So who do we get for big baby now?

[Birdbrain]

I think there is less than a 0% chance that Danny trades his best bench player.  I mean that doesn't really make any sense to me so IMO the whole concept has the aroma of Sports Talk Radio to it. 

But as always too each his own.

Right, but we're talking about Big Baby, not his best bench player...

(sorry, couldn't resist)

Ultimately, I think everyone other than Rondo, Pierce, KG, and Ray will be available for the right pieces, its all about getting the right value back.

Sure anyone is available (and I might win the lottery if I played it) but, BBD won't be available as the best bench player (good zing by the way) for a bench player.  That's what doesn't make any sense. 

Well, we will have to agree to disagree then.  Because, I think if there was a better bench player available, or one who filled a bigger need (say, Shane Battier), I think Danny will jump at the opportunity to move Davis...although chances are a player of that caliber wouldn't be available for a player like Davis, so you are probably right that he ultimately wouldn't be moved for that reason.

You also need to take into account the fact that Davis' contract is up at the end of the year, and he likely is going to be looking for more money and a larger role than the C's are going to be offering.  So, if they have a chance to get value for him during the year, they are not going to hesitate.  

I've read this and I don't think his contract situation will supersede the C's chances of winning it all.  He's a 3 million a year player.  Let's be honest he's a bargain.

[Birdbrain]

TP Roy for saving me a bunch of typing and finding the necessary link(s).  I could think of a few more too.

In watching Jermaine it does seem like he lacks his usual lift, and that he's "disinterested".  Maybe he's just one of those guys who doesn't need to be yapping ALL the time (i.e. Davis.)

Also, during a preseason game I saw Rondo dish to Jermaine O'neal who was directly underneath the hoop with 2 defenders on him.  He went up and dunked it w/o getting blocked.  It wasn't impressive looking, but it was something that Davis dreams about someday doing. 

The next time I care whether BBD can dunk like JO will be the first.  Of course I don't really think +/- is worth doo dittly poop either so...

[GreenEnvy]

Assuming all our bigs are relatively healthy come the deadline, I would consider trading him for depth at the 3. Battier comes to mind, but maybe Rudy is still hanging out unhappily in the Northwest as a cheaper option.

We would have 4 centers with Shaq, JO, Perk and Erden, but only two PF in KG and JO.

I don't like Harangody one bit as a PF, nor do I like Lasme. Both would get eaten up by the likes of Gasol and (probably) Bosh. Baby would have his trouble with those two as well, but I'd trust him. Gallon seems like a nice project if he can stay in Maine, but for the future, not this season.

A PF rotation of KG and JO would be fantastic, but JO is brittle after a summer of rest, imagine him after an 82 game schedule and a few rounds of playoff atmosphere.

Perk and Shaq at C would be great as well, with Erden able to use up some fouls if need be. But again, injuries are a concern after 6+ months of regular season ball.

If 'Sheed decides to lace up his Air Force One's for one last go 'round, then that makes Baby much more movable.


But I would not be inclined to make a move until we see what our strengths and weaknesses are. Marquis looks poised to return to his Indiana game and be a legit backup to Pierce. West seems to have his head back on his shoulders and once his suspension is up, he can give us 15+ quality minutes a night. Nate has been clicking all preseason and to have a player of his caliber backing up Rondo is great.

So right now (as things easily may change), we don't have any needs. We aren't trading Baby for another big. Unless we sustain a major injury, we are set at the PG-SG-SF spots.

[Chris]

I think there is less than a 0% chance that Danny trades his best bench player.  I mean that doesn't really make any sense to me so IMO the whole concept has the aroma of Sports Talk Radio to it. 

But as always too each his own.

Right, but we're talking about Big Baby, not his best bench player...

(sorry, couldn't resist)

Ultimately, I think everyone other than Rondo, Pierce, KG, and Ray will be available for the right pieces, its all about getting the right value back.

Sure anyone is available (and I might win the lottery if I played it) but, BBD won't be available as the best bench player (good zing by the way) for a bench player.  That's what doesn't make any sense. 

Well, we will have to agree to disagree then.  Because, I think if there was a better bench player available, or one who filled a bigger need (say, Shane Battier), I think Danny will jump at the opportunity to move Davis...although chances are a player of that caliber wouldn't be available for a player like Davis, so you are probably right that he ultimately wouldn't be moved for that reason.

