CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[Fafnir]

Bynum only had a torn meniscus

In the past three years, Bynum has yet to finish a season healthy.

I don't see how he isn't as big an injury concern as Yao and Oden.

[The Walker Wiggle]

KG had some real questions that needed answering before anyone was going to buy him being an elite player. Its not really opinion, its fact based on evidence.

Actually I'm the crank that's going to disagree with that (as I did most of the season).

But don't listen to me listen to Kevin Pelton who awarded Garnett First Team All Defense Honors:

First Team - Kevin Garnett, Boston
Yes, Garnett has lost a step. Yes, players can occasionally turn the corner on him defensively, which was unthinkable just two years ago. Still, Garnett had room to slip slightly while remaining among the league's better defenders. His numbers continue to put him at an elite level, and a Boston defense that ranks fourth in the league in per-possession scoring still relies heavily on Garnett's presence as a quarterback on defense. Opponents have been 25.0 percent less productive than usual against Garnett, tops among power forwards.

As did John Schuhmann:

Kevin Garnett - Boston Celtics (97.2)
The one defensive play by Garnett that stands out from this season is probably not one he'd like to be remembered for. Rashard Lewis drove baseline around Garnett for the game-winning bucket in the final seconds of the Magic's 96-94 win over the Celtics on Jan. 28 in Orlando, in front of a national TNT audience. For some observers, that play summarized how the Celtics have fallen off since they won the championship two years ago.

But Boston's problems are more about the other end of the floor. They're still an elite defensive team, and though his mobility has been limited, Garnett is still the biggest reason why. The Celtics have allowed just 97.2 points per 100 possessions with Garnett on the floor. That's the second lowest on-court efficiency in the league among players who have logged at least 1,200 minutes.

EDIT - This article, Marion shut out in All-Defensive voting, also should've been included in the Clippers' P.R. package.

[indeedproceed]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

Bynum not so much because he only had arthroscopic surgery.  But Oden and Yao, especially Yao you have to expect a bit more of a probability that they could be hampered or miss time and even more especially late in the season after trying to play on their injuries.

Bynum only had a torn meniscus

Oden broke his kneecap without even having any contact cause the break. He had major surgery.

Yao twice had his foot operated on after it didn't heal the first time and his size will limit possible long term career aspirations because of the pressure put on that chronically weak area of his body.

I gave all three the benefit of the doubt of making it through the season and even treated my arguments of Oden vs Bynum as both fully healthy. But with Yao, he's older, it's a bone structure and fracture situation and he had some doctors calling his injury career ending, especially after it didn't heal after the first surgery.

I thought that HAD to be considered there.

Well, lets say I 'considered' it, and I decided Oden was 100% healthy to end the season, but Bynum wouldn't finish because he'd ended each of the previous 3 seasons injured, and every injury was a knee injury, so I thought it was a good probability it would recur.

Since Oden's injuries are all unrelated (Wrist-microfracture surgery, foot, other knee, first knee again), it seems plausible he could make a go of it.

Since Bynum (knees) and Yao's (foot) injuries are chronic, why is it feasible to predict one making a full healthy run and not the others?

You also didn't put out a well thought out press conference style breakdown of the match ups that Walker Wiggle did. If you want to have a chance at an upset that's what you have to do.

The Walker Wiggle? The Walker Wiggle that finished dead last in first round votes? With less than half the number of votes that a Knicks team that didn't post any game plan or even a presser received?

I'm going to say match-up breakdowns are overrated.

Don't beat yourself up over it mgent.

Well, #1, the Knicks team, if healthy, had a 2 dominant players on it. Wade and Oden would've been a pretty amazing duo, and with Kenyon Martin they should've beaten Washington. Nobody believed that Kenyon, Oden, and Wade could all stay healthy though.

#2, I think people looked at your argument and thought, "Well, I'd like to vote for them, but I think Dwight Howard is going to really do some damage. Screw it, I'm voting Howard, I bet a lot of people will vote for New Orleans."

I know that's what I did.

