Noah and Bulls agree on $60 million extension

[Roy H.]

What would you rather have; great team defense, along with 14 ppg and 7 boards a night at 20+million a year or great team defense along with 12ppg and 11 boards a night, at 12 million a year?

I'm not clear on what you're comparing.  I'd take Noah over last year's Jermaine O'Neal (with his then-contract), sure.

I'd rather have a very good team defense, with Carmelo / Boozer / Rose as my building blocks going forward.

[Who]

Some centers and the contracts they signed as a point of comparison for Noah

• Nene - 6 years $60 million
• Tyson Chandler - 6 years $63 million
• Sam Dalembert - 6 years $60 million
• Brendan Haywood - 5 years $55 million
• Andrew Bogut - 5 years $60-72 million
• Emeka Okafor - 6 years $72 million
• Eric Dampier - 7 years $73 million
• Ben Wallace - 4 years $60 million
• Anderson Varejao - 6 years $50 million
• Andris Biedrins - 6 year $54-62 million
• Chris Kaman - 5 years $55 million
• Andrew Bynum - 4 years $58 million
• Memo Okur - 6 years $50 million + 2 years $21 million extension
• Marcus Camby - 2 years $20+ million contract extension
• Brad Miller - 7 years $68 million
• Andrea Bargnani - 5 years $50 million

[indeedproceed]

I think 12 points and 11 rebounds is pretty probable.

Let's go with that number.  Is 12/11 plus good to very good defense worth $12 million per year?  Is it worth the $14.2 million the Bulls will be paying in 2016?

I would lean toward "no".

I'd lean pretty hard towards 'yes'. The only centers to average a double double last season were David Lee, Andrew Bogut, Tim Duncan, and Dwight Howard. Team leader, defensive anchor, leading rebounder and double digit scorer...that guy should be the 2nd or 3rd highest paid player on your team.

EDIT: Although I do think CHicago screwed the pooch by not waiting to get this done. Noah would still have been a RFA, and I don't think he gets this money under the new CBA, plus who knows what kind of shinanigans the lockout could bring next season.

The other guys you cited will all get you around 16 - 20 points per night, though.  I don't think 11 points is all that impressive from your center.  Also, if you stretch the criteria only slightly, to include players averaging 9.3 to 9.9 rebounds, you add six more players to the list, with Dalembert and Haywood just falling short in terms of points.

I think paying your non-superstars as if they're near-max guys is the recipe for killing your cap.  I understand that NBA teams repeatedly do this (see the Dalembert contract, which Philly spent years trying to rid itself of, etc.)  However, I think it's a bad idea.

I'd rate Noah in about the same tier as David Lee or Amare Stoudemire, but skewed more towards a defensive slant.

Noah ought to improve his scoring next season, but I don't feel comfortable going beyond 12 or 13 ppg (a 2 point improvement), but Noah's defense is in another class when contrasted against Lee and Amare, so what he's lacking in scoring he's making up for in defense.

What would you rather have; great team defense, along with 14 ppg and 7 boards a night at 20+million a year or great team defense along with 12ppg and 11 boards a night, at 12 million a year?

I think in general "double double" is not even really a "stat" in the sense of any type of usefulness. It's arbitrarily based on our constructed base-ten number system which has no natural basis and is purely an intellectual construct designed to enable us to have conversations using numbers. But setting a hard line at "double double" is useless, as it is somehow assigning artificial value to averaging 10 points and 10 rebounds over, say, 9.5 points and 14 rebounds or 16 points and 9.0 rebounds.

Real or not the line is there. Centers who achieved a double-double

Deee-White: 18.3, 13.2
David Lee: 20.2 pts, 11.7
Tim Duncan: 17.9, 10.1
Al Horford: 14.2, 9.9
Brendan Haywood: 9.8, 10.4

Joakim Noah: 10.7, 11.0

The only guy on that list who could have made 10 million plus last season that didn't was Brendan Haywood. Noah is right in line with his money-tier.

What would you rather have; great team defense, along with 14 ppg and 7 boards a night at 20+million a year or great team defense along with 12ppg and 11 boards a night, at 12 million a year?

I'm not clear on what you're comparing.  I'd take Noah over last year's Jermaine O'Neal (with his then-contract), sure.