You also need to take into account the fact that Davis' contract is up at the end of the year, and he likely is going to be looking for more money and a larger role than the C's are going to be offering.  So, if they have a chance to get value for him during the year, they are not going to hesitate.  

I've read this and I don't think his contract situation will supersede the C's chances of winning it all.  He's a 3 million a year player.  Let's be honest he's a bargain.

Oh, I wasn't saying they would trade him just to get value for him.  My point is, in the unlikely event that the rest of their big men are healthy and performing, and they had the opportunity to trade him in a deal that makes them better for this season by filling a more pressing need, the fact that he likely is not part of their future plans will make it much easier for them to pull the trigger.

And lets be honest here, he is likely not part of their future plans.  You are right that he is a bargain at $3 million...which is why he is going to be asking for much more this summer, and they are not likely to be willing to pay for it, with Shaq, JO, KG, Harangody, and Erden all locked up, and likely needing to give Perk a sizable raise.

Although, they could of course decide that Perkins is the one they don't see in their future plans, and it would be he they would trade.  But either way, (at least) one of them is likely not going to be here next year, and depending on the circumstances in February, that player could be moved for someone who fills another need.

[Chris]

I think there is less than a 0% chance that Danny trades his best bench player.  I mean that doesn't really make any sense to me so IMO the whole concept has the aroma of Sports Talk Radio to it.  

But as always too each his own.

Right, but we're talking about Big Baby, not his best bench player...

(sorry, couldn't resist)

Ultimately, I think everyone other than Rondo, Pierce, KG, and Ray will be available for the right pieces, its all about getting the right value back.

Sure anyone is available (and I might win the lottery if I played it) but, BBD won't be available as the best bench player (good zing by the way) for a bench player.  That's what doesn't make any sense.  

I know you're probably the biggest BBD fan on the blog, but let me give you a hypothetical example:

1.  Shaq, KG, and JO are all healthy and playing well at the trade deadline.  Perk is practicing and is looking good.  Harangody is exceeding expectations, as is Erden.

2.  At the same time, Marquis Daniels has gotten injured, possibly for the season.  Von Wafer, Delonte West, and Harangody are attempting to fill in at backup three, with limited success.

Under those very specific circumstances, would you consider trading BBD?  I agree that it's premature to do so now, but if he's the trade chip that can fill a position of need, would you do so?

I did try and keep my BBD homerism to minimum but, I can only take so many trade ideas for Shrek before I have to comment..

In your scenario I would consider it more than likely that trade of BBD could be made.  But that scenario is A LOT less likely than Shaq, Jermaine, or both being injured and Perk not being ready.  That's not even bringing KG into the discussion.  BBD is most guaranteed of the bigs from a health stand point at this stage of the season.  So I consider it so premature that almost as I said 0% chance of happening.

I should have said there is a very very slight chance that a trade of BBD (the best bench player as previously noted) will be made this season.  

That's very reasonable, and I agree with it.  You just seemed to be going to the extreme (perhaps pushed there by those going to the other extreme), and making it sound like you felt Davis shouldn't be traded under any circumstances.

Personally, I think the most likely trade candidate is Perkins, but both guys would be among the top potential pieces to be moved if the C's need to fill another hole, mainly because of their well proportioned contracts (big enough to help match salaries, but still bargains for their production), and the fact they play (potentially) the deepest position on this team.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

On a per-minute basis, both Jermaine and Shaq were substantially better scorers and rebounders than BBD last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=onealje01&y1=2010&p2=onealsh01&y2=2010&p3=davisgl01&y3=2010

They each outscored him, out-rebounded him, had more assists, had more blocked shots, shot a higher percentage from the field, and had fewer personal fouls.  J.O. is also a better defender than BBD, with Shaq being arguably worse.

Objectively, I think it's hard to argue that Baby's better.  In terms of versatility, J.O. has been a top-flight PF and an above-average starting center, so I'd say he can play PF/C on Baby's level.

First, one small quibble with your conclusion: Jermaine's the better defensive rebounder, and better per/minute scorer, but Baby is the better offensive rebounder. 