[indeedproceed]

KG had some real questions that needed answering before anyone was going to buy him being an elite player. Its not really opinion, its fact based on evidence.

Actually I'm the crank that's going to disagree with that (as I did most of the season).

But don't listen to me listen to Kevin Pelton who awarded Garnett First Team All Defense Honors:

First Team - Kevin Garnett, Boston
Yes, Garnett has lost a step. Yes, players can occasionally turn the corner on him defensively, which was unthinkable just two years ago. Still, Garnett had room to slip slightly while remaining among the league's better defenders. His numbers continue to put him at an elite level, and a Boston defense that ranks fourth in the league in per-possession scoring still relies heavily on Garnett's presence as a quarterback on defense. Opponents have been 25.0 percent less productive than usual against Garnett, tops among power forwards.

As did John Schuhmann:

Kevin Garnett - Boston Celtics (97.2)
The one defensive play by Garnett that stands out from this season is probably not one he'd like to be remembered for. Rashard Lewis drove baseline around Garnett for the game-winning bucket in the final seconds of the Magic's 96-94 win over the Celtics on Jan. 28 in Orlando, in front of a national TNT audience. For some observers, that play summarized how the Celtics have fallen off since they won the championship two years ago.

But Boston's problems are more about the other end of the floor. They're still an elite defensive team, and though his mobility has been limited, Garnett is still the biggest reason why. The Celtics have allowed just 97.2 points per 100 possessions with Garnett on the floor. That's the second lowest on-court efficiency in the league among players who have logged at least 1,200 minutes.

EDIT - This article, Marion shut out in All-Defensive voting, also should've been included in the Clippers' P.R. package.

Actually my entire quote was:

KG didn't just have a bad series, he had a bad year. His rebounds per 48 minutes were significantly off, he was having trouble staying in front of defenders (though by no means was it a common occurance, but people were just blowing by him once and a while. That never happened once in 07/08 or 08/09 while he was healthy)..

What is not correct about that?

[The Walker Wiggle]

Well, #1, the Knicks team, if healthy, had a 2 dominant players on it. Wade and Oden would've been a pretty amazing duo, and with Kenyon Martin they should've beaten Washington. Nobody believed that Kenyon, Oden, and Wade could all stay healthy though.

#2, I think people looked at your argument and thought, "Well, I'd like to vote for them, but I think Dwight Howard is going to really do some damage. Screw it, I'm voting Howard, I bet a lot of people will vote for New Orleans."

I know that's what I did.

Both #1 and #2 make sense to me, but I think together =

#3 Mgent didn't lose for lack of a more compelling argument. Although I do enjoy a compelling argument every now and then. (The rest of the time I'd just rather not be proven wrong.)

[The Walker Wiggle]

Actually my entire quote was:

KG didn't just have a bad series, he had a bad year. His rebounds per 48 minutes were significantly off, he was having trouble staying in front of defenders (though by no means was it a common occurrence, but people were just blowing by him once and a while. That never happened once in 07/08 or 08/09 while he was healthy)..

What is not correct about that?

If I'm going to be held to some sort of reasonable standard, and prohibited from taking your quotes out of context, then I'm not sure I want to keep playing.

But I'd still say "bad" in both cases is "not correct." He was still the best defensive power forward in the league and an elite player - or near enough. Still, ok, under the heat lamps I'd agree that his rebounding suffered and he's declined from his 07/08 form.

[The Walker Wiggle]

EDIT - This article, Marion shut out in All-Defensive voting, also should've been included in the Clippers' P.R. package.

P.S. In case nobody wanted to read the above Here was the fact that most astounded me.

Marion held opposing small forwards to a league-low .392 shooting percentage this season. He was especially effective against the league's top scorers. Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant (.340), Cleveland's LeBron James (.417), the Lakers' Kobe Bryant (.385) and Denver's Carmelo Anthony (.172) all shot way below their norm when Marion was on the floor this season.

[nickagneta]

Bynum only had a torn meniscus

In the past three years, Bynum has yet to finish a season healthy.

