CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Fafnir]

The Playoffs are here! All discussion and voting will be done Thursday and this thread will be unlocked at midnight EST on Wednesday.

Voting will all be done via PM to CB Draft Voting. Voting will close at midnight EST Thursday.

Please use the following format for your ballot.

*Your Name Here*
Phoenix/Denver
Utah/Sacramento

So for an example if Jeff were to vote he might send this (if he decided to vote solely on "Euro Players"  ):

Jeff

Phoenix
Utah

Here are links to the Press Conferences for each team:

(1) Phoenix
(4) Denver

(2) Utah
(3) Sacramento

GMs should post what their tactics would be, how they feel they'd match up, and how they'd handle their rotations. Note that HCA will be the tie-breaker if voting is tied at the end of today.

Note to GMs off playoff teams:

7. You may not vote for your own team, this is to prevent skewing of overall results by every game theory loving GM from voting themselves in first place.

This rule is a bit unclear it was meant for regular season voting, it doesn't matter in a head to head situation so feel free to list your own team as the winner. If a GM doesn't think his team will win (or fails to vote) boo to him!

Each GM team will still however only get a single vote however, I will count the first ballot I receive.

[Fafnir]

Game on!

[Gainesville Celtic]

pssssst.........

Vote Denver!




Thanks!!

[Roy H.]

I'm going to repost some of the arguments made in the other Western Conference thread, in case anybody missed them:

Against Utah, Sacramento wins because I have to consider the longer Yao plays the more likely he doesn't make it through the season and then, with just Lopez there and not a real center, the Sacramento Assorted Power Forwards(which should be their name instead of the Kings) will be extremely effective.

I saw Utah as a very good regular season team that rolled the dice on Yao and I see them failing in the playoffs because of that. You got one vote.

[Roy H.]

For people who haven't studied the series as closely as nick, here's how Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph have matched up:

20 games played (10 wins, 10 losses each)

Pau:  17.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.8 turnovers, 48.2% FG% in 37.3 minutes

Randolph:  19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 48.1% FG% in 30.4 minutes

In other words, Randolph scores more points and grabs more rebounds, despite playing seven fewer minutes per game.  This isn't an aberration over a couple games, either; it's been a pattern for several years.

Randolph has had some of the biggest games of his career against Pau, including a 43 points / 17 rebound game, and another game where he went for 42 / 12.  Since Gasol has moved to LA, Randolph has averaged 20.0 points and 13.7 rebounds, to Gasol's 15.3 points and 10.3 boards.

In other words:  Advantage Randolph.  (I fully expect people not to buy into Randolph trumping Gasol, but head to head, that's exactly what has happened.)

[Roy H.]

For those that don't remember Yao's statline from last year:

0.0 points per game, 0.0 rebounds per game, 0.0 assists per game, 0.0 blocks per game

[Roy H.]

Another for instance, I've pretty much been behind Dons team from the jump, I really liked the Gasol-Yao combo and I'm really rooting for Yao this season, so I want to believe he'll be okay. Now though I am pretty excited to see how he defends his back-court, and shows me that Pau Gasol is head and shoulders (talentwise, he actually is head and shoulders above in reality) Carlos Boozer.

See, you can root for Yao all you want.  However, if you're being objective, you have to acknowledge that he was already in decline prior to his recent injuries, he's had two surgeries, and he talked about retiring due to them.  He's not going to be the same player that he was in his prime next year, especially not at age 30.

That's just a fact.  Anybody who disagrees is either letting preconceived notions or rooting interests cloud his / her analysis.

I don't expect Sacramento to win.  As nick says, most people have their mind made up, and for whatever reason, Gasol and Yao have more cache than Boozer and Randolph (and Rose).  However, Sacramento has three healthy stars to the Jazz' one (haven't people been trumpeting the "stars win" argument?), and they have the biggest mismatch in the series (Rose over Calderon).  However, as mgent has suggested, my players aren't "hot" right now, and they're not trendy (like the overrated -- especially at SF -- Mbah a Moute).  What my players are, though, is extremely talented.

[Roy H.]

So, here's how I see Sacramento vs. Utah:

The Starters:

Boozer vs. Yao:  First, there's absolutely no way that Yao is completely healthy and the same player he used to be.  He's 30 years old, coming off of multiple surgeries on his foot.  As recently as this off-season, Yao was contemplating retirement, and the word on the street was that he might never be able to play again.  I mean, guys don't just miss full seasons in the NBA and come back 100%.

So, Yao will be hobbled.  That's a fact.  However, even when fully healthy, Carlos Boozer played him tough.  (And yes, Carlos Boozer plays center -- almost as much as he plays power forward, but nobody watches the Jazz, so they don't know that).  In their respective careers, Boozer has played Yao evenly offensively (15.2 vs. 16.1 points per game).  However, Boozer *dominates* Yao on the boards, 9.7 vs. 7.3.  Every rebound means another possession for the Kings.  (I'd also point out that Boozer averages more personal fouls and more turnovers than Boozer does H2H.)