Second, and more importantly, don't forget the context of these stats, nor discount how differing roles can lead to differing statistical outcomes.  While JO did enjoy his best per minute scoring average in the last 4 seasons, he also enjoyed starting 70 games, and being his team's 2nd or 3rd option (behind Wade and Beasley).  Meanwhile, Baby had to rehab his thumb, learn a new role (again), come off the bench, and was his team's 7th option, and was basically asked to concentrate on taking charges and being an energy player, forsaking his offense so Sheed and House could jack shots.  But put Baby on some middling team, let him start and play 30 minutes a night, give him a high usage and make him 2nd or 3rd option, and he probably makes up the 4 point difference (per 36 minutes).  Players tend to play better and with more confidence when they get more minutes and a bigger role in the offense.  JO had that, Baby didn't, so to quote stats as somehow indicative of worth on this team this year is completely beside the point--they were playing different roles.

The other thing to remember is that while Baby rises to the occasion, JO shrinks from it.  It's not a coincidence that while Baby played his best ball in the biggest games of the year, JO had his worst games in those same situations.  If you challenge JO physically, he puts his tail between his legs.  Baby, on the other hand, thrives on physicality.  This is an important distinction to highlight because on this team we need that kind of never-back-down attitude next to KG.  I mean, it's no wonder that this team's MO (and the Wolves before that) is to put a bruiser/defender next to KG--having someone to absorb the physical low post play frees up KG to be the great help defender he can be.  Baby's got the strength and aptitude to be that guy, plus the ball skills to punish teams offensively; Shaq too can play that roll.  But JO?  He gets scared when the going gets tough.

So, yeah, you can look at some stats, divorce them from their context and conclude JO's the better offensive, rebounding, and defensive player.  But if you look at what this team needs, look at the collective history and career trends of JO and Baby and their personalities, it's pretty clear that Baby will be the more important player, fill the bigger role, and ultimately be the better player on this team in the situations he's called upon to perform in.  And even though it's early, I'd bet that Doc knows it too.  It's just too bad we had to waste the MLE to find it out...

[kozlodoev]

Someone remind me why we're discussing replacing a borderline starter who is able to give you occasional 20-point games with a rookie that got cut from a mediocre NBA team?! 

[Chris]

Someone remind me why we're discussing replacing a borderline starter who is able to give you occasional 20-point games with a rookie that got cut from a mediocre NBA team?! 

When you put it like that...

Frankly, I didn't even realize Gallon was the reason this started.  He has no bearing on Davis this season.  He is a longterm project at best.  If anyone is going to make Davis expendable, it will be the combination of KG, Shaq, JO, and Perkins being healthy.

[Jon]

Gallon isn't the solution; however, I think it's naive to think we absolutely must keep Baby.  I also think it's naive to think we should definitely trade him.

On one hand, the Baby supporters are right, but I don't think it's because of his talent.  Quite frankly, if KG, Perk, and both O'Neals are healthy in the playoffs, Baby probably won't play at all.  The question becomes IF they are all healthy at the same time.

HOWEVER, on the other hand, we're also weak at the 3 spot, and will likely have to go through LeBron and Miami to win it all.  Even if Daniels pans out, they're equally vulnerable at the 3 spot where they're an injury away from having to rely on Delonte West or Von Wafer to guard small forwards nearly half a foot taller than them. 

Quite frankly if I was faced with a situation where I'd have to rely on Semeh Erden for 10-15 mpg at the 5 spot (if Baby was traded and one of our big men went down) or had to rely on West/Wafer to play 10-15 mpg backing up the 3, I think I'd go with option 1. 

However, I'd wait and see on Daniels and Perk.  The health of each could really play a big role in any Baby trade.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing something like a Nate and Baby for Shane Battier (or if you think we can get more for them, insert your large, defensive 3 of choice).  You then swing West to the 1 and Daniels to the 2, which gives us better size and better defense.  Even better, it gives us 3 players (Pierce, Battier, and Daniels) who can guard small forwards if need be.  As for Baby's spot, Perk will be back eventually, and we could get by with Erden for a month of the regular season.  Additionally, in case of an injury at the 4/5, Battier could play some 4 in a Posey-like role. 

[footey]

BBD is our best bench player. Period. He is emerging as one of the best energy bench guys in the league.  He is not going anywhere.  Doc loves him, Danny too. Me three.

I seriously don't get this.. He isn't our best bench player at all. Sure, some people around here underrate him but a lot of people do the opposite, too.