I don't see how he isn't as big an injury concern as Yao and Oden.

That's fine.

For me it's the bone structure that I see as the problem with Yao and Oden. Microfracture surgery and a kneecap breaking apart for Oden without any direct contact? Now add to that a broken wrist playing a physical game? That spells brittle bones and major problems. But as I said, I gave Oden the benefit of the doubt.

But Yao I can't. He hasn't played in a year and a half. Doctors called the injury possibly career ending both when he first broke the foot and after it didn't heal after the first surgery. He broke his left foot originally, had a stress fracture in the foot and then another "hairline" fracture that was diagnosed as possibly career ending. That again shows a bone structure problem that is long term and severely chronic. That I couldn't ignore.

As for Bynum, his first two injuries to different legs were contact injuries. One he landed on Odom's foot and the other Kobe smashed into his knee. these are structural problems. They are just bad luck. I see a huge difference in his problems versus those of Oden and Yao. Huge, huge difference.

[nickagneta]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

Bynum not so much because he only had arthroscopic surgery.  But Oden and Yao, especially Yao you have to expect a bit more of a probability that they could be hampered or miss time and even more especially late in the season after trying to play on their injuries.

Bynum only had a torn meniscus

Oden broke his kneecap without even having any contact cause the break. He had major surgery.

Yao twice had his foot operated on after it didn't heal the first time and his size will limit possible long term career aspirations because of the pressure put on that chronically weak area of his body.

I gave all three the benefit of the doubt of making it through the season and even treated my arguments of Oden vs Bynum as both fully healthy. But with Yao, he's older, it's a bone structure and fracture situation and he had some doctors calling his injury career ending, especially after it didn't heal after the first surgery.

I thought that HAD to be considered there.

Well, lets say I 'considered' it, and I decided Oden was 100% healthy to end the season, but Bynum wouldn't finish because he'd ended each of the previous 3 seasons injured, and every injury was a knee injury, so I thought it was a good probability it would recur.

Since Oden's injuries are all unrelated (Wrist-microfracture surgery, foot, other knee, first knee again), it seems plausible he could make a go of it.

Since Bynum (knees) and Yao's (foot) injuries are chronic, why is it feasible to predict one making a full healthy run and not the others?

You also didn't put out a well thought out press conference style breakdown of the match ups that Walker Wiggle did. If you want to have a chance at an upset that's what you have to do.

The Walker Wiggle? The Walker Wiggle that finished dead last in first round votes? With less than half the number of votes that a Knicks team that didn't post any game plan or even a presser received?

I'm going to say match-up breakdowns are overrated.

Don't beat yourself up over it mgent.

Well, #1, the Knicks team, if healthy, had a 2 dominant players on it. Wade and Oden would've been a pretty amazing duo, and with Kenyon Martin they should've beaten Washington. Nobody believed that Kenyon, Oden, and Wade could all stay healthy though.

#2, I think people looked at your argument and thought, "Well, I'd like to vote for them, but I think Dwight Howard is going to really do some damage. Screw it, I'm voting Howard, I bet a lot of people will vote for New Orleans."

I know that's what I did.

See my answer ot Faf. I see structural injuries versus bad luck injuries from landing on someone's foot or having a team mate slam into you as a huge difference maker.

And if you wanted to see things that way, that's fine.

I kind of agree with THE Walker Wiggle. I think for the most part except for a few voters, most people have their minds made up who is winning a series well before the debate starts and the debate isn't changing their mind. For one, I know for a fact about 6-7 votes I stand zero chance of getting. None. Nunca. Nil. It's not happening. Then there is probably another 4-5 that I am pretty sure I have locked up. But then there are about another 4-5 that I am pretty sure will have made up their mind one way or the other before the voting even starts.

I mean I'm going to do what I can to debate tomorrow but I'm just not to sure how effective it will be in making people decide who they are going to vote for.

[Roy H.]

