Another look at Miami's depth

[Roy Hobbs]

Also, of course, people are forgetting about the flip-side of Miami playing Wade at PG:  opposing teams would either have to defend him with their PG, or ask their PG to defend Mike Miller, who is what, 6'8"?

And there is a flipside to that. If the Heat want to take advantage of a smaller player, would James' ego be content to become a spectator watching post ups for Wade? Or worst yet, would James and Wade be appreciative of watching Miller go to work in the post?

I think in this first year together, they'll be fine.  Literally every single free agent that has signed with them has left millions of dollars on the table.  They're all buying into an "ubuntu" mindset, both with their words and their wallets.  Because of that, I think they'll be able to sacrifice touches for wins.  (Also, of course, Miller doesn't have to get the ball in the post all season.  If he's regularly scoring in the post on 6'1" point guards, teams will adjust, which will open things up further for Wade and Lebron.)

[MBunge]

With the signing of James Jones, they can now start Mike Miller, if they choose:

C: J. Anthony / Big Z / Magloire / D. Pittman (r)
PF: Bosh / Haslem / J. Howard / J. Varnado (r)
SF: Lebron / J. Jones / Da'Sean Butler (r)
SG: M. Miller / (Jones)
PG: D. Wade / Chalmers / Arroyo

A bench of Big Z, Haslem, Jones, and Chalmers is pretty competent.  Lebron / Wade won't have much of a problem initiating the offense, and Wade can defend the vast majority of point guards.

Uh, Joel Anthony averaged 2.7 points and 3.1 boards a game during the regular season, 2.6 points and 1.8 boards in the playoffs and he'll be 28 years old when next season starts, so he ain't getting any better. No team that starts Joel Anthony at center will win 65 games.  James Jones averaged 4.1 points and 1.3 boards in the regular season.  In the playoffs he averaged 2 points, 0 boards, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 1 turnover a game.

Secondly, in Miami last year, Chalmers and Arroyo played a combined 49 minutes a game.  Which means Wade played a total of 0 minutes at point guard.

Mike

In order:

1.  Joel Anthony is an excellent shot blocker and defender.  The Heat went 13-3 last season in games that he started.  He's certainly not an elite player, but he'll be good enough defending the paint.

2.  Jones has been slowed by injury, but he's still one of the best three point shooters in the league.  He's capable of providing legitimate bench minutes, which is all that the Heat needs.

3.  Wade played 4% of the Heat's point guard minutes last year.  Due to the way the Heat roster was constructed, he was often playing alongside a smaller player.  However, he had the ball in his hands on the majority of offensive possessions, and he's more than capable of defending point guards.  I mean, we're talking about one of the most athletic guards in the NBA.  Wade has played plenty of point guard in the past, including 24% of the Heat's point guard minutes in the 2009 playoffs, etc.

I mean, if the arguments we're making against the Heat are "their center doesn't score a lot" and "Dwayne Wade can't guard 5% of the point guards in the league at a great level", then the NBA may as well just hand the Heat the championship now.

In order,

1.  Last regular season, Joel Anthony averaged 16.5 minutes and 1.4 blocks a game.  In the 2005-2006 regular season, Kendrick Perkins averaged 19.6 minutes and 1.5 blocks a game.  He was also a better scorer and rebounder than Anthony...AND STILL COULDN'T BEAT OUT MARK BLOUNT TO START on a Celtic team that won 33 games.  Was Perkins an excellent defender in 2005-2006?

2.  James Jones can shoot the 3.  However, during his best season as a scorer, he only averaged 9.3 points a game and that was playing nearly 24 minutes a game with known inflater of teammate stats Steve Nash.  His career scoring average is 6.4 points a game and he's played in fewer than 60 games each of the last three seasons.

3. You keep saying Wade can easily defend opposing point guards, even though he's never done it for any meaningful amount of time at any point in his career.  When you have no evidence to support an opinion, it's probably best to not be so absolute in that conviction.

Mike

[Greenbean]

Just in the East, who on that team is going to keep Rondo or Derrick Rose out of the middle or Dwight Howard off the boards?

Simple, Wade backs off Rondo and Rose to make them shoot jumpers (more effective on Rondo than Rose but Rose doesn't have the big 3 to pass to) and play Orlando straight man with no help on Howard like the C's did.  Haslem can body Howard and make him try to score from 8-10 feet out.  Heat now have the defenders to stay with their men on the perimeter or can cover the open ground if they cheat a bit to help on Howard.