I'd rather have a very good team defense, with Carmelo / Boozer / Rose as my building blocks going forward.

Yeah yeah...'very good team defense' indeed. You're losing one of the best defensive centers in the league, and you're still going to have 'very good team defense'? Shinanigans. I call shinanigans.

[xmuscularghandix]

Kid deserves it, I think he’s the leader of this young team. Good player.

[BballTim]

I'll throw this out there too: Emeka Okafor.

I've always liked him, but I think he's another example of everyone immediately thinking he's overrated/overpaid because he's on terrible teams. If we take off the green goggles for a minute, just imagine the C's with Okafor instead of Perk. They lose almost nothing (if anything) defensively, get better rebounding, and significant offensive upgrade in the sense that Okafor, though no offensive master, isn't one of the league leaders in turnovers like Perk. If Okafor is on the C's the past three years, guess what? He's not considered overpaid at all.

Okafor
Min:   FG%  FT%   Pts  Rbs Assts Blks Stls PER
35.6  .447 .609  15.1  10.9  0.9   1.7   .8  16.39
33.6  .415 .656  13.2  10.0  1.2   1.9   .8  14.94
34.8  .532 .593  14.4  11.3  1.2   2.6   .9  20.15
33.1  .535 .570  13.8  10.7  0.9   1.7   .8  17.46

  If he's on the Celts the last 3 years he probably scores fewer points (from taking better shots) and gets fewer rebounds in 08 and 09. Is he not considered overpaid?

[BballTim]

Also, for those of you expecting Noah's numbers to go through the roof next year, making this contract look good, let's think about it a little more.

Last year, Noah played most of the season next to guys like Gibson and Brad Miller as the other big men in the rotation, and he averaged 10.7 points and 11 rebounds.  Next year he will be playing next to Carlos Boozer.  Is it safe to assume that Boozer will be averaging more than 7 rebounds per game?  I think there is plenty of reason to think Noah's numbers will stay the same, if not go down next year, lowering the chances even more that he will get a significantly larger offer as a RFA next summer.

I think 12 points and 11 rebounds is pretty probable. Just like Noah played next to Taj Gibson (a slightly better rebounder than Paul Millsap) and Brad Miller (a worse rebounder than Okur), Boozer played next to two not so special rebounders.

If anything I think Noah takes rebounds away from Boozer, rather than the other way around. Also, since Boozer will be a legitimate post presence next to Noah, I think Noah's offensive game jumps just a little bit. His baskets are predicated by hustle and opportunity, and Boozer won't take away from Noah's hustle, and should only increase his opportunity.

  I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

[BballTim]

Some centers and the contracts they signed as a point of comparison for Noah

• Nene - 6 years $60 million
• Tyson Chandler - 6 years $63 million
• Sam Dalembert - 6 years $60 million
• Brendan Haywood - 5 years $55 million
• Andrew Bogut - 5 years $60-72 million
• Emeka Okafor - 6 years $72 million
• Eric Dampier - 7 years $73 million
• Ben Wallace - 4 years $60 million
• Anderson Varejao - 6 years $50 million
• Andris Biedrins - 6 year $54-62 million
• Chris Kaman - 5 years $55 million
• Andrew Bynum - 4 years $58 million
• Memo Okur - 6 years $50 million + 2 years $21 million extension
• Marcus Camby - 2 years $20+ million contract extension
• Brad Miller - 7 years $68 million
• Andrea Bargnani - 5 years $50 million

  How many of those players aren't (or weren't) considered overpaid? How many of those teams would have gladly traded those players in the middle of the contract of they could have found a taker?

[indeedproceed]

 I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

The rebounds thing is debateable..but the fewer points I don't see. How are you going to take points away from a guy who scores primarily on opportunistic baskets?

If anything I think Derrick Rose and Deng will lose a 1 point here or there, as Boozer will take the touches that would've been outside, inside.

