Noah and Bulls agree on $60 million extension

[Roy H.]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

I'm in your boat in that I don't really know how good Noah is defensively. People I read say he's very very good. The few games I've seen, he's the most active and vocal player on the floor, but I don't know for how much of that I'm confusing activity with ability, or whatever.

Yeah, I think it's easy to confuse the two.  A good example is Sean Williams at BC.  He was all over the court, blocking all kinds of shots.  People assumed, then, that he was a great defender.  Wrong.  His blocks often left him out of defensive position.  The stats showed that his teams were better defensively with him off the court, despite his freakish athleticism and blocked shots.

Now, I think Noah is above-average as a defender, I'm just not ready to slap him with the "great" or "elite" tags.

I think among starting centers he should be in the top 5 or so. What centers are better? Howard, Duncan, maybe Camby? (Although I think Camby's defense is very overrated).

I think wherever you slot Perkins, Noah should be that "position-a" (as in 3a, 4a, etc..)

Perkins is the better man defender, Noah is the better team defender and defensive rebounder. As complete defensive players, I'm ranking them at basically the same tier.

I think Howard and Bogut are probably the two best.  Horford is at least as good as Noah, and Camby and Ben Wallace were very good last year.  I think Noah belongs generally in that second tier somewhere, along with Perk.  However, based upon the numbers, I could very well be overrating Noah.

[guava_wrench]

Interestingly, I think in today's generally illogical and super speedy overreaction sports media, i think some of the above contracts wouldnt be so bad if their teams were good, which is a funny way of looking at things. So Noah's contract will largely be considered good or bad based on his team's success

I think you're exactly right on this one. Rondo's contract could easily be viewed as bad one if the supporting cast around him fails to deliver.

Especially since he's not the sort of player who scores a ton. (at least on this team)

Additional support for this view is the contract Orlando gave Lewis. He is overpaid, but no one talks about it any more due to Orlando's success with Lewis.

[Donoghus]

Noah + Deng > Carmelo + Dampier

Noah + Deng < Carmelo + average to above average starting center

I think the bigger question to me is a core of:

A: Rose, Anthony, Boozer, and (fill in blank) center

or

B: Rose, Deng, Boozer, Noah

If that "fill in the blank" center happens to be Dampier than I like that team's chances of doing serious damage more that option B.  I think a competent center when combined with Rose, Anthony, and Boozer makes that Bulls team pretty dangerous.

[Andy Jick]

The owners should lock themselves out...  It's deals like this that will put the NBA in a mess following this season.  Noah is not worth this kind of money, and I'd never trust him with a long-term deal.  I still feel he's kinda flaky, and I still don't know how passionate he is about growing as a basketball player.  He's what I would call a "plus role player" in that he has a good game (when he's focused) but he's not a guy who can carry a team. 

But maybe I'm just out of touch with salary scales and the monetary "value" of a player...

[indeedproceed]

Here is what Hollinger has to say about Noah:

Projection: 13.3 pts, 13.6 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 17.23 PER | Player card

• Spirited big man is amazing pick-and-roll defender and dominant rebounder.
• Energy player whose points come from running floor and offensive tip-ins.
• Good ballhandler, but odd, sideways-spinning jumper limits offense.

Noah has added enough muscle to check most centers, and is much more adept at banging under the glass for rebounds. As a result of his bulkier frame, he has to be considered among the league's elite defensive performers. Few are better at stepping out to the perimeter to help against the pick-and-roll, and Noah can react back to the basket for a shot block or rebound. Offensively, he's still mostly a scavenger, but Noah quietly made a lot of progress shooting. He made 24 of his 59 long 2s (shots from 16-23 feet) -- not a huge number, but a respectable 40.7 percent conversion rate. More shockingly, he hit 74.4 percent from the line, which was well above the league average for centers. The information will stun anyone who has seen him shoot -- his guide hand stays on top of the ball and forces it to spin sideways, basically blocking his own shot but somehow he's making it work. Noah started making hook shots close to the basket last season -- something he seems to do better with his left hand than with his dominant right.

[Chris]

Here is my question.  What risk do the Bulls take by waiting until next season to resign Noah?  Even on the current CBA, does anyone really see Noah getting significantly more money than that as a RFA?  

I think there is a much greater chance that he would have gotten significantly less money, since chances are salaries will be down across the board under the new CBA.

The only chance that it would have really burned them IMO would be if they somehow lost his RFA status under the new CBA, or because of a lockout.  I am not sure how that would actually work, but I imagine it is a very small chance that would happen.

So, they may have just signed Noah to what will amount to a superstar level contract on the new CBA, when there were no compelling reasons to do it now.

Panic move by the Bulls.

[indeedproceed]

Here is my question.  What risk do the Bulls take by waiting until next season to resign Noah?  Even on the current CBA, does anyone really see Noah getting significantly more money than that as a RFA? 