Wade can defend PGs as well as anyone.  I don't know how that could be seen as a matchup problem for them.

How many minutes has Wade spent defending PGs in his entire NBA career?  I know he spent 0 minutes doing so last season.

Mike

Again, he was not asked to.  If you think Dwayne Wade doesn't have the physical tools and defensive ability to guard PGs then you must be smoking something.

Being a good to great defender at the 2 does not automatically make you a good to great defender at the 1.  Wade and LeBron are amazing players, but they're not magical fairies who can just solve every matchup problem with a wave of their wands.

Mike

Nothing magical about being 6' 4" and one of the most freakishly athletic players in the NBA.  That's not a matchup problem against PGs.  If he can't guard NBA PGs then I'll never claim to know anything about basketball again.  What makes you think he couldnt?  He's not quick enough?  Not big enough?  There is no possible reasoning that would make sense.

Just in the East, who on that team is going to keep Rondo or Derrick Rose out of the middle or Dwight Howard off the boards?

Simple, Wade backs off Rondo and Rose to make them shoot jumpers (more effective on Rondo than Rose but Rose doesn't have the big 3 to pass to) and play Orlando straight man with no help on Howard like the C's did.  Haslem can body Howard and make him try to score from 8-10 feet out.  Heat now have the defenders to stay with their men on the perimeter or can cover the open ground if they cheat a bit to help on Howard.

Wade can defend PGs as well as anyone.  I don't know how that could be seen as a matchup problem for them.

How many minutes has Wade spent defending PGs in his entire NBA career?  I know he spent 0 minutes doing so last season.

Mike

Again, he was not asked to.  If you think Dwayne Wade doesn't have the physical tools and defensive ability to guard PGs then you must be smoking something.

This is rediculous. Haslem cannot play Dwight Howard one on one. There are only a small handful of guys in the league who can do so. Dwayne Wade cannot guard point guards for an entire game. Even if he can stay in front of Rose or Rondo, there are matchup problems everywhere when you do that. It is that simple.

They are limited defeinsively as constructed.

Lets take the Celtics versus a projected Heat lineup:

Rondo vs Wade
Allen vs Mike Miller
Pierce vs LeBron
KG vs Bosh
O'Neal vs (one of their Centers)

Where are the big matchup problems again?  I do not see them at all.  And if the Heat go small with Bosh at C and Haslem at PF we have matchup problems, with some more size and rebounding, but they'd probably run us out of the gym with their speed.


Or the Bulls?

Rose vs Wade
Korver/Brewer vs Miller
Deng vs LeBron
Boozer vs Bosh
Noah vs (Heat Center)

Again, not seeing big matchup problems (outside of the C position where Bulls have a big advantage boarding).


I don't get where these major matchup issues are for this team.

You must be forgetting about Chris Bosh the defender.

Or the fact that you dont even have a player listed at the center position indicating literally ANY center can d up Noah or Jermaine Oneal.

The Heat will be great if LeBron and Wade combined can defend four positions at a time while still being the force they have always been offensively.

Certainly I am not counting this out becasue they are amazing basketball players but that is asking alot.

[MBunge]

Also, of course, people are forgetting about the flip-side of Miami playing Wade at PG:  opposing teams would either have to defend him with their PG, or ask their PG to defend Mike Miller, who is what, 6'8"?

The thought of Mike Miller trying to chase him around screens has already probably caused Ray Allen to drool so much he's become dehydrated.  Is Mike Miller going to guard Kobe?  Forget Kobe, Mike Miller is going to guard Ben Gordon?  Andre Iguodala?  Vince Carter?  Manu Ginobili?  Joe Johnson?  Brandon Roy?

Mike

[Roy Hobbs]

[quote author=Ro
In order,

1.  Last regular season, Joel Anthony averaged 16.5 minutes and 1.4 blocks a game.  In the 2005-2006 regular season, Kendrick Perkins averaged 19.6 minutes and 1.5 blocks a game.  He was also a better scorer and rebounder than Anthony...AND STILL COULDN'T BEAT OUT MARK BLOUNT TO START on a Celtic team that won 33 games.  Was Perkins an excellent defender in 2005-2006?

2.  James Jones can shoot the 3.  However, during his best season as a scorer, he only averaged 9.3 points a game and that was playing nearly 24 minutes a game with known inflater of teammate stats Steve Nash.  His career scoring average is 6.4 points a game and he's played in fewer than 60 games each of the last three seasons.

