Noah and Bulls agree on $60 million extension

[Fafnir]

Terrible deal for the Bulls.  The chance of Noah getting more than that next summer is slim.  There are not going to be a ton of teams with cap space, and the new CBA could make that deal an absolute albatross.  They also make it nearly impossible to trade him now, basically locking them in to the roster they have for the foreseeable future.  

It looks to me like the Bulls panicked for some reason, and perhaps Noah was grumbling after the trade rumors (which may have even been leaked by Noah's agent to boost his value a bit, and give them leverage).  They had another month to negotiate, and I have to imagine the longer they waited and played hard ball, the more the price would have gone down, since Noah had little to gain by holding out for more money, given the state of the CBA.  If they waited until the end of October, like Ainge did with Rondo, I would be shocked if Noah's agent didn't blink, and they would have gotten him for about $10 million (or more) less.  

To me, this showed why Danny is so much better than 90% of the GM's in this league.  He understands that you can actually negotiate.  You don't have to just give the player everything they want...particularly when you hold their RFA status the next summer.  

The tough thing about this is that it may mean the end of Perk's run in Boston.  There is no way Danny is going anywhere near that kind of money for Perk, and now I can't see Perk's agent not asking for something at least close to that range.  If Perk comes back in January or so, and his agent starts throwing out Noah like numbers when they talk extension, don't be surprised to see Perks name a LOT around the trade deadline.  Danny plays hardball, and Perk might be getting priced out of Boston.

Isn't Danny the one that blinked however, and came up to Rondo's price?

What would be a good deal in your perspective, AV money? I you really can't sign good, young, defensive big men for much less than that.

[Chris]

Terrible deal for the Bulls.  The chance of Noah getting more than that next summer is slim.  There are not going to be a ton of teams with cap space, and the new CBA could make that deal an absolute albatross.  They also make it nearly impossible to trade him now, basically locking them in to the roster they have for the foreseeable future.  

It looks to me like the Bulls panicked for some reason, and perhaps Noah was grumbling after the trade rumors (which may have even been leaked by Noah's agent to boost his value a bit, and give them leverage).  They had another month to negotiate, and I have to imagine the longer they waited and played hard ball, the more the price would have gone down, since Noah had little to gain by holding out for more money, given the state of the CBA.  If they waited until the end of October, like Ainge did with Rondo, I would be shocked if Noah's agent didn't blink, and they would have gotten him for about $10 million (or more) less.  

To me, this showed why Danny is so much better than 90% of the GM's in this league.  He understands that you can actually negotiate.  You don't have to just give the player everything they want...particularly when you hold their RFA status the next summer.  

The tough thing about this is that it may mean the end of Perk's run in Boston.  There is no way Danny is going anywhere near that kind of money for Perk, and now I can't see Perk's agent not asking for something at least close to that range.  If Perk comes back in January or so, and his agent starts throwing out Noah like numbers when they talk extension, don't be surprised to see Perks name a LOT around the trade deadline.  Danny plays hardball, and Perk might be getting priced out of Boston.

Isn't Danny the one that blinked however, and came up to Rondo's price?

What would be a good deal in your perspective, AV money? I you really can't sign good, young, defensive big men for much less than that.

I think Danny and Rondo met in the middle.  It was a reasonable deal at the time that turned out to be a steal. 

As for Noah, I think, given the circumstances and timing, AV money should be the top of what he should get right now.  He still has a lot to prove, and has become dramatically overrated IMO.  To give him that kind of contract this early is foolish IMO. 

You would think the Bulls had already learned what happens when you pay a role player star money, when they signed Deng.  Now, he has almost negative value, and with the other contracts on their books, they are now running out of ways to add another impact player on the wing, and their only hope to become an elite team is that Rose makes the leap to superstar status. 

I'm not impressed.

[Roy H.]

I mean, if you think Noah got too much money, that's fine, although I would like to know who the Bulls could've gotten instead for less money (as Roy so claims is plausible), unless you, I'll say it again, mean Perkins. But Noah isn't so expendable that you trade him AND Deng for Melo.

This year, they could have added Dampier.  Dampier + Carmelo > Noah + Deng.  Next year, they could target Perk, Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nazr Mohammed, Chuck Hayes, Nick Collison, Spencer Hawes, etc.  All are pretty good rebounders and defenders.

