Official Discuss your CB Draft team

[StartOrien]

The problem with rookies is that they *don't* always outplay veterans, and they certainly don't always live up to expectations.

Look at last year's lottery.  It had:

2. Haseem Thabeet
6. Jonny Flynn
8. Jordan Hill
9. DeMar DeRozan
11. Terrence Williams
12. Gerald Henderson
14. Earl Clark

Even James Harden, a guy people are high on, had a very subdued rookie season in terms of scoring.  It's easy to see, then, why people might not be giving the #7 and #13 picks this year a lot of credit.  They could very well be great as rookies, but there's at least a 50% shot that they're non-factors.

At the same time, don't you have to think about what you need out of these rookies? For example, Thabeet was pretty universally accepted as a huge flop last season for Memphis, but at the same time don't you think he could've carved out a role on most contenders with his height and shot blocking skills alone?

And I don't mean this in a "Well if he was aside Garnett maybe he would...." kind of sense, I'm saying if Thabeet brought the same skills he brought to Memphis this season to a team like Cleveland, couldn't he have played ten to fifteen minutes?

[Roy H.]

The problem with rookies is that they *don't* always outplay veterans, and they certainly don't always live up to expectations.

Look at last year's lottery.  It had:

2. Haseem Thabeet
6. Jonny Flynn
8. Jordan Hill
9. DeMar DeRozan
11. Terrence Williams
12. Gerald Henderson
14. Earl Clark

Even James Harden, a guy people are high on, had a very subdued rookie season in terms of scoring.  It's easy to see, then, why people might not be giving the #7 and #13 picks this year a lot of credit.  They could very well be great as rookies, but there's at least a 50% shot that they're non-factors.

Earl Clark was the only disappointment on that list. Em, maybe T-Williams too.

The rest performed as expected.

Jordan Hill improved considerably throughout the year and was performing above expectations by year's end.

Does Haseem Thabeet belong in a contender's rotation?  What about Gerald Henderson?  (35.6% from the field)

Thabeet and Henderson (and Williams and Clark and the others mentioned, as well) may eventually become excellent players, but as rookies they were decidedly mediocre in their production, and even worse in their grasp of fundamentals.  Even a raging success story like Dejuan Blair barely played in the playoffs.  Why?  Because rookies can rarely be counted on their first year.

[Roy H.]

The problem with rookies is that they *don't* always outplay veterans, and they certainly don't always live up to expectations.

Look at last year's lottery.  It had:

2. Haseem Thabeet
6. Jonny Flynn
8. Jordan Hill
9. DeMar DeRozan
11. Terrence Williams
12. Gerald Henderson
14. Earl Clark

Even James Harden, a guy people are high on, had a very subdued rookie season in terms of scoring.  It's easy to see, then, why people might not be giving the #7 and #13 picks this year a lot of credit.  They could very well be great as rookies, but there's at least a 50% shot that they're non-factors.

At the same time, don't you have to think about what you need out of these rookies? For example, Thabeet was pretty universally accepted as a huge flop last season for Memphis, but at the same time don't you think he could've carved out a role on most contenders with his height and shot blocking skills alone?

And I don't mean this in a "Well if he was aside Garnett maybe he would...." kind of sense, I'm saying if Thabeet brought the same skills he brought to Memphis this season to a team like Cleveland, couldn't he have played ten to fifteen minutes?

I don't think there's any way that Haseem Thabeet could have survived 10 - 15 minutes in Cleveland's rotation.

[Donoghus]

If you're not going for "Team of the Future", you really need to pick & choose your spots when deciding to take a rookie.  I think they're fine if you have them coming off the bench and there is a bit of a college track record to go by.  I think it looks better to ween a rookie along coming off the bench than trying to draft and plug right into a starting lineup and then expect your team to get serious contender props.  I'm not saying it can't be done but it has to be done and justified extremely well.

When was the last time a starting rookie had a prominent role on a contending team?

Tiago Splitter with San An will be the first time in a while I think.

I can't come up with many instances off the top of my head but I think if you plug a rookie in with the right guys around him such as an alpha dog and a couple of Top 50-75 guys, the possbility exists that it could work.  In a 30 team league like this, its close to impossible but if there was contraction, I could see it happening.  