[Chris]

Some centers and the contracts they signed as a point of comparison for Noah

• Nene - 6 years $60 million
• Tyson Chandler - 6 years $63 million
• Sam Dalembert - 6 years $60 million
• Brendan Haywood - 5 years $55 million
• Andrew Bogut - 5 years $60-72 million
• Emeka Okafor - 6 years $72 million
• Eric Dampier - 7 years $73 million
• Ben Wallace - 4 years $60 million
• Anderson Varejao - 6 years $50 million
• Andris Biedrins - 6 year $54-62 million
• Chris Kaman - 5 years $55 million
• Andrew Bynum - 4 years $58 million
• Memo Okur - 6 years $50 million + 2 years $21 million extension
• Marcus Camby - 2 years $20+ million contract extension
• Brad Miller - 7 years $68 million
• Andrea Bargnani - 5 years $50 million

  How many of those players aren't (or weren't) considered overpaid? How many of those teams would have gladly traded those players in the middle of the contract of they could have found a taker?

Exactly.  Just because it is market value does not mean it is a smart signing.  And the fact that market value has not actually been set for this contract, and there is an excellent chance market value will be going down, it just doesn't make a ton of economic sense.

All of those guys were signed at a time when there was no real chance of the market changing.  Right now, the market is on the verge of changing, and the Bulls had the opportunity to wait and see the market before signing.  They chose not to do it.  

[Roy H.]

 I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

The rebounds thing is debateable..but the fewer points I don't see. How are you going to take points away from a guy who scores primarily on opportunistic baskets?

Boozer is a much more efficient player inside than Gibson or Miller, so presumably there will be fewer put backs, etc., for Noah.  That's one way that Noah's points will go down.  There will also be more defenders in the paint in general, which could cut down on opportunities.

[indeedproceed]

  I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

The rebounds thing is debateable..but the fewer points I don't see. How are you going to take points away from a guy who scores primarily on opportunistic baskets?

Boozer is a much more efficient player inside than Gibson or Miller, so presumably there will be fewer put backs, etc., for Noah.  That's one way that Noah's points will go down.  There will also be more defenders in the paint in general, which could cut down on opportunities.

Defenders will leave Noah to double Boozer, that's one way that he'll get more open looks.

Noah will also take Gibson's role as primary pick and roll player, so he'll get more looks as Boozer gets his position in the paint.

And also, how are there going to more defenders in the paint? Am I missing something, or does Carlos Boozer's addition mean the Bulls opponents get to have 6 players on the court at all times?

Boozer's shot selection mirrors Taj Gibson's almost identically.

Taj Gibson: 48% jumpshots, 52% inside
Carlos Boozer: 49% jumpshots, 51% inside

If anything the added attention to Boozer will help Noah, not hurt him.

[Chris]

  I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

The rebounds thing is debateable..but the fewer points I don't see. How are you going to take points away from a guy who scores primarily on opportunistic baskets?

Boozer is a much more efficient player inside than Gibson or Miller, so presumably there will be fewer put backs, etc., for Noah.  That's one way that Noah's points will go down.  There will also be more defenders in the paint in general, which could cut down on opportunities.

Defenders will leave Noah to double Boozer, that's one way that he'll get more open looks.

Noah will also take Gibson's role as primary pick and roll player, so he'll get more looks as Boozer gets his position in the paint.

And also, how are there going to more defenders in the paint? Am I missing something, or does Carlos Boozer's addition mean the Bulls opponents get to have 6 players on the court at all times?

Boozer's shot selection mirrors Taj Gibson's almost identically.

Taj Gibson: 48% jumpshots, 52% inside
Carlos Boozer: 49% jumpshots, 51% inside

If anything the added attention to Boozer will help Noah, not hurt him.

See, I think it could go either way.  There really is no way to know how either player is going to respond.  But isn't that another reason to wait it out?  See what happens. 

Who's list of salaries showed that Noah is already near the top of the pay tier for non-superstar centers on the old CBA.  So, based on that, I really see little risk that the Bulls would be losing a lot of money.  So why not wait, and have the possibility to actually save money...and also keep alive the possibility of a trade for a superstar like Melo.

[indeedproceed]

  I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

The rebounds thing is debateable..but the fewer points I don't see. How are you going to take points away from a guy who scores primarily on opportunistic baskets?

Boozer is a much more efficient player inside than Gibson or Miller, so presumably there will be fewer put backs, etc., for Noah.  That's one way that Noah's points will go down.  There will also be more defenders in the paint in general, which could cut down on opportunities.

Defenders will leave Noah to double Boozer, that's one way that he'll get more open looks.