Also, I don't get the argument that "all Carmelo does is score".  First, he scores at an amazing level, third in the NBA last year.  However, he does more than that.  He was 5th among SFs in rebounds, and 5th in assists.  He ranked 5th in double-doubles, and was in the top-10 in steals.  To suggest that Carmelo is one dimensional is just wrong.

Carmelo is a superstar.  Noah is a good role player.  Chicago should have learned their lesson when they refused to trade Hinrich or Deng for Pau Gasol.  Falling in love with your own talent is a real problem for a GM, and I think it's going to hold Chicago back.

[Chris]

I mean, if you think Noah got too much money, that's fine, although I would like to know who the Bulls could've gotten instead for less money (as Roy so claims is plausible), unless you, I'll say it again, mean Perkins. But Noah isn't so expendable that you trade him AND Deng for Melo.

This year, they could have added Dampier.  Dampier + Carmelo > Noah + Deng.  Next year, they could target Perk, Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nazr Mohammed, Chuck Hayes, Nick Collison, Spencer Hawes, etc.  All are pretty good rebounders and defenders.

Also, I don't get the argument that "all Carmelo does is score".  First, he scores at an amazing level, third in the NBA last year.  However, he does more than that.  He was 5th among SFs in rebounds, and 5th in assists.  He ranked 5th in double-doubles, and was in the top-10 in steals.  To suggest that Carmelo is one dimensional is just wrong.

Carmelo is a superstar.  Noah is a good role player.  Chicago should have learned their lesson when they refused to trade Hinrich or Deng for Pau Gasol.  Falling in love with your own talent is a real problem for a GM, and I think it's going to hold Chicago back.

Co-sign.  The Bulls have been falling in love with their own young role players for years, and choosing to overpay them over upgrading to legit stars.  Until they realize that stars win championships, they are going to continue to struggle to get to the next level. 

[Fan from VT]

Player A
Min:   FG%  FT%   Pts  Rbs Assts Blks Stls PER
12.8  .577 .417   3.6  4.0  0.4   0.8   .4  14.81
14.7  .638 .306   3.8  4.1  0.4   0.7   .3  13.69
29.0  .599 .521   9.5  9.3  1.1   1.7   .8  16.23
27.3  .626 .620  10.5  9.8  1.0   1.2   .7  19.01

Player B
Min:   FG%  FT%   Pts  Rbs Assts Blks Stls PER
16.0  .513 .535   4.9  4.7  0.5   0.7   .8  17.00
15.8  .527 .513   4.6  4.9  0.4   0.4   .6  14.75
23.9  .476 .476   6.8  6.8  0.9   0.6   .9  14.45
27.5  .461 .461   6.7  8.3  1.1   0.5   .8  11.90

Player C
Min:   FG%  FT%   Pts  Rbs Assts Blks Stls PER
20.7  .482 .691   6.6  5.7  1.1   0.9   .9  15.71
24.2  .556 .676   6.7  7.5  1.3   1.4   .6  16.57
30.1  .504 .744  10.7 11.0  2.1   1.6   .5  17.96

Player D
Min:   FG%  FT%   Pts  Rbs Assts Blks Stls PER
05.6  .440 .389   1.5  2.0  0.1   0.4   .2  16.28
26.8  .541 .644   8.0  7.7  0.3   2.3   .5  14.42
24.8  .524 .601   8.2  7.5  0.5   1.7   .6  14.22
26.7  .531 .705   7.3  8.2  0.4   2.4   .5  16.11


These are the first 4 seasons of gut-reaction similar type players. Each player signed an extension based on those seasons:
A= 10 mil per,; largely considered sunk contract
B= 6.3 mil per then 8.2 per; fairly paid
C= 12 mil per; TBD
D= ~11 mil per; immediate sunk contract.

Interestingly, I think in today's generally illogical and super speedy overreaction sports media, i think some of the above contracts wouldnt be so bad if their teams were good, which is a funny way of looking at things. So Noah's contract will largely be considered good or bad based on his team's success

[Roy H.]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

[Rondo2287]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

Roy By comparison, what are Perks numbers, with him on the court for the celts and opponents averages?

[Fafnir]

Interestingly, I think in today's generally illogical and super speedy overreaction sports media, i think some of the above contracts wouldnt be so bad if their teams were good, which is a funny way of looking at things. So Noah's contract will largely be considered good or bad based on his team's success

I think you're exactly right on this one. Rondo's contract could easily be viewed as bad one if the supporting cast around him fails to deliver.