He's an AVERAGE role player. Not much more, not much less.

Who is better in terms of offense, defense and rebounds off the bench? Maybe D West, but not nearly the presence inside. 

Jermaine O'Neal, assuming he continues a bench role.  BBD is probably our 4th best big man right now (and 5th best if Perk comes back), although he's also probably the healthiest, as well.

I disagree. Even if Jermaine comes off the bench (an open question), I prefer what BBD brings to the team to Jermaine, in terms of energy and production. He will probably be a more productive player than either Shaq or J O this season on a per minute basis. He is much better defender than Shaq.  Also, Baby, unlike any of the other centers, is more versatile, playing 4 and 5 better than anyone on the team, including KG, who would get killed by someone like D Howard one one one.

On a per-minute basis, both Jermaine and Shaq were substantially better scorers and rebounders than BBD last year:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=onealje01&y1=2010&p2=onealsh01&y2=2010&p3=davisgl01&y3=2010

They each outscored him, out-rebounded him, had more assists, had more blocked shots, shot a higher percentage from the field, and had fewer personal fouls.  J.O. is also a better defender than BBD, with Shaq being arguably worse.

Objectively, I think it's hard to argue that Baby's better.  In terms of versatility, J.O. has been a top-flight PF and an above-average starting center, so I'd say he can play PF/C on Baby's level.

Good stats, but they come from different teams. I doubt the per minute stats of Jermaine or Shaq this year with the Celtics will be anything close to what they have provided previously. We are trying to project here. In addition, for a player like Glen, there is far more energy that does not necessarily show in the box.  If Perk were full strength, I would rather trade Jermaine or Shaq than BBD, because (i) BBD more versatile (4 and 5--disagree that Jermaine can play 4); (ii) get a better player for either O'Neal, and (iii) they (the O'Neals) are redundant of one another, pretty much, but not of Glen.

My opinion of Davis has really escalated, especially given how he has finished the last two seasons, and how he is playing this pre-season.  Seems like I am in the minority here.

[Spilling Green Dye]

For those harping on how Jermaine did in this past year's playoffs, and citing that Davis "rose to the occasion".... I'd love to see how Davis would fare AGAINST the Celtics in the playoffs.  I'd say that was the big difference.  Another sizable difference is that Davis is surrounded by quality players who are able to take the heat off of him. 

[Spilling Green Dye]

TP Roy for saving me a bunch of typing and finding the necessary link(s).  I could think of a few more too.

In watching Jermaine it does seem like he lacks his usual lift, and that he's "disinterested".  Maybe he's just one of those guys who doesn't need to be yapping ALL the time (i.e. Davis.)

Also, during a preseason game I saw Rondo dish to Jermaine O'neal who was directly underneath the hoop with 2 defenders on him.  He went up and dunked it w/o getting blocked.  It wasn't impressive looking, but it was something that Davis dreams about someday doing. 

The next time I care whether BBD can dunk like JO will be the first.  Of course I don't really think +/- is worth doo dittly poop either so...

Being able to finish well around the hoop when surrounded by defenders would actually be the 1 area IMO that Davis could improve the most.  If he did this then his offensive rebounding would be even more of an asset, etc.

+/- can be skewed and stretched in a way that's not constructive, but I believe over a full season a +/- by category can be quite valuable for a player (when compared to other players he played with, etc).   In theory, people who use "Davis averages X amount of offensive rebounds, therefore he's good", are merely using a variation of +/- compared to other players.  Can't take 1 portion and not the other. 

In Davis' case it is unfortunate there isn't a good way to keep track of how many difference making charges he draws.  To me that's his biggest strength.

[2short]

Gallon isn't the solution; however, I think it's naive to think we absolutely must keep Baby.  I also think it's naive to think we should definitely trade him.

On one hand, the Baby supporters are right, but I don't think it's because of his talent.  Quite frankly, if KG, Perk, and both O'Neals are healthy in the playoffs, Baby probably won't play at all.  The question becomes IF they are all healthy at the same time.

HOWEVER, on the other hand, we're also weak at the 3 spot, and will likely have to go through LeBron and Miami to win it all.  Even if Daniels pans out, they're equally vulnerable at the 3 spot where they're an injury away from having to rely on Delonte West or Von Wafer to guard small forwards nearly half a foot taller than them. 