3. You keep saying Wade can easily defend opposing point guards, even though he's never done it for any meaningful amount of time at any point in his career.  When you have no evidence to support an opinion, it's probably best to not be so absolute in that conviction.

Mike

I'm sorry, I don't understand your first point.  Because Joel Anthony's stats are like another player's, that means they're the same caliber of defender?  And yeah, actually, Perk was a pretty decent defender in 2006, although he obviously got better.  Again, though, this argument makes no sense.  I know Anthony is a good defender because I watched a lot of Miami games, not because of how his stats compare to another player's stats from four seasons ago.

Regarding Jones, he's a bench player.  The ability to score a handful of points and stretch the floor is all he needs to be able to do.

I'm confused by the notion that Wade can't defend point guards.  Again, he's one of the quickest, most athletic guards in the NBA.  How many point guards are faster / more athletic than he is?  Rondo.  Maybe Westbrook?  Barbosa, if you consider him a PG.  Arguably Chris Paul.  Who else do you have on your list?  I'd say that Wade is more athletic than either of Rose or Deron, for instance, so there's no reason he couldn't guard them.

As for Miller, are you going by his actual game, or by the fact that he's a weird looking white guy?  He's been defending SGs his entire career, including playing 21% of the Wizards' total minutes at SG last season.  The year before, he played 22% of the Twolves total minutes at SG.  You're acting like the guy will be playing out of position, which he clearly won't be.

[nickagneta]

Miami is going to be a great regular season team that will have trouble with big, experienced teams that have talent and have been together. The Lakers, the Spurs, the Celtics, Denver and Orlando will cause them problems.

They will waltz through the regular season. But when they hit the playoffs they will need quality depth to win and I just don't believe they have it. They are going to end up running the LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Haslem quintet into the ground and I don't see Bosh, Haslem, Z being able to shut down stars up front in seven game series.

They are still a year away from a title.

[MBunge]

[quote author=Ro
In order,

1.  Last regular season, Joel Anthony averaged 16.5 minutes and 1.4 blocks a game.  In the 2005-2006 regular season, Kendrick Perkins averaged 19.6 minutes and 1.5 blocks a game.  He was also a better scorer and rebounder than Anthony...AND STILL COULDN'T BEAT OUT MARK BLOUNT TO START on a Celtic team that won 33 games.  Was Perkins an excellent defender in 2005-2006?

2.  James Jones can shoot the 3.  However, during his best season as a scorer, he only averaged 9.3 points a game and that was playing nearly 24 minutes a game with known inflater of teammate stats Steve Nash.  His career scoring average is 6.4 points a game and he's played in fewer than 60 games each of the last three seasons.

3. You keep saying Wade can easily defend opposing point guards, even though he's never done it for any meaningful amount of time at any point in his career.  When you have no evidence to support an opinion, it's probably best to not be so absolute in that conviction.

Mike

I'm sorry, I don't understand your first point.  Because Joel Anthony's stats are like another player's, that means they're the same caliber of defender?  And yeah, actually, Perk was a pretty decent defender in 2006, although he obviously got better.  Again, though, this argument makes no sense.  I know Anthony is a good defender because I watched a lot of Miami games, not because of how his stats compare to another player's stats from four seasons ago.

Regarding Jones, he's a bench player.  The ability to score a handful of points and stretch the floor is all he needs to be able to do.

I'm confused by the notion that Wade can't defend point guards.  Again, he's one of the quickest, most athletic guards in the NBA.  How many point guards are faster / more athletic than he is?  Rondo.  Maybe Westbrook?  Barbosa, if you consider him a PG.  Arguably Chris Paul.  Who else do you have on your list?  I'd say that Wade is more athletic than either of Rose or Deron, for instance, so there's no reason he couldn't guard them.

As for Miller, are you going by his actual game, or by the fact that he's a weird looking white guy?  He's been defending SGs his entire career, including playing 21% of the Wizards' total minutes at SG last season.  The year before, he played 22% of the Twolves total minutes at SG.  You're acting like the guy will be playing out of position, which he clearly won't be.

You didn't say Joel Anthony was a "good" defender.  You said he was an "excellent" defender.  There's a big difference between those two things, especially if defense is supposed to be that players main contribution to the team.  If you're going to change your position, at least admit you were wrong.

If you don't understand that being a guick, athletic shooting guard is different from being a quick, athletic point guard, I can't help you.  Wade has spent virtually no time defending PGs during his entire time in the NBA.  To assume that he'll be able to do it and do it very well is a much bigger leap than you seem capable of understanding.