For those that don't remember Yao's statline from last year: 

0.0 points per game, 0.0 rebounds per game, 0.0 assists per game, 0.0 blocks per game

[Roy H.]

So, here's how I see Sacramento vs. Utah:

The Starters:

Boozer vs. Yao:  First, there's absolutely no way that Yao is completely healthy and the same player he used to be.  He's 30 years old, coming off of multiple surgeries on his foot.  As recently as this off-season, Yao was contemplating retirement, and the word on the street was that he might never be able to play again.  I mean, guys don't just miss full seasons in the NBA and come back 100%.

So, Yao will be hobbled.  That's a fact.  However, even when fully healthy, Carlos Boozer played him tough.  (And yes, Carlos Boozer plays center -- almost as much as he plays power forward, but nobody watches the Jazz, so they don't know that).  In their respective careers, Boozer has played Yao evenly offensively (15.2 vs. 16.1 points per game).  However, Boozer *dominates* Yao on the boards, 9.7 vs. 7.3.  Every rebound means another possession for the Kings.  (I'd also point out that Boozer averages more personal fouls and more turnovers than Boozer does H2H.)

Randolph vs. Gasol:  Everyone's gut instinct is to say that Gasol wins this one, right?  Wrong.  See the stats above:  Randolph has consistently outscored and outrebounded Gasol in their H2H matchups.  These stats haven't come at the expense of winning, either, as Randolph has won 50% of the games he's played against Gasol.

Lewis vs. Gallinari:  I think Lewis takes this one, and Gallinari is certainly more of a question mark.  However, let's call this one about a push.

Lee vs. Casspi:  This one is pretty much a wash, too.  I'd lean toward Lee, as he's a better defender and because Casspi is *not* a shooting guard.  They don't have much of a head-to-head history, but in the one game they did play that Lee was healthy for, Casspi shot 1-for-8. 

Rose vs. Calderon:  By far, the biggest mismatch in the series.  You have one of the best scoring PGs in the league going up against perhaps the worst defensive PG in the league.  (Yes, worse than Mike Bibby).  Calderon allows opposing points guards to score 26.2% more than they normally do when he guards them, and was relegated to backup status (behind the immortal Jarrett Jack) in Toronto.  Calderon is a guy best suited to 25 minutes per game, which isn't going to cut it against Derrick Rose.

The Bench:

The two benches are similar in some ways.  They both have a defensive big man (Dampier vs. Lopez).  They both have a defensive stopper who can play multiple positions (Jeffries vs. Mbah a Moute).

However, Sacramento has a couple of things that Utah doesn't.  First:  the Kings have a backup PG.  Believe it or not, the Jazz don't.  Seriously.  They've got one of the worst starting PGs in the league, and he's backed up by...  Willie Green.  The same Willie Green who has never been a PG, and never will be a PG.  Sure, Jeff Teague is inexperienced, but he'll be playing 8 minutes a night.  Green is going to have to play, at minimum, 18, and probably closer to 23.  That's a HUGE advantage for the Kings.

Next, the Kings have dynamic scorers off the bench, that the Jazz can't compete with.  Francisco Garcia is a 6'7" shooting guard who causes matchup problems and who shoots 39.0% from three.  Richard Jefferson is a guy who is a season removed from averaging nearly 20 ppg in Milwaukee.  There's just no counterpart on the Jazz who can keep up with those guys.

Lastly, rebounding remains a recurring theme, as nobody on the Jazz bench can rebound with Drew Gooden and Eric Dampier up front.

Why the Kings win:

"Offense sells tickets, Defense wins games, Rebounding wins championships." - Pat Summit

The Kings are the best rebounding team in the CB-NBA, and they're going to consistently beat the Jazz on the boards.  On top of that, the Kings have an extremely efficient offense -- led by three legitimate stars -- that can score both in the post and from outside.  The Kings hold two huge matchup advantages here:  the bench and the point guard position.  Everywhere else is arguably fairly even, but when 20% of your starting lineup is getting dominated every night, it makes it hard to win games.  It makes it even harder when your bench is losing its nightly battles, as well.