[Who]

The problem with rookies is that they *don't* always outplay veterans, and they certainly don't always live up to expectations.

Look at last year's lottery.  It had:

2. Haseem Thabeet
6. Jonny Flynn
8. Jordan Hill
9. DeMar DeRozan
11. Terrence Williams
12. Gerald Henderson
14. Earl Clark

Even James Harden, a guy people are high on, had a very subdued rookie season in terms of scoring.  It's easy to see, then, why people might not be giving the #7 and #13 picks this year a lot of credit.  They could very well be great as rookies, but there's at least a 50% shot that they're non-factors.

Earl Clark was the only disappointment on that list. Em, maybe T-Williams too.

The rest performed as expected.

Jordan Hill improved considerably throughout the year and was performing above expectations by year's end.

Does Haseem Thabeet belong in a contender's rotation?  What about Gerald Henderson?  (35.6% from the field)

Thabeet and Henderson (and Williams and Clark and the others mentioned, as well) may eventually become excellent players, but as rookies they were decidedly mediocre in their production, and even worse in their grasp of fundamentals.  Even a raging success story like Dejuan Blair barely played in the playoffs.  Why?  Because rookies can rarely be counted on their first year.

Hasheem Thabeet definitely could have been a rotation player on a contender last season. Thabeet was slightly above average defensively, a solid rebounder and a very efficient garbage man offensively. That is a rotation worthy player.

I disagree with everyone who feels Thabeet played badly last season. I thought he did a solid job for the Grizzlies and was their best bench player last season. The only reason he got so little court time was because of Marc Gasol who was a top ten center last season.

Gerald Henderson could have been a serviceable (below average) fourth wing in the depth chart but ideally would be a fifth or sixth wing on a contender. Ditto for T-Williams.

[nickagneta]

But history shows that very few rookies become real difference making players their first years and that some years, none do that first year.

I'd be shocked (but interested) to be pointed in the direction of a draft that produced zero impact rookies. Safe to say, we'll have at least half a dozen NBA starters out of the gates. That's been the modern trend. And even more rotation players. Even if we limit the list to 2010 playoff teams, we're still left to talk about, Jennings, Harden, Lawson, Matthews, Ibaka and Taj Gibson.

2006 the draft yielded one impact rookie, Brandon Roy. The rest of the players, their rookie years were players you would not want as a player in the top 9 of your rotation.

2002 Yao and Amare were like the only 2 players you would have wanted in a regular rotation as a rookie.

2000 Mike Miller won the Rookie of the Year award and was at best, good enough to be a 6th or 7th player on a good team.

Maybe I went overboard saying none, but the amount of drafts that produce certifiably several NBA starting players or rotational players is about one in three or so. Most produce a couple to three maybe four that first year.

So, in an exercise like this I agree with wdleehi. It's good to have them if you are going to have a "Future" team or if like last year with the Crotornats, you are going to have them as end of the bench filler to ween into the game, but otherwise, if you are using them as rotational players on a team that you believe is contending now, I'm holding that against your team and writing in their contributions as non significant.

[indeedproceed]

But history shows that very few rookies become real difference making players their first years and that some years, none do that first year.

I'd be shocked (but interested) to be pointed in the direction of a draft that produced zero impact rookies. Safe to say, we'll have at least half a dozen NBA starters out of the gates. That's been the modern trend. And even more rotation players. Even if we limit the list to 2010 playoff teams, we're still left to talk about, Jennings, Harden, Lawson, Matthews, Ibaka and Taj Gibson.

2006 the draft yielded one impact rookie, Brandon Roy. The rest of the players, their rookie years were players you would not want as a player in the top 9 of your rotation.

2002 Yao and Amare were like the only 2 players you would have wanted in a regular rotation as a rookie.

2000 Mike Miller won the Rookie of the Year award and was at best, good enough to be a 6th or 7th player on a good team.

Maybe I went overboard saying none, but the amount of drafts that produce certifiably several NBA starting players or rotational players is about one in three or so. Most produce a couple to three maybe four that first year.

So, in an exercise like this I agree with wdleehi. It's good to have them if you are going to have a "Future" team or if like last year with the Crotornats, you are going to have them as end of the bench filler to ween into the game, but otherwise, if you are using them as rotational players on a team that you believe is contending now, I'm holding that against your team and writing in their contributions as non significant.