And considering how terrible defensively Minnesota was 2 years ago and the Wiz were this past year, I'm not sure you're making the argument for Miller you think you're making.

Mike

[Mr October]

The Heat are looking like a really solid team, certainly a title contender.

However I also think they are going to have trouble defending PGs and the paint/post in general/center specifically.

They have absolutely no 1 on 1 answer for Dwight Howard. KG can still get the better of Bosh and certainly Haslem in a series. JO guarded by Ilgauskas? Laughable.

If Wade is using his energy to contain Rondo and other elite PGs, where will he find his energy on offense?

Who is going to chase Ray Allen around screens? Mike Miller?

The games against the Celtics and Miami will be great, but I have more faith in the Celtics' all around game.

[Who]

James Jones was a very nice signing.

Miami are pretty much set on the wings now with Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Mike Miller as rotation players. Then a shooter in James Jones and a decent rookie in Da'Sean Butler.

I am a little disappointed they failed to add a defensive presence as a borderline rotation player or deep reserve though (eg Raja Bell). I very much liked the idea of putting Wade at the point and LeBron at the four alongside two wing players one of whom who would be a stopper. That defensive player would have allowed them to matchup better against teams with a quality wing scorer + allowed them to use those types of lineups more often if they so wished.

[MBunge]

I very much liked the idea of putting Wade at the point and LeBron at the four alongside two wing players one of whom who would be a stopper. That defensive player would have allowed them to matchup better against teams with a quality wing scorer + allowed them to use those types of lineups more often if they so wished.

LeBron ain't playing much at the 4.  It's one thing to be bigger and stronger than other 3s.  It's another thing to spend a lot of time banging in the post with guys who are the same size or bigger.

mike

[Lucky17]

You can add Jamaal Magloire to their C rotation.

http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/68233/20100719/heat_re_sign_jamaal_magloire/

Another big body, and 6 hard fouls.

[the_Bird]

Good.  Let them sign Magliore.

I don't care why Jermaine O'Neil sucked against us in the playoffs.  Injury, Perk's D, or maybe he just sucks now (we'll find out).

Fact is, Jermaine O'Neil had perhaps the worst playoff series I've ever seen a starting player have, and Magliore got on the court for less than five minutes.  Not per game; total.  What's that say about exactly how bad Magliore himself sucks these days?  What's that say about the liklihood of Miami signing Shaq, if they're giving roster spots to someone who the head coach clearly had zero confidence in?

Let's just say I'm not getting too stressed out about his presence on Miami's bench.

[Roy Hobbs]

Good.  Let them sign Magliore.

I don't care why Jermaine O'Neil sucked against us in the playoffs.  Injury, Perk's D, or maybe he just sucks now (we'll find out).

Fact is, Jermaine O'Neil had perhaps the worst playoff series I've ever seen a starting player have, and Magliore got on the court for less than five minutes.  Not per game; total.  What's that say about exactly how bad Magliore himself sucks these days?  What's that say about the liklihood of Miami signing Shaq, if they're giving roster spots to someone who the head coach clearly had zero confidence in?

Let's just say I'm not getting too stressed out about his presence on Miami's bench.

Pat Riley basically said he's there for leadership and hard work.  I doubt he sees very much court time at all unless there's an injury.

[moiso]

Miami is going to be a great regular season team that will have trouble with big, experienced teams that have talent and have been together. The Lakers, the Spurs, the Celtics, Denver and Orlando will cause them problems.

They will waltz through the regular season. But when they hit the playoffs they will need quality depth to win and I just don't believe they have it. They are going to end up running the LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Haslem quintet into the ground and I don't see Bosh, Haslem, Z being able to shut down stars up front in seven game series.

They are still a year away from a title.

True they will struggle to stop stars up front.  Too bad we don't have a star up front for them to struggle with

[moiso]

I very much liked the idea of putting Wade at the point and LeBron at the four alongside two wing players one of whom who would be a stopper. That defensive player would have allowed them to matchup better against teams with a quality wing scorer + allowed them to use those types of lineups more often if they so wished.

LeBron ain't playing much at the 4.  It's one thing to be bigger and stronger than other 3s.  It's another thing to spend a lot of time banging in the post with guys who are the same size or bigger.

mike

Riley's pitch was that he wanted Lebron to be a Magic Johnson type, so to me that means he won't be playing much four.