Quite frankly if I was faced with a situation where I'd have to rely on Semeh Erden for 10-15 mpg at the 5 spot (if Baby was traded and one of our big men went down) or had to rely on West/Wafer to play 10-15 mpg backing up the 3, I think I'd go with option 1. 

However, I'd wait and see on Daniels and Perk.  The health of each could really play a big role in any Baby trade.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing something like a Nate and Baby for Shane Battier (or if you think we can get more for them, insert your large, defensive 3 of choice).  You then swing West to the 1 and Daniels to the 2, which gives us better size and better defense.  Even better, it gives us 3 players (Pierce, Battier, and Daniels) who can guard small forwards if need be.  As for Baby's spot, Perk will be back eventually, and we could get by with Erden for a month of the regular season.  Additionally, in case of an injury at the 4/5, Battier could play some 4 in a Posey-like role. 

well put! tp

[Greenback]

Baby for Fernandez doesn't sound too bad.  I don't think Baby's complaining at the start of training camp was a positive event for him.  There may be a disagreement on the value of his next contract.

He may be gone before too long, just like Tony Allen. 

You can see it coming.
 
If Tiny can develop in a hurry: Bye Bye Baby.

[GreenEnvy]

Gallon isn't the solution; however, I think it's naive to think we absolutely must keep Baby.  I also think it's naive to think we should definitely trade him.

On one hand, the Baby supporters are right, but I don't think it's because of his talent.  Quite frankly, if KG, Perk, and both O'Neals are healthy in the playoffs, Baby probably won't play at all.  The question becomes IF they are all healthy at the same time.

HOWEVER, on the other hand, we're also weak at the 3 spot, and will likely have to go through LeBron and Miami to win it all.  Even if Daniels pans out, they're equally vulnerable at the 3 spot where they're an injury away from having to rely on Delonte West or Von Wafer to guard small forwards nearly half a foot taller than them. 

Quite frankly if I was faced with a situation where I'd have to rely on Semeh Erden for 10-15 mpg at the 5 spot (if Baby was traded and one of our big men went down) or had to rely on West/Wafer to play 10-15 mpg backing up the 3, I think I'd go with option 1. 

However, I'd wait and see on Daniels and Perk.  The health of each could really play a big role in any Baby trade.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing something like a Nate and Baby for Shane Battier (or if you think we can get more for them, insert your large, defensive 3 of choice).  You then swing West to the 1 and Daniels to the 2, which gives us better size and better defense.  Even better, it gives us 3 players (Pierce, Battier, and Daniels) who can guard small forwards if need be.  As for Baby's spot, Perk will be back eventually, and we could get by with Erden for a month of the regular season.  Additionally, in case of an injury at the 4/5, Battier could play some 4 in a Posey-like role. 

You cannot trade a known asset for the assumption that we may need another body elsewhere.

Having a perennial All-Star in Pierce and a player like Marquis Daniels (starter capabilities) does not make you "weak" at the 3. Name a better SF combo.

This season, we have everything we need. We have better 3-point shooting (Ray, Pierce, Nate, West, Wafer, even Daniels seems capable now) and better rebounding. Losing TA for better ballhandlers like 'Quis and West should bring down our turnovers. We have a better post-presence. We have a better scoring bench. Our defense should not fall off noticeably (even though we lost Tom T and TA, I expect us to be THE BEST in the NBA like we have been the last three seasons IMO).


IF a major injury occurs, then of course we would have to look into possible moves. But name another team that is not in the same situation. If LeBron or Wade miss the playoffs, Riley starts preparing for 2011-12. If Kobe/Gasol go down, LA simply throws in the towel at a 3-peat. D12 blows out his knee, so goes their championship aspirations. No team in the NBA can withhold a major injury mid-season without making an adjustment.


If all goes perfectly, we won't need to make a move. But that seems unrealistic, as even in 2008 we added players at the deadline (while going wire-to-wire best record). So I doubt our 15-man roster in April-May-June is identical to the one on Oct. 26th.

But right now, we play with what we have, assess our needs, and go from there.

Sometimes you just have to roll the dice. A player could be healthy all season and go down in game 6 of the Finals and there goes your championship (ugh!). I like our rotation as it stands. We can be fickle and argue about our 13-14-15, but to be a contender we cannot rely on those players, atleast not this season.