Link so you can see things easierMethodology: I assembled each players per 48 minutes stats (from ESPN.com), then using excel I divided them all by 48 (excepting the FG%, 3pt%, and FT%), then multiplied them by the minutes anticipated.
Example: LeBron's FGA's every 48 minutes is 24.7, I would take that number and divide by 48 (equals .5148). That is his FG per minute rate. Then, I multiply that by the anticipated (rounded) minutes per game I have in my teams' strategy (38 minutes per game), which equals 19.6 FG's per game. To double check for accuracy, when compared against LeBron's actual 20.1 FG's over 39 minutes played in 2009-2010, it checks out.
Notes on my numbers/anticipated numbers: -The rows labeled "NBA AVE" and "Cavs AVE" are the total averages of all 30 NBA teams, and the Cavs team averages for 09-10, respectively.
-The only players with a substantial uptick in numbers are Ersan Ilyasova (23 to 29 MPG) and Brandon Jennings (32 to 36 MPG). This is important because the biggest problem with just using per 48 or per minute stats to extrapolate data is when you drastically change a players' minutes. Good example: In 2006/2007 Gerald Green played 22 MPG, but scored at a 22 points per 48 minutes rate. WOuld he have managed to continue that rate at 38 minutes per game? Because I kept players mostly within their current roles, I think the data is valid.
-The one place where you could call into account my projected production is Von Wafer. I had to use statistics from 2008-2009. His points per 48 is 23.9, which sets him in the company of Luke Ridnour, Rodney Stuckey, and Jerryd Bayless as far as scoring goes, which I think is about right considering Von Wafer is only going to be out there for 16 minutes per game (he played 19 MPG in 08-09).
-The FG, 3pt, and FT percentages for my team as a whole (as opposed to individually) are correctly weighted. To most people that won't matter, but to some, I'm sure it might.
Conclusions: 1) This comment from nick has rankled at me:
There you have it. A team that defensively will regularly keep teams under 90 points and will struggle to score 80 because teams will take away everything but LeBron and LeBron will have to average 50 points a game so that his team can score 90.
I don't think Nick could be more wrong here, and I think I proved it above. I managed to get to 101ppg, which is more than the average NBA team without drastically changing anyone's roles from things that they did last season. On top of that, I think that number is a considerable underestimation for the following reasons:
a) I did not take into account any statistics from my rookies. I expect somewhere between 7-10 ppg combined between the 3 of them. I did not think it would be genuine to make up numbers though on players who have never played in an NBA game.
b) I expect 12-15 points per night from Mike Miller. His FG's attempted per 48 were lower than everyone except Louis Amundson at 11.5 FGp48. (Amundson was 11.3). That will change, because Miller will be on a winning team, with a defined plan. Miller has been on losing teams that were non-competitive, and he's showed it in his play. LeBron should be able to convince him to shoot more, and with Jennings/LeBron creating shots for him instead of Shaun Livingston or Randy Foye, Miller should get a lot more open looks.
c) LeBron James has historically created more open looks, esp 3pt shots, for his teammates than they have enjoyed before. Players who have improved their 3pt shooting % under LeBron: Mo Williams, Anthony Parker (but only by one percent or so), Delonte West
-because in part of point 'c' and because Ilyasova will now have one complete year with the NBA 3 instead of the Euro 3, Ilyasova's 3pt % should jump up considerably, increasing his scoring.
2) So while it is true, LeBron will need to have another MVP-type season, the supporting cast I've put around him, despite being thin, is one that will ably play to his strengths. Before any kind of improvement from anyone on my roster, or any production at all from the 18 combined minutes I have my rookies playing, I've got my squad within a half a point of last season's cavs roster. With the modest and completely achievable improvements I anticipated above, my boys should easily exceed the Cavs production of 09-10. That's science.
Honestly, when you look at it in context, the whole picture, I think some people are making some poor assumptions. 1) I think some are over valuing the Cavs from last season. 2) I think some are undervaluing my team, because they're looking too hard at what they assume they CAN'T do, instead of looking honestly at what they've already proven they CAN do.
Topic: 2010 CB Draft: Central Division Press Conferences (Read 84962 times)