I know, I know. It depends. But still, if your first order of business was to offer Pierce a contract with what you know now, how much would you be willing to offer?
For me it is more important to get the years locked in than it is the dollars.
The max I would go to is 3 years and I'd try to make them declining in value over the term. Maybe $16M, $15M, $14M.
I'd try to get less, but I doubt he'd settle for less.
That puts him in position to make a minimum of $30M if there's a lockout in year 2 of the deal (better than he'd get by picking up his option then hitting the market in 2012) and it lets us get the gang back together for one more run.
Oh yeah, and I'd find a way to make that last year very flexible in case there are options under the new CBA to buy out players or trade and re-sign them.
If he wants 4 years, we could be in for a long standoff.