Why New Orleans can achieve the upset: The Buccaneers are the better defensive team; shoot a better percentage from behind the arc and at the charity stripe; and still hold the edge on the glass despite Howard's league leading 13.2 rpg.
The Starting FiveBaron Davis vs. Jrue Holiday (Advantage Phoenix) However, Holiday is already a plus defender, who if he lacks Davis's strength still matches his size (6'4" with a 6"7"+ wingspan) and speed. He should be able to stay in front of Baron. (We'll concede the three point shot.) And while he's hardly the creator Davis is, he's also not the type of player Baron - a good defender who has a reputation for taking plays off - wants to guard for 30+ minutes a night, quick up the court, tough to stay in front of AND close out on. Post All-Star break Jrue posted a .49 FG% and .41 3PT%.
Eric Gordon vs. Wes Matthews (Advantage New Orleans) Matthews earned his eventual starting spot through defense but he's been given more than he can handle in Gordon. A gifted shooter with a quick release and beyond the arc range. Gordon also has a terrific first step, a nose for the basket and low center of gravity. Hampered by injuries and the Clippers malaise last season, he’s getting much need exposure as part of the National team and is due for a breakout in 2010.
Gerald Wallace vs John Salmons (Advantage New Orleans) But don't take it from me take it from Who:
Hedo Turkoglu and/or John Salmons will not be able to be effective offensively when matched up against Gerald Wallace. Wallace is too talented and too athletic defensively for them.
Gerald Wallace is also too quick for Turkoglu (slashing offense) and too strong for Salmons (post game + slashing) so he should have a good showing offensively too. Plus, he'll build a very nice rebounding differential against either of them.
Those matchups will hurt Phoenix considerably. Limits their offense. Makes them over-reliant on Baron Davis + Antawn Jamison. Makes them vulnerable and gives New Orleans a shot at winning the series.
Salmons will take a lot of jumpers and they tend to come on his own terms, often off the dribble, sometimes at the expense of ball movement. I'll also point out since he's on a team with Dwight Howard, that he's not good at passing into the post. He's a good man to man defender but sometimes you want your small forward to cheat and help too.
Al Horford vs. Antawn Jamison (Advantage New Orleans) Jamison has as a rule played for teams that finish in the bottom 5 of the league defensively and either disappoint in the postseason or miss it entirely. Both Horford (16.4 TR%) and McDyess (16.5 TR%) will outrebound Jamison (13.4 TR%) - although Antawn is a good rebounder given how often he floats around the perimeter and releases early on the fast break. He can't defend Horford in the post or match Al's offensive efficiency. He also give Phoenix a second liability at the charity stripe (.647 FT%) which will cost in hard fought, close games.
Dwight Howard vs. DeMarcus Cousins (Advantage Phoenix) Too young and brash to concede much to Howard even as he'll be regularly outmatched on both ends. Still Cousins tends to rise to a challenge, is a phenomenal rebounder in his own right and Howard's match in size. Cousins will only see 20-25 mpg a night, will most nights use all six fouls, and will be quickly spelled by McDyess who can also draw Howard away from the hoop with his midrange jumper.
The CoachStan Van Gundy vs Byron Scott (Advantage New Orleans) No coach in the league is in a better position to frustrate and foil a team built around Dwight Howard. Safe to say Van Gundy knows all Howard's tendencies - maybe even better than Dwight does.
The RotationHedo Turkoglu vs. Linas Kleiza (Advantage Phoenix)
Hedo Turkoglu vs. Gerald Wallace (Advantage New Orleans) Thoughts? I'm very low on Turkoglu's play so likely underrate him. On his third team in three seasons and coming off a terrible year. A great playmaker and clutch. But also a streak shooter, who struggles to contribute without the ball in his hands, and a poor man-to-man defender who plays with uneven intensity.
Raja Bell vs. Wes Matthews (Wash)
Raja Bell vs. Terrence Williams (Advantage New Orleans) Williams has an even higher upside than Matthews and can be thrilling to watch - but I don't trust his decision making in a tense playoff series or even know which position is his natural one.
Antonio McDyess vs. Greg Monroe (Advantage New Orleans)
Beno Udrih vs. Rudy Fernandez (Wash) Udrih will struggle to defend either Davis or Fernandez. On the other hand, it's absolutely a problem for Phoenix that the team has only one point guard on the roster, and their second option is a currently lost at sea two guard who's a nondescript playmaker even at his natural position. Udrih is one of the league's best reserve 1s, unselfish, a great catch and shoot player who always has his head in the game, a borderline starter and onetime NBA champion.
Linas Kleiza vs. Ed Davis (Advantage New Orleans)
Dealing with Dwight
Howard will get his. But taking a page from the Boston Celtics the Bucs are not going to double team him regardless of his effectiveness. At least he'll have to work for it and deal with a rotating cast of high intensity big men. New Orleans has plenty of size, plenty of fouls.
The Orlando Magic were anyway rarely at their best when running their offense through Howard (Who rates below average in isolation and only good in the post). His repertoire is too limited, and his decisions with the ball are often rushed. Where he's lethal is in the pick in roll. The Bucs feature a strong pick and roll defense, and are anyway all too happy to see the ball end up with the roll man Baron Davis who's a far shakier and more indiscriminate shooter than Jameer Nelson (.406 FG% .277 3P%).
Elsewhere the Bucs will stay home and force Phoenix to make jumpshots. Fun fact, Phoenix features four sub-40% shooters in its rotation (Davis, Turkoglu, Fernandez and Williams) and a fifth DeShawn Stevenson ready to come off the bench in an emergency and throw a shot off the front rim. Expect particularly chippy, physical defense by Wallace, Horford, and Bell on Jamison, Turkoglu and the Gorillas' rookies.
On offense, Crash, Gordon and Holiday will challenge Howard at the rim. And Cousins' 8.3 fouls drawn per 40 in his only college season was the highest rate of any players drafted in the past five years. But a rookie isn't going to get the reigning Defensive Player of the year into foul trouble by himself so it will have to be a team effort.
Topic: CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference (Read 52191 times)