Especially since he's not the sort of player who scores a ton. (at least on this team)

[Donoghus]

I mean, if you think Noah got too much money, that's fine, although I would like to know who the Bulls could've gotten instead for less money (as Roy so claims is plausible), unless you, I'll say it again, mean Perkins. But Noah isn't so expendable that you trade him AND Deng for Melo.

This year, they could have added Dampier.  Dampier + Carmelo > Noah + Deng.  Next year, they could target Perk, Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nazr Mohammed, Chuck Hayes, Nick Collison, Spencer Hawes, etc.  All are pretty good rebounders and defenders.

Also, I don't get the argument that "all Carmelo does is score".  First, he scores at an amazing level, third in the NBA last year.  However, he does more than that.  He was 5th among SFs in rebounds, and 5th in assists.  He ranked 5th in double-doubles, and was in the top-10 in steals.  To suggest that Carmelo is one dimensional is just wrong.

Carmelo is a superstar.  Noah is a good role player.  Chicago should have learned their lesson when they refused to trade Hinrich or Deng for Pau Gasol.  Falling in love with your own talent is a real problem for a GM, and I think it's going to hold Chicago back.

Co-sign.  The Bulls have been falling in love with their own young role players for years, and choosing to overpay them over upgrading to legit stars.  Until they realize that stars win championships, they are going to continue to struggle to get to the next level. 

Yup.  History seems to be repeating itself in Chicago.

[Who]

Noah + Deng > Carmelo + Dampier

Noah + Deng < Carmelo + average to above average starting center

[indeedproceed]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

I'm in your boat in that I don't really know how good Noah is defensively. People I read say he's very very good. The few games I've seen, he's the most active and vocal player on the floor, but I don't know for how much of that I'm confusing activity with ability, or whatever.

EDIT: But I absolutely do not think he's on Howard's level defensively, but no player in the NBA is.

[Roy H.]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

Roy By comparison, what are Perks numbers, with him on the court for the celts and opponents averages?

Perk had a "defensive multiplier" of .909 last year, suggesting that opposing centers were held to 90.9% of their average production.  The Celtics defense was 3.1 points better with Perk on the court than off.

[Fan from VT]

And in case no one knows/wants to look up:
A= Biedrins
B = Varejao
C = Noah
D = Dalembert

[Roy H.]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

I'm in your boat in that I don't really know how good Noah is defensively. People I read say he's very very good. The few games I've seen, he's the most active and vocal player on the floor, but I don't know for how much of that I'm confusing activity with ability, or whatever.

Yeah, I think it's easy to confuse the two.  A good example is Sean Williams at BC.  He was all over the court, blocking all kinds of shots.  People assumed, then, that he was a great defender.  Wrong.  His blocks often left him out of defensive position.  The stats showed that his teams were better defensively with him off the court, despite his freakish athleticism and blocked shots.

Now, I think Noah is above-average as a defender, I'm just not ready to slap him with the "great" or "elite" tags.

[indeedproceed]

Also, there's no doubt that Noah is a very good rebounder at this point.  However, is he an elite defender?

According to Basketball Prospectus, opposing players actually scored slightly above their averages (by 3.3%) against Noah.  Also, the Bulls were better defensively when Noah was off the floor than when he was on.  Even though I think it's clear that Noah is a pretty good defender, there's a question whether he's an elite, impactful one.

Quite honestly, I have no idea how good Noah's defense is, compared to the average defensive center.  However, I don't think he's at the level where his defense single-handedly changes games the way that, say, Dwight Howard's would.

I'm in your boat in that I don't really know how good Noah is defensively. People I read say he's very very good. The few games I've seen, he's the most active and vocal player on the floor, but I don't know for how much of that I'm confusing activity with ability, or whatever.

Yeah, I think it's easy to confuse the two.  A good example is Sean Williams at BC.  He was all over the court, blocking all kinds of shots.  People assumed, then, that he was a great defender.  Wrong.  His blocks often left him out of defensive position.  The stats showed that his teams were better defensively with him off the court, despite his freakish athleticism and blocked shots.

Now, I think Noah is above-average as a defender, I'm just not ready to slap him with the "great" or "elite" tags.

I think among starting centers he should be in the top 5 or so. What centers are better? Howard, Duncan, maybe Camby? (Although I think Camby's defense is very overrated).

I think wherever you slot Perkins, Noah should be that "position-a" (as in 3a, 4a, etc..)

Perkins is the better man defender, Noah is the better team defender and defensive rebounder. As complete defensive players, I'm ranking them at basically the same tier.