Noah will also take Gibson's role as primary pick and roll player, so he'll get more looks as Boozer gets his position in the paint.

And also, how are there going to more defenders in the paint? Am I missing something, or does Carlos Boozer's addition mean the Bulls opponents get to have 6 players on the court at all times?

Boozer's shot selection mirrors Taj Gibson's almost identically.

Taj Gibson: 48% jumpshots, 52% inside
Carlos Boozer: 49% jumpshots, 51% inside

If anything the added attention to Boozer will help Noah, not hurt him.

See, I think it could go either way.  There really is no way to know how either player is going to respond.  But isn't that another reason to wait it out?  See what happens. 

Who's list of salaries showed that Noah is already near the top of the pay tier for non-superstar centers on the old CBA.  So, based on that, I really see little risk that the Bulls would be losing a lot of money.  So why not wait, and have the possibility to actually save money...and also keep alive the possibility of a trade for a superstar like Melo.

Well if anything this also helps the odds of getting Melo, because Noah is under a long-term contract.

But I agree, I will defend Noah the player to the death, but the Bulls should've waited.

[Fan from VT]

I'll throw this out there too: Emeka Okafor.

I've always liked him, but I think he's another example of everyone immediately thinking he's overrated/overpaid because he's on terrible teams. If we take off the green goggles for a minute, just imagine the C's with Okafor instead of Perk. They lose almost nothing (if anything) defensively, get better rebounding, and significant offensive upgrade in the sense that Okafor, though no offensive master, isn't one of the league leaders in turnovers like Perk. If Okafor is on the C's the past three years, guess what? He's not considered overpaid at all.

Okafor
Min:   FG%  FT%   Pts  Rbs Assts Blks Stls PER
35.6  .447 .609  15.1  10.9  0.9   1.7   .8  16.39
33.6  .415 .656  13.2  10.0  1.2   1.9   .8  14.94
34.8  .532 .593  14.4  11.3  1.2   2.6   .9  20.15
33.1  .535 .570  13.8  10.7  0.9   1.7   .8  17.46

  If he's on the Celts the last 3 years he probably scores fewer points (from taking better shots) and gets fewer rebounds in 08 and 09. Is he not considered overpaid?

I think he's considered overpaid but would be considered a great deal if he were on a good team...picture in place of Perk, in place of Bynum, alongside Duncan, in Miami, alongside Dirk, etc.

I think, in general, deals tend to look much worse when the surrounding team is terrible, whereas in reality, a player is or isn't worth his contract.

[Chris]

  I'd agree with Chris. He might lose fewer rebounds than Boozer but they'll both go down some. Boozer's also a bigger part of the offense so Noah might not get as many shots.

The rebounds thing is debateable..but the fewer points I don't see. How are you going to take points away from a guy who scores primarily on opportunistic baskets?

Boozer is a much more efficient player inside than Gibson or Miller, so presumably there will be fewer put backs, etc., for Noah.  That's one way that Noah's points will go down.  There will also be more defenders in the paint in general, which could cut down on opportunities.

Defenders will leave Noah to double Boozer, that's one way that he'll get more open looks.

Noah will also take Gibson's role as primary pick and roll player, so he'll get more looks as Boozer gets his position in the paint.

And also, how are there going to more defenders in the paint? Am I missing something, or does Carlos Boozer's addition mean the Bulls opponents get to have 6 players on the court at all times?

Boozer's shot selection mirrors Taj Gibson's almost identically.

Taj Gibson: 48% jumpshots, 52% inside
Carlos Boozer: 49% jumpshots, 51% inside

If anything the added attention to Boozer will help Noah, not hurt him.

See, I think it could go either way.  There really is no way to know how either player is going to respond.  But isn't that another reason to wait it out?  See what happens. 

Who's list of salaries showed that Noah is already near the top of the pay tier for non-superstar centers on the old CBA.  So, based on that, I really see little risk that the Bulls would be losing a lot of money.  So why not wait, and have the possibility to actually save money...and also keep alive the possibility of a trade for a superstar like Melo.

Well if anything this also helps the odds of getting Melo, because Noah is under a long-term contract.

But I agree, I will defend Noah the player to the death, but the Bulls should've waited.

How does it help?  It makes him very difficult to trade, because he is a poison pill contract.  He was a much more valuable asset before he was signed.