In the 2007-2008 season Glen Davis averaged 8.1 minutes per contest in the post season and the Celtics won a title. While he didn't swing any games it doesn't seem like he hurt them much either. How do you see that kind of production in this kind of league? Could a player like Glen Davis come in and play 7-10 minutes a night for a champion?

[Roy H.]

But history shows that very few rookies become real difference making players their first years and that some years, none do that first year.

I'd be shocked (but interested) to be pointed in the direction of a draft that produced zero impact rookies. Safe to say, we'll have at least half a dozen NBA starters out of the gates. That's been the modern trend. And even more rotation players. Even if we limit the list to 2010 playoff teams, we're still left to talk about, Jennings, Harden, Lawson, Matthews, Ibaka and Taj Gibson.

2006 the draft yielded one impact rookie, Brandon Roy. The rest of the players, their rookie years were players you would not want as a player in the top 9 of your rotation.

2002 Yao and Amare were like the only 2 players you would have wanted in a regular rotation as a rookie.

2000 Mike Miller won the Rookie of the Year award and was at best, good enough to be a 6th or 7th player on a good team.

Maybe I went overboard saying none, but the amount of drafts that produce certifiably several NBA starting players or rotational players is about one in three or so. Most produce a couple to three maybe four that first year.

So, in an exercise like this I agree with wdleehi. It's good to have them if you are going to have a "Future" team or if like last year with the Crotornats, you are going to have them as end of the bench filler to ween into the game, but otherwise, if you are using them as rotational players on a team that you believe is contending now, I'm holding that against your team and writing in their contributions as non significant.

In the 2007-2008 season Glen Davis averaged 8.1 minutes per contest in the post season and the Celtics won a title. While he didn't swing any games it doesn't seem like he hurt them much either. How do you see that kind of production in this kind of league? Could a player like Glen Davis come in and play 7-10 minutes a night for a champion?

Keep in mind that Glen Davis also got 9 DNP-CDs during that playoff run.  In other words, he wasn't playing 8 minutes per contest, he was playing 8 minutes per game that Doc felt comfortable playing him in / was forced to play him in.  Several of the games he saw big minutes in were blowouts.

If somebody is relying upon the rookie equivalent of BBD to be a key player in their playoff rotation, I think it would be a mistake.

[StartOrien]

Leon Powe also played 11.7 minutes per game for that team.

[StartOrien]

I think at the end it's can be too tough to assess. In recent history, outside of Tim Duncan, has there ever been a highly touted rookie that joined a contender?

[Who]

I think at the end it's can be too tough to assess. In recent history, outside of Tim Duncan, has there ever been a highly touted rookie that joined a contender?

Darko!

[KCattheStripe]

I think at the end it's can be too tough to assess. In recent history, outside of Tim Duncan, has there ever been a highly touted rookie that joined a contender?

Darko!

Dwayne Wade's team made the playoffs, Kobe was drafted by the Lakers same year Shaq went.

[StartOrien]

I also don't understand some of the T-Will hate.

Per 36 averaged 13.4 points, 4.6 assists, 7.1 rebounds

[Who]

I also don't understand some of the T-Will hate.

Per 36 averaged 13.4 points, 4.6 assists, 7.1 rebounds

He was a large offensive liability last season (TS% 46% on 8.5 shot attempts in 22-23mpg) and the rest of his game didn't make up for that negative.

T-Williams is still a very interesting long term prospect but he has some major hurdles to work through.

[The Walker Wiggle]

2006 the draft yielded one impact rookie, Brandon Roy. The rest of the players, their rookie years were players you would not want as a player in the top 9 of your rotation.

What if you're other option at point guard was Sebastian Telfair...

Roy was the only hands down starter but you wouldn't have included, Bargnani, Aldridge, Gay, Foye, Milsap Garbajosa, etc. in your top nine rotation?

During the 2006-2007 season the NBA Champion Spurs 9th man Fabricio Oberto, appeared in 79 games, started 33, and averaged 4.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.3 blocks, and 17.3 minutes.

Struggling rookie Tyrus Thomas appeared in 72 games, started 4, averaged 5.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 13.4 minutes.

The average NBA player in 2007 averaged 8.2 points on 46% shooting, 20.6 minutes, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists.