't think it'd be wise to trade Davis at this juncture of the season. He is an insurance policy on older players, and so I think he has higher value to the Celtics than he does other teams.

That said, I definitely don't look at Davis and consider him a building block with Rondo.  And I most definitely do not "wish for him to start."  I know I'm not alone in this, but Glen Davis is not cut out to be a regular starter on a team, and I honestly believe that most other teams feel that way too.  You build a championship caliber team around Davis as a 4th big, not as a 1st big.

[Bankshot]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Let me look for a few minutes, but in the Meantime, let's be COMPLETE, and flip it around:

What starters out there average 13.5/5/.5 in 31 minutes that you are saying "Man, I wish that guy was starting on my club! He's a future building block with Rondo!"

I wasn't going to post in this thread b/c in general I don't think it'd be wise to trade Davis at this juncture of the season. He is an insurance policy on older players, and so I think he has higher value to the Celtics than he does other teams.

That said, I definitely don't look at Davis and consider him a building block with Rondo.  And I most definitely do not "wish for him to start."  I know I'm not alone in this, but Glen Davis is not cut out to be a regular starter on a team, and I honestly believe that most other teams feel that way too.  You build a championship caliber team around Davis as a 4th big, not as a 1st big.

I love Baby and think he is too valuable to the Celtics to trade, I do however agree with you.  We are not going anywhere if Davis is the starter to replace KG, at least at the stage he is now.  Now if he turns himself into the next Barkley by the time KG leaves, then that's another story.   He is improving every year, so who knows, but I'm not holding my breath.

[kozlodoev]

So it's worrisome to me that even looking great while watching, he's still just providing "good" bench production expanded into borderline starter minutes.

Which bench players, in particular, average 13.5 points in 24 minutes per game?!

Lots and lots of them when they shoot 70% from the field. Davis has a TS% of .716, which would lead the league last year by 86 points.

If his efficiency were to drop down to merely LeBron James's level of .600 last year (the MVP) his scoring would drop to 10 points a game.

Or maybe not, since Davis is no longer averaging 31 minutes (down to 28.6) or .712 from the field (down to .667 FG%), yet his ppg has gone up to 14.3. Go figure.