Randolph vs. Gasol:  Everyone's gut instinct is to say that Gasol wins this one, right?  Wrong.  See the stats above:  Randolph has consistently outscored and outrebounded Gasol in their H2H matchups.  These stats haven't come at the expense of winning, either, as Randolph has won 50% of the games he's played against Gasol.

Lewis vs. Gallinari:  I think Lewis takes this one, and Gallinari is certainly more of a question mark.  However, let's call this one about a push.

Lee vs. Casspi:  This one is pretty much a wash, too.  I'd lean toward Lee, as he's a better defender and because Casspi is *not* a shooting guard.  They don't have much of a head-to-head history, but in the one game they did play that Lee was healthy for, Casspi shot 1-for-8. 

Rose vs. Calderon:  By far, the biggest mismatch in the series.  You have one of the best scoring PGs in the league going up against perhaps the worst defensive PG in the league.  (Yes, worse than Mike Bibby).  Calderon allows opposing points guards to score 26.2% more than they normally do when he guards them, and was relegated to backup status (behind the immortal Jarrett Jack) in Toronto.  Calderon is a guy best suited to 25 minutes per game, which isn't going to cut it against Derrick Rose.

The Bench:

The two benches are similar in some ways.  They both have a defensive big man (Dampier vs. Lopez).  They both have a defensive stopper who can play multiple positions (Jeffries vs. Mbah a Moute).

However, Sacramento has a couple of things that Utah doesn't.  First:  the Kings have a backup PG.  Believe it or not, the Jazz don't.  Seriously.  They've got one of the worst starting PGs in the league, and he's backed up by...  Willie Green.  The same Willie Green who has never been a PG, and never will be a PG.  Sure, Jeff Teague is inexperienced, but he'll be playing 8 minutes a night.  Green is going to have to play, at minimum, 18, and probably closer to 23.  That's a HUGE advantage for the Kings.

Next, the Kings have dynamic scorers off the bench, that the Jazz can't compete with.  Francisco Garcia is a 6'7" shooting guard who causes matchup problems and who shoots 39.0% from three.  Richard Jefferson is a guy who is a season removed from averaging nearly 20 ppg in Milwaukee.  There's just no counterpart on the Jazz who can keep up with those guys.

Lastly, rebounding remains a recurring theme, as nobody on the Jazz bench can rebound with Drew Gooden and Eric Dampier up front.

Why the Kings win:

"Offense sells tickets, Defense wins games, Rebounding wins championships." - Pat Summit

The Kings are the best rebounding team in the CB-NBA, and they're going to consistently beat the Jazz on the boards.  On top of that, the Kings have an extremely efficient offense -- led by three legitimate stars -- that can score both in the post and from outside.  The Kings hold two huge matchup advantages here:  the bench and the point guard position.  Everywhere else is arguably fairly even, but when 20% of your starting lineup is getting dominated every night, it makes it hard to win games.  It makes it even harder when your bench is losing its nightly battles, as well.

[Roy H.]

Also, this is a series where Rashard Lewis will be playing some power forward.  Rashard played very good defense on Pau during the 2009 NBA Finals, and exploded in a couple of games offensively. 

Also, drawing Gasol out of the paint opens up things even further for Rose to drive inside.  A hobbled Yao just can't defend the paint by himself any more.  Rose / Boozer would kill him with the pick-and-roll.

(Speaking of which, people have criticized my team for its pick-and-roll defense, but what about Utah's?  You've got Jose Calderon -- the worst defender in the NBA -- covering Rose, which obviously is a huge problem.  But what about the inside defender?  Well, that's not Yao, with his huge loss of mobility.  Is it Pau?  Nope.  According to the LA Times, the Lakers' pick-and-roll defense was terrible last year.  Link.  Part of that is on Fisher, but a large part falls to Pau, as well.)

[StartOrien]

Roy H is a house of fire right now.

[Roy H.]

Roy H is a house of fire right now.

Just cutting and pasting most of my stuff from last night, but yeah:  Sacramento should be the favorites in this series.  They're a matchup nightmare for Utah, especially with a hobbled Yao and a terrible defender in Calderon (and I repeat, no backup PG.)

[StartOrien]

I might be a tad bit busier than usual at work, so might not have time to make a full game plan. But I'll definitely do my best to do so, and will definitely answer any questions.

For this matchup we'd go back to our normal starting lineup:

Howard
Jamison
Salmons
Matthews
B-Diddy

w/ Turk, Monroe, Rudy, T-Will and Ed Davis still in the rotation.

[StartOrien]

Roy, how many minutes do you expect out of Dampier?

[Roy H.]

Roy, how many minutes do you expect out of Dampier?

I would expect him to shadow Lopez.  Boozer and Randolph will both be in the 38 to 41 minute range, meaning that Dampier probably sees around 15 minutes or so, plus or minus.  Obviously, if we need a big defensive stop, he'll be inserted in spot situations, as well.

[StartOrien]

Roy, how many minutes do you expect out of Dampier?

I would expect him to shadow Lopez.  Boozer and Randolph will both be in the 38 to 41 minute range, meaning that Dampier probably sees around 15 minutes or so, plus or minus.  Obviously, if we need a big defensive stop, he'll be inserted in spot situations, as well.

Not that it matters all that much, but out of curiosity: Does he still start for your team?