I still think that most of this board has wildly too high expectations of what we can get for Rasheed's deal. It'd be one thing if he was a 20 million dollar expiring deal, but for the 6-7 million dollar price tag, teams are only really going to dump players they have no interest in retaining. Thus, we're likely not getting given Shane Battier. Saving 6 million a year doesn't justify doing that for Houston.
The only way I see that changing is if we start throwing in more (like BBD), and then we're starting to hurt the team in other ways.
Like I said in my first post, I'd love to be pleasantly surprised and see some team give us a nice 3 like Batter for Rasheed. But I don't see that happening. If Danny starts to find that's the case, I'd like him to trade for Posey. I think we'd be a better team with him than without him.
And while I don't expect N.O. to give us an unprotected pick, I'd take a lottery protected pick from them. It could be an OK asset to have in the future.
And I will keep saying that you are mistaking summer time patience(remember we are still almost three months away from the start of the season and two months from training camp) with a lack of value that Rasheed's contract can bring.
Remember, when he is traded, Gaffney's and Lafayette's non guaranteed contracts will probably also go and that with the combined amount of contract worth and the fact a team could send up to 25% and $100K more than that level back to the Celtics, you are talking about a massive savings to a team that could move that amount of money closer to or under the luxury tax.
Houston, for instance, is $8.3 million of the luxury tax. Moving the max amount of salary they could to the Celtics, nearly $9.9 million, would mean not having to pay $9.9 million in salary, not having to pay $8.3 million in luxury tax and becoming eligible for possibly over $4 million in luxury escrow payments. That's means $22.2 million more in the owner's pockets in Houston.
That is gigantic incentive to do a Rasheed deal with Boston and one a team is probably going to do before the season starts.
I hope you're right.
However, unlike the summer time patience of the free agent market (like with Shaq, where we waited for him to realize that he wasn't getting more than the minimum from anyone), what type of market is going to develop for Sheed?
Any team looking to dump salary already knows darn well what salary they have to dump.
But even more than that, I'm not sold that teams are willing to give away good players for salary cap relief unless one of the following three scenarios take place:
1) The team has zero hope that they can make the playoffs. If that's the case, we can cross off all but a handful of teams and guys like Shane Battier off the list.
2) The player has a long deal. And the longer, the more likely they are to trade. However, many of the guys we're excited about on the board (Battier and Prince) only have 1 year left and thus don't give their teams that much savings. I think the more likely player that Detroit would be willing to dump is Hamilton, but he has three years left and could screw Danny's plans in the summer of 2012.
3) We throw in something nice in addition. A pick might do it. Perk or BBD probably would definitely do it.
Ultimately, the reason that the Posey deal is appealing to me is that he's a player the New Orlean's probably doesn't see itself needing to be a playoff team, so they don't have to disappoint a fan base trading him away. He also only has a two year deal, so he fits in with the time frame. And not only would we not have to give up anything in addition to Sheed, we could probably get some sort of protected first round pick from them.
Again, I don't expect him to be '08 Posey, but we wouldn't need him to be. With our big men up front, we won't need him to play the 4. And with Daniels, Wafer, and Bradley around, he won't have to play the 2. All he'd do is play 15 mpg or so during the regular season backing up PP, and probably 10 mpg in the playoffs. And I think he can probably still do that.