[mgent]

EDIT - This article, Marion shut out in All-Defensive voting, also should've been included in the Clippers' P.R. package.

P.S. In case nobody wanted to read the above Here was the fact that most astounded me.

Marion held opposing small forwards to a league-low .392 shooting percentage this season. He was especially effective against the league's top scorers. Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant (.340), Cleveland's LeBron James (.417), the Lakers' Kobe Bryant (.385) and Denver's Carmelo Anthony (.172) all shot way below their norm when Marion was on the floor this season.

Thanks for both of those points.  Say, you don't have anything that shows Ben Wallace as the #1 defensive center do you?

[indeedproceed]

I kind of agree with THE Walker Wiggle. I think for the most part except for a few voters, most people have their minds made up who is winning a series well before the debate starts and the debate isn't changing their mind. For one, I know for a fact about 6-7 votes I stand zero chance of getting. None. Nunca. Nil. It's not happening. Then there is probably another 4-5 that I am pretty sure I have locked up. But then there are about another 4-5 that I am pretty sure will have made up their mind one way or the other before the voting even starts.

I mean I'm going to do what I can to debate tomorrow but I'm just not to sure how effective it will be in making people decide who they are going to vote for.

I don't know, I gave action a fair opportunity to defend his team before I made my vote, and honestly he ended up changing it. I planned to vote Milwaukee before then.

I think in some cases you're right, some of us are more malleable than others though.

Another for instance, I've pretty much been behind Dons team from the jump, I really liked the Gasol-Yao combo and I'm really rooting for Yao this season, so I want to believe he'll be okay. Now though I am pretty excited to see how he defends his back-court, and shows me that Pau Gasol is head and shoulders (talentwise, he actually is head and shoulders above in reality) Carlos Boozer.

[Roy H.]

I kind of agree with THE Walker Wiggle. I think for the most part except for a few voters, most people have their minds made up who is winning a series well before the debate starts and the debate isn't changing their mind. For one, I know for a fact about 6-7 votes I stand zero chance of getting. None. Nunca. Nil. It's not happening. Then there is probably another 4-5 that I am pretty sure I have locked up. But then there are about another 4-5 that I am pretty sure will have made up their mind one way or the other before the voting even starts.

I mean I'm going to do what I can to debate tomorrow but I'm just not to sure how effective it will be in making people decide who they are going to vote for.

I don't know, I gave action a fair opportunity to defend his team before I made my vote, and honestly he ended up changing it. I planned to vote Milwaukee before then.

I think in some cases you're right, some of us are more malleable than others though.

Another for instance, I've pretty much been behind Dons team from the jump, I really liked the Gasol-Yao combo and I'm really rooting for Yao this season, so I want to believe he'll be okay. Now though I am pretty excited to see how he defends his back-court, and shows me that Pau Gasol is head and shoulders (talentwise, he actually is head and shoulders above in reality) Carlos Boozer.

See, you can root for Yao all you want.  However, if you're being objective, you have to acknowledge that he was already in decline prior to his recent injuries, he's had two surgeries, and he talked about retiring due to them.  He's not going to be the same player that he was in his prime next year, especially not at age 30.

That's just a fact.  Anybody who disagrees is either letting preconceived notions or rooting interests cloud his / her analysis.

I don't expect Sacramento to win.  As nick says, most people have their mind made up, and for whatever reason, Gasol and Yao have more cache than Boozer and Randolph (and Rose).  However, Sacramento has three healthy stars to the Jazz' one (haven't people been trumpeting the "stars win" argument?), and they have the biggest mismatch in the series (Rose over Calderon).  However, as mgent has suggested, my players aren't "hot" right now, and they're not trendy (like the overrated -- especially at SF -- Mbah a Moute).  What my players are, though, is extremely talented.

[Roy H.]

By the way, the Infallible Kelley Dwyer ranked Yao as the 12th best center next season, behind Greg Oden, Al Jefferson, and Marc Gasol, among others.