I think there is a much greater chance that he would have gotten significantly less money, since chances are salaries will be down across the board under the new CBA.

The only chance that it would have really burned them IMO would be if they somehow lost his RFA status under the new CBA, or because of a lockout.  I am not sure how that would actually work, but I imagine it is a very small chance that would happen.

So, they may have just signed Noah to what will amount to a superstar level contract on the new CBA, when there were no compelling reasons to do it now.

Panic move by the Bulls.

I agree that it is a panic move. Noah is their lockerroom leader, and he was threatening to hold out or something.

Thing is, if he is such a professional, and a leader...what's he doing threatening a holdout in the first place?

[Chris]

Interestingly, I think in today's generally illogical and super speedy overreaction sports media, i think some of the above contracts wouldnt be so bad if their teams were good, which is a funny way of looking at things. So Noah's contract will largely be considered good or bad based on his team's success

I think you're exactly right on this one. Rondo's contract could easily be viewed as bad one if the supporting cast around him fails to deliver.

Especially since he's not the sort of player who scores a ton. (at least on this team)

Additional support for this view is the contract Orlando gave Lewis. He is overpaid, but no one talks about it any more due to Orlando's success with Lewis.

Right, and that is because they did not need cap space beyond that because Howard made the leap to superstar status.  

I think this Noah contract (and the Deng contract) will be similar.  If Rose makes the leap to superstar status, then people may agree that the guys are overpaid, but they won't make a bit deal about it, because they are a big part of a heck of a team, and it just becomes monopoly money.  

However, if Rose does not make that leap, and remains in the borderline All-Star zone, and the team is unable to bring in another star to compliment their core to get them to the next level...well, they are going to be getting a lot of heat about those contracts.

[Andy Jick]

Here is my question.  What risk do the Bulls take by waiting until next season to resign Noah?  Even on the current CBA, does anyone really see Noah getting significantly more money than that as a RFA? 

I think there is a much greater chance that he would have gotten significantly less money, since chances are salaries will be down across the board under the new CBA.

The only chance that it would have really burned them IMO would be if they somehow lost his RFA status under the new CBA, or because of a lockout.  I am not sure how that would actually work, but I imagine it is a very small chance that would happen.

So, they may have just signed Noah to what will amount to a superstar level contract on the new CBA, when there were no compelling reasons to do it now.

Panic move by the Bulls.

Agree on this.  My guess is that the salary cap structure is going to change, and that it will take on some form of a "hard" cap.  I also believe that other players will push hard for new contracts because they are most likely going DOWN in the future. 

Bottom line: smart move by Noah...dumb move by the Bulls.

[Chris]

I agree that it is a panic move. Noah is their lockerroom leader, and he was threatening to hold out or something.

Thing is, if he is such a professional, and a leader...what's he doing threatening a holdout in the first place?

Because he is a "leader by example" who is not mature enough to be a true leader on and off the court. 

And the team might have just undermined Thibs' authority by giving Noah his way before they have even stepped on the floor.

[pearljammer10]

If you think all Carmelo does is score then you obviously have never watched melo play basketball before. He scores at an amazing level indeed at almost 30 points per game. he is a great rebounder at the sf spot and he can body up his defender. anyone who think a team with Carmelo and Dampier is worse than a lineup with Deng and Noah. heck, I'd take a lineup with just Carmelo over a lineup of Deng and Noah. Anyday. The Bulls missed their chance to be super elite.

[Who]

I don't think the Bulls need another star to be a Championship caliber side. I think the foursome of Rose, Boozer, Noah and Deng is good enough to win a title.

Not wild about their supporting cast but they'll be able to address that over time + some of their younger reserves will hopefully show improvement and grow into their roles.

[Who]

Here is my question.  What risk do the Bulls take by waiting until next season to resign Noah?  Even on the current CBA, does anyone really see Noah getting significantly more money than that as a RFA?  

Unless there is a massive change to the cap ... I cannot see Chicago signing Noah to a cheaper deal if they waited until next summer.

I think the most likely contract is in the $60-65 million range and that Noah would have a legit shot at $68-72 million deal as a free agent next summer.

If there was a major change to the CBA, then all bets are off.

[j804]

If you think all Carmelo does is score then you obviously have never watched melo play basketball before. He scores at an amazing level indeed at almost 30 points per game. he is a great rebounder at the sf spot and he can body up his defender. anyone who think a team with Carmelo and Dampier is worse than a lineup with Deng and Noah. heck, I'd take a lineup with just Carmelo over a lineup of Deng and Noah. Anyday. The Bulls missed their chance to be super elite.

True man Melo and Rose would have been real fun to watch

[BballTim]

I don't think the Bulls need another star to be a Championship caliber side. I think the foursome of Rose, Boozer, Noah and Deng is good enough to win a title.

Not wild about their supporting cast but they'll be able to address that over time + some of their younger reserves will hopefully show improvement and grow into their roles.

  I don't see them as better than 4th